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2021-22 NHL Off-season Discussion Thread - #3

28 juin 2022 à 15 h 31
#901
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Goalie cards now available on https://upsidedownhockey.herokuapp.com/

PQm23on.png

All data is from moneypuck and uses GSAx/60 as a percentile of the goalie population with min 10 GP for the overall rating in the top left corner

Low Danger, Medium Danger, and High Danger percentiles/z scores are all derived from GSAx/shot for each danger level which also uses a 10GP min cutoff

Rebound control percentiles/z scores is calculated based on rebounds above expected per 60, also with a 10GP min cutoff

I also have data on puck freezes and expected freezes but I didnt like how it looked in the chart, I might add that later. I could also add different charts for 5v5, penalty kill, etc

I just made these in a couple hours today so there may be some bugs. Im also working on getting better image quality like the one posted here^ (Old images Ive posted have used the "upload to imgur" button which seems to compress the image which significantly reduces quality)
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28 juin 2022 à 16 h 24
#902
Go leafs go
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Quoting: aadoyle
mmm Wrights good but if you look at Slavkovsky's resume its better especially this year

Wright has only played against Kids his age. Slav has played in multiple adult leagues thats a big advantage today and for Hughes that could bring MTL one step closer to being successful again

Got a feeling if Slav played in the OHL he would have gotten 100+ points in 50 games

So while its anyone's guess I wouldnt put it passed Hughes to draft him over Wright

As just imagine Slav-Suzuki-Caufield


“Playing with men” doesn’t mean that much. Just ask Kakko is his biggest fan @Devil .
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28 juin 2022 à 16 h 26
#903
Bo Horvat enjoyer
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Quoting: UpsideDownQue
Goalie cards now available on https://upsidedownhockey.herokuapp.com/

PQm23on.png

All data is from moneypuck and uses GSAx/60 as a percentile of the goalie population with min 10 GP for the overall rating in the top left corner

Low Danger, Medium Danger, and High Danger percentiles/z scores are all derived from GSAx/shot for each danger level which also uses a 10GP min cutoff

Rebound control percentiles/z scores is calculated based on rebounds above expected per 60, also with a 10GP min cutoff

I also have data on puck freezes and expected freezes but I didnt like how it looked in the chart, I might add that later. I could also add different charts for 5v5, penalty kill, etc

I just made these in a couple hours today so there may be some bugs. Im also working on getting better image quality like the one posted here^ (Old images Ive posted have used the "upload to imgur" button which seems to compress the image which significantly reduces quality)


Awesome stuff!
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28 juin 2022 à 16 h 38
#904
Hakuna Matata
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Quoting: DirtyDangle
what were stastnys comments?


I just want to win im getting older and dont know how long I got left to play
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28 juin 2022 à 16 h 44
#905
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Quoting: SevenLeg
Free agents usually have two or three destinations in mind when they hit FA. Some lesser guys go with the highest bidders, but generally, guys like Gaudreau and Forsberg are choosing their destinations, not the other way around. That's why FA lists and tradeboard lists are two separate things. If you trade for a player already under contract, not only you already have contract certainty but you also have the guy's rights - you're sure that you have your guy on a pre-existing deal. Some lesser markets can have a hard time acquiring free agents and have no choice but to trade for players instead of ridiculously overpaying the free agent to the point where the cost/benefits ratio is worse than trading assets for a player. With hindsight, I bet the Flyers would rather have traded a few picks/prospects for a center instead of signing Hayes to that deal.

Edit: A team that has a 3ish year contention window (ex. the Bruins) would probably rather trade futures for a player with three years left instead of giving 7 years in FA to a player of the same tier.


If Anderson had 2 years left on his deal, you’d have a point. But he has 5 years taking him to his age 33 season. His salary is also more than his cap hit, he’s owed 30.5 mill over the next 5 years. A team is better off signing any one of these players to a 5-6 year deal than giving up assets for Anderson.

Burakovsky (6 mill x 6)
Copp (5.5 mill x 5-6 years)
Marchment (4.5 mill x 4-5 years)
Mikheyev ( 5 mill x 4-5 years)
Niederreter (5.5 mill x 5)
Rakell (5 mill x 5)
Vatrano (3.5-4 mill x 4)

All better than Anderson and no one except maybe Burakovsky would want 7 years.
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28 juin 2022 à 16 h 49
#906
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Quoting: aadoyle
I just want to win im getting older and dont know how long I got left to play


Avs reunion
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28 juin 2022 à 16 h 58
#907
Hop on the Slaftrain
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Quoting: Db1899
If Anderson had 2 years left on his deal, you’d have a point. But he has 5 years taking him to his age 33 season. His salary is also more than his cap hit, he’s owed 30.5 mill over the next 5 years. A team is better off signing any one of these players to a 5-6 year deal than giving up assets for Anderson.

