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What is Zegras worth

Équipe: 2023-24 Ducks d'Anaheim
Date de création initiale: 4 févr. 2024
Publié: 4 févr. 2024
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
I am willing to wager Zegras is moved before the draft.
Although I am not a huge fan, I definitely see high value of him for the Ducks.
HOWEVER, I personally wouldn't trade a 1-10 overall pick for him.
But I do think he is worth at least 2 pieces.
My thoughts:
Question to Anaheim fans (who are probably all sleeping right now),
Which deal do you prefer?
Transactions
1.
ANA
  1. Miroshnichenko, Ivan
  2. Choix de 1e ronde en 2025 (WSH)
  3. Choix de 2e ronde en 2025 (COL)
Détails additionnels:
You're not going to get Ryan Leonard from Wsh.
Washington would gamble here that their pick is not Top 10.
Therefore I would say that the 2d round is conditional. If the 1st rounder is top 10 Washington keeps their 2d round pick
2.
ANA
  1. Pickering, Owen
  2. Choix de 2e ronde en 2026 (PIT)
Détails additionnels:
I don't think you'll get Braden Yager. But if so it would be 1 for 1
PIT
    Zegras
    3.
    ANA
    1. Kotkaniemi, Jesperi
    2. Choix de 1e ronde en 2024 (CAR)
    Détails additionnels:
    This one is super tricky. Depends on how Verbeek sees KK.
    Personally I think KK will never be a 50pt player.
    But, if Verbeek sees a future 2d line center, this could be interesting.
    Pick is Lottery protected (not that I think it matters)
    CAR
      Zegras
      4.
      ANA
      1. Harris, Jordan
      2. Choix de 1e ronde en 2024 (WPG)
      Détails additionnels:
      Again, trading away a 16-32 pick because I really dont think Zegras is worth a top-10 pick.
      MTL
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        4 févr. à 5 h 57
        #1
        HuGo is a Boss GM
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        Nope!
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        4 févr. à 6 h 21
        #2
        Démarrer sujet
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        Quoting: jonh514
        Nope!


        tx for your worthless contribution
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        4 févr. à 7 h 1
        #3
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        I think you have some pretty skewed perceptions of values of players. Value is somewhat tied to personal preference so I could understand some variation, but this feels like it's really quite far off base, in my opinion. For example:

        What makes Pickering worth as much as Mirosnichenko & a 1st?
        What makes Harris worth more than Mirosnichenko & a 2nd?
        You don't think Zegras is worth more than Yager?

        If I were to guess, ANA fans will think these are all well short.
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        4 févr. à 7 h 5
        #4
        You know nothing JS
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        Only comparable is Laine (and/or Dubois), which isn't very usefull: a young elite player with motivation issues for a young elite player with motivation issues.

        You could also argue, based on stats, that Zegras is worth double Dach's cost.

        So another problematic top 10 player or 2x1st+2nd seems fair. None of those 3x1st or blue chip prospect.

        Based on this price, PIT and MTL are under market, WAS is on the spot and CAR is overpaying.

        One thing for sure, I'm not factoring in any michigan goal in the equation.
        4 févr. à 7 h 5
        #5
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        We accept none of these

        Z’s value is one thing and then what we would trade him for is another

        We are not shopping Zegras, we need to be blown away to trade him

        It’s also funny because all your trades are completely different values — Washington has like 3 times the value to us than that terrible Pittsburg deal
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        4 févr. à 7 h 18
        #6
        You know nothing JS
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        Quoting: SupremeBone
        I think you have some pretty skewed perceptions of values of players. Value is somewhat tied to personal preference so I could understand some variation, but this feels like it's really quite far off base, in my opinion. For example:

        What makes Pickering worth as much as Mirosnichenko & a 1st?
        What makes Harris worth more than Mirosnichenko & a 2nd?
        You don't think Zegras is worth more than Yager?

        If I were to guess, ANA fans will think these are all well short.


        IMO a good way to attribute value to very young players is based on draft rank. After all a lot of very good player evaluators made that order not so long ago.

        You can then divide the top 3, top 10ish, lower 1st, very low 1st/2nd and the others.

        I know not all drafts are equal in talent depth, but you'll never convince a GM that the player they drafted 1st overall is only worth a no 9 pick of the next year...

        As I explained up here, I think Zegras, as a meh top 10, should return the same or two 10th-25th picks/players. Harris isn't that lol.
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        4 févr. à 7 h 28
        #7
        HuGo is a Boss GM
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        Quoting: Ste_Catherine_Street
        tx for your worthless contribution


        Sorry. He's worth a LOT more. These are one-sided and show a misunderstanding on your part of what a player with his pedigree and production in the first 2 years of his career are worth.
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        4 févr. à 8 h 3
        #8
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        Quoting: jpsnow13
        IMO a good way to attribute value to very young players is based on draft rank. After all a lot of very good player evaluators made that order not so long ago.

        You can then divide the top 3, top 10ish, lower 1st, very low 1st/2nd and the others.

