CD282

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Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 11 heures
Sujet: why is there so many advanced stats haters
So many "advanced stats" try to distill a players value down to one number. That's a mistake, IMO.

Also, everybody and their dog can come up with a method of evaluating players, just because it's out there doesn't make it valuable. Most of them fail to account for quality of competition adequately, so that 3rd pairing defensemen often have better GAR (for instance) than 1st pairing defensemen on the same team. It doesn't mean they are better.

I prefer to look at the raw data from NST myself, and look for trends and patterns in a player's results. NST also has non-"raw" stats like xGF and GSAA which is great, but if you look you'll notice that these stats differ from site to site. They can't all be correct, so I understand why people mistrust them.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 13 heures
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 13 heures
Sujet: The Quinton Byfield Era Starts Now
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Claesson4Norris</b></div><div>World Juniors are not a great indicator on who is ready for the NHL. First off, he was 17, almost a full year or two younger than most of his team and competition. Do you remember Lafreniere's age 17 world Junior performance? He was not good. Honestly making the team at all is impressive for a 17 year old. Also 5 games is not a meaningful sample size.</div></div>

He's still 17, and will be until August. And you're proposal pits him against the best on the world, not the best within 2 years of him. Huge, huge difference. I don't think it would be fair to him to throw him into the deep end like this. He'll be there soon enough, and for many years to come, but I would send him back to the OHL for a year if I were GM.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 14 heures
Sujet: Balance with Flat Cap and CBO
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>For what it's worth, Yamamoto played a bit of center when he was in the WHL too. The issue so much isn't that they can play it at the junior level, but whether or not they can at the professional level. Both Jarvis and Mercer are shoot-first mentalities. You'd absolutely want them on the wing.

I like Reichel but personally felt it better to optimize the picks available to Edmonton in this draft. If the Oilers think that a better RHC could be had at next year's draft and they instead choose to focus on identifying scoring wingers as their key need, I'm more than open to a draft that features nothing but quality wingers through the first 100 picks.</div></div>

Also, there are lots of "shoot-first" guys that are successful centers in the NHL. Matthews, MacKinnon, Tavares and Stamkos come to mind. Whether a player has a tendency to shoot the puck rather than pass it is not what determines success at the position.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 14 heures
Sujet: Balance with Flat Cap and CBO
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>For what it's worth, Yamamoto played a bit of center when he was in the WHL too. The issue so much isn't that they can play it at the junior level, but whether or not they can at the professional level. Both Jarvis and Mercer are shoot-first mentalities. You'd absolutely want them on the wing.

I like Reichel but personally felt it better to optimize the picks available to Edmonton in this draft. If the Oilers think that a better RHC could be had at next year's draft and they instead choose to focus on identifying scoring wingers as their key need, I'm more than open to a draft that features nothing but quality wingers through the first 100 picks.</div></div>

So the 3 players I'm targeting in round 1 are RHC, so then I think it's best to target LW with other high picks. RHD could use some talent infusion too, but IMO is less of a priority than the two forward positions mentioned. I wouldn't have a problem with selecting more LHC in later rounds too, as outside McLeod there aren't really any centers in the system deserving of an NHL contract.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 14 heures
Sujet: Balance with Flat Cap and CBO
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>For what it's worth, Yamamoto played a bit of center when he was in the WHL too. The issue so much isn't that they can play it at the junior level, but whether or not they can at the professional level. Both Jarvis and Mercer are shoot-first mentalities. You'd absolutely want them on the wing.

I like Reichel but personally felt it better to optimize the picks available to Edmonton in this draft. If the Oilers think that a better RHC could be had at next year's draft and they instead choose to focus on identifying scoring wingers as their key need, I'm more than open to a draft that features nothing but quality wingers through the first 100 picks.</div></div>
Jarvis is listed as a center by his team and by his league:

<a href="https://whl.ca/players/27984" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://whl.ca/players/27984</a>
<a href="https://winterhawks.com/roster/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://winterhawks.com/roster/</a>

As is Dawson Mercer:

<a href="https://sagueneens.com/players/17001" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://sagueneens.com/players/17001</a>

Yamamoto was not:

<a href="https://whl.ca/players/26884" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://whl.ca/players/26884</a>

I'm not sure why you're arguing this point.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 16 heures
Sujet: Balance with Flat Cap and CBO
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>If we understand what Edmonton's philosophy will be on draft-day - something Lowetide identified will be forward-heavy in his top-93 - it's important to consider all aspects of what Edmonton's depth charts look like right now. There exists an organizational positional deficiency among left wing scoring forwards and right handed centermen. You're correct in identifying players that could have second-line potential and having them anchor the third line: this would develop Edmonton's depth to levels unheard of since the glory days of the mid-80's.

My entire draft strategy would come down to whether or not I saw Nugent-Hopkins as a long-term piece in Edmonton. I know the term and AAV aren't as ideal as they could be, but if RNH agreed to the Hayes deal and was an Oiler for life (I think his player-type would allow him the longevity to still produce to the end of his deal, similar to Pavelski?), then I believe finding a right-handed pivot should take precedent over a winger. If names like Mercer or Quinn become available, I think they need to be prioritized despite not filling an immediate need. It's unforgivable to pass up on high talent in a draft, which is a mistake this franchise has made far too often.

