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2021-22 NHL Off-season Discussion Thread - #3

28 juin 2022 à 14 h 20
#876
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Quoting: Db1899
There is a lot of risk with Slafkovsky. He has a high ceiling but I’m not sure if he reaches it. It’s more likely he’s the next Puljujarvi than Miko Rantanen. Wright has the higher IQ, better goal scorer and passer. I don’t think it’s that close, Wright should be the clear #1


I mean when your in the OHL vs. Liiga of course your gonna score more

As I said put Slav in the OHL he probs has 100 points in 55 games

Cause if we look at Liiga's version of the OHL Slav had 52 points in 39 games for TPS U18
28 juin 2022 à 14 h 22
#877
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Quoting: aadoyle
I mean when your in the OHL vs. Liiga of course your gonna score more


Yeah but Wright is still the better goal scorer. I have no doubt he’ll score more goals in the NHL than slafkovsky.
28 juin 2022 à 14 h 22
#878
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Quoting: aadoyle
I mean when your in the OHL vs. Liiga of course your gonna score more


Assuming both are equals, you draft the winger if it's the last one piece you need (kinda like the Devils). If you still have multiple holes to fill over the next few years, you pick the center.
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28 juin 2022 à 14 h 25
#879
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Quoting: Db1899
Yeah but Wright is still the better goal scorer. I have no doubt he’ll score more goals in the NHL than slafkovsky.


Slaf has the higher ceiling but Wright feels like he has a good shot at being a 60-75 point center who is good in all 3 zones. Him and Zuki could a dominant 1-2 center punch defensively and offensively. Habs shouldn’t pass that up. This does feel like a draft year where the best player in 10-15 wasn’t drafted 1st overall though
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28 juin 2022 à 14 h 27
#880
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Quoting: AndrewLadd
Slaf has the higher ceiling but Wright feels like he has a good shot at being a 60-75 point center who is good in all 3 zones. Him and Zuki could a dominant 1-2 center punch defensively and offensively. Habs shouldn’t pass that up. This does feel like a draft year where the best player in 10-15 wasn’t drafted 1st overall though


I think the most likely outcome is Slaf is one of those 50 pt wingers who can drive possession. Ideal situation he’s the 3rd best player on a top 6 line. I would take him in the 6-10 range, not top 3.
28 juin 2022 à 14 h 29
#881
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Quoting: SevenLeg
Assuming both are equals, you draft the winger if it's the last one piece you need (kinda like the Devils). If you still have multiple holes to fill over the next few years, you pick the center.


True

I see where Wright would fit in as the 3c for MTL till he gets more comfortable. That said Slavkovsky also works for making a super line Slav-Suzuki-Caufield allowing MTL to address the C spot via trade (PLD, Dach, etc.)

Were just gonna have to wait and see what Hughes decides. As one way or another he gets a solid player
28 juin 2022 à 14 h 30
#882
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Quoting: aadoyle
Apparently Jets management is in full blown panic mode rn

As with Stasney's recent comments, PLD's desire to leave in 2 years, Scheifele indirectly saying he wants out, and Wheeler also wanting out WPG is losing bodies fast

But hey if it gets the Leafs one step closer to getting Hellebuyck **** yeah BLOW IT TO SMITHERINES


The Cheveldayoff extension was mind-boggling the day it was inked, now it looks absolutely atrocious.

Like honestly, I wouldn't blame ownership if they decided to save face and tore up the extension. You can't extend a guy already on questionable ground with the notion the team is close and playoff contention is *right there* and have him forced into becoming the maestro behind dismantling the core of the team the SAME summer.
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28 juin 2022 à 14 h 34
#883
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Quoting: Db1899
I think the most likely outcome is Slaf is one of those 50 pt wingers who can drive possession. Ideal situation he’s the 3rd best player on a top 6 line. I would take him in the 6-10 range, not top 3.


What are your thoughts on Savoie, he’s a top 3-5 player for me. Only players I’d pick over him are Wright and Nemec
28 juin 2022 à 14 h 34
#884
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Quoting: aadoyle
True

I could see where Wright would fit in as the 3c for MTL till he gets more comfortable. That said Slavkovsky would make for an amazing first line Slav-Suzuki-Caufield and MTL could address the C spot via trade (PLD, Dach, etc.)

