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AC14

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23 déc. 2022
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Blues de St-Louis
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Forum: Armchair-GM5 mars 2023 à 0 h 38
Sujet: Big Willy Style
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Koskinen_The_Great</b></div><div>Blues have one of the worst cap situation with long term deals to so many players including raises to Thomas and Kyrou next season.
With Regional Sports Networks going bankrupt.. The cap isnt going up much anytime soon. You're going to have pay to dump a lot of salary. You can say the 2nd is to dump Scandella that would mean Edmundson/Dvorak cost a late 1st. Hardly much especially with the Bues having 3 1sts already in 2023.. A lottery ticket, really. Mtl, most likely, gets a better deal than this but i went low.

They'd easily get a 1st for Edmundson at the TDL and their cap is fine going forward with LTIR on Price whos retiring officially and Gallagher's career in jeopardy.. The Blues have no leverage here. This is more to move out veterans for the Habs and give space to the young players</div></div>

Again why are the blues wanting to dump Scandella? We are not competing next year and have no need to trade future assets for meh players. Again the blues have no need for Dvorak and no need for Edmundson. Trade them to a real contender if you want. Yes we are going to suck and the GM knows it. We are doing a mini rebuild that will take 2-4 years to complete. If we can move some D contracts we are most likely going to keep them. We are also said to be looking for players 25 and under. Neither Edmundson nor Dvorak are in that age group. This trade makes 0 sense for the blues. We will trade the first for younger better players like we were rumored to be in on. Players like Meier and Chychrun, not Dvorak and Edmundson
Forum: Armchair-GM27 févr. 2023 à 16 h 38
Sujet: Rebuilding
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>I'm not adverse to adding Chychrun. I am adverse to paying the amount that he should receive with his contract.

I think whether or not we're in a window yet, we need to explore all options to improve the defense. We have enough pieces up front that are very close. We don't have anything near that on the backend unfortunately.

If it were a different world and Chychrun were an RFA this season and would extend long term I personally would be very happy to move the two firsts we've acquired and a bit more to work out that long term contract with him. I just reserve my doubts that we're going to be any good for the next year or two regardless of what we do, especially if we trade Parayko and replace him with essentially Krug 2.0 in Barrie. This defense could possibly work (in the ACGM) if we had an unbelievably good offense. An offense you can almost gaurantee averages near 4 goals per game. The puck moving part could really throw the team into a fast paced transition team. However, if i'm doing that i'm looking elsewhere aside from Bunting Compher and Donato. And it's not gauranteed to work.

Personally, I just think moving Parayko is a pretty big mistake. We've been asking him to ascent to a 1D and putting him in the matchups to do so yet handcuffing him with terrible partners and giving him the full blame for it. He's not played fantastic this season, probably not to his standards either. But he is furthest from the issue on our blue line.</div></div>

I mean yeah you're saying the same thing I'm saying about Chychrun. If this was a Timo Meier-esque situation and you can trade for a top pairing defenseman and lock him in for 8 years at age 24 then like maybe the acquisition cost makes sense. But Chychrun isn't a guy that's anchoring your defense on a contending team, like Meier anchors your top line. He's a good top 4 defenseman that will be a decent part of it. This is a hard cap league. The teams that are looking to acquire him are paying for the player on that contract. They're not paying for just the player. The reason he costs so much is because of his contract. Teams that can't take advantage of that contract don't have any business acquiring a defenseman like that. And the Blues can't take advantage of that contract. So you can have the conversation, but to me this guy is basically Darnell Nurse making half as much as Darnell Nurse. No one is selling the farm for Darnell Nurse at half price.

As for your take on the offense...I mean I think that's what they tried to do the last couple years, bringing in guys like Krug, Faulk, Leddy and Perunovich. Go high octane offense and hope it holds. It worked for a year when a goalie stood on his head. And then it didn't work. I don't believe it's a sustainable pathway to contention. You need to be able to win multiple ways.

I think no matter what you do you need to build part of the defense through the draft, because there's just no way to get top pairing defensemen otherwise. But when you explore options for improving the defense, I don't think going after name brands like Chychrun is efficient. You need to go after guys who are undervalued by their organization, don't have a pathway onto their teams. Ville Heinola, Reilly Walsh, Erik Brannstrom, Kyle Masters. Colorado, New Jersey, Tampa have had tremendous success in doing this. (Toews, Girard, Cernak, Sieganthaler, Graves, Sergachev were all acquired after they were drafted and some before they were even full time NHL players).

Re: Parayko, yeah, he's not a top pairing defenseman, but I honestly think he's been our best defenseman this year. That thought is probably worth prison time to some Blues fans, but he's the only guy who is good in his own zone. I'm not totally opposed to moving him but I'm not ready to do addition by subtraction on him like a lot of people seem to be. He'd be the last of the term guys I'm worried about moving.
Forum: Armchair-GM27 févr. 2023 à 15 h 24
Sujet: Rebuilding
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>STL9992</b></div><div>There are Some d men in FA this summer that could be picked up to help defensively but with the NTC on every d man it’s hard to think of any options that make it reasonable off-season when strengthening the back end</div></div>

You're right, it is unreasonable to think they could strengthen the blue line in one off season, especially in the "good defensively" column. But why does that make it a smart move to acquire primarily offensive backend threats? Barrie I can understand, you're moving Parayko to the Oilers you need to take cap back, he's cheap-ish and he's gone next year. Fair enough.

