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2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #2: Early Overreactions

12 déc. 2023 à 9 h 23
#626
Ban Price trades
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
Comparing "starts"

Player A
-- O-zone: 23%
-- N-zone: 20%
-- D-zone: 8%
-- On-the-fly: 49%

Player B
-- O-zone: 22%
-- N-zone: 14%
-- D-zone: 5%
-- On-the-fly: 59%

Player C
-- O-zone: 22%
-- N-zone: 18%
-- D-zone: 16%
-- On-the-fly: 44%

Player D
-- O-zone: 20%
-- N-zone: 17%
-- D-zone: 13%
-- On-the-fly: 50%

Player E
-- O-zone: 21%
-- N-zone: 17%
-- D-zone: 6%
-- On-the-fly: 55%

Player F
-- O-zone: 25%
-- N-zone: 11%
-- D-zone: 8%
-- On-the-fly: 56%

Which is the best player?
If a team uses a player less frequently in o-zone, does that make them a more superior offensive player?
How many players pick where on the ice they get to start their shift? And do they prefer d-zone?
If a player leads NHL in successful zone-entries, do you want him starting off a whistle?


"Best" is a really poor question here. Best at what?

If I want to start a player in all situations - perhaps up or down a goal at the end of the game - I'm going to look to player C (looks like an all situations type) to be on the ice. If I need to establish offense, I'm looking at player A as the sum of their offensive starts and neutral starts suggests a player that's leaned on to drive possession towards the other net. Player F looks like the ideal candidate to hit the ice following a penalty kill as their high OTF starts and offensive starts show a player that can swing momentum. You can't derive "best" from usage stats.

You're really quick to defend against any Hughes v Draisaitl discourse but I don't think you understood the point of my retort: Hughes is a phenomenal player, but to hold him in high esteem while negging on Draisaitl seems ridiculous as you can almost do a one-to-one comparison of each player's flaws. That's the only point I wanted to make. Draisaitl has, since he broke out, been made out to he nothing more than a powerplay merchant and a product of McDavid: he's a great player in his own right and wholly deserving of a place within the top-10 in the league. Hughes is right in that conversation with him.
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12 déc. 2023 à 9 h 30
#627
Leafs going to Leafs
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
Comparing "starts"

Player A
-- O-zone: 23%
-- N-zone: 20%
-- D-zone: 8%
-- On-the-fly: 49%

Player B
-- O-zone: 22%
-- N-zone: 14%
-- D-zone: 5%
-- On-the-fly: 59%

Player C
-- O-zone: 22%
-- N-zone: 18%
-- D-zone: 16%
-- On-the-fly: 44%

Player D
-- O-zone: 20%
-- N-zone: 17%
-- D-zone: 13%
-- On-the-fly: 50%

Player E
-- O-zone: 21%
-- N-zone: 17%
-- D-zone: 6%
-- On-the-fly: 55%

Player F
-- O-zone: 25%
-- N-zone: 11%
-- D-zone: 8%
-- On-the-fly: 56%

Which is the best player?
If a team uses a player less frequently in o-zone, does that make them a more superior offensive player?
How many players pick where on the ice they get to start their shift? And do they prefer d-zone?
If a player leads NHL in successful zone-entries, do you want him starting off a whistle?


Jack Hughes

-- O-zone: 20.8%
-- Neutral zone: 13.2%
-- D-zone: 3.7%
-- On the fly: 62.3%

https://www.moneypuck.com/stats.htm

That ranks Hughes 729th in D-zone starts...
12 déc. 2023 à 10 h 45
#628
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
"Best" is a really poor question here. Best at what?

If I want to start a player in all situations - perhaps up or down a goal at the end of the game - I'm going to look to player C (looks like an all situations type) to be on the ice. If I need to establish offense, I'm looking at player A as the sum of their offensive starts and neutral starts suggests a player that's leaned on to drive possession towards the other net. Player F looks like the ideal candidate to hit the ice following a penalty kill as their high OTF starts and offensive starts show a player that can swing momentum. You can't derive "best" from usage stats.

