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CD282
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Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon at 2:42 pm
Sujet:
montreal monday lineup
Jack Michaels
@EdmontonJack
·
6m
Tonight vs MTL:
RNH-McDavid-Kassian
Kahun-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Nygard-Turris-Puljujarvi
Archibald-Shore-Chiasson
Nurse-Koekkoek
Russell-Barrie
Lagesson-Larsson
Koskinen
***
That defense... :cry
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon at 2:39 pm
Sujet:
Musical Chairs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>He's saving $4.1 million in actual money with this transaction.</div></div>
Actual dollars have never been the issue.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon at 2:38 pm
Sujet:
Musical Chairs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Timmah007</b></div><div>I just didn’t see the same jump up and go out of bear perhaps it’s more the habs game I wasn’t impressed with a few plays. Couple key battles lost some of which I don’t fault him on due to physical maturity he isn’t larsson can’t expect him to clear the front of kosk like larsson can. I think we need to see jones out Russell in for a couple games but would also like to get a look at bouch before an injury happens and he’s forced into the line up. Less pressure this way that would require one of larsson barrie or bear to sit out fairly easy choice in my opinion on who gets a game or two off need to keep experience in the line up so least experienced sits.</div></div>
It was the 3rd game in 4 nights - the whole Oilers team lacked "jump". It's normal.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon at 12:24 pm
Sujet:
Barkov
Highly underrating Barkov here. He's worth much more than this offer.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon at 12:20 pm
Sujet:
Oilers Lines vs MTL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Zmach</b></div><div>So you think it's just Nurse-bear that has been the problem?</div></div>
Nurse-Bear this year:
55.00 CF%
56.25 FF%
54.29 SF%
71.43 GF% (5-2)
57.94 xGF%
62.79 SCF%
64.00 HDCF%
I'm not seeing an issue there. The issues almost exclusively have come when Tippett mixed up the pairings - except for the Jones-Larsson miscues in game 1. It takes time to get used to a new partner though, so some bumps are to be expected. From the look of things, there were some bumps in G1 but not since then with these pairings, as the past 2 games:
The Oilers have allowed 5 goals at 5v5
Nurse-Bear have gone 3-1
Jones-Larsson have gone 0-1
Koekkoek-Barrie have gone 1-1
Three goals allowed from the regular pairings (1.50 GA/GP) is pretty good, really. Two aren't accounted for as they came when Tippett started mixing things up. Lets look at the "per-sixties" just to make sure:
The Oilers played 95:58 at 5v5 over the past 2 games (3.12 GA/60)
Nurse-Bear have played 28:46 <strong>(2.08 GA/60)</strong>
Jones-Larsson have played 25:35 <strong>(2.34 GA/60)</strong>
Koekkoek-Barrie have played 20:04 <strong>(3.00 GA/60)</strong>
Mixed pairings: 21:33 <strong>(5.58 GA/60)</strong>
Unless there's an injury, I'd stick with these guys for now, but I'd staple them together.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon at 11:58 am
Sujet:
Fixing the season
Holy Overreaction, Batman! Its 3 games in, the season doesn't need "fixing" yet.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon at 11:55 am
Sujet:
Musical Chairs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Timmah007</b></div><div>This would make the oilers worse. They need experience on the back end both jones and bear haven’t hit the ground running moving larsson only places more responsibility on bear which would more likely cause the Shultz effect more than rebound him back to last years form. Dead set against moving larsson</div></div>
I agree, but where are you getting the narrative that Bear hasn't "hit the ground running" this season?
54.87 CF%
55.06 FF%
52.63 SF%
62.50 GF%
56.13 xGF%
59.18 SCF%
60.71 HDCF%
42.86 O-zone start%
1st pairing comp
Jones-Larsson had a wobbly 1st game, but they've been okay since.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon at 11:49 am
Sujet:
Oilers Lines vs MTL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Zmach</b></div><div>I think Nurse/ bear and Koekoek/Barrie are joined at the hip unfortunately. Nurse larsson doesn't work. Jones-Barrie would be an absolute mess.</div></div>
I agree with this.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Zmach</b></div><div>I would like a message sent to jones and larsson and to see russell and bouchard draw in.</div></div>
But not this.
