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CantStopWontStop

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Forum: NHLHier à 14 h 50
Sujet: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
I’m kinda a weirdo:

I’m preferring Utah HC as the final name.

Maybe I’ve thought about so many names they all just kinda seem generic and lazy. Like what low grade theme park would name its newest ride. So why not be generic and lazy to the extreme, own it and do it well, go big or go home. Could refer to them as whatever people from Utah call themselves, or just Utah. (A Ute?, the Utes?) (I’ve recently lived thru the St. Louis MLS expansion and really like our branding there, local ownership enhances marketing opportunity and impact, impresses upon fans that advertising partners are “us”).

It would be fun if their mascot was a snake and it was a dude in a modified green inflatable flailing arms man costume, so for that I’m rooting for venom or poison or whatever. They could have a power play dance for the fans that looks absolutely stupid and ridiculous, making it amazing, where they all wiggle around like snakes.
Forum: NHLmer. à 18 h 43
Sujet: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sensonfire</b></div><div>Obviously, I'm biased about Chychrun's trade value, but I acknowledge that there's a distinct possibility we might get less than what we paid for him.



With that said, any trade for Chychrun should be about saving face.

I think an acceptable return on Chychrun would be a 1st + two 2nds, regardless of how high the 1st is.

It doesn't have to be #12 overall and it can even be #32 overall.



I also think that something like what Calgary got for Noah Hanifin as a pending UFA at the trade deadline would be acceptable.

A 1st + a conditional 2nd + a big right shot depth defenceman with a low cap hit.



As for what Chychrun might sign for, anywhere between 6.5 million and 8 million on an 8 year deal is well within his reach.</div></div>

I think you might be in for a positive surprise. I’m pretty sure a big knock to Chychrun’s value was his historic injuries and time missed. At the time yall got him, it was a very safe bet to assume he’d miss 25%++ of the season cause that’s kinda how it had been, give or take. That had to scare away buyers. Playing a full 82 and playing pretty okay shows not only that he has the fitness/awareness to do it, but all the previous stuff is in the past also. I don’t think you can accidentally play 82, esp as a d.
Forum: NHL19 avr. à 12 h 55
Sujet: CantStop prediction post with 1 opinion per series
If ur bored here’s some fanfic from random St. Louis fan and my bracket submission this season.

<strong>Round 1</strong>

West:

Dallas Vs Vegas: Stars in 5.
I feel like the longer the series goes, the more it tilts to Vegas, but the Stars are so stable and diverse. I don’t think Vegas has what it takes to get going or that the Stars will shut it down quick if they do. It’s not that the stars are so wildly better that they’ll win in 5, they’re just so persistent and heavy that once the boulder is rolling down hill it won’t be possible to stop it.

Colorado Vs Winnipeg: Jets in 6.
The Jets are on fire. They haven’t lost in April and also have had an insanely stacked schedule. They have the best goalie, best gm, diverse squad, big defense, health, depth. Everybody else is in serious trouble against them. There is no shortcut. Meanwhile in the last stretch of the season the Avs allowed 7 jets goals, 7 stars goals, 6 oiler goals. That’s way too pourous. Still, the avs are really solid, it won’t be a clean cut.

Vancouver Vs Nashville: Predators in 6.
Vancouver will not be pleased with their draw, is like a cactus from secret Santa. I’d suggest of all teams, Nashville is probably among the best in 1-goal scenarios - either holding or trailing - they will frustrate Vancouver and eke out Ws, having just enough to steal games they have no business taking. Don’t burn down ur city, it’s just a game.

Edmonton VS LA: Oilers in 6.
I think the kings are scarier than they seem. PLD is kinda the guy you complain about in December but rave about in April, but it’s not just him - tons of standouts down the stretch. I’m not sure I’d pick the kings to lose in the first round if they had a different opponent, but the Oilers have been built too well, and there has to be some positive factor for having guys like Corey Perry in a long series against a repeat opponent. I really do want to pick the kings, but McDavid…

East:
Panthers Vs Lightning: Lightning in 6
I’m choosing Vasilevski. If the panthers do take care of business here everybody else is in trouble, as is my bracket. The lightning give them a responsibility challenge, and I like the lightnings ability to stuff Florida’s offense somewhat. Goalie probably has to win this series so I’m picking a goalie who’s won a whole bunch of series just like this. The panthers have everything going for them, but there’s a bit of kryptonite in the draw.

Boston Vs Toronto: Toronto in 6.
I feel like Toronto can approach this playoffs with tons of weight off their shoulders: they aren’t all in, guys resigned to play together for a long time. If they just go to work they’re going on a run. I really think we will see them flourish because their skill is off the charts - when games come down to the leafs best 5 skaters vs the bruins best 5, the leafs tilt the ice hard. There has been a lot of maturity and improvement from various leafs in key roles since the last time these two teams battled.

