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AC14

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Blues de St-Louis
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Forum: Armchair-GM25 janv. 2023 à 20 h 15
Sujet: Calgary Canuck Blue Flames at the TDL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>Pretty bad dude.

Maybe try simplifying. Acciari, And Barbashev should hold quite a bit of value themselves.

Blues don’t need to dump Scabdella. Especially retaining half of it makes no sense.</div></div>
Best way I can simplify it is with picks:

Tarasenko 50% retained is worth a 1st + 2nd + 3rd
Barbashev’s worth a 2nd + 3rd/4th
Acciari’s worth a 3rd/4th
The question is what’s Scandella’s value with 34% retention? Coming off a hip injury and turning 33 in a month, he’s a gamble, as is Kylington who is out for personal reasons but should be back next season. But then again, who knows for sure if or how many games either play the rest of this season and next.

What do you believe the Blues needs/wants are!?

Do they want Picks that will take years to develop or low cost NHL Prospects so they can pay for next years raises, see how they fit in and hopefully get back to being playoff contenders sooner than later!?

Scandella is just an option, not a necessity, same for Acciari really. Flames need at least 1 Top-6 forward and another Big Shut Down Penalty Killing D-Man. I think Weegar should play RD, so I’m recommending that be an LD. If Scandella can pass a medical, the Flames could shelter him as a 3rd Pairing D-Man
Forum: Armchair-GM24 janv. 2023 à 18 h 24
Sujet: Sell fest
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jimbo1119</b></div><div>Your justification is exactly why 1sts get traded for guys like Giroux, Chiarot, etc. But if you go back through the years it would be interesting to see how many Cup winners did add a rental at TDL….my guess is far fewer than the 50% or so late 1st rounders who become relevant players.

I watch as many NYR games as I can- and I guess as long as Shest is on his game they can be considered “on the cusp” , reality is they are not on the cusp-nor 1 player away.</div></div>

The other thing to say about 1st round picks is that even if you hit you probably won't see that you hit for another two years or so if you're drafting late in the first round, which is not ideal for a team that, on the cusp or not, is sort of in a win-now mode.

I guess the thing that I take issue with is the aversion to spending the assets when my view of the situation- and I'm not a Rangers fan, so you know, what do I know- is this is probably your best time to use those assets. The likelihood of winning after trading for a rental is always going to be low. The likelihood of winning after you don't trade for a rental is also going to be low. Only one team wins, that's just how it works, so I feel like framing it as "so many teams didn't win after spending a 1st round pick on a rental, therefore spending a 1st round pick on a rental is likely going to be a waste" is extremely limiting.

I'm not saying it has to be Tarasenko, but I do feel like if the Rangers stand pat and use both of those 1st round picks in the draft this year, that's malpractice. I more or less agree that they're not one piece away from being bulletproof. But I look at this team- especially their forward group- and I'm wondering how many more kicks at the can their core really has. Panarin at 31, Kreider at 31, Zibanejad at 29, Trocheck at 29. It just seems like, ready or not, you kinda gotta go for it now, because the likelihood of a drop off in fire power in the next two or three years seems pretty high. If you draft with those picks and hit, what's the team going to look like in two or three years when those picks are difference makers?

This is all doubly true considering they have two 1sts. They can spend one and pocket another for the draft and pretty much break-even no matter what happens in the playoffs.
Forum: Armchair-GM16 janv. 2023 à 13 h 50
Sujet: Asking Price for Possible LD and G options
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuckLuck_77</b></div><div>Lol fair enough on your "spin the wheel" take. There's a reason he's the guy I'd go for at the moment. What kind of prospect are the Blues looking for?</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>STLBlues17</b></div><div>No idea tbh</div></div>

I generally think the Blues would go for "best available" but if they're going to target prospects they have to be looking at defensemen, though I don't think Mikkola is going to fetch a defenseman of consequence from the Kings.

From a prospect pool perspective this makes sense- they have Neighbours, Bolduc and Snuggerud as prospects who are all on track to play NHL games in a top-9 role, with a likely top-16 pick in a forward heavy draft coming down the way. They have two goalie prospects putting up good AHL numbers this year in Zherenko and Hofer, with Hofer likely to crack the NHL full time next year. And on defense, they have a highly skilled but often injured and quickly aging Scott Perunovich, and then three guys that are likely to top out as bottom pair defensemen at best in Loof, Buchinger, and Kessel.