You're really quick to defend against any Hughes v Draisaitl discourse but I don't think you understood the point of my retort: Hughes is a phenomenal player, but to hold him in high esteem while negging on Draisaitl seems ridiculous as you can almost do a one-to-one comparison of each player's flaws. That's the only point I wanted to make. Draisaitl has, since he broke out, been made out to he nothing more than a powerplay merchant and a product of McDavid: he's a great player in his own right and wholly deserving of a place within the top-10 in the league. Hughes is right in that conversation with him.


Quoting: Leafsfan98
Jack Hughes

-- O-zone: 20.8%
-- Neutral zone: 13.2%
-- D-zone: 3.7%
-- On the fly: 62.3%

https://www.moneypuck.com/stats.htm

That ranks Hughes 729th in D-zone starts...


Using deployment % to compare two players on different teams is a flawed starting point.

Deployment on the ice is more a reflection of that player's skills and effectiveness compared to and in relationship to his available teammates based on shifts, game situations, opponents, and coaching tactics.

Because Draisatl is an elite offensive player his coach is going to use him accordingly. Hyman is a well above average defensive winger so he is going to be more utilized in a defensive zone (he also is a good offensive player so he will be used there too). All coaches and GMs try to build their roster around maximizing their players best attributes to achieve the team's highest and best performance.

I do not rate Draisatl very high as an effective two-way player; based on all the games I've watched so I'm not saying he would be if used there more often. But he is like Ovechkin or Pastrnak as a goal-scorer but can win 60% faceoffs and is an elite passer like Kucherov/Panarin. I don't see him as an "elite center" but he is an elite player because his "position" is more of a role and not an assignment as we traditionally think of them; this is why the Oilers seem to move him around with different linemates and the chemistry doens't always work out. He is an extremely perfect complementary player with McDavid which is not as easy as people think.

Nate MacKinnon is not a two-way player either, but he is so elite at transitioning from zone to zone and has such high-end skating and puck skills that it dwarfs that one area of his game; and he usually has complimentary wingers to ensure he can do that effectively and consistently. He does things that very few can do and trying to turn him in to something he isn't would only backfire.

It's apples and oranges.

Barkov is really great at all areas of the game, but he isn't in that elite goal-scorer or elite speedster/puckhandler category so he never gets mentioned as a "top 5" player in the world. Maybe he ranks 15th in everything (just throwing out numbers) but would be 10th overall if you could aggregrate someone and weigh all the variables that make a hockey player good (we can't).

McDavid, Draisatl, Matthews, Bedard, Crosby, MacKinnon, Makar, Kucherov, Panarin, Hughes, Hughes all have elite of the elite skills in certain areas of the game; best in the world shots or skating or puckhandling or vision or passing or playmaking (not the same thing as passing).

The closest player to "perfect" (across the board in all situations and with elite skills in every area) that I've seen play in the past 20 years or so was peak Crosby. Right now I would say that Makar is the closest (his shot being the one area that doesn't compare to other elite shooters, but he is near-elite there too). McDavid is a much better pure skater, puck handler than Crosby was but he is nowhere near the defensive awareness that Crosby had at that point (basically when it gets "in tight" going backwards his skating becomes a skill that doesn't factor in as much; same for MacKinnon).

Peak Crosby could make just about anyone on his line into an all-star.

"Best Player" is such a subjective title but I view it as the one player that you would trust in any situation, either game 7 of a series or carrying a team thru the long regular season grind and playoffs; or in a single game down by a goal or up by a goal or 5, taking the pressure minutes and turning out diamonds.

I don't know that Jack Hughes is in that category for me in the current NHL yet. He certainly has the skills and tools; but it's more than just the individual skills, its the sum of the parts and whether or not it makes the players around them much better. His highlights are great, but I just need to see it mature into an overall elite effective game before I would annoint him into top 5 status.

If you were to reset the NHL and re-draft the entire league without contracts or cap hits and you only get to play for 1 full season and playoffs this way (you lose all your players and we reset the next year).
Assuming everyone is 100% healthy to start the season. You, as the GM, only get paid if you win the cup (first you have to get there); which players would go in the top 5 of the draft?