Burakovsky (6 mill x 6)
Copp (5.5 mill x 5-6 years)
Marchment (4.5 mill x 4-5 years)
Mikheyev ( 5 mill x 4-5 years)
Niederreter (5.5 mill x 5)
Rakell (5 mill x 5)
Vatrano (3.5-4 mill x 4)

All better than Anderson and no one except maybe Burakovsky would want 7 years.


I'm pretty confident teams and front offices value Anderson and his playstyle more than those players save for Copp and Burakovsky. Not many players in the league have his skillset-combination of speed and size but I won't get into that. Enough Anderson talks for today.
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28 juin 2022 à 17 h 4
#908
EklundCelebriniSmith
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28 juin 2022 à 17 h 6
#909
do not Devil my ass
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Did you guys say your daily prayer to our God defensive dman Jonas Siegenthaler yet?


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28 juin 2022 à 17 h 6
#910
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Quoting: SevenLeg
I'm pretty confident teams and front offices value Anderson and his playstyle more than those players save for Copp and Burakovsky. Not many players in the league have his skillset-combination of speed and size but I won't get into that. Enough Anderson talks for today.


Both Marchment and Niederreter have a combination of speed and size. Most teams if given the option of giving up a 1st for Anderson or signing Marchment or Niederreter , they would choose the latter.
28 juin 2022 à 17 h 13
#911
Hop on the Slaftrain
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Quoting: Db1899
Both Marchment and Niederreter have a combination of speed and size. Most teams if given the option of giving up a 1st for Anderson or signing Marchment or Niederreter , they would choose the latter.


I'll believe it when there are the same reports of significant interest and serious offers for either of them like there are for Anderson.
28 juin 2022 à 17 h 14
#912
retired
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Quoting: aadoyle
I just want to win im getting older and dont know how long I got left to play


i wonder if the avs would take him back.
28 juin 2022 à 17 h 40
#913
Hakuna Matata
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Quoting: DirtyDangle
i wonder if the avs would take him back.


Avs, Leafs, Boston, Carolina should all be eyeing him rn

1 year 3 to 4 mill
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28 juin 2022 à 17 h 46
#914
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Quoting: SevenLeg
I'll believe it when there are the same reports of significant interest and serious offers for either of them like there are for Anderson.


You argued that some lesser markets have no choice but to trade for players. I’m saying there are a lot of wingers who provide more value than Anderson (and a similar play style) who can be signed in free agency for around the same AAV/term. Teams like WPG, EDM, and NYI who have trouble acquiring big time free agents would have no problem signing one of those FA wingers.

There has been reports that teams are interested in Anderson and Hughes has set a high price, but there have been no reliable reports of teams offering a 1st rd pick
28 juin 2022 à 17 h 52
#915
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Quoting: Tintin
Did you guys say your daily prayer to our God defensive dman Jonas Siegenthaler yet?



At least Siegenthaler was 4th in ATOI among Devils D (north of 20 mins) and 3rd in SHTOI (although by a negligible amount, Severson and Graves were both around 2:30 per game too). Like, I wouldn’t have him on a list with the likes of Pelech, Toews, McAvoy, and Slavin, but at least he was a top 4 guy. Pettersson is a strange addition given he had less than 16 minutes of ice time per night (#5 among Pens regulars on the blueline) and basically no PK time. Like, Zadorov and Gudbranson were good 3rd pair defensive guys and both of them played big PK minutes. I wouldn’t say they should be on this list, but they deserve to be on it more than Pettersson lol
28 juin 2022 à 17 h 55
#916
Go leafs go
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Quoting: Alfie11
At least Siegenthaler was 4th in ATOI among Devils D (north of 20 mins) and 3rd in SHTOI (although by a negligible amount, Severson and Graves were both around 2:30 per game too). Like, I wouldn’t have him on a list with the likes of Pelech, Toews, McAvoy, and Slavin, but at least he was a top 4 guy. Pettersson is a strange addition given he had less than 16 minutes of ice time per night (#5 among Pens regulars on the blueline) and basically no PK time. Like, Zadorov and Gudbranson were good 3rd pair defensive guys and both of them played big PK minutes. I wouldn’t say they should be on this list, but they deserve to be on it more than Pettersson lol