Guess were just gonna have to wait and see what Hughes decides. As one way or another he gets a solid player


In a perfect world, Dubois is signed in FA and not acquired via trade as it gives the team some time to evaluate if Dubois is really needed depending on Wright's progression. I don't think either should be on the team next year, but if Wright is, I'd put him on the 2nd line with Dvorak on LW until Wright is acclimated to NHL faceoffs and low-end fourth-line grinder Anderson on right-wing to give him space in the o-zone.
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28 juin 2022 à 14 h 39
#885
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Quoting: SevenLeg
Assuming both are equals, you draft the winger if it's the last one piece you need (kinda like the Devils). If you still have multiple holes to fill over the next few years, you pick the center.


I did a bit on his weighted NHLe forever ago in an attempt to "linearize" both men against each other and the rest of their class. Last I checked, Wright maintains the third-highest NHLe of the entire 2022 class (35.237; Dumais and Yurov are higher at 37.855 and 36.707 respectively) but already comes with established pedigree. The likes of Savoie, Cooley, Howard, Geekie, and McGroarty all feature higher NHLe's than Slafkovsky. The caveat is that Juraj put up a majority of those numbers against men or top-tier competition of his peers. It's going to be interesting to see how it all pans out.

I don't know if I agree with your take on the Devils' philosophy but I do recognize that they're the only team in the top three with a legitimate case to take Juraj.

I still rate both Nemec and Jiricek ahead of Slavkovsky and Cooley and I fail to see why any of the teams picking in the top five shouldn't prioritize one of the rearguards. I'm still not convinced Arizona should be investing their pick on Cooley but we've beaten this argument to death.
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28 juin 2022 à 14 h 40
#886
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Quoting: AndrewLadd
What are your thoughts on Savoie, he’s a top 3-5 player for me. Only players I’d pick over him are Wright and Nemec


Savoie funny as he went from top 10 to bottom 20 back to top 10 in the span of 4 months
28 juin 2022 à 14 h 40
#887
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Quoting: SevenLeg
In a perfect world, Dubois is signed in FA and not acquired via trade as it gives the team some time to evaluate if Dubois is really needed depending on Wright's progression. I don't think either should be on the team next year, but if Wright is, I'd put him on the 2nd line with Dvorak on LW until Wright is acclimated to NHL faceoffs and low-end fourth-line grinder Anderson on right-wing to give him space in the o-zone.


Wouldnt be surprised with how crazy things are in Wpg they get significantly less value for PLD then people expect
28 juin 2022 à 14 h 41
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Why is it that only Habs fans think Anderson is a valuable piece that other teams should acquire at an exorbitant price?

Look, I'm all for the arguments re: analytics and his intangibles but these kinds of discussions should at least have some sense of parity to them. There's been zero dialogue from fans of other franchises beyond "we don't want to pay that much for Anderson". Quote the stupidity of NHL managements until the cows come home to roost but I've seen nothing suggesting that any fan base outside of the bleu blanc et rouge is actively pining for Josh's services.


Whenever there is a rumor, even if it’s from an unreliable source, Habs fans immediately jump on it and feel entitled to get certain picks/players.

Anderson will definitely return more than he should, I think he’ll get traded for a few 2nd rd picks, but there is no chance he’s returning a mid 1st and young roster player. I’ve even seen some made up comments from @drivefor25 that Barzal and Anderson lit it up at worlds. Anything to justify getting a crazy return
28 juin 2022 à 14 h 41
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Quoting: AndrewLadd
What are your thoughts on Savoie, he’s a top 3-5 player for me. Only players I’d pick over him are Wright and Nemec


I'd have him 5-10. I think he *just* misses the cut because of his size. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him slide out of the top-10 for that exact reason. Don't often see mighty mice going with those premium picks. The Sharks might actually trip over themselves running to the podium to pick him.
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28 juin 2022 à 14 h 42
#890
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Quoting: Db1899
Whenever there is a rumor, even if it’s from an unreliable source, Habs fans immediately jump on it and feel entitled to get certain picks/players.