For me, top 4 is "easy":
Makar
McDavid
MacKinnon
Vasilevskiy

#5 is where it gets so hard (not in ranked order):
Draisatl
Kucherov
Pastrnak
Matthews

These guys are probably just a notch below the group above but so close:
Crosby
Eichel
Barkov
Rantanen
J. Hughes
Panarin
Hedman
McAvoy
Doughty
Sorokin
Shesterkin
Hellebuyck
M. Tkachuk
Landeskog
Stone
Q. Hughes
Fox
Josi
12 déc. 2023 à 11 h 54
#629
Leafs going to Leafs
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Quoting: HockeyScotty
Using deployment % to compare two players on different teams is a flawed starting point.

Deployment on the ice is more a reflection of that player's skills and effectiveness compared to and in relationship to his available teammates based on shifts, game situations, opponents, and coaching tactics.

Because Draisatl is an elite offensive player his coach is going to use him accordingly. Hyman is a well above average defensive winger so he is going to be more utilized in a defensive zone (he also is a good offensive player so he will be used there too). All coaches and GMs try to build their roster around maximizing their players best attributes to achieve the team's highest and best performance.

I do not rate Draisatl very high as an effective two-way player; based on all the games I've watched so I'm not saying he would be if used there more often. But he is like Ovechkin or Pastrnak as a goal-scorer but can win 60% faceoffs and is an elite passer like Kucherov/Panarin. I don't see him as an "elite center" but he is an elite player because his "position" is more of a role and not an assignment as we traditionally think of them; this is why the Oilers seem to move him around with different linemates and the chemistry doens't always work out. He is an extremely perfect complementary player with McDavid which is not as easy as people think.

Nate MacKinnon is not a two-way player either, but he is so elite at transitioning from zone to zone and has such high-end skating and puck skills that it dwarfs that one area of his game; and he usually has complimentary wingers to ensure he can do that effectively and consistently. He does things that very few can do and trying to turn him in to something he isn't would only backfire.

It's apples and oranges.

Barkov is really great at all areas of the game, but he isn't in that elite goal-scorer or elite speedster/puckhandler category so he never gets mentioned as a "top 5" player in the world. Maybe he ranks 15th in everything (just throwing out numbers) but would be 10th overall if you could aggregrate someone and weigh all the variables that make a hockey player good (we can't).

McDavid, Draisatl, Matthews, Bedard, Crosby, MacKinnon, Makar, Kucherov, Panarin, Hughes, Hughes all have elite of the elite skills in certain areas of the game; best in the world shots or skating or puckhandling or vision or passing or playmaking (not the same thing as passing).

The closest player to "perfect" (across the board in all situations and with elite skills in every area) that I've seen play in the past 20 years or so was peak Crosby. Right now I would say that Makar is the closest (his shot being the one area that doesn't compare to other elite shooters, but he is near-elite there too). McDavid is a much better pure skater, puck handler than Crosby was but he is nowhere near the defensive awareness that Crosby had at that point (basically when it gets "in tight" going backwards his skating becomes a skill that doesn't factor in as much; same for MacKinnon).

Peak Crosby could make just about anyone on his line into an all-star.

"Best Player" is such a subjective title but I view it as the one player that you would trust in any situation, either game 7 of a series or carrying a team thru the long regular season grind and playoffs; or in a single game down by a goal or up by a goal or 5, taking the pressure minutes and turning out diamonds.

I don't know that Jack Hughes is in that category for me in the current NHL yet. He certainly has the skills and tools; but it's more than just the individual skills, its the sum of the parts and whether or not it makes the players around them much better. His highlights are great, but I just need to see it mature into an overall elite effective game before I would annoint him into top 5 status.

If you were to reset the NHL and re-draft the entire league without contracts or cap hits and you only get to play for 1 full season and playoffs this way (you lose all your players and we reset the next year).
Assuming everyone is 100% healthy to start the season. You, as the GM, only get paid if you win the cup (first you have to get there); which players would go in the top 5 of the draft?