Brodie is better than all of Petterson, Gudbranson and
Zadarov.
28 juin 2022 à 18 h 4
#917
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Quoting: Saskleaf
Brodie is better than all of Petterson, Gudbranson and
Zadarov.

yeah duh lol
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28 juin 2022 à 18 h 22
#918
Go leafs go
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Quoting: Alfie11
yeah duh lol


Well, he’s not on that list and I thought it was a bit strange, that’s all.
28 juin 2022 à 18 h 48
#919
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If the Devils end up getting Shane Wright, they should trade for Puljujarvi and go with this top 9 next season

Bratt-Hughes-Puljujarvi
Holtz-Hischier-Mercer
Sharan-Wright-Johnson
28 juin 2022 à 19 h 15
#920
Speak of the Devil
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Quoting: Tintin
Did you guys say your daily prayer to our God defensive dman Jonas Siegenthaler yet?




Common Tintin W
28 juin 2022 à 22 h 9
#921
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Something interesting I heard debated briefly on a podcast—is Corey Perry a hall of famer? He doesn’t quite have the rate stats (over 400 goals and 850 points is meh for a HHOF case, and he’s not gonna hit 1k points and likely not even 450 goals), but he has won almost literally everything there is to win:

- OHL Cup Champion (and most points)
- U17 Bronze (the only thing he didn’t win, and he still medalled)
- U18 Gold
- OHL Champion
- Memorial Cup Champion
- Basically every award in the OHL, CHL, and Memorial Cup lol
- WJC Gold
- Stanley Cup Champion
- 2x Olympic Gold
- Hart
- Rocket Richard
- World Championship Gold
- World Cup Gold

Like, this is right up there with Scott Niedermayer for one of the most impressive trophy cases in terms of breadth of all time. He also fits the narrative some people like to go with (Matt Larkin of The Hockey News springs to mind but I think some others use the same logic) of “was he a top 5 player at his position for a period of 5 years?” and like, yeah, he kinda was lol, he got at least some end of year all star team votes in 8 consecutive seasons, including two 1st team all star finishes (and a Hart). One of the best power forwards and scoring wingers of his generation in his prime, without a doubt. I think he’s got a very strong case based on trophy cabinet alone. I hope that falling off towards the end of his career and turning into the “loser” (losing 3 straight finals with 3 different teams) isn’t held against him, because honestly it’s kind of impressive that he reinvented himself and is able to remain a solid contributor on a contender, and it’s really hard to call him a loser when most players never reach the Cup final, let alone 4 times with 4 different teams, including (crucially for the HHOF case because they hate guys without rings) a victory in one of them. And he’s won quite literally every other thing ever, almost always as a key contributor (bunch of tournament MVPs and the like in there).
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28 juin 2022 à 22 h 10
#922
KFTW
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Quoting: Tintin
Did you guys say your daily prayer to our God defensive dman Jonas Siegenthaler yet?




Zub snubbed
28 juin 2022 à 22 h 11
#923
Hop on the Slaftrain
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Quoting: Alfie11
Something interesting I heard debated briefly on a podcast—is Corey Perry a hall of famer? He doesn’t quite have the rate stats (over 400 goals and 850 points is meh for a HHOF case, and he’s not gonna hit 1k points and likely not even 450 goals), but he has won almost literally everything there is to win:

- OHL Cup Champion (and most points)
- U17 Bronze (the only thing he didn’t win, and he still medalled)
- U18 Gold
- OHL Champion
- Memorial Cup Champion
- Basically every award in the OHL, CHL, and Memorial Cup lol
- WJC Gold
- Stanley Cup Champion
- 2x Olympic Gold
- Hart
- Rocket Richard
- World Championship Gold
- World Cup Gold

Like, this is right up there with Scott Niedermayer for one of the most impressive trophy cases in terms of breadth of all time. He also fits the narrative some people like to go with (Matt Larkin of The Hockey News springs to mind but I think some others use the same logic) of “was he a top 5 player at his position for a period of 5 years?” and like, yeah, he kinda was lol, he got at least some end of year all star team votes in 8 consecutive seasons, including two 1st team all star finishes (and a Hart). One of the best power forwards and scoring wingers of his generation in his prime, without a doubt. I think he’s got a very strong case based on trophy cabinet alone. I hope that falling off towards the end of his career and turning into the “loser” (losing 3 straight finals with 3 different teams) isn’t held against him, because honestly it’s kind of impressive that he reinvented himself and is able to remain a solid contributor on a contender, and it’s really hard to call him a loser when most players never reach the Cup final, let alone 4 times with 4 different teams, including (crucially for the HHOF case because they hate guys without rings) a victory in one of them. And he’s won quite literally every other thing ever, almost always as a key contributor (bunch of tournament MVPs and the like in there).