        I know not all drafts are equal in talent depth, but you'll never convince a GM that the player they drafted 1st overall is only worth a no 9 pick of the next year...

        As I explained up here, I think Zegras, as a meh top 10, should return the same or two 10th-25th picks/players. Harris isn't that lol.


        Ok but Zegras was drafted 9th ovr.

        I guess Im wrong here. Everyone is telling me he's worth a lot more. But ya, I would say I have a lower value of him I guess.

        Personally, I wouldn't trade a top10 pick or grade A+ prospects like Ryan Loanard 1 for 1, but I guess I'm running against traffic on this one.

        Quoting: GeneralLandro
        We accept none of these

        Z’s value is one thing and then what we would trade him for is another

        We are not shopping Zegras, we need to be blown away to trade him

        It’s also funny because all your trades are completely different values — Washington has like 3 times the value to us than that terrible Pittsburg deal


        Maybe I value Pickering too highly. But yea, I truely think that Washington deal is 100% fair value for Z.

        I get ANA 'says' they're not shopping him, but I still think he'll be traded by the draft.
        4 févr. à 8 h 36
        #9
        Hooskerdu
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        Putting aside the weirdness of another deal with Philly, how about Cam York, Florida’s 2024 first and Anaheim’s 2025 second back for Zegras? The Flyers need centers and have some left side D prospect depth to fill the void created by dealing York. If you look at the two deals holistically, it would be Gauthier, York and Florida’s first for Zegras and Drysdale, which seems fair. If (and it’s a big if) the Ducks decide to deal Zegras, what would they be looking for in return ideally?
        4 févr. à 8 h 50
        #10
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        Quoting: GeneralLandro
        We accept none of these

        Z’s value is one thing and then what we would trade him for is another

        We are not shopping Zegras, we need to be blown away to trade him

        It’s also funny because all your trades are completely different values — Washington has like 3 times the value to us than that terrible Pittsburg deal


        On a slightly different note, would you package him with your 1st for 1OA (assuming ANA doesn’t win the lottery)?
        4 févr. à 10 h 11
        #11
        Once a Kings Fan Too
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        Well, the problem is that you don't think that Trevor Zegras is worth a top 10 pick any more, and I think that Cole Caufield is.
        4 févr. à 10 h 17
        #12
        MisstheWhalers
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        I think Zegras is worth 5 pieces, signed and still RFA after his contract ends adds a lot of value, he's gotta be worth more then whats posted here.
        4 févr. à 10 h 20
        #13
        Habs 2010
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        Modifié 4 févr. à 10 h 47
        Would you trade Cole Caufield for any of these packages? That is basically what Zegras is worth.

        For reference to this year's draft, Zegras is worth somewhere around 6 to 9th overall.
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        4 févr. à 10 h 37
        #14
        You know nothing JS
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        Quoting: Ste_Catherine_Street
        Ok but Zegras was drafted 9th ovr.

        I guess Im wrong here. Everyone is telling me he's worth a lot more. But ya, I would say I have a lower value of him


        If he was as great as all the fans thought, Verbeek wouldn't put him on the market. He's damaged good and nobody is overpaying a motivelated seller.
        4 févr. à 10 h 52
        #15
        Banni
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        Quoting: GeneralLandro
        We accept none of these

        Z’s value is one thing and then what we would trade him for is another

        We are not shopping Zegras, we need to be blown away to trade him

        It’s also funny because all your trades are completely different values — Washington has like 3 times the value to us than that terrible Pittsburg deal


        I thought it was reported that Verbeek is not actively shopping him, but listening/considering on offers for Zegras?

        In general I think gauging Zegras' value is hard at the moment for a few reasons...

        1) He's only 22, so he's still in that developmental stage of his career.
        2) Small-ish sample size with only two full-seasons under his belt with respectable numbers, and then falls off a cliff this year.
        3) He's surrounded by other young talent that are thriving despite playing on a poor team, so what does that say about him?

        IMO he's a coin-flip. In two years from now he could be putting up 30 goals and 90 points, or he could be exactly what he is this season, so I think keeping him is a gamble if you consider what you could get for him right now vs. if he continues to fall of a cliff. From the perspective from a team trading for him, he's a gamble. Giving up top assets for a player who may just need a change of scenery and different system, but on the hook for almost $6M for two more years if he really is what he is now.

        The deals above are all over the place.
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        4 févr. à 10 h 55
        #16
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        Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
        I thought it was reported that Verbeek is not actively shopping him, but listening/considering on offers for Zegras?

        In general I think gauging Zegras' value is hard at the moment for a few reasons...

        1) He's only 22, so he's still in that developmental stage of his career.
        2) Small-ish sample size with only two full-seasons under his belt with respectable numbers ,and then falls off a cliff this year.
        3) He's surrounded by other young talent that are thriving despite playing on a poor team, so what does that say about him?

