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CD282

Membre depuis
4 mar 2017
Messages dans les forums
14516
Messages par jour
8.74
Sujets de discussion
433
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 6:44 pm
Sujet: Three team trade with ducks and pens part 1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tkecanuck341</b></div><div>You have proven nothing except that you are overly reliant on stats to evaluate players.

Gibson hasn't had Vezina worthy seasons recently, but he's pretty much the only reason why Anaheim isn't dead last in the league in GA every year (23rd last season). He's still a quality starting goaltender, and certainly not a cap dump.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Sure, bud. He wasn't even the best goalie on his team this year. <a href="http://www.nhl.com/stats/goalies?reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20202021&amp;seasonTo=20202021&amp;gameType=2&amp;playerPlayedFor=franchise.32&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=wins,savePct&amp;page=0&amp;pageSize=50" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://www.nhl.com/stats/goalies?reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20202021&amp;seasonTo=20202021&amp;gameType=2&amp;playerPlayedFor=franchise.32&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=wins,savePct&amp;page=0&amp;pageSize=50</a>

:tearsofjoy</div></div>

When your hero gets outplayed by Anthony Stolarz, you should realize that there's something wrong.

:laugh
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 6:43 pm
Sujet: Three team trade with ducks and pens part 1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tkecanuck341</b></div><div>You have proven nothing except that you are overly reliant on stats to evaluate players.

Gibson hasn't had Vezina worthy seasons recently, but he's pretty much the only reason why Anaheim isn't dead last in the league in GA every year (23rd last season). He's still a quality starting goaltender, and certainly not a cap dump.</div></div>

Sure, bud. He wasn't even the best goalie on his team this year. <a href="http://www.nhl.com/stats/goalies?reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20202021&amp;seasonTo=20202021&amp;gameType=2&amp;playerPlayedFor=franchise.32&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=wins,savePct&amp;page=0&amp;pageSize=50" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://www.nhl.com/stats/goalies?reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20202021&amp;seasonTo=20202021&amp;gameType=2&amp;playerPlayedFor=franchise.32&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=wins,savePct&amp;page=0&amp;pageSize=50</a>

:tearsofjoy
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 8:58 am
Sujet: Hello
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Nhl_oilers</b></div><div>Either or I would be perfectly happy with. I like Puljujarvi with McDavid, mainly because of his speed, defensive ability, shot, he knows where to go, and how big he is. If he was a little meaner, he would be a guy that would be scary to go against. Yamamoto also is a good player, and maybe your lines would work, but yah, I don’t care as long as McDavid gets Hyman, Draisaitl is centring his own line, with Nuge, and Puljujarvi, and possibly Yamamoto is in the top 6. I’m in for trying different lines, and switching Yamamoto with Puljujarvi for sure! Also, Puljujarvi and Hyman going into the corners, and feeding McDavid would be awesome!</div></div>

But that leaves Draisaitl with two smaller, less physical wingers. My intention here was to split Nugent-Hopkins and Yamamoto... Puljujarvi is a good fit for McDavid as you suggest but Hyman takes over his role on that line going forward.

I know a lot of people are suggesting Kassian in the top-6, and while that could work I'd like to see more consistent effort and more consistent defensive reads from him first. Those things aren't issues for Yamamoto (he's elite in those areas) or Puljujarvi, and since Tippett likes to run power v power I think these traits are important for the top-6 wingers.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 8:34 am
Sujet: Hello
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Timmah007</b></div><div>I like your lines. I’m personally not that high on yam and could see him if signed getting time in the bottom six and easier match ups to try and build more consistency offensively. That becomes even more likely the more time he misses from camp.</div></div>
<a href="/users/Nhl_oilers" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Nhl_oilers</a>

My own analysis leads me to these lines:

Hyman - McDavid - Yamamoto
Nugent-Hopkins - Draisaitl - Puljujarvi

These lines have the best possible combination of size, speed, skill and defensive ability.