Rangers VS Capitals: Rangers in 4
I like wrong sided Charlie Lindgren and I like the Capitals, but the rangers are stacked and the capitals goal differential is just so bad. I know it doesn’t count, and some players were injured or traded before, it’s just such a blemish, makes things seem very fragile, and the rangers are elite and lethal. I think the capitals could have done some more damage in the playoffs if they had a different draw.

Hurricanes VS Islanders: Hurricanes in 7
Hurricanes will win the most lopsided 7 game series ever. I think NYI will drag it out excessively, but the hurricanes soundly win, it just takes a bit. Guarantee you’ll overhear “oh I thought the hurricanes ended that series already” at the pub in 10 days. Then game 7 will occur and the hurricanes will win 9-2, leading by 5 at the first intermission.

<strong>Round 2</strong>

West:
Dallas VS Winnipeg: Jets in 7
Hardest matchup for the jets in the conference. We get to watch two honest mature deep teams go to war. I think the Jets are more focused, sharpened roster with isolated roles, where Dallas is much more intermixing youth and old age while being very dense and sharing responsibility. Both are excellent approaches, but I like the Jets when head to head this moment in time because of the moment in time. Some of the stars young guys are real young, and old guys real old. It’s not that’s automatically a bad thing, but when matched against a much narrower team, the body will do what it does. The jets oldest skater is 33, the stars have 6 guys above that.

Predators Vs Oilers: Oilers in 5
The predators won’t have enough answers for the oilers offense, middle of the lineup, and special teams - the oilers can spread McDavid and draisaitl apart, flatten ice time, and win through attrition and power plays. A flattened oilers group is way scarier than a flattened Vancouver group, and there will be little concern over 1 goal games because the oilers will score a ton of them. Giving Nashville one win in the series is generous, but the oilers seem to just randomly get caved in. Has been like that 2 seasons now. I dunno why.

East:
Leafs Vs Lightning: Leafs in 6
It was fun last year let’s do it again.

Rangers Vs Carolina: ?
Impossible to predict but Rangers in 7. Two well matched and well built teams. I really think this would be must see hockey.

<strong>Conference Finals</strong>

West:
Winnipeg Vs Oilers: Jets in 7
The calmer of the two conference finals - I like the jets structure and depth after both teams have been through two series. They’re just going to go to work, meanwhile McJesus, ekholm, Bouchard will have played 25-30 min a night every other night for 2 weeks. I think the Jets are really difficult to play against when they load up on 200ft guys in response to high skill. Guys like Adam Lowry are forever underrated. Edmonton is like a long distance runner who gets a huge lead by sprinting at first, need to throttle back on the extreme usage in early rounds or this will persist as a problem when facing deep teams in the later rounds.

East:
Leafs Vs Rangers: Leafs in 5
Kinda seems like there will be big swings - if either team is in control long enough they’re winning bigly, but the other taking control swings that pendulum so much you’d think it’s 2 different teams. I think that environment favors the Leafs, built in drama, thrive on drama, bleed drama, dream drama, become drama. I’m being srs, we’ve watched these elite athletes get put through the pressure wringer every year of their careers - that’s worth something. Otherwise I’d pick NYR. I don’t think the leafs are so much better than the rangers, I just think we’re going to witness what happens when a generational talent flexes, and if nyr lets this series open up in response to the spotlight, it’ll be over fast, you’re giving the leafs exactly what they want.

<strong>Finals</strong>
Jets vs Leafs: Jets win in 6 games
Cheveldayoff Conn Smythe. Or hellebyuck.
The Jets, in cold ass boring taxed to death Winnipeg will overcome extreme adversity with a cup win highlighted by world class team composition. The Leafs have a great run, but they won’t have enough answers for the defense and goaltending on the other side. I’m not even tryin to put the leafs down but it won’t be close - is a case where the matchup happens to favor the jets composition as is, nevermind them being so thoroughly good, and at this point, the top performers on the leafs will have expended so much.
Forum: NHL18 avr. à 7 h 59
Sujet: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
Imma bring this up at the all star break next season, never again until. I promise.

I use 5v5 rate metrics to compare players. It eliminates special teams usage, ice-time usage differences, empty net goals and 3v3 overtime. It doesn’t matter if one player has more games played or missed time for injury. You can see career trends in rate metrics you cannot see in accumulating stats, and I think 5v5 is as clean as it could get, representing the portion of hockey that often decides who wins and loses, the fairest thing we have to compare two players in different environments.

Since the trade, Michael bunting has higher 5v5 rates than Jake Guentzel in the following categories:

5v5 goals, primary assists, secondary assists, points, hits, takeaways. He’s also sat in the penalty box less and scored more game winning goals.

