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Shanesaw9

Habs 2010
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10 mai 2020
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Canadiens de Montréal
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Forum: Armchair-GM14 mai à 7 h 24
Sujet: Minnesota
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LIRIK</b></div><div>How many of those UFA would really sign in MTL? Fiala would HAVE to sign here, as he is a RFA. We tried with Hall in 2020, Panarin in 2019, Perron in 2018 and Radulov in 2017.

I don't think trading Calgary's 1st would really hurt our prospect pool. Giving it to upgrade from Dvorak to Fiala would be worth it IMO. He's not only a winger, he's the perfect winger for Suzuki and Caufield.</div></div>

It's not even about these UFA's, you're missing the point entirely... those are just the most obvious examples I can look at as to what could be available in response to <a href="/users/Caerii" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Caerii</a> 's question. Once you factor in RFA's and any other winger that's name is out there in the trade market and it's clear there will be players available every year. The point is that your claim that "He's the perfect fit for Suzuki and Caufield, might not get a chance like that for another few years." is simply untrue. There is always the chance to add good player's ever single year.
Forum: Armchair-GM13 mai à 16 h 1
Sujet: Minnesota
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caerii</b></div><div>What? Who are the Fiala's available every year?</div></div>

Fiala is a trade target, but just looking at UFA's (and narrowing it down to ~ PPG wingers, not top C or D:
2022: Johnny Gaudreau, Filip Forsberg, Claude Giroux, Evander Kane
2020: Taylor Hall
2019: Artemi Panarin
2018: David Perron
2017: Alexander Radulov

That's just UFA's not even looking at RFA's or players that were traded, Marc Stone, Max Pacioretty, Anthony Mantha just 3 off the top of head in 10 seconds.

2023: Patrick Kane? Vladimir Taresenko? Max Pacioretty? Timmo Meier? David Pastrnak? Jonathan Huberdeau? JT Miller? Joe Pavelski? Tyler Bertuzzi?

Some of these UFA wingers will be available for sure and if you don't blow $7M and your 1st round pick maybe you'll have the money and an exciting up and coming group to add one.

The point is, there are high end players on the move every single season. Next season is not the time for MTL to be looking at this IMO, there cap situation is a mess right now.

Edit: Additionally MTL may have bigger needs at RD or defense than wing in a year, who knows. Sometimes things don't work out, but it's much less of a hot take than "there might never be another Kevin Fiala".

Edit 2.0: I'd rather keep CGY's 1st round pick, hope Dvorak has a good year and then sell him for assets and then sign JT Miller as he can play LW with Suzuki and Caufield or he could play C if Wright isn't ready for 2C. That would be a way better scenerio. If not Miller there is the Quebec native Huberdeau, former captain Pacioretty (would be great with Suzuki and Caufield), Meier is a beast and still young he'd be the ideal wing for Suzuki and Caufield likely. Tarasenko also a top winger. So many options, and those are just free agents not even trades.
Forum: Armchair-GM13 mai à 14 h 25
Sujet: Minnesota
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LIRIK</b></div><div>And then wait how many years until another winger of that caliber is available? He's the perfect fit for Suzuki and Caufield, might not get a chance like that for another few years.

I don't think Romanov would sign for less than 5M on a long term contract, and i'm not ready to give him that money yet.

Habs could move one of Hoffman, Byron or Armia, attached to Weber's contract sent to AZ. Or just pay a mid rounder to dump one of those contract.

I think with that defense, they still get a top 10 pick next year.</div></div>

There are Fiala's available every single year, in free agency no less which wouldn't cost any assets if you manage your cap properly. Also have you considered Joshua Roy, Sean Farrell, Heineman, and whoever else they might draft this year (and next year if they get another high pick)?

Romanov has averaged like 11 pts / 82 games so far in his career. He isn't eligible for arbitration or an offersheet (so even you bridge at $3M seems high) he has no leverage. Based on what comparable do you think Romanov would sign for more than $5M? Pesce signed for $4M x 6 yrs. I think Romanov could be signed for 6 - 8 years at $4M - $4.5M aav.

Hughes has already said he will not be giving up assets to get rid of contracts and I agree. Wait a year and these contracts are easier to move (because they are shorter) and the players might even increase their value (surely can't get any worse after last season). Also for what purpose would AZ take Weber right now? They already took on a LTIR contract and Weber wasn't it. ARZ would be doing MTL a favour by getting them out of LTIR not the other way around (see how we have &gt; $1M in bonus overages from last year because of this?).

If you think this team is still a bottom 10 then why on earth are you trading for a $7M winger next season. You might as well finish bottom 5!
Forum: Armchair-GM13 mai à 14 h 7
Sujet: Minnesota
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LIRIK</b></div><div>Habs don't need to trade a center, but one of Minnesota need is a top 6 center. If MTL wants Fiala, they might have to give Dvorak.

In the last 10 years, every 1st overall pick made the NHL right away except Power.