Small sample sizes, but NST's line tool feature shows us that Puljujarvi does better with Draisaitl than with McDavid, and Yamamoto does better with McDavid than Draisaitl.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 8:01 am
Sujet: Three team trade with ducks and pens part 1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tkecanuck341</b></div><div>Again, all shots are not equal, and shot quality is dramatically affected by the quality of the team playing in front of you. Winnipeg and Edmonton are both playoff teams (this season and last season). Anaheim was downright terrible in both seasons, finishing 27th in the league in 2019-20 and 30th in 2020-21.

If Koskinen put up those numbers playing for San Jose, then that would be different.</div></div>

Again, I already posted the shot quality numbers. And again, the reason the Ducks are so much worse than the Jets and Oilers is due to offense and goaltending, not defense. The Jets defense gave up the 2nd most high danger chances in the league over the past 2 seasons:

<a href="http://naturalstattrick.com/teamtable.php?fromseason=20192020&amp;thruseason=20202021&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;rate=n&amp;team=all&amp;loc=B&amp;gpf=410&amp;fd=&amp;td=" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://naturalstattrick.com/teamtable.php?fromseason=20192020&amp;thruseason=20202021&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;rate=n&amp;team=all&amp;loc=B&amp;gpf=410&amp;fd=&amp;td=</a>

You keep spouting nonsense with no facts to back it up. The facts are that Gibson is NOT a good goalie anymore, he's a cap dump.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 6:58 pm
Sujet: Three team trade with ducks and pens part 1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Shots against per GP, 2020-21
19. Anaheim: 30.6
20. Winnipeg: 30.6
21. Edmonton: 30.7

Goals against per GP, 2020-21
10. Winnipeg: 2.71
12. Edmonton: 2.75
23. Anaheim: 3.16

One of these is not like the other.</div></div>

The numbers for the previous year are even more pronounced: <a href="http://www.nhl.com/stats/teams?reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20192020&amp;seasonTo=20192020&amp;gameType=2&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=a_goalsAgainstPerGame&amp;page=0&amp;pageSize=50" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://www.nhl.com/stats/teams?reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20192020&amp;seasonTo=20192020&amp;gameType=2&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=a_goalsAgainstPerGame&amp;page=0&amp;pageSize=50</a>
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 6:21 pm
Sujet: Three team trade with ducks and pens part 1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tkecanuck341</b></div><div>There's no stat that can account for the fact that Vasilevskiy plays for the best team in the league, Koskinen plays for a playoff team (in the league's weakest division last season), and Anaheim plays for a perennial basement dweller. Save percentage, like GAA and Wins, is very much a team stat, not an individual one.</div></div>

I never compared Gibson to Vasilevskiy, that was you. I compared him to Koskinen and gave you the stats that show:

- they faced comparable number of HD shots, Koskinen had clearly better results
- Koskinen faced more 5v5 shots/60 with comparable results

He's just not a good goalie, no matter how you slice it. You can blame his team all you want, but good goalies can post good numbers behind poor defenses, and do all the time. Look at Hellebuyck, for instance.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 5:52 pm
Sujet: Three team trade with ducks and oilers part 3
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LetsGoPens69</b></div><div>Ya, Edmonton is taking a bath on this deal. Benson, Broberg, koskinen and a 2nd and 3rd for Rakell and Jarry.


Pens should just get Gibson. And give up Jarry, a 1st and 3rd. Edmonton gets Jarry, Rackell. Gives up Koskinen, Benson or Broberg, a 2nd, and a 3rd. Ana gets a 1st, a 2nd, two 3rds, Koskinen and Benson or Broberg.</div></div>

You don't want Gibson. He's been below average for two and a half seasons now following injuries sustained in the 2018-19 campaign. He's essentially a cap dump at this point. Expecting someone to spend high-end assets on him in the hopes that he regains his form is delusional, IMO.