For me, top 4 is "easy":
Makar
McDavid
MacKinnon
Vasilevskiy

#5 is where it gets so hard (not in ranked order):
Draisatl
Kucherov
Pastrnak
Matthews

These guys are probably just a notch below the group above but so close:
Crosby
Eichel
Barkov
Rantanen
J. Hughes
Panarin
Hedman
McAvoy
Doughty
Sorokin
Shesterkin
Hellebuyck
M. Tkachuk
Landeskog
Stone
Q. Hughes
Fox
Josi


I get what you are saying... And I agree... I was just responding to a fan saying that Hughes wasn't the only one...

as for the closet "perfect player" across all areas... I would say Matthews and Makar are tied for that currently but Crosby was the best I've ever seen... Especially bc now, Matthews is deployable on the PK at a successful rate... Makar's biggest flaw (shot) and Matthews' biggest flaw (skating) are each above average IMO... Which is why I think they are the closest to the "perfect player" module IMO...

My tiers would be (I'll add in goalies but note, tiers 1-2 switch all the time), in no order:
McDavid
Matthews
Mackinnon
Makar
Sorokin

Then:
Draisaitl
Shesterkin
J. Hughes
Vasilevskiy
Kucherov
Q. Hughes
Pastrnak
Barkov
Pettersson
McAvoy
Kaprisov

Then:
Crosby
Marner
Hellebuyck
M. Tkachuk
Panarin
Hedman
Josi
Stone
Rantanen
Robertson
Heiskanen


They are prob others that I'm forgetting but everyone else is in tier 4 and below
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12 déc. 2023 à 12 h 30
#630
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Quoting: Leafsfan98

My tiers would be (I'll add in goalies but note, tiers 1-2 switch all the time), in no order:
McDavid
Matthews
Mackinnon
Makar
Sorokin


I agree that Sorokin is right there in the goalie conversation. I still hold Vasy in that role until he proves otherwise (health factoring in). I do think Sorokin is the closest competitor to him, not Saros or Shesterkin and that Hellebuyck is 3rd.
12 déc. 2023 à 12 h 33
#631
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I think a good thing to consider is that in the past, players likely felt they had to police themselves as the league was not doing it.

Now that the league has established firm foundations for hits to the head, checks from behind, and other plays that result in unnecessary injury, the league is taking the policing from the players.

Now what dp57 did was not okay, but 5-8 years ago? It was okay, and normal, and expected almost,

I think all of this is fine, personally. Players used to have to draw the line, now they don’t as much.
12 déc. 2023 à 12 h 58
#632
Leafs going to Leafs
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Quoting: HockeyScotty
I agree that Sorokin is right there in the goalie conversation. I still hold Vasy in that role until he proves otherwise (health factoring in). I do think Sorokin is the closest competitor to him, not Saros or Shesterkin and that Hellebuyck is 3rd.


I think Sorokin carries the Islanders more than any goalie can TBH
12 déc. 2023 à 13 h 37
#633
CELEBRINI IS A SHARK
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Quoting: ARMCHAIRGMOFTHEYEAR
Gonna be be looking real nice for them once they have the 12th Overall pick, and Granlund + Hoffman both look like trade chips. Granlunds got 18 points in 21 games.

Meanwhile, Karlsson has played well in PIT, better than I expected even, but Pittsburgh has to make the playoffs + Karlsson has to play well for them to be considered as the winners there.

I know it's an unpopular take, but I think Grier has done a fairly good job in San Jose. They were one of the most undesirable jobs with their lack of prospect pool, # of long and lengthy contracts, and their difficult ownership. There is a few times I would've drafted differently but overall I think he's done pretty well. I think San Jose is on the right track.


Granlunds been nothing short of a highlight reel in the last 30-40 days.

Truly I don’t want him or Duclair gone tbh, but Granlund may be playing his way into the Sharks biggest TDL asset.

Duclair makes more sense to keep imo, but Granlunds shocked me with how good he looks.
12 déc. 2023 à 13 h 44
#634
CELEBRINI IS A SHARK
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Modifié 12 déc. 2023 à 14 h 2
Best players in the league, imo, not even a question if we’re talking a 7 game series, winner takes all/ cup.