From a current roster perspective investing in a young defenseman makes sense too- we have a goalie (love him or, like me, don't) who is locked up for four more years with seemingly unlimited rope in the organization. We have a crop of strong forwards already playing well. And our defense stinks.

Again, Mikkola is probably not the kind of guy who is going to return a prospect of consequence. I feel like if he's traded we're talking picks and/or guys who are included just to make the contract limit work and have little upside. But generally speaking if I was targeting someone from LA, I like Grans and Kirsanov as defense prospects, though they're not having the best seasons in their respective leagues. I like Samuel *Unfortunate slur in his last name*emo too on the forward end of things. Obviously Turcotte and Spence too though don't really see a scenario where that's realistic.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 janv. 2023 à 14 h 48
Sujet: If the Blues DONT Sell
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Fozziebear6</b></div><div>I really hope Army sees that this year's team is more than likely not going to win a cup! 3? I would sell ROR, VT91, Barbie, Accarri and Mikkola. If someone wants Leivo, Greiss or Pitlick move them too. Retain on 3 of those contracts and I feel Army could set up this franchise for success for many years to come.</div></div>

I think Tarasenko is all but certain to be traded, seeing as he's not re-signing here and the Blue are playing fine without him. But the other guys, it might be a toss up. There's a lot of guys on the market, and there's a lot of teams that are (rightfully) more focused on moving as high up in the draft as possible. People are unwilling to move 2023 picks. They should still sell because I don't really want them to re-sign any of these guys but I don't know if there will be the market that will allow Armstrong to radically reshape the franchise like he did in 2017/2018. Really depends on if he can talk up O'Reilly despite his mediocre play and how aggressively Tarasenko will use his NTC against the Blues.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 janv. 2023 à 14 h 57
Sujet: If the Blues DONT Sell
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>Can Sprong Hockey?</div></div>

Sprong scores a lot of goals for the ice time he gets. He's a good player.

But he's a bottom sixer, and the Blues have a lot of young bottom sixers lying around, either as prospects like Neighbours and presumably Bolduc/Snuggerud soon or as "this is what they probably are" guys like Alexadrov, Brown, Toropchenko. The Blues also don't exactly have trouble scoring. If they're going to be kind of a middling team for the next couple years, why invest in a soon-to-be 26 year old bottom six player who scores over giving your younger guys that opportunity? They stand a better chance of actually being here once the Blues build back to contention.

Perunovich might just end up being a less good Torey Krug on a team that already has Torey Krug but considering how poor our defense is, that Perunovich's value has crated after all these injuries, and the fact that we have zero other defense prospects with top four upside in the system the Blues are probably better off just seeing what they got. Seems like the worst case scenario is more or less the status quo, where he either doesn't stick at the NHL or becomes a third pairing offense guy. Even if he becomes Torey Krug 2.0, there's a demand for that kind of player at a lower age and contract that would probably net you more than Sprong in the future.
Forum: Armchair-GM10 janv. 2023 à 12 h 35
Sujet: Since everyone thinks CAR needs a 2C
Yeah I really don't see the Blues parting with O'Reilly for less than a 1st (not necessarily 23 first I don't think) and a decent prospect (not necessarily Scott Morrow level but like...Jack Drury level maybe?). And I think, even with all his struggles this year and his current injury, which are absolutely valid reasons to be skeptical, a team will meet that price. We've seen leadership-y defensive vets go for a lot even if the statistical profile isn't there, and while there's no official timetable the Blues expect O'Reilly to be back before the deadline.