16-17: .924
17-18: .926
1st half 18-19: .924
2nd half 18-19: .906 - below average
19-20: .904 - below average
20-21: .903 - below average

<a href="https://www.nhl.com/player/john-gibson-8476434" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">nhl.com/player/john-gibson</a>
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 5:46 pm
Sujet: Three team trade with ducks and pens part 1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tkecanuck341</b></div><div>The quality of those shots is significantly different with Tampa's defense playing in front of you instead of Anaheim's. Not all shots are considered equal.</div></div>

There are shot quality stats, you know. Over the past 2 years Gibson has faced similar number of High Danger shots as Mikko Koskinen (8.78/60 vs 8.50/60), but his HDSV% is well below the big Finn's (.814 vs .833).

<a href="https://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&amp;thruseason=20202021&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;stdoi=g&amp;rate=y&amp;team=ALL&amp;pos=S&amp;loc=B&amp;toi=2750&amp;gpfilt=none&amp;fd=&amp;td=&amp;tgp=410&amp;lines=single&amp;draftteam=ALL" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&amp;thruseason=20202021&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;stdoi=g&amp;rate=y&amp;team=ALL&amp;pos=S&amp;loc=B&amp;toi=2750&amp;gpfilt=none&amp;fd=&amp;td=&amp;tgp=410&amp;lines=single&amp;draftteam=ALL</a>
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 5:24 pm
Sujet: Bergevin leaves Patrick Roy enters
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OlegP</b></div><div>Silly, you mean like assuming that Lavoie actually blossoms into anything more than a bottom 6 thus at best a poor man's Lehkonen. Arturri gets paid 2.3M for one if youre gonna continue your delusions which isnt overpaid for what he brings.

Here's the synopsis from Corey Pronman on Lavoie

7. Raphael Lavoie, RW, Bakersfield-AHL

Sept. 25, 2000 | 6-foot-4 | 196 pounds

Drafted: No. 38 in 2019

Tier: Projected to play NHL games

<strong>Skating: Poor
Puck Skills: Average
Hockey Sense: Average
Compete: Poor
Shot: Above-average</strong>

Lavoie had a busy season. He was cut from his SHL team, went to be a leading scorer on a bottom feeding Allsvenskan team, then came over to the AHL where he was good for Bakersfield. He’s a tough player to figure out. He’s 6-foot-4, has very good skill, can create chances for himself and others and has a great shot to score from range. He looks like a player who should pop consistently with his talent. Those moments don’t happen too often due to a lack of speed in his game, and an effort level that comes and goes on top of playing too much on the perimeter. I still see too much scoring ability that I think Lavoie finds a way to be a <strong>bottom six winger.</strong>

wow what a prospect. had you a bit of levity you would actually compromise in your thinking but you are clearly a biased homer, and if i actually cared im sure i could find posts from you that said Caleb Jones was a top4 D. You overvalue magic beans</div></div>

Utterly irrelevant. As I said before, <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quote:</div>I don't really care what you think of Lavoie</div>

Edmonton rejects even if you took Lavoie out of the deal.



<em>(Interesting that you hate the prospect yet you traded for him, lol.)</em>
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 4:50 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 4:49 pm
Sujet: Who adds here
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mk458</b></div><div>Olofsson is 4 years older, but he's more established and the better goal scorer as of now. Yamamoto is much younger and has a higher ceiling, and probably creates more offense and works harder. If I'm the Oilers I'd probably just keep Yams, but value is close I guess</div></div>

Olofsson only scores on the PP though, and Yamamoto doesn't get PP time in Edmonton (neither would Olofsson) so we can't say who is the better scorer on the PP. At 5v5 (by far the largest game state) it's Yamamoto without a contest - Olofsson is one of the worst 5v5 goal scorers in the league. He's really bad, and it's because he's a perimeter player who won't go to the high danger areas.

<a href="https://naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20192020&amp;thruseason=20202021&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;stdoi=std&amp;rate=y&amp;p1=8478109&amp;p2=8479977&amp;loc=B&amp;gpfilt=none&amp;fd=&amp;td=&amp;tgp=410&amp;lines=single" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">naturalstattrick.com/playercompare</a>

The value isn't close.