Perry is really an interesting HOF case. Even though he's won everything there is to win, I feel like his peak didn't last long enough compared to most HOFers.
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28 juin 2022 à 22 h 13
#924
EklundCelebriniSmith
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Quoting: Alfie11
Something interesting I heard debated briefly on a podcast—is Corey Perry a hall of famer? He doesn’t quite have the rate stats (over 400 goals and 850 points is meh for a HHOF case, and he’s not gonna hit 1k points and likely not even 450 goals), but he has won almost literally everything there is to win:

- OHL Cup Champion (and most points)
- U17 Bronze (the only thing he didn’t win, and he still medalled)
- U18 Gold
- OHL Champion
- Memorial Cup Champion
- Basically every award in the OHL, CHL, and Memorial Cup lol
- WJC Gold
- Stanley Cup Champion
- 2x Olympic Gold
- Hart
- Rocket Richard
- World Championship Gold
- World Cup Gold

Like, this is right up there with Scott Niedermayer for one of the most impressive trophy cases in terms of breadth of all time. He also fits the narrative some people like to go with (Matt Larkin of The Hockey News springs to mind but I think some others use the same logic) of “was he a top 5 player at his position for a period of 5 years?” and like, yeah, he kinda was lol, he got at least some end of year all star team votes in 8 consecutive seasons, including two 1st team all star finishes (and a Hart). One of the best power forwards and scoring wingers of his generation in his prime, without a doubt. I think he’s got a very strong case based on trophy cabinet alone. I hope that falling off towards the end of his career and turning into the “loser” (losing 3 straight finals with 3 different teams) isn’t held against him, because honestly it’s kind of impressive that he reinvented himself and is able to remain a solid contributor on a contender, and it’s really hard to call him a loser when most players never reach the Cup final, let alone 4 times with 4 different teams, including (crucially for the HHOF case because they hate guys without rings) a victory in one of them. And he’s won quite literally every other thing ever, almost always as a key contributor (bunch of tournament MVPs and the like in there).


Oh the fact Perry has been able to reinvent himself in a reduced role with less ice time (4th line) and has still been able to be noteworthy is impressive and often overlooked.
Even more so is that he’s done so in the playoffs.

If you’re in a cup run situation - Perry on your 4th line for his AAV is irreplaceable asset.
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28 juin 2022 à 22 h 44
#925
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Quoting: Alfie11
Something interesting I heard debated briefly on a podcast—is Corey Perry a hall of famer? He doesn’t quite have the rate stats (over 400 goals and 850 points is meh for a HHOF case, and he’s not gonna hit 1k points and likely not even 450 goals), but he has won almost literally everything there is to win:

- OHL Cup Champion (and most points)
- U17 Bronze (the only thing he didn’t win, and he still medalled)
- U18 Gold
- OHL Champion
- Memorial Cup Champion
- Basically every award in the OHL, CHL, and Memorial Cup lol
- WJC Gold
- Stanley Cup Champion
- 2x Olympic Gold
- Hart
- Rocket Richard
- World Championship Gold
- World Cup Gold

Like, this is right up there with Scott Niedermayer for one of the most impressive trophy cases in terms of breadth of all time. He also fits the narrative some people like to go with (Matt Larkin of The Hockey News springs to mind but I think some others use the same logic) of “was he a top 5 player at his position for a period of 5 years?” and like, yeah, he kinda was lol, he got at least some end of year all star team votes in 8 consecutive seasons, including two 1st team all star finishes (and a Hart). One of the best power forwards and scoring wingers of his generation in his prime, without a doubt. I think he’s got a very strong case based on trophy cabinet alone. I hope that falling off towards the end of his career and turning into the “loser” (losing 3 straight finals with 3 different teams) isn’t held against him, because honestly it’s kind of impressive that he reinvented himself and is able to remain a solid contributor on a contender, and it’s really hard to call him a loser when most players never reach the Cup final, let alone 4 times with 4 different teams, including (crucially for the HHOF case because they hate guys without rings) a victory in one of them. And he’s won quite literally every other thing ever, almost always as a key contributor (bunch of tournament MVPs and the like in there).


Do I think Perry should go in the HOF, no not really, more hall of very good but considering who else has been inducted into the HOF, he has a decent shot
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