Anderson will definitely return more than he should, I think he’ll get traded for a few 2nd rd picks, but there is no chance he’s returning a mid 1st and young roster player. I’ve even seen some made up comments from drivefor25 that Barzal and Anderson lit it up at worlds. Anything to justify getting a crazy return


I seem to recall that this is a windfall of the Habs media and less their fanbase. Something to do with licensing or whatever that allows literally anyone or their dog to publish stuff no matter how far-fetched.
28 juin 2022 à 14 h 45
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
I did a bit on his weighted NHLe forever ago in an attempt to "linearize" both men against each other and the rest of their class. Last I checked, Wright maintains the third-highest NHLe of the entire 2022 class (35.237; Dumais and Yurov are higher at 37.855 and 36.707 respectively) but already comes with established pedigree. The likes of Savoie, Cooley, Howard, Geekie, and McGroarty all feature higher NHLe's than Slafkovsky. The caveat is that Juraj put up a majority of those numbers against men or top-tier competition of his peers. It's going to be interesting to see how it all pans out.

I don't know if I agree with your take on the Devils' philosophy but I do recognize that they're the only team in the top three with a legitimate case to take Juraj.

I still rate both Nemec and Jiricek ahead of Slavkovsky and Cooley and I fail to see why any of the teams picking in the top five shouldn't prioritize one of the rearguards. I'm still not convinced Arizona should be investing their pick on Cooley but we've beaten this argument to death.


I think Arizona should definitely invest their pick in Logan Cooley - they need a spectacular center that is shown on highlight reels to make them one step closer to relevancy. If Cooley turns out to be a Brayden Point-type of center and Nemec turns out to be an Aaron Ekblad/Alex Pietrangelo that provides slightly better on-ice value than Cooley, they still need to draft Cooley imo because it's those players that make casual fans turn on the TV.
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28 juin 2022 à 14 h 46
#892
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
I seem to recall that this is a windfall of the Habs media and less their fanbase. Something to do with licensing or whatever that allows literally anyone or their dog to publish stuff no matter how far-fetched.


It’s both. Someone will tweet that a team offered a 1st for Anderson, than multiple accounts will publish an article with a headline like “Hughes reportedly receives major trade offer for Anderson”. Then the Fans start blowing up Twitter and ACGM with ridiculous trade proposals and why a team would be lucky to give up their next 4 1sts for Anderson
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28 juin 2022 à 14 h 50
#893
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Quoting: SevenLeg
I think Arizona should definitely invest their pick in Logan Cooley - they need a spectacular center that is shown on highlight reels to make them one step closer to relevancy. If Cooley turns out to be a Brayden Point-type of center and Nemec turns out to be an Aaron Ekblad/Alex Pietrangelo that provides slightly better on-ice value than Cooley, they still need to draft Cooley imo because it's those players that make casual fans turn on the TV.


Every piece of math I see regarding Cooley suggests he's Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, not Brayden Point. Right down to size, NHLe, and predicted star outcomes. The Point comparison is being overblown from like one or two sources.

They aren't getting a TV draw anytime soon, Cooley or not. There are far better centermen that the Coyotes will have access to next year: if either Nemec or Jiricek are available they should not pass them up as there aren't defenders (righties at that too) available like either man next season. I've said it once and I'll reiterate until I'm blue in the face: teams with long rebuilds ahead of themselves that only consider each draft in a vacuum are destined to fail. Give either rearguard an extra year of seasoning before one of those generational pivots finds themselves playing at ASU the following season.

They'll get a TV audience when they move to Houston.
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28 juin 2022 à 14 h 54
#894
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Why is it that only Habs fans think Anderson is a valuable piece that other teams should acquire at an exorbitant price?

Look, I'm all for the arguments re: analytics and his intangibles but these kinds of discussions should at least have some sense of parity to them. There's been zero dialogue from fans of other franchises beyond "we don't want to pay that much for Anderson". Quote the stupidity of NHL managements until the cows come home to roost but I've seen nothing suggesting that any fan base outside of the bleu blanc et rouge is actively pining for Josh's services.