Jones-Larsson have been fine except for the first game.
41.30 CF%
53.33 FF%
54.54 SF%
0-1 goals
55.81 xGF%
.900 PDO
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon at 11:29 am
Sujet:
Musical Chairs
Edmonton declines. Andersen is a downgrade on Koskinen and Holland has publicly stated that he isn't going to spend a lot of money on goaltending.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon at 11:23 am
Sujet:
Oilers Lines vs MTL
I like that 3rd line - they've only had 7 minutes together but I think they have potential. They'll need a few games to gel a bit so I'm not expecting much right away, but I think Tippett should stick with that line for 5-10 games. Of course, if Kassian is not playing tonight I could see Tippett playing Puljujarvi in the 1st line as he's the type of linemate McDavid needs.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon at 11:21 am
Sujet:
Oilers Lines vs MTL
Why would you screw up all the defense pairings?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon at 11:10 am
Sujet:
Fluery
Edmonton rejects. Andersen isn't an upgrade on Koskinen.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon at 10:22 am
Sujet:
Nuge goes to market
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>For the sake of argument players like Eakin and Girgensons are getting that rate of salary, and no one in their right mind would consider them third liners in a good team. Coleman's one of the better mid-6 assets in the league, and is likely to get paid as one.
Provided he repeats a season like the last, I do expect him to go in the $3-4 mil rate. See Marcus Foligno's new contract for instance. Should he hit free agency, that contract will become the bare minimun he'll earn.
Hamilton...ehh. i think only a total overpayment would convince the guy to relocate in west Siberia. I can't see a realistic future where the guy puts on an Oilers shirt without earning at least $10M AAV. Frankly, I can't see any reason why he'd leave the Canes.</div></div>
LOL at you using two of the worst signings in the past year to compare:
https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/381335
https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/379537
Both were unforced errors on the part of a rookie GM in an organization with a skeleton support staff. Even CFer's knew they were bad deals.
And there's no need to attack Edmonton like that. I've been there in the winter several times and it's nothing like Siberia. Hamilton is Canadian and played for several years in Calgary, I'm sure he knows too. Maybe he doesn't leave Carolina, but he isn't getting $10M from them or anyone else. He simply isn't worth that. There's not even any argument to be made that he's worth as much as Pietrangelo ($8.8M) or Josi ($9M), let alone much more than both.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon at 10:05 am
Sujet:
Nuge goes to market
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>I like the idea of buying big on Hamilton if Nuge goes to market. That said, I fundamentally hate the idea of RNH testing UFA.
I remain unconvinced that Danault wants to be a #3C for his entire career when his ceiling is obviously higher than that. Probably looking at allocating his money into a more realistic offer for Hamilton (Pietrangelo minimum) and possibly at throwing more money at Hall as opposed to Saad.
I think you're a touch low on Kahun: if he's earned an extension, then he's done so by posting 3rd-line numbers at minimum and he likely comes in closer to what you've offered Coleman.
I'd prefer Holloway to have a season in the AHL - I'll admit that I'm absolute convinced in his current abilities and I've warmed up to his selection - but I still firmly believe in incrementally introducing prospects to harder and harder environments. He'd pair well with Lavoie, and having Broberg off-roster (assuming AHL deployment to start) gives Bakersfield the potential to be a playoff team. There's merit in that kind of developmental environment.
Buying out Neal or retaining 50% in a trade makes more immediate sense for roster improvements than continuing to ice a $6M fourth-liner. I don't immediately like the Goodrow signing either, but I have a personal thing about 4th-line players making over $1M. I'd much rather focus on the strength of the top-three lines and try to shoehorn in some PK specialists for dirt-cheap on that bottom line.