If you look at my team, i managed to fit everyone under next year's 82.5M cap.</div></div>

Yeah and Hughes + Lafreniere both struggled mightily as rookies, they were both more valuable prospects than Wright and they didnt miss an entire year of development. I'm not saying Wright won't make it but making a trade like this prematurely assuming he is ready puts unfair expectations on him.

You made it under $82.5M with $35k to spair lol. If you wanted to call up Guhle over Wideman you don't even have the space! You also underpaid Pitlick and failed to lock up Romanov to a long term contract at a reasonable cap hit and you're only running a 22 man roster. For what? So we can trade Dvorak and a 1st round pick for Fiala? Keep the 1st round pick (and the cap space). Trade Dvorak when the time is right, you claim he performed better under St. Louis, well what would an entire season under St. Louis do for his value? MTL is entering a transition year. They need bring there players value back and sell off what they can. Have another good draft, once they get cap space they can make some big moves to add to their young core.
Forum: Armchair-GM13 mai à 8 h 4
Sujet: 1 and 33 for Dubois and 14
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Windjammer</b></div><div>Don't forget, most fans extremely overrate draft picks, so that's the main reason people think it's fair.

Dubois is a proven player. What has Wright done to be worth more is the better question.
</div></div>

This isn't even about Dubois vs Wright as a player. There are huge cap implications to a trade like this for MTL. MTL has already maxed out their cap (I have no idea how OP thinks we can fit Dubois next year they should have used 2022-23 as the year for this post), and they just finished 32nd in the NHL.

There is no way this trade puts them into contender status, so why make it can put yourself in salary cap hell? Keep the pick, and you have an ELC player for 3 years, ideally by the time this player gets a new contract you are a contender. The 1st overall pick fits MTL's timeline so much better than Dubois.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 mai à 20 h 9
Sujet: 1 and 33 for Dubois and 14
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Certainly no team is giving up the first overall pick. PLD was the 49th highest scoring centre.....a solid 2nd line centre.
Virtually no team....at least most good teams...or late first rounders have the cap to acquire Perty without giving cap. Petry's "trade" value isn't that high.</div></div>

I think Dallas could be a fit if they lose Klingberg. There aren't many top 4 RD's in free agency so there would be a market for Petry who was back to his 50 pt pace under St. Louis.

MTL is already operating in LTIR so they could take back Bishop and Khudobin (who may be playing again next season). This would free up $3.3M in cap space for Dallas and get them out of LTIR so they can accumulate cap space &amp; avoid performance bonus overages.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 mai à 20 h 0
Sujet: 1 and 33 for Dubois and 14
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dickie_boon</b></div><div>shane wright will probably be on that level in a couple years unnecessary</div></div>

Exactly and he will be on an ELC for 3 years while Dubois is making big money... this is the same mistake as trading Sergachev for Drouin there are other cap implications which cost MTL Radulov and Markov that year, let alone trading their top prospect.

This would be the worst thing they could do with this pick.

Edit: Also if you use the proper year there is no way they fit Dubois under the cap without making other moves (they don't know as of now if Price will be on LTIR)... cap implications need to be considered in a trade like this, even if they make it work they won't be competitive, you don't want to be maxed out at the cap when you aren't ready to compete.
Forum: NHL Signings22 mars à 11 h 48
Sujet: Carolina Hurricanes signed Jesperi Kotkaniemi (8 Years / $4,820,000 AAV)
I see a lot of comments about an overpaid 4th line C, or how KK has not progressed with Carolina.

Calling KK a 4th line C is disingenuous, he is a 4th line C in Carolina but not around the league. Remember when everyone was making armchair gm teams where they had to put together a team using only players from one team per position? I remember a lot of people choosing Carolina's Aho Trocheck Staal (and Necas).

Also, KK is having a career year right now (career high in goals and a P/60 of 1.95, he previously had a 1.9 as a rookie, a 1.0 in a bad sophomore year, and a 1.4 last season). The only difference is he is getting a career low icetime in Carolina.

In my opinion Carolina bamboozled Bergevin and they also bamboozled KK (by limiting his role this season). I suspect moving forward KK will be a 2C for the Canes, at worst a 3C. $4.8M will be the going rate for good 3C's over the life of that contract, and if KK succeeds in becoming a top 6 C then it will be a steal.

Good signing by the Canes.
Forum: Armchair-GM17 mars à 11 h 54
Sujet: Habs TDL 22
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>It's rare! The trouble is, Kulak's playoff record is pretty poor. I don't know why Holland would even be having the conversation.</div></div>

Kulak played really good the year MTL made the playoffs as a 24th seed, he stepped up on a team that already sold their depth. Last year he was pushed out for the likes of Gustafsson... which is more of a reflection of Ducharme as a coach than Kulak IMO, he's looked good under St. Louis again. There's times where he looks like a 2nd pair PMD and then other times where he looks like a replacement level guy, a non factor. Pretty typical depth D.