Because fans think it's so easy to get a Fiala or a DeBrincat and that there won't be 31 other teams actively pining for the same star if they're made available. Teams often have no choice but to opt for Plan C or Plan D, which is where Anderson should rank considering the list of potentially available forwards. So, since many fans don't realize that it's nearly impossible to get a lethal top line forward on an amazing deal like Nikolaj Ehlers, they act like all the other options that present inconveniences (age, contract, handedness, etc.) are no-nos, but in reality, those players are still dealt and the perfect options are generally kept. Best we can do as fans is listen to reliable insiders like LeBrun or Seravalli when they say there's significant interest and serious offers for Anderson.
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28 juin 2022 à 14 h 56
#895
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Quoting: SevenLeg
Because fans think it's so easy to get a Fiala or a DeBrincat and that there won't be 31 other teams actively pining for the same star if they're made available. Teams often have no choice but to opt for Plan C or Plan D, which is where Anderson should rank considering the list of potentially available forwards. So, since many fans don't realize that it's nearly impossible to get a lethal top line forward on an amazing deal like Nikolaj Ehlers, they act like all the other options that present inconveniences (age, contract, handedness, etc.) are no-nos, but in reality, those players are still dealt and the perfect options are generally kept. Best we can do as fans is listen to reliable insiders like LeBrun or Seravalli when they say there's significant interest and serious offers for Anderson.


What the hell are you doing comparing Josh Anderson to Kevin Fiala and Alex Debrincat?
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28 juin 2022 à 15 h 0
#896
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
What the hell are you doing comparing Josh Anderson to Kevin Fiala and Alex Debrincat?


I'd suggest reading again.

I said every fanbase think they have a shot at Fiala and DeBrincat until they realize their team is battling with 31 other teams for the star player's services so teams often have to go lower in their priority list. Anderson should be lower in a team's priority list in terms of available forwards, but in reality it's much more probable to land an Anderson than a DeBrincat.
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28 juin 2022 à 15 h 5
#897
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Quoting: Devil




sounds like scouts really dont like wrights work ethic/competitiveness
28 juin 2022 à 15 h 6
#898
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Quoting: aadoyle
Apparently Jets management is in full blown panic mode rn

As with Stasney's recent comments, PLD's desire to leave in 2 years, Scheifele indirectly saying he wants out, and Wheeler also wanting out WPG is losing bodies fast

But hey if it gets the Leafs one step closer to getting Hellebuyck **** yeah BLOW IT TO SMITHERINES


what were stastnys comments?
28 juin 2022 à 15 h 9
#899
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Quoting: SevenLeg
but in reality it's much more probable to land an Anderson than a DeBrincat.


Yeah at a far too-similar acquisition cost if the reports are to be believed.

If I'm a GM and I miss the Fiala/DeBrincat train, then I'm looking to Gaudreau, Forsberg, even Kane before paying what the rumoured ask is. He's not in that calibre of player. Half of the Jets are supposedly available. Paying a premium for Josh is something only Habs fans are currently interested. It doesn't make sense.
28 juin 2022 à 15 h 26
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Yeah at a far too-similar acquisition cost if the reports are to be believed.

If I'm a GM and I miss the Fiala/DeBrincat train, then I'm looking to Gaudreau, Forsberg, even Kane before paying what the rumoured ask is. He's not in that calibre of player. Half of the Jets are supposedly available. Paying a premium for Josh is something only Habs fans are currently interested. It doesn't make sense.


Free agents usually have two or three destinations in mind when they hit FA. Some lesser guys go with the highest bidders, but generally, guys like Gaudreau and Forsberg are choosing their destinations, not the other way around. That's why FA lists and tradeboard lists are two separate things. If you trade for a player already under contract, not only you already have contract certainty but you also have the guy's rights - you're sure that you have your guy on a pre-existing deal. Some lesser markets can have a hard time acquiring free agents and have no choice but to trade for players instead of ridiculously overpaying the free agent to the point where the cost/benefits ratio is worse than trading assets for a player. With hindsight, I bet the Flyers would rather have traded a few picks/prospects for a center instead of signing Hayes to that deal.

Edit: A team that has a 3ish year contention window (ex. the Bruins) would probably rather trade futures for a player with three years left instead of giving 7 years in FA to a player of the same tier.
 
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