I appreciate the optimism in Klefbom returning, but will he be at top-pair calibre should he comes back? Can't exactly cure arthritis. With money having evaporated into Hamilton and a Hall/Saad in the top-six, what's your longer-term outlook for the blueline? What kind of deals are Jones and Bear signing for after they've expired? Does Nurse stay or go akin to Nugent-Hopkins?</div></div>
Lots of great commentary here, thanks for your input. Some notes:
- going after Hamilton isn't dependent on whether or not Nuge goes to market: he's getting the money formerly allocated to Larsson & Barrie ($4.166M + $3.75M = $7.916M). Hamilton + Bouchard are only slightly more at $8.363M. So the Oilers could make a play for Hamilton with or without Nuge. I'm somewhat ambivalent on this as I'm not a huge Hamilton fan, I'd rather re-sign Barrie to another 1-year deal with the intention of grabbing one of the marquee UFA defensemen in 2022: Letang / Giordano / Klingberg / Ekholm would be excellent on short-term deals while Nurse / Parayko / Jones / Lindholm / Rielly / Pulock would be candidates for longer term deals.
- I think Danault wants to win, like most players, and will do what it takes to get his name etched. I don't think Hamilton gets Pietrangelo money (he's not that caliber at all) so I certainly wouldn't do that, and I don't think Hall is worth much (if any) more than Nuge so if Nuge isn't going to take the Oilers offer, why would Hall?
- Kahun has been posting 2nd line numbers the past 2 years, I expect nothing less this year. So this is low for sure, but after bouncing around the NHL the past few years I think he'll trade AAV for term and the opportunity to play with Draisaitl.
- I like the idea of giving Holloway a year (or part of one) in Bakersfield, and I presume Holland does too. However, AHL playoffs / Calder Cup is not a priority for this organization (IMO), the success of the Oilers NHL club is the only thing that matters. I'd do what's best for the team and if Holloway is ready to step up, that's where he'll be. IMO he and Puljujarvi would be the perfect linemates for McDavid - he's a one-man zone entry / scoring chance machine, but his sorties are often one-and-done and these two, while being able to keep up with his rushes, can also cycle the puck like crazy, adding more opportunities for McDavid to create scoring chances. We saw what happened when Tippett put Draisaitl and Yamamoto with McDavid against Vancouver - 2 minutes of o-zone time resulting in a goal. That's what I'm trying to re-create here without using either Draisaitl or Yamamoto on the line.
- I hate buyouts, but Neal's contract might come to that. Or Robidas Island with a skin condition! ;) I agree re: Goodrow, I was at the end and didn't feel like researching 4th liners PK history, so I just stuck him in.
- Yeah, I'm not actually that optimistic about Klefbom, but if he's 90% he'll be able to play top-4 with a strong partner. I have him at the top here because (a) I wanted to keep Nurse-Bear together, and (b) people here would freak out if I put Nurse-Bear ahead of Klefbom-Hamilton just due to reputation.
- Good question re: Jones / Bear / Nurse future contracts. The truth is that we don't know what will transpire over the next 2 years, but with Bouchard, Samorukov and Broberg coming, there are options. The Oilers will have to be very careful not to give too much AAV+term to the wrong defenseman (and maybe I've already done so with this AGM).
- I think Nurse should be treated like any other UFA - give him a fair offer akin to his abilities, but know that there are options in the marketplace. If Nurse is demanding more AAV and / or term than I'm willing to give him then I'd look at signing (say) Ekholm to a 3-year deal instead, or Giordano to a 1-year deal to see if Broberg can step up in that timeframe. There are options aplenty in 2022.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon at 9:20 am
Sujet:
Nuge goes to market
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>Think majority of these contracts are too low and optimistic. Especially Hamilton and Coleman.</div></div>
I like both players but am more realistic I think. IF Hamilton repeats his 70-point pace this year maybe he gets close to Pietrangelo, but there's no reasonable argument to be made that a 40-50 point defenseman should be paid Josi / Hedman / Pietrangelo money well into his 30's.