And if no one does, I think the Blues could re-sign him. I don't think they should do that, but I think it's a decent possibility. While the Blues have all these other long term contracts locked in, they're probably going to try and compete beyond this season, so they need assets that are pretty NHL translatable in return for these rentals (ie, high-ish picks they can flip, prospects who are close to NHL level) or there's a good chance they see the rentals (or at least O'Reilly/Barbashev) as part of the solution instead and re-sign them.
Forum: Armchair-GM10 janv. 2023 à 13 h 4
Sujet: Since everyone thinks CAR needs a 2C
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>I get that, but this isn't 2019. Brent Burns won the Norris in 2017 and was acquired for a lot less. He also has more term and has been a better player at probably the one position on the ice equal in value to centers. Looking at last year for example, Florida has up a future 1st and a good but not special prospect in Tippett for Giroux. Giroux had also been healthy and was having a good year. The 2nd is only 5-8 places off where the 1st ended up and it could be lower. Philly do not look like they will ever be good. Suzuki isn't the quality of Tippett, fair enough. However, Fensore and the 3rd aren't throw away items here either. Then you look at ROR's decline, Giroux's higher cap hit, ROR's injury...</div></div>

The issue with a Giroux comparison is that Giroux basically said "send me to Florida or maybe Colorado" and because he had a full NMC the Flyers were kind of tied by that, leading to such a low return. Had he been available to the entire market, Giroux's price is much much higher than what he got. The Blues won't be tied by a NTC unless they give O'Reilly the luxury of picking his destination and abiding by that- which they might.

You can also point to centers with lesser reputations (though better seasons when traded) like Stastny in 2018 and Hayes 2019 who got more than what you're giving up for O'Reilly here, and got more than what Florida gave up for Giroux. You can also point to Toronto trading for Foligno or Tampa trading for Savard or Florida trading for Chiarot- teams that ignored the poor performances of those players and talked themselves into the intangibles and payed high prices for it. Not defending NHL GM brain- those were dumb trades- nor that I'm saying that Carolina would do that, but if we're predicting what GMs will do, I think those are just as valid as what happened with Giroux.

I get that the injury makes fans hesitant but I truly don't think the injury will make much of a difference in the eyes of NHL GMs. He's projected back before the deadline, and LeBrun already reported that some GMs look at the rest he's getting while out as a positive (again, not defending NHL GM brain here). The things that will hurt his market is his own play, which has been mediocre, and whatever happens with Horvat, who I think most teams would rather give up the assets to acquire (and understandably so).
Forum: Armchair-GM7 janv. 2023 à 14 h 55
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals2 janv. 2023 à 17 h 15
Sujet: Central Division Gamble
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>Was the thought process. He has alot of injury issues. And the Avs can't really afford to re-sign him after this season. Wanted to do a 2nd but the Avs don't really have one so i added Acciari and another pick. Mainly wanted to see the pulse on what the value of Byram was. Figured it would be a bit of an outlash if his injury history/ability to re-sign at the end of the season wasn't taken into account.

EDIT: just reread. I didn't realize you were talking about RORs injury and not Byrams. But my train of thought still stands.</div></div>

I think the Avs are gonna give Byram another year to prove he can stay healthy. If that happens, they move Girard. If it doesn't he'll be a deadline piece next year to get a playoff rental.
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals1 janv. 2023 à 22 h 59
Sujet: Dubas ends his career with a bang
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Augustus</b></div><div>I wouldn't say it is quite on the level of "carnage" lol. There is a fair point to be made about two 1st round picks and three possibly high quality prospects, Leafs fans know better. If I had perhaps explained my side better, I would say that the 1st round picks will be essentially high 2nds, from the perspective of the receiving team (as deep a draft as this is projected to be, usually the later 1st rounders blend in with the high 2nd rounders in terms of the value you get from the player). I just couldn't see all three of those assets, particularly Parayko, being exchanged for that. It certainly is a lot for Toronto to give up in terms of their organizational depth in prospects and overall, just didn't see it getting that much, particularly with the retention on Parayko. 8 years of retention is not something GMs are willing to do unless they're getting a player like McDavid, or chance to draft a player like Bedard, in return, and they know they'll have the space to do it because they're going full rebuild and trading their high-salaried veterans for futures. I bet the Blues don't blow it up just yet. They can afford to wait and see about next season on a guy like Parayko.</div></div>


As I noted, the massive amount of retention pretty much eats up the two 1sts. And those three prospects are B or maybe B+ at absolute best. And they're all tiny, which is rarely going to interest the Blues. And then there's all the trash they don;t need, which is still more millions in cap and salary expense, a ka more subsidization of Toronto's Cup ambitions. And then you have to factor in the cost of replacing Parayko. It's absolute carnage, pure and undiluted.