Top5/6
In no order;
McDavid
Kucherov
Makar
Leon
Barkov / Vasi / Sid

HM: Sorokin / Pasta / JHughes

Call me when anyone of the guys I didn’t mentioned does something in the playoffs. Looking at you Matthews, etc.

Anyone who doesn’t include Kucherov is just a hater tbh.
12 déc. 2023 à 13 h 49
#635
Leafs going to Leafs
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Quoting: yikes
Best players in the league, imo, not even a question if we’re talking a 7 game series, winner takes all/ cup.


Top5/6
In no order;
McDavid
Kucherov
Makar
Leon
Barkov / Vasi

HM: Sorokin / Pasta / JHughes

Call me when anyone of the guys I didn’t mentioned does something in the playoffs. Looking at you Matthews, etc.

Anyone who doesn’t include Kucherov is just a hater tbh.


Wait, what did Leon, Connor, Sorokin, Pasta, JHughes or Barkov done in the playoffs?

And doesn't that mean Crosby, Kessel, Coleman, Kuznetsov replace those guys
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12 déc. 2023 à 14 h 0
#636
CELEBRINI IS A SHARK
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Modifié 12 déc. 2023 à 14 h 10
Quoting: Leafsfan98
Wait, what did Leon, Connor, Sorokin, Pasta, JHughes or Barkov done in the playoffs?

And doesn't that mean Crosby, Kessel, Coleman, Kuznetsov replace those guys


Leon played an entire playoffs on one leg and without even googling - has more points than Matthews’ entire playoff career in that 1 run.

McDavid is McDavid it would be laughable to exclude.

Sidney probably has the right to put me back in my place and take out most of my picks and put in him, I’ll add him (kinda forgot loool):

Sorokin wasn’t the reason his team lost/ doesn’t make playoffs - and when he has I’m pretty sure he has like a .929 sv% (again not googling).

Barkov was excellent in the panthers run and without him the Panthers are probably a bubble/ lottery team.

Pasta had nearly a goal per game in his last series, I’d probably swap him for Sid as you outlined. But I’d take Pasta over Panarin (it’s a coin toss at the end of the day probably between him and Panarin).

I think JHughes has a point per game in his one playoff appearance.

Coleman is great but not over most those guys, Kessel isn’t even playing, Kuzy is being so considered as a cap dump by so many people.

It’s not specifically just playoffs being considered - I’m just relating it to - if you’re in a game 7, or 7 game series for the cup, who am I taking. But playoff performance does matter when making the considerations. For example, I may even take Nylander over Matthews in a BO1 with just how history has unfolded past and present.

Jake Oettinger wouldn’t be far off my list either. Shesterkin has a case to be over Sorokin. Idk I just like Sorokin more, gut feeling. For goalies I’d probably go

Vasi (hard to argue)
Oetter (gut bias)
Sorokin (but he has a worst team of these 4 so that’s why I put him in the list)
Shesty (no factual reason to have him 4)
12 déc. 2023 à 16 h 49
#637
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Friedman saying Vrana did end up on waivers today.

Wonder if that implies he might find a home on a contender:

I think it’s quite obvious there isn’t any return for him as is, but I wonder if he has value with double retention?

Stl waives, clears, stl retains half of what’s left, Detroit already retaining half of the orig.

Vrana for 1.3 mil maybe worth an AHL stud or an older league min contract. Stls ahl had a rocky start, but has done better lately. I do perceive that stl values a winning minor league team, and wouldn’t be shocked to see them move an nhl asset to help the AHL club.
12 déc. 2023 à 17 h 25
#638
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Modifié 12 déc. 2023 à 17 h 33
Man that Ryan Graves contract aged like Milk so far and it hasnt even been a full season

And hes signed to 6 more years beyond this one.....

Clifton's is also up there but at least term isnt as bad
12 déc. 2023 à 19 h 17
#639
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Is this Shesterkin or an imposter
12 déc. 2023 à 19 h 19
#640
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
"Best" is a really poor question here. Best at what?

