And why are the Blues paying greater value than three 1sts?

Because we're just ONE piece away! Don't address the disaster-class defense, just add a winger.

All 1sts aren't equal, and I excluded the STL 2023 first. What package would you propose that would be competitive for Timo?

Well that's a different conversation haha

You aren’t going to get a competitive offer from Armstrong for Meier. He’s probably going to offer his mark and then move on. It’s how he operates. We aren’t in a position to move Snuggerud, and any of our firsts that are our own in the next 2-3 years.

I feel the return for Timo will disappoint you if you feel he is worth 3 first rounders.

Wingers are the least expensive position trade wise, and Timo provides no savings against the cap due to his contract status.

Whomever ends up with Timo in their lineup will be paying close to max, since they will be buying his best UFA years. In addition, due to his contract structure, he basically has a no trade clause right now, since no team would give up assets without assurity of a contract extension.

Due to this, Timo can essentially pick where he does or does not want to play. This reduces the number of buyers on the market, reducing his price.

Lastly, while he is elite, he is not in the same impact area as individuals such as Mitch Marner, Brad Marchand, Kyle Connor, etc.

I’d be shocked if you got more than a 1st rounder and a B prospect, unless there is a bad contract going your way to increase your haul. I think this is the likely outcome: a bad contract goes back and you get more. Perhaps a 1st, a B prospect, and a roster skater, and a 2nd or so. I don’t know of a contract needing to be offloaded in the league that would be worth more right now.

If he were more affordable cap-wise (such as being 24 years old) and could be traded anywhere (not an rfa with a high qualifier at 26 years old), and was more impactful, then his value would be much higher in the 3 firsts range or possibly even more. This example is if somebody like Mitch Marner hit the market this off-season.

That being said, I hope the devils give you a ton for him.

My blues offer is in my history: Kyrou (bad contract), 1st, Zherenko/Hofer (B prospect), 2nd.

If you compare Matthew Tkachuk, he was worth a 1st, 2 very expensive older players (130 million combined over 8 years, woof), and a B prospect (Schwindt). I personally value Tkachuk above Meier however it is close. This comparable is so close that deviating from it is likely a giant red flag.

May be jumping the gun here as I’ve responded once. But if i had to guess you’re looking at a package from STL being something around Tor 1 + NYR/DAL 1 + prospect not named Bolduc/Neighbors/Snuggerud (possibly a 3rd instead of a prospect).

I’d venture to guess that what’s being offered by teams fits the mould of the Horvat package, which was really good possibly with a 2nd added from teams who’s first are a bit more projected in the 27-32 range.

I’d expect something like Sharangovich + NJD 23 1st + Muhkmaduhllin being something that’s leading the charge currently just throwing someone out there from NJD perspective. Or something like Car 1st + Drury + Heimosalmi from Carolina. Expecting A tier assets (non top 12 protected 1sts from middling teams or A level prospects) is hard to do. Those assets rightly don’t get moved. It’s a massive risk to a GMs job.

I disagree with the potential return but I like your insight/see where you're coming from.

Well, I think the Blues need to make another move before they can seriously go for Meier (Krug leaving painlessly would be great). But there's a timeline where I'd offer two 23 1sts that aren't the Blues own + a solid prospect (essentially the reported ask). I think that's about as far as I'd go, but check back with me if someone like Colorado or Dallas jumps in somehow.

blues say no, remove snuggerudd and its a maybe from them

Very fair. I’m no more informed than you are. Just recently seen guys like Tarasenko and ROR moved without any viable prospects coming in return and then you look at the Horvat return. They aren’t very similar players but their production is very similar over their career and they’re the same age.

Just find it hard to believe one returns a good prospect a top 12 protected 1st and Beauvillier who could very easily be considered a cap dump of some sorts. And the other returns 3 1sts or anything relatively close. Signs are pointing towards tempering expectations a bit.

You pretty much have to move one of the big defense contracts to fit Meier in at all, so getting someone like Meier sort of begets addressing the defense. Besides, Josh Leivo is playing 2RW right now, they truly do need a forward after moving both Tarasenko and O'Reilly and losing Perron, might as well be a really good forward you can lock in for 8 years around the ages of Thomas and Kyrou if the price makes sense.

Forsure, but all 3 were pending UFAs.

I'm more willing than most of the Blues fans on here to entertain the concept of getting Meier with the caveat of that can't be the only thing they do, I'm even willing to say it's worth it even if they're not immediately competitive next year with Meier, but Snuggerud is currently playing like he should have been a top 10 pick in 2022 and the likelihood that they are bad next year is high enough that their own firsts really can't be in play, if only because none of the other suitors are offering picks or prospects relatively that high.

I think the tradeable assets that make sense to pick from for the Blues is (not all of these things, just things to build a potential package out of):

Picks: NYR 1st, TOR 1st, TOR 2nd, STL 2nd
Prospects: Neighbours, Perunovich, Robertsson, maaaaaaaaaaybe Bolduc although I really wouldn't want to.
NHL Roster Players with upside: Toropchenko, Alexandrov

If there isn't a package that can be built out of that that is superior to whatever New Jersey and Carolina can offer, then fair enough, but I think there's enough there that gets the Blues in the conversation and they're not doing anything truly outrageous to hurt their future.



Yeah this is extremely true, they simply can't fit Meier without one of the big defense contracts moving, and I think even without adding Meier that's mostly addition by subtraction at this point.

True, but re-tooling the defense is either going to take (1) time or (2) spending futures, which is why I can't wrap my head around STL joining the race for Meier. Maybe in the offseason if you can grab him similar to how LAK got Fiala, but not now when they have so much more work to do. I'd rather see them wait - and def not saying they'll be as good as Meier - for Snuggerud and Bolduc and for a shake-up on the defense to create the cap space before jumping into a massive deal like this one.

True, but typically the allure of an rfa is it generally costs a bit less to buy out RFA seasons in long term deals. That doesn’t necessarily hold true when a guy is due 10m on the QO.

What the benefit is is it guarantees you another season with the player if you can afford 10m in cap. But either way if you’re paying for Horvat or for Meier you’re alotting 9-10m per year for 8 years for a guy who is very good, but I’m not sure you consider those guys in the top 15-20 players in the league.

Meier isn;t getting 10M per, just like Horvat didn't. He'll probably also get 8.5M or so, and he's more worth it than Horvat is.

Agreed, and I don't see a team trading for him that isn't committed to extending him.

Question for you. If you were him, would you negotiate a deal before hand or get on yourself and take the 10m QO?

Not my question but I'll chime in. I would take the guaranteed contract/$. Betting on yourself is a gamble, one injury away.

It’s really an interesting situation. What I can see is him negotiating a front loaded contract where his base salary year one is 10m or 10m+ and then it’s averages to 9-9.5 over the length of the contract. But on the he other hand I can see him not negotiating a contract aside from a desired location and instead if traded just accepting the QO and hitting FA next year and taking the 10m next season. It’s odd because he essentially has the option to have a NTC but can’t control this season or next with it.