Still you are right it's an overpay, looking at the history of depth D trades a 3rd would be a really nice return for MTL, a 4th would be fair IMO, a 5th acceptable if it's the best they get.
Forum: Carolina Hurricanes12 mars à 11 h 30
Sujet: KK Discussion
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jr400</b></div><div>I think that’s the second-biggest off-season question that keeps Don Waddell up at night. (The biggest is what to do with DeAngelo, given the risk that he could earn big money in arbitration.) I’m sure they’d like to keep Kotkaniemi, not because they gave up a lot to get him – they would cut their losses if they thought they’d made a bad decision – but because of what he’s shown this season and the fact that he’s young enough (21) that he may still have more upside. The problem is the qualifying offer. They knew they were overpaying him when they signed him – Waddell referred to his $6.1M salary as “acquisition cost” – and although he has shown that he belongs in the NHL, I don’t think he’s shown (yet) that he is or ever will be worth more than $6M per year.

Carolina may have a Plan A and a Plan B. I’ll talk about Plan B first. Plan B would be that they qualify him and request arbitration. This would probably lead him to accept the qualifying offer, because he isn’t likely to get $6M in arbitration (somebody told me that the arbitrators don’t consider the qualifying offer – they only look at the contracts of comparable players), so Carolina overpays him for one more season – Waddell would probably call it “retention cost” this time – to see if he can grow into his salary and be a solid #2 center with Trocheck leaving as a UFA.

I’m calling that Plan B because I think Carolina would prefer not to have it get to that point. My Plan A would be to try to sign him to a multi-year extension at a lower AAV before they have to decide whether to make him a qualifying offer. Teravainen is at $5.4M AAV so I think they’d like to get Kotkaniemi under that. That could also help with the Necas negotiations because Necas could argue that he should be paid more than KK. Why would KK take a pay cut? Because if they don’t qualify him, he becomes a UFA but the $6.1M that he’s making now means nothing. He’ll get whatever he’s worth on the open market, which is not going to be as much. Even if he thinks that they are going to qualify him, accepting the qualifying offer would give him another one-year contract with no guarantees after that. He might prefer the security of a multi-year contract to the uncertainty of going year by year.</div></div>

Looks like they are going with plan A, KK is reportedly going to be extending to an 8 year × $4 - $4.5M deal with the Canes.

If this is true I don't get this at all from KK's camp, why would a 21 year old not be betting on himself? He's performed extremely well in a limited role for Carolina, he is on pace for 35 Pts playing 12 min / game, if he got 16 / min a game he could be on pace for 47 pts (maybe even more with better quality linemates). 50 pts for a 21 year old is pretty good, it's worth $4M. So why would KK's camp already be prepared to sign an 8 year deal at that AAV? Just seems off to me that KK and his agents don't think his game has more potential.
Forum: Carolina Hurricanes3 mars à 23 h 55
Sujet: KK Discussion
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Daredevil514</b></div><div>I think it's way too soon to analyze the "St-Louis effect" because it's just normal and prooven that à confidence boost can be seen when somebody New arrive now matter who he is. A 5 game stretch is impressive but way to small of a sample. If St-louis concepts and philosophy proves to be solid over a long stretch than yeah KK is the exact type of player who could benefit from it.</div></div>

I don't know, I think when a team goes from the worst season in franchise history to a .600 point % with a 6 - 1 - 0 record in the last 7 games (after St. Louis had a week of coaching) then the coach deserves a lot of credit.

This team is playing some really good hockey - they went from "unwatchable" to "must see". I'm already sold on St. Louis, an outstanding hire by Hughes.
Forum: Carolina Hurricanes3 mars à 12 h 42
Forum: Carolina Hurricanes3 mars à 12 h 37
Sujet: KK Discussion
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jet11567</b></div><div>They did this to purely stick it to the habs and it clearly worked you went from a stanley cup finalist to worst team in the league…..lol</div></div>

I think there are a lot more factors that go into that than losing KK, the team has a .555 point % under St. Louis and are 5 - 1 - 0 in their last 6 games... which included a 5-2 spanking of the leafs by the way.

I'm looking for some feedback from actual Canes fans not leafs trolls, I could go all day with you on how Toronto just got blown out by Buffalo (losing to a 40+ year old goalie for the first time since a Zamboni driver beat them) or how they almost blew a 7-2 lead to Detroit, or how they don't have a playoff series win since 2004... but that would be getting off topic so let's stick to the discussion on KK please ;)
Forum: Carolina Hurricanes3 mars à 12 h 20
Sujet: KK Discussion
Habs fan coming in peace: I got thinking about how KK could have looked under a coach like St. Louis and I want to know what's the deal with Jesperi Kotkaniemi?

He is having a career year (2.2 P/60 and 11 goals already, his rookie season with MTL he had 1.9 P/60 and 11 goals total), yet his average icetime is a career low, 12:07.

I know Carolina has a deep team, but it still doesn't explain to me why a player that is performing this well (and a player that is young and still improving) is 12th in ATOI for forwards, not to mention Carolina invested a 1st, 3rd, and $6.1M (7.5% of the cap, 3rd highest on the team) in this player. So what's going on? Is this a tactic for a contract negotiation, is Carolina trying to limit KK's value? Does Rod not like him as a player?

What is the plan for KK after his one year deal expires?
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