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CD282

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4 mar 2017
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Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 2:38 pm
Sujet: Musical Chairs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Timmah007</b></div><div>I just didn’t see the same jump up and go out of bear perhaps it’s more the habs game I wasn’t impressed with a few plays. Couple key battles lost some of which I don’t fault him on due to physical maturity he isn’t larsson can’t expect him to clear the front of kosk like larsson can. I think we need to see jones out Russell in for a couple games but would also like to get a look at bouch before an injury happens and he’s forced into the line up. Less pressure this way that would require one of larsson barrie or bear to sit out fairly easy choice in my opinion on who gets a game or two off need to keep experience in the line up so least experienced sits.</div></div>

It was the 3rd game in 4 nights - the whole Oilers team lacked "jump". It's normal.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 12:20 pm
Sujet: Oilers Lines vs MTL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Zmach</b></div><div>So you think it's just Nurse-bear that has been the problem?</div></div>

Nurse-Bear this year:

55.00 CF%
56.25 FF%
54.29 SF%
71.43 GF% (5-2)
57.94 xGF%
62.79 SCF%
64.00 HDCF%

I'm not seeing an issue there. The issues almost exclusively have come when Tippett mixed up the pairings - except for the Jones-Larsson miscues in game 1. It takes time to get used to a new partner though, so some bumps are to be expected. From the look of things, there were some bumps in G1 but not since then with these pairings, as the past 2 games:

The Oilers have allowed 5 goals at 5v5
Nurse-Bear have gone 3-1
Jones-Larsson have gone 0-1
Koekkoek-Barrie have gone 1-1

Three goals allowed from the regular pairings (1.50 GA/GP) is pretty good, really. Two aren't accounted for as they came when Tippett started mixing things up. Lets look at the "per-sixties" just to make sure:

The Oilers played 95:58 at 5v5 over the past 2 games (3.12 GA/60)
Nurse-Bear have played 28:46 <strong>(2.08 GA/60)</strong>
Jones-Larsson have played 25:35 <strong>(2.34 GA/60)</strong>
Koekkoek-Barrie have played 20:04 <strong>(3.00 GA/60)</strong>
Mixed pairings: 21:33 <strong>(5.58 GA/60)</strong>

Unless there's an injury, I'd stick with these guys for now, but I'd staple them together.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 10:22 am
Sujet: Nuge goes to market
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>For the sake of argument players like Eakin and Girgensons are getting that rate of salary, and no one in their right mind would consider them third liners in a good team. Coleman's one of the better mid-6 assets in the league, and is likely to get paid as one.

Provided he repeats a season like the last, I do expect him to go in the $3-4 mil rate. See Marcus Foligno's new contract for instance. Should he hit free agency, that contract will become the bare minimun he'll earn.

Hamilton...ehh. i think only a total overpayment would convince the guy to relocate in west Siberia. I can't see a realistic future where the guy puts on an Oilers shirt without earning at least $10M AAV. Frankly, I can't see any reason why he'd leave the Canes.</div></div>

LOL at you using two of the worst signings in the past year to compare:

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/381335

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/379537

Both were unforced errors on the part of a rookie GM in an organization with a skeleton support staff. Even CFer's knew they were bad deals.

And there's no need to attack Edmonton like that. I've been there in the winter several times and it's nothing like Siberia. Hamilton is Canadian and played for several years in Calgary, I'm sure he knows too. Maybe he doesn't leave Carolina, but he isn't getting $10M from them or anyone else. He simply isn't worth that. There's not even any argument to be made that he's worth as much as Pietrangelo ($8.8M) or Josi ($9M), let alone much more than both.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 10:05 am
Sujet: Nuge goes to market
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>I like the idea of buying big on Hamilton if Nuge goes to market. That said, I fundamentally hate the idea of RNH testing UFA.

I remain unconvinced that Danault wants to be a #3C for his entire career when his ceiling is obviously higher than that. Probably looking at allocating his money into a more realistic offer for Hamilton (Pietrangelo minimum) and possibly at throwing more money at Hall as opposed to Saad.

I think you're a touch low on Kahun: if he's earned an extension, then he's done so by posting 3rd-line numbers at minimum and he likely comes in closer to what you've offered Coleman.