But getting Chychrun improves the blue line in an area that wasn't their biggest problem for two years on a team that's going nowhere. You pay a lot of assets to have him cost controlled, and then don't compete while he's cost controlled. You then have to extend him presumably long term in his 27+ age seasons. That is more or less what we did with Krug/Faulk/Parayko (they were a touch older, but not much). Why is that worth it for this team? Why improve the blue line at all, especially with a question mark in goal and lots more up front? Why not just make the picks and build the defense from the ground up?

This ACGM is called "rebuilding" but trading for two cheap years of a good defenseman does not strike me as a rebuilding move.
Forum: Armchair-GM23 févr. 2023 à 12 h 25
Sujet: Blues Time
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>May be jumping the gun here as I’ve responded once. But if i had to guess you’re looking at a package from STL being something around Tor 1 + NYR/DAL 1 + prospect not named Bolduc/Neighbors/Snuggerud (possibly a 3rd instead of a prospect).

I’d venture to guess that what’s being offered by teams fits the mould of the Horvat package, which was really good possibly with a 2nd added from teams who’s first are a bit more projected in the 27-32 range.

I’d expect something like Sharangovich + NJD 23 1st + Muhkmaduhllin being something that’s leading the charge currently just throwing someone out there from NJD perspective. Or something like Car 1st + Drury + Heimosalmi from Carolina. Expecting A tier assets (non top 12 protected 1sts from middling teams or A level prospects) is hard to do. Those assets rightly don’t get moved. It’s a massive risk to a GMs job.</div></div>

I disagree with the potential return but I like your insight/see where you're coming from.
Forum: Armchair-GM21 févr. 2023 à 17 h 8
Sujet: Meier to blues at worst
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>glarson17</b></div><div>Okay for all who seem to be confused, this is the rough makings of a trade, not the whole trade itself. I didn’t look at the blues page to see how sh*tty they lined themselves up next year and beyond. There are stupid trades of a late 1st, 2nd and depth players and that isn’t happening. If that was the ask a team would have Meier by now.</div></div>

Don't worry, Blues could figure out the cap. I just spent 2 seconds on a '23-24 team and a Scandella buyout plus Bolduc + Hofer promotions and Perunovich/Tucker extensions gets you to 20 players and about 4 million bucks leftover. And that's before Armstrong does the inevitable and figures out a way to escape from the top 4 he built.

As for a Meier trade, I agree with you this would be the floor. If it goes to the offseason, the comp would be Fiala which I'd peg around 2 late 1sts. At the deadline they could do better, I figure the Devils will pull the trigger.
Forum: Armchair-GM21 févr. 2023 à 14 h 13
Sujet: Blues acquire Timo Meier the only way I wont be pissed
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>While I agree,

I'm more concerned about the contract for Meier and where that leaves us with as well as the cost to acquire. If we're moving out the two late firsts and a minimal prospect and can sign him to an 8x8 sure by all means do that. But if his contract demands are what i'd imagine they will be around the 9-10m AAV mark then I dont see how we fit him without selling off a defensive piece.

Like the player, don't think this is the time to be doing it though. Although, I guess you are never gauranteed the opportunity to arise again.</div></div>

I think you're right you almost certainly have to sell off a defensive piece to make it work (cap wise as well as just real dollars wise), but I also think you probably need to move several defensive pieces to get the defense moving towards contention level anyway.

If they're able to send one or more of the big three to the shadow realm to get a different mix on the blue line and then use the cap savings to extend Meier, that could go a longer way to getting the team back into it beyond just acquiring an elite winger.
Forum: Armchair-GM17 févr. 2023 à 23 h 37
Forum: Armchair-GM12 févr. 2023 à 10 h 6
Sujet: Go Chefs Great houdly moodly
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RipNasty</b></div><div>Knies is a high end prospect everyone says so. While I don't know how good he'll be, his ceiling is extremely high which is why everyone wants him, and why Dubas doesn't want to give him up. But let's just pretend he's a B prospect so you can get him for nothing eh?</div></div>

I never said he was any kind of throw in prospect at all. I in fact said he has value and rated him as a B+ prospect which is a quite high rating for a guy that hasn’t signed with the team yet and was a second round pick in his draft year.

He has zero pedigree to call him a can’t miss (or A level prospect) he hasn’t played any pro style hockey at this point so it is hard to tell what he will be when the competition level changes, and it is that unknown quantity that means he doesn’t have A level value. Sure any team would like to have a guy that has upside and top 6 power forward potential. But to assume he would carry the value of an A/A+ prospect (reserved for guys who are top 10 picks generally and are seen as imminently entering the league with immediate potential star status) is a major reach is what I am saying.
Forum: Armchair-GM9 févr. 2023 à 16 h 9
Sujet: The Thing About Tarasenko
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AV12</b></div><div>I gotchu, what u think a Buchnevich deal looks like tho, or u think thats a non-starter for STL management</div></div>

If I was the GM I'd be engaging on anyone not named Thomas or Kyrou. I'm not sure (in fact I sincerely doubt) the actual management feels the same way.

But if they are, I think for Buchnevich you're looking at a 1st and Knies, at a minimum. They don't HAVE to trade him, so there's no pressure like there would be with their rentals, so they can ask for the moon.

Really depends on how quickly the Blues think they can turn this ship around. If they think they just need another year to ship out some contracts, then they might keep and extend him. If they think it's going to take longer...as much as I love Buchnevich (and I truly do) you have to wonder if it makes sense to keep him around for all that.