I think this is pretty realistic and frankly, I would be pretty happy with this TDL if this happened.
Quoting: CD282
This looks about right.
Regarding Chiarot, how many contenders are interested in renting a defenseman this spring? And how many of those teams would buy Chiarot before Lindholm, Giordano, Klingberg or Manson? Not to mention Chychrun... it's a buyer's market. If the Habs hold out for a 1st+, they might just be left holding the bag.
I think the discrepancy is in how much MORE those guys cost than Chiarot. ANA isn't just asking for a 1st for Lindholm. They're also asking for a top prospect too, maybe more. Same with Klingberg. I think teams are way more willing to "settle" for a lesser player but also a lesser value going out too. Plus there are quite few teams all interested in a cheap cost effective dman. If one team gets Manson and the other gets Giordano, that 3rd team for example is left with going HUGE with Chychrun/Klingberg/Lindholm or much less with Chiarot for example. Heck maybe that 3rd team doesn't even have the right assets to acquire one of those guys in the first place so their options are more limited. Who knows?
We seem to think that because MTL is asking for a 1st for Chiarot that all the other teams selling players are asking for the exact same return so all these guys are equal "good". If Im Dallas, Im selling Klingberg for minimum of double what MTL is asking for Chiarot. Which may be pricing some teams out, right out of the gate. Imagine the backlash if a GM got less for Klingberg than MTL got for Chiarot...
Also just to add, teams need the player they're acquiring to be as cheap as possible as pretty much all contenders are cap strapped. Chiarot at 50% retained is 1.75M. Thats more manageable than ALL of the other players mentioned without a 3rd team retaining. Arizona only has 1 more retention spot so everyone can't be using them as the easy "we'll just get a 3rd team to retain" scenario either. Even with another team involved, that's yet another asset they'd have to trade off to get that 3rd team to retain a second time. For some teams, they might see the final cost as too much.
Its not that Chiarot is soooo good that soooo many teams want him. Its that of the group of guys that they like (Chiarot including), he'll probably be the cheapest to acquire AND in cap. I'd rather have Chychrun too but if its going to cost Two 1sts and two of your best prospects to get him, maybe Chiarot becomes the easy plan B if all the other good Dman are taken and teams are getting down to the wire on TDL that making a big move would take too long to do.
Im not even sure the 1st HAS to be in the trade. I think Hughes would be fine with just prospects and a late pick or whatever. I think the combined value has to
reach a 1st but doesn't have to be a 1st specifically. Either way, we'll see.