If I want to start a player in all situations - perhaps up or down a goal at the end of the game - I'm going to look to player C (looks like an all situations type) to be on the ice. If I need to establish offense, I'm looking at player A as the sum of their offensive starts and neutral starts suggests a player that's leaned on to drive possession towards the other net. Player F looks like the ideal candidate to hit the ice following a penalty kill as their high OTF starts and offensive starts show a player that can swing momentum. You can't derive "best" from usage stats.

You're really quick to defend against any Hughes v Draisaitl discourse but I don't think you understood the point of my retort: Hughes is a phenomenal player, but to hold him in high esteem while negging on Draisaitl seems ridiculous as you can almost do a one-to-one comparison of each player's flaws. That's the only point I wanted to make. Draisaitl has, since he broke out, been made out to he nothing more than a powerplay merchant and a product of McDavid: he's a great player in his own right and wholly deserving of a place within the top-10 in the league. Hughes is right in that conversation with him.


Zone starts tells you nothing about a player, especially when ignoring things like how the team plays, what other options are available, how the coach does his job, are they at home or on the road, are they leading/trailing, what style of play they use, etc. Its really a relative figure to weight down CF% stats...(ie 60% CF% with 10% o-zone starts vs 55% CF% with 50% o-zone starts). But in terms of actual significance between the players listed, we are talking about 1-2 puck-drops per game.

Quoting: Leafsfan98
Jack Hughes

-- O-zone: 20.8%
-- Neutral zone: 13.2%
-- D-zone: 3.7%
-- On the fly: 62.3%

https://www.moneypuck.com/stats.htm

That ranks Hughes 729th in D-zone starts...


I wish it were 0%...he can't score from d-zone.

(and see above)
12 déc. 2023 à 19 h 24
#641
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Crosby and Pettersson are the two I think are under-listed in many of these lists. Probably Barkov too. Can make arguments for all of them to be top-5.
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12 déc. 2023 à 19 h 25
#642
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The Capitals are moving to Alexandria, Virginia.
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12 déc. 2023 à 19 h 40
#643
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Quoting: aadoyle
Is this Shesterkin or an imposter


Shesterkin is um broken rn
12 déc. 2023 à 20 h 14
#644
GM CRIME DAWG
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Halloween for the yinzer's in PITT must be extending into December!

There's a sh*t-ton of folks dressed up as empty seats tonight...cheers
12 déc. 2023 à 20 h 17
#645
Craig Laughlin Fan
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
The Capitals are moving to Alexandria, Virginia.


Deal isn't official yet. DC is still in play.
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12 déc. 2023 à 20 h 25
#646
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Quoting: NoVaSpartan
Deal isn't official yet. DC is still in play.


I believe they have scheduled a press conference tomorrow to announce Potomac Yard site…and read that some have already seen the renderings for a mixed-use ‘mini city’ (I think near a Target).

It’s an interesting story to see two jurisdictions fight over a team (that’s not really relocating). Wonder what they next show to drop with be.
12 déc. 2023 à 20 h 40
#647
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The Sens are the biggest frauds in the NHL and it isn’t close - it’s quite sad.
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12 déc. 2023 à 20 h 51
#648
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Quoting: yikes
The Sens are the biggest frauds in the NHL and it isn’t close - it’s quite sad.


Doubt they sell within their division but they got some nice Dman

Chycrun would be welcomed addition here
12 déc. 2023 à 20 h 55
#649
Hakuna Matata
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Rejoint: févr. 2020
Messages: 34,645
Mentions "j'aime": 21,158
Quoting: NHLfan10506
The Capitals are moving to Alexandria, Virginia.


Petition: Goal song change to Take me home, country roads
Saskleaf et zk97 a aimé ceci.
12 déc. 2023 à 20 h 59
#650
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Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 41,418
Mentions "j'aime": 18,816
Quoting: aadoyle
Petition: Goal song change to Take me home, country roads


It’s Alexandria, Virginia…so its a fairly urban setting. Got to go another hour or two before you cue John Denver
NoVaSpartan a aimé ceci.
 
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