If however, Nuge wants out of Edmonton, then the organization would need to prioritize a LW prospect in the first round. In terms of top-6 talent, Edmonton should be fine with it's dynamic duo down the middle and Yamomoto plus Lavoie on the right wing. Outside of Nugent-Hopkins having converting to the wing, there's not a lot in the system that could play that premier role in a few years and I think it is the greater area of need. Jarvis (if he's productive on his off-hand side), Mysak, Amirov, and any name that falls out of the top-20 would be my priority.

That being said, I don't make the Reichel pick at #33 unless Nugent-Hopkins is truly set to leave Edmonton, and you've incorrectly identified Jarvis and Mercer as centermen.

I'd still go with Jarventie with the late second. I don't think him being Finnish matters: if the kid can play, he can play. If what you've said about Jarventie holds merit and he does have #1LW potential due to his skillset and that it might play well off of McDavid, what Edmonton really needs to find with the #20 and #33 picks (as you've identified) are a top-six left wing and a right-handed top-six center that are both destined to anchor the third line.

RNH - Draisaitl - Yamamoto
(Jarventie) - McDavid - Lavoie
[] - McLeod - []

Using this assumed template of where prospects and players would likely end up, I think Edmonton runs set pairs of players at those picks in order to accommodate the gaps on the third line. In essense:

If a scoring winger is prioritized at #20 (Jarvis), then I believe Perreault or Foudy would be the player taken at #33. This gives Edmonton a strong side pivot on the third line for every draw and Jarvis is likely capable of playing both wing positions. McLeod offers defensive utility, and depending on the side of the faceoff, you'd run Jarvis - McLeod - Perreault or McLeod - Perreault - Jarvis. If a right-handed center is prioritized at #20 (Bourque), then I'd be shocked if that early second round pick wasn't used on a Nybeck or even Jarvis if he slides (he's still a second rounder on a few projections) and the Oilers would likely run lines in a similar fashion. The whole thing goes to hell if a Holloway, Mercer, or Quinn falls into the Oilers' lap, and I'd prefer if they just went with BFA (best forward available) through the whole draft.

If Benning is available that late, jump on him immediately. I'd be utterly surprised to see him available past the early third round.

I like the Bozak trade. I've never been big on Marody as a prospect. Shame he lost so much of last season to injury.

I don't think Benson nor Bouchard make this roster out of camp, and that Holland is super likely to sign Green to play #3RD. We gave up assets for the guy and got like two games out of him. I think Ennis would take the #3LW spot in Benson's stead.</div></div>

Good post. I don't watch WHL or QMJHL much, but Steve Kournianos does and says that both Jarvis and Mercer play center and wing. If a bunch of these guys drop to 20 it'll be interesting, but I would definitely take Jarvis before Quinn, and maybe Mercer, too. Irrespective of Nugent-Hopkins's decision whether he's staying or not, I'd still go after Riechel if he's available at 33, he's that good. And we probably won't have a decision from Nuge by the draft anyhow, so I don't think that's relevant.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 16 heures
Sujet: I got really bored
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>Larsson will demand a big raise because Edmonton cannot afford to let him walk. If they let Larsson go, it'll look bad for the Hall trade. Knowing that, he's likelt to ask for something like 6 mil. He's not worth it, but it's his ask most likely.</div></div>
That's just silly. Holland doesn't give a **** about how any of his moves make Peter Chiarelli look. Holland will make moves based on the best interest of the team today, not what something was worth to someone else 5 years ago.

Dumbest argument ever.

I don't think Larsson will get a raise at all, I think a short-term contract at about $4M will get it done.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>As for Bear, he was being babysat. Haydn Fleury played top line minutes in Carolina..... with Jaccob Slavin. It's not always because they deserve it, and the stats agree with that for Bear. Could he become a top pairing D man, absolutely. Is he that now? No.</div></div>

Bear wasn't being "babysat", there were many games that he carried the pairing. Bear played the hardest minutes of any Oilers defenseman this year and ended with better analytics even than his partner Nurse. Aside from scoring numbers, but we already know you don't care about that.

Clearly you haven't watched the Oilers very closely this year.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 16 heures
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 20 heures
Sujet: I got really bored
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>Caleb Jones? You really are reaching. That's like me saying "Carolina better not acquire a top 6 center, Morgan Geekie is gonna be right there for that spot" It's ludicrous and there is no statistical proof to back it up other than what has been displaced in a very limited sample size. Jones is still a question mark, Skjei isn't.</div></div>

Jones' cap hit is $850k for the next 2 years and he proved to be capable of holding down his job this year. You know he was playing 2LD when Klefbom was injured, right? He and Larsson outscored opponents 8-5 despite 38% offensive zone faceoffs.

It isn't worth the massive cap hit to upgrade 3LD to Skjei. Even if CAR was willing to give Edmonton Skjei for free.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 20 heures