He is close to but behind Guentzel in shot generation, which makes sense since he goes to the net, but doesn’t discount that Guentzel is clearly better. Guentzel is clearly the better perimeter forward, has much more skill and body, and has a stronger 2-way game, but Bunting is able, and will continue to be able to contribute more to winning hockey by going to the net. The recipe is simple and you don’t have to believe a random internet stranger: literally every coach ever, all age levels, has a speech ready about working hard and going to the dirty areas, and they’re usually giving that speech to guys like Guentzel.

This trade was robbery, absolute robbery. The hurricanes upgraded the penguins, reduced their average age, saved them future money, gave them assurity for the next 2 seasons, and gave them a bag full of futures while freeing themselves of a trap of their own creation - giving Guentzel 21/22 minutes a night. Yet the consensus since day one has been the other way around. Baffling. Bunting isn’t even taking Crosby’s wing! He was with malkin mostly. Rust took Crosby’s wing, was just above point per game from trade deadline on, just like Guentzel (mid) was previously. God help this comparison if bunting got to be Crosby’s tap in merchant for a month.
Forum: NHL17 avr. à 7 h 20
Sujet: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
(Behind the scenes on how the perfect bracket was submitted?)

Imma be edgy and take Toronto over NYR out of the East, with the Lightning winning the battle of Florida.

Its borderline clinical to suggest the Bruins will lose in the first round again, but here I am. It’s hard to pick against the hurricanes - they’re near perfect, but I think in 7 games against the rangers I see the rangers prevail. I really like how the lightning matchup against the panthers, and think they’re maybe the best team to take them out. I think everybody else is kinda in trouble if the panthers get past the lightning. A lot of this is Vasilevskiy - he presents problems for the way the panthers score goals. He uses his size so well, his presence in close in action is notably better than his peers.

I think that Toronto’s skill will run wild and that they have enough on the team for the nights they’re muted. —unless Charlie Coyle has a Selke like series, they should manhandle the bruins (if Coyle plays 21 min a game+ and holds down torontos top end scoring while contributing offensively good luck cause bostons middle is gonna grind ya to dust). I wanna pound the table that coyle is under recognized, here’s a chance to make me look stupid - entirely possible he’s caved in, Toronto is so good. Be fun to watch this on display. I think Coyle can do a lot of good work but Toronto prevail, but if I am right and he’s very underrated, then my bracket will be blown up and I won’t care anymore.

I also think Toronto needs the reduction in spot light. They aren’t all in. I think you’ll see Toronto play more true to itself. It’s still extreme distraction, pressure, focus, but it’ll be like taking batting practice with the extra weight on the bat then taking it off to go hit. They don’t ultimately get the cup, Cheveldayoff does, but runner up is way better than first round loss.

Jets Leafs Final. Jets cup.

The jets haven’t lost this month, shutout their divisional peers multiple times. Haven’t had a muffin game - all contenders down the stretch (the wild once, kinda bubble contender), hot at the right time if you recall my prediction specifically that this would occur, best goaltender, deep diverse offense and defense, can win at any pace, have faced adversity, large amount of battle tested impactful guys in all positions, only the kings/predators matchup well against them but the jets are deeper and more polished. Meanwhile the jets have shown the ability to slow down top heavy teams, and will handle the Mackinnons and Mcdavids of the conference. The stars present the biggest challenge, but late rounds and old teams will do what it does.

Cheveldayoff conn smythe: the Dubois deal, Monahan deal, Tiffoli deal, resigning the best goalie in hockey all top gm marks and created a monster of a team while also having one of the least desirable markets with unfavorable tax status. He’s the mvp, and the cup will enshrine him as a goat gm.
Forum: NHL16 avr. à 9 h 35
Sujet: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
I don’t think any of this takes away from achievement: each moment is the collective group competing against each other and is what it is:

But I predict we will get more big numbers from standout performers - for quite a while. Like record breaking stats. This is good! The alternative is hooking and holding. Nobody liked that path. It was awful. It took years of obstruction calls to break out of.

Expansionary time, while only at 46 new jobs, has an effect.

And the pandemic shutdown year has had an effect - players in early development missed a year, everything got nudged right a little bit, and everything took a haircut.

What we’re seeing is the cream rising to the top, while the main contents are being diluted. The cream is still the cream, undiluted. It rises higher and higher.

If the league adds another 46 new jobs over 5 years, this will accelerate. If you remember or can go see how bad hooking and holding were during the last expansionary period, you’ll maybe guess that there is quite a bit of runway for the top performers to do even more.

As a side bonus, to combat this, the league is placing a greater emphasis on safety: each acl surgery or serious concussion is further dilution, and the leagues efforts here benefit all.

It’s a good time to be a team with an elite performer and it’s a good time to be an elite performer.
Forum: St. Louis Blues13 avr. à 9 h 36
Sujet: 2023/24 post mortem, offseason predictions
Offseason Predictions:

Welcome