Rejoint: août 2017
Messages: 8,440
Mentions "j'aime": 6,060
Drouin was a 50 point forward while playing 16:56 per game, of which 14:01 was during even strength, 2:51 was on the PP, and 0:04 was on the PK (on average). Drouin's totals were 18G+35A=53P in 81GP. 37 of these points were scored at even strength, while 16 came on the powerplay. You made a point that MTL doesnt really have a "1st line" and balances ice time between lines more evenly than most teams, which I think is a valid point. If he were to be traded to COL, lets say he would play about the same amount (about 14 mins) during even strength playing on the 2nd line. Assuming he has the same production this would mean he would also score 37 points at even strength on the Avs. However, Drouin would not get top PP time on COL, he would likely play on the 2nd PP unit unless there was an injury to MacKinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog, or Kadri. But since COL draws more penalties (and takes more penalties) per game, lets say he would still get about 2:00 PP TOI/GP on COL. Since he would be playing with lesser players on PP2 in COL than PP1 on MTL, lets say his production rate drops to 85% of what it was in MTL. With his lesser PP TOI/GP and reduced PP production rate due to players around him, this would drop his powerplay points to about 9.5 powerplay points in a full season, but lets round it up to 10 PPP. To summarize, COL would get a 2nd line, 2nd PP winger who doesnt kill penalties who puts up 37 points at even strength, and 10 points on the powerplay for a total of 47 points in 81 games. Now lets compare this to what Donskoi and Burakovsky are on pace for in that same role:
Donskoi: 15G+15A=29P in 44GP with 16:52 TOI/GP (24 even strength points), 2:46 PP TOI/GP (5 powerplay points), 0:41 PK TOI/GP. On pace for 53 points over 81 games.
Burakovsky: 13G+15A=28P in 42GP with 14:52 TOI/GP (20 even strength points) , 2:29 PP TOI/GP (8 powerplay points), 0:00 PK TOI/GP. On pace for 54 points over 81 games.
However Donskoi and Burakovsky did get some inflated PP time due to injuries earlier in the season. To control for this lets only consider 60% of their PPP; with these adjusted totals they are still on pace for 50 points in 81 games (for Donskoi) and 48 points in 81 games (for Burakovsky). Both of their scoring outputs match/exceed Drouins projected pace on the Avs in the same role. May I remind you that Donksoi was acquired via free agency for only 3.9M AAV, and Burakovsky was acquired via trade for an AHLer, a 2nd, and a 3rd. Drouin may have a higher ceiling, but with his current production it is easy to find others that can fill the same role