OldNYIfan

First NY Then LA
Membre depuis
23 jun 2018
Équipe préférée
Ducks d'Anaheim
Deuxième équipe préférée
Kings de Los Angeles
Anniversaire
26 jan 1948
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Los Angeles
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9568
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455
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fan of a sport WITHOUT fights
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 6 heures
Sujet: Isles Match Barzal Offer Sheet
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafs_and_Sens_Fan</b></div><div>Okay sure but if we base it off real life no GM will trade #67 for #96 + #189. You might be able to move up 10 spots if you are lucky with a 7th not 30...

A late 4th doesn't move you up 30 spots in the draft to nearly a 1st round pick.

Teams have to pay a large premium to move up in the draft.

If I was Ottawa I wouldn't give up more than a 4th rounder for Ho-Sang (if Dorion felt strongly about his potential). I also realized Ottawa doesn't even have their 7th round pick.</div></div>

All reasonable points.

Look, if you want to challenge the methodology, fine; as I said previously, I get more suspicious of these valuations the lower on the chart you go. And I've espoused some opinions that, upon mature reflection and/or justified criticism, I've come to realize are simply cuckoo. But don't go around saying I'm making stuff up. That makes you look very bad when I can produce incontrovertible evidence that my contentions have a source for their authority, however questionable that authority may be. It's fine for you to opine that I shouldn't rely on this paper; it's fine for you to opine that the paper is full of beans; it's fine for you to say that no GM in his right mind would make those trades and if I think that there is, I'm nuts; but don't go around saying I'm just making stuff up.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 7 heures
Sujet: Tampa with evolving hockeys contract predictions
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JTBF81</b></div><div>Too bad Tampa has never cared what publications and/or other teams have done in regards to their contracts. Cirelli and Serg on the 3 year bridge in the 4 to 4.75 range(Cirelli 4.25 to 4.5 and Serg 4.5 to 4.75)and Cernak at max 2 for 2-3 years. Tampa is far from in for a rough one as so many seem to think. If this cbo becomes a reality, then Tampa will be fine and if not then the cap has likely increased, so either way Tampa loses a couple ancillary guys but none of the core or key young rfa's unless they want to.</div></div>

Yeah, but your figures don't seem to help much. The construction above gives the three key guys a little under $15 million and is $13 million over, and you're giving them (best case scenario) $10.5 million, so you're still $8.5 million over. It's not going to be breezy easy.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 7 heures
Sujet: Isles Match Barzal Offer Sheet
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafs_and_Sens_Fan</b></div><div>I'm not challenging the paper. But your trades aren't the same as the ones in the paper. It argues against what you are saying... you probably didn't even read it. You are delusional.</div></div>

The trades are EXACTLY what's set out in the paper, slanted towards the other team in both instances.

Ottawa's 4th = pick #96 Ottawa's 7th = pick #189*
NYI's 4th = pick #113*

Pick #96 (4th) plus pick #189 (7th) = 68 + 38 = 106 for pick #67 (3rd) = 95

Pick #67 (3rd) plus pick #113 (4th) = 95 + 57 = 152 for pick #38 (2nd) = 150

I'm just as suspicious as you about the value of the lower-range picks, so I allowed for a 10% variance there.

*Mind you, neither of these picks are in the teams' possession, but this was the parlay I was talking about. We would happily take a 2020 fourth and 2020 seventh and bootstrap that with a 2020 fourth and (according to the paper) arrive with a high second-round pick. Whether anyone would accommodate us is, of course, a different question.

P.S. {edit} Hilariously, the reason why I thought NY doesn't have a 2020 fourth is because it's the subject of this discussion and I was just looking up at this screen!
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 9 heures
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 9 heures
Sujet: Isles Match Barzal Offer Sheet
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafs_and_Sens_Fan</b></div><div>Source on the 4th and 7th getting a 3rd. Can you give examples?

Last year Pittsburgh a 4th, 5th and 7th to Arizona for a 3rd round pick

You're just making stuff up.</div></div>

See Michael Schuckers 2016 Edition Draft Pick Value Chart. Educate yourself.

Here, for example, are some recent trades validating that paper's conclusions:

2019: Kings receive #50 (2nd) for Montreal's #64 (3rd) and #126 (5th)
2019: Minnesota receives #59 (2nd) for Carolina's #73 (3rd) and #99 (4th)
2018: Pittsburgh receives #58 (2nd) for #64 (3rd) and #146 (5th)
2018: Edmonton receives #62 (2nd) for #71 (3rd) and #133 (5th)
2017: Minnesota receives #60 (2nd) for Vancouver's #71 (3rd) and #101 (4th)

and so on.

No, I'm not making stuff up. You're ignorant.