Coleman probably gets term, but I think $2.5M is plenty for a good 3rd liner.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon at 9:08 am
Sujet:
Nuge goes to market
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CeciGOAT</b></div><div>I like the team. You probably need like 5 million to sign those free agents though, all of them are a little low. I think they should pay the price and trade Neal if they are serious about contending.</div></div>
Yup, it's all doable if they can move the Neal contract. I don't think there will be any takers without serious sweeteners added... maybe Seattle can be convinced but I doubt it. A buyout saves $3.8M.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Fri at 6:15 pm
Sujet:
Dubois Trade EDM - Not Realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Zmach</b></div><div>I would be elated to see a trade for a goalie with a .941 playoff sv%.</div></div>
What is it with you and small sample sizes? Do you think Farabee is going to challenge for the Art Ross this year too?? It's been one game. Sheesh.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Fri at 5:47 pm
Sujet:
Dubois Trade EDM - Not Realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Zmach</b></div><div>I would say that edmonton won't trade any one of those players at this point. They would however trade a 1st round pick and william Lagesson for korpisalo next summer.</div></div>
No they won't. You will, but Holland won't.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Fri at 5:46 pm
Sujet:
Another Good Trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheLeafsSeason</b></div><div>I was looking more as a desperation for a goalie need</div></div>
They need a 3rd goalie though, that's not something you give up a top-4 defenseman for.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Fri at 5:19 pm
Sujet:
We HAVE to do better tonight
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ConnorMcJesus</b></div><div>Thanks bud</div></div>
What's the weather looking like on Saturday? I think Jesse scores tomorrow.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Fri at 3:09 pm
Sujet:
top 10 players in 5 years
To pretend that Draisaitl isn't full value for his points is ridiculous. Just looking at the past 2 years (and the season so far), Draisaitl is top in the league.
Points
1. Draisaitl: 220
2. McDavid: 217 (-3)
3. Kucherov: 213 (-7)
4. Kane: 194 (-26)
5. MacKinnon: 192 (-28)
6. Marchand: 189 (-31)
7. Panarin: 182 (-38)
8. Pastrnak: 176 (-44)
Goals
1. Ovechkin: 99
2. Draisaitl: 93 (-6)
3. Pastrnak: 86 (-13)
4. Matthews: 84 (-15)
5. McDavid: 78 (-21)
6. Kane: 77 (-22)
7. MacKinnon: 76 (-23)
8. Stamkos: 75 (-24)
You don't get to the top by riding someone else's coattails. He's a top-5 guy in the league without a doubt and will be top-10 in 5 years unless he suffers a major injury.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Fri at 2:51 pm
Sujet:
We HAVE to do better tonight
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ConnorMcJesus</b></div><div><a href="/users/Jeuck75" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Jeuck75</a> <a href="/users/oilersguy" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@oilersguy</a> <a href="/users/CD282" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@CD282</a>
I was right</div></div>
I actually thought about your prediction last night! :rockon
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Thu at 3:59 pm
Sujet:
Trade Deadline Trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AJC13</b></div><div>No! My bad, I meant on pace for 60 plus points over an 82 game schedule. So for this season it would average out to Buchnevich having about 0.75.</div></div>
Oh, that makes more sense. I don't know enough about Buchnevich to comment on the value... maybe a tad high considering he doesn't have a contract beyond this season. I think Edmonton would be more likely to give up a B+ left defense prospect rather than McLeod, not sure if that's of any interest to NYR.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Thu at 3:55 pm
Sujet:
We HAVE to do better tonight
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jeuck75</b></div><div>I didn't know the lines so I just did what I thought they were, lol</div></div>
I don't think they've been released for tonight's game, but this is what they ran last night:
https://lowetide.ca/2021/01/14/2020-21-game-2-canucks-at-oilers/
I imagine they'll change the bottom-6 to something like this:
Ennis - Turris - Puljujarvi
Nygard - Shore - Archibald/ Chiasson
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Thu at 3:51 pm
Sujet:
Prospects with high chance of busting from each team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mhockey91</b></div><div>This guys such a homer. No one is projecting studnika to be a legit 1C. Maybe on Boston because their C prospects are so bad and they have nobody to replace Bergeron, but it’s highly unlikely he’s a legitimate 1C on a cup contending team</div></div>
I know next to nothing about the prospect in question, but he's 22 next month and has played a grand total of 2 NHL games. Not many top-6 center prospects are in the minors at 21/22 - especially when depth on the big club isn't blocking them. (FYI: he's currently on their taxi squad as far as I can tell.)
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