I'd prefer Holloway to have a season in the AHL - I'll admit that I'm absolute convinced in his current abilities and I've warmed up to his selection - but I still firmly believe in incrementally introducing prospects to harder and harder environments. He'd pair well with Lavoie, and having Broberg off-roster (assuming AHL deployment to start) gives Bakersfield the potential to be a playoff team. There's merit in that kind of developmental environment.

Buying out Neal or retaining 50% in a trade makes more immediate sense for roster improvements than continuing to ice a $6M fourth-liner. I don't immediately like the Goodrow signing either, but I have a personal thing about 4th-line players making over $1M. I'd much rather focus on the strength of the top-three lines and try to shoehorn in some PK specialists for dirt-cheap on that bottom line.

I appreciate the optimism in Klefbom returning, but will he be at top-pair calibre should he comes back? Can't exactly cure arthritis. With money having evaporated into Hamilton and a Hall/Saad in the top-six, what's your longer-term outlook for the blueline? What kind of deals are Jones and Bear signing for after they've expired? Does Nurse stay or go akin to Nugent-Hopkins?</div></div>

Lots of great commentary here, thanks for your input. Some notes:

- going after Hamilton isn't dependent on whether or not Nuge goes to market: he's getting the money formerly allocated to Larsson &amp; Barrie ($4.166M + $3.75M = $7.916M). Hamilton + Bouchard are only slightly more at $8.363M. So the Oilers could make a play for Hamilton with or without Nuge. I'm somewhat ambivalent on this as I'm not a huge Hamilton fan, I'd rather re-sign Barrie to another 1-year deal with the intention of grabbing one of the marquee UFA defensemen in 2022: Letang / Giordano / Klingberg / Ekholm would be excellent on short-term deals while Nurse / Parayko / Jones / Lindholm / Rielly / Pulock would be candidates for longer term deals.

- I think Danault wants to win, like most players, and will do what it takes to get his name etched. I don't think Hamilton gets Pietrangelo money (he's not that caliber at all) so I certainly wouldn't do that, and I don't think Hall is worth much (if any) more than Nuge so if Nuge isn't going to take the Oilers offer, why would Hall?

- Kahun has been posting 2nd line numbers the past 2 years, I expect nothing less this year. So this is low for sure, but after bouncing around the NHL the past few years I think he'll trade AAV for term and the opportunity to play with Draisaitl.

- I like the idea of giving Holloway a year (or part of one) in Bakersfield, and I presume Holland does too. However, AHL playoffs / Calder Cup is not a priority for this organization (IMO), the success of the Oilers NHL club is the only thing that matters. I'd do what's best for the team and if Holloway is ready to step up, that's where he'll be. IMO he and Puljujarvi would be the perfect linemates for McDavid - he's a one-man zone entry / scoring chance machine, but his sorties are often one-and-done and these two, while being able to keep up with his rushes, can also cycle the puck like crazy, adding more opportunities for McDavid to create scoring chances. We saw what happened when Tippett put Draisaitl and Yamamoto with McDavid against Vancouver - 2 minutes of o-zone time resulting in a goal. That's what I'm trying to re-create here without using either Draisaitl or Yamamoto on the line.

- I hate buyouts, but Neal's contract might come to that. Or Robidas Island with a skin condition! ;) I agree re: Goodrow, I was at the end and didn't feel like researching 4th liners PK history, so I just stuck him in.

- Yeah, I'm not actually that optimistic about Klefbom, but if he's 90% he'll be able to play top-4 with a strong partner. I have him at the top here because (a) I wanted to keep Nurse-Bear together, and (b) people here would freak out if I put Nurse-Bear ahead of Klefbom-Hamilton just due to reputation.

- Good question re: Jones / Bear / Nurse future contracts. The truth is that we don't know what will transpire over the next 2 years, but with Bouchard, Samorukov and Broberg coming, there are options. The Oilers will have to be very careful not to give too much AAV+term to the wrong defenseman (and maybe I've already done so with this AGM).

- I think Nurse should be treated like any other UFA - give him a fair offer akin to his abilities, but know that there are options in the marketplace. If Nurse is demanding more AAV and / or term than I'm willing to give him then I'd look at signing (say) Ekholm to a 3-year deal instead, or Giordano to a 1-year deal to see if Broberg can step up in that timeframe. There are options aplenty in 2022.