        IMO he's a coin-flip. In two years from now he could be putting up 30 goals and 90 points, or he could be exactly what he is this season, so I think keeping him is a gamble if you consider what you could get for him right now vs. if he continues to fall of a cliff. From the perspective from a team trading for him, he's a gamble. Giving up top assets for a player who may just need a change of scenery and different system, but on the hook for almost $6M for two more years.

        The deals above are all over the place.


        Yes he is listening as is every GM’s job and why all of us Anaheim guys say he is so expensive on here

        We think it needs to be one of those trades that you can’t say no to
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        4 févr. à 11 h 10
        #17
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        Only deals I think make sense to trade Zegras for are other young players with high end potential. Kent Johnson, David Jiricek from Columbus would be a couple examples. A deal similar to the Drysdale deal.
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        4 févr. à 11 h 23
        #18
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        Here are a few one could use as baseline…then dial up/down as needed

        Dach trade - One high pick at draft, plus another piece. (Also coming off an injury)

        Drouin/Sergachev trade - straight-up for good young dman (Byram maybe..Fehervary..Nikishin)

        Turris trade - for high-end prospect and 2nd (Rundblad flamed out…so hard example…but was very highly regarded at time…and Zergras is better than Turris)

        Seguin trade - 4-for-3 swap all players…if Ducks wanted only young bodies back.

        Kessel first trade - two 1sts and 2nd…if Ducks only wanted future picks back (picks were all a year or two out at time).

        Could also use the Laine/Dubois trade, which was in a way a reincarnation of the Strome/Schmaltz trade.
        4 févr. à 11 h 27
        #19
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        Quoting: OldNYIfan
        Well, the problem is that you don't think that Trevor Zegras is worth a top 10 pick any more, and I think that Cole Caufield is.


        Quoting: GeneralLandro
        Yes he is listening as is every GM’s job and why all of us Anaheim guys say he is so expensive on here

        We think it needs to be one of those trades that you can’t say no to


        What about Jiricek for Zegras one-for-one? Has that been brought up before?

        (with maybe another minor piece or two to balance salary, positional depth)
        4 févr. à 11 h 48
        #20
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        Quoting: NHLfan10506
        What about Jiricek for Zegras one-for-one? Has that been brought up before?

        (with maybe another minor piece or two to balance salary, positional depth)


        I wonder, Zegras + Zellweger for Jiricek + Johnson. What are your thoughts on that?
        4 févr. à 12 h 4
        #21
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        Quoting: Lancebmx
        I wonder, Zegras + Zellweger for Jiricek + Johnson. What are your thoughts on that?


        I like it. Ducks probably have to add a little since Johnson has proved himself a bit more than Zellweger in NHL.
        4 févr. à 12 h 12
        #22
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        Quoting: NHLfan10506
        I like it. Ducks probably have to add a little since Johnson has proved himself a bit more than Zellweger in NHL.


        Posted a AGM to get discussion going on it.
        4 févr. à 12 h 17
        #23
        Lets Get Kraken
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        Once Zegras shows that he isn’t just a one hit wonder with fancy hands, and actually starts playing to a degree with consistency where these offers aren’t ridiculous overpayments, teams will make these offers. Useless defensively, injured, unmotivated, and we saw a little bit of diva action in contract negotiations, much like how Nylander went, his value can’t be any lower with the season he has had so far.

        Give a product worth investing in, and teams will be willing to invest in it. As it stands, way too much risk to spend major assets on a guy, whilst very talented with his hands, who isn’t a lock to develop into the 30g 90p guy people want, or if what he has shown this season is his true form. Marketability only goes so far in terms of value.
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        4 févr. à 12 h 23
        #24
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        Quoting: Lancebmx
        I wonder, Zegras + Zellweger for Jiricek + Johnson. What are your thoughts on that?


        Jiricek is worth more than zegras but barely
        And Johnson is worth more than zellweger. Columbus needs rd more than forwards so they’re not gonna trade him until he physically comes out and says trade me.
        4 févr. à 12 h 40
        #25
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        Quoting: evelutions2
        Once Zegras shows that he isn’t just a one hit wonder with fancy hands, and actually starts playing to a degree with consistency where these offers aren’t ridiculous overpayments, teams will make these offers. Useless defensively, injured, unmotivated, and we saw a little bit of diva action in contract negotiations, much like how Nylander went, his value can’t be any lower with the season he has had so far.

        Give a product worth investing in, and teams will be willing to invest in it. As it stands, way too much risk to spend major assets on a guy, whilst very talented with his hands, who isn’t a lock to develop into the 30g 90p guy people want, or if what he has shown this season is his true form. Marketability only goes so far in terms of value.


        Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But I have seen the complaints about American-born players for years and most of the time, it’s just noise.

        Zegras is a showboat. Hughes can’t stay on his stakes. Eiserman is unmotivated. Matthews is lazy. Caufield is too small. Cooley is all offense. Kane is entitled. Kessel only eats hot dogs. Eichel is selfish.

        It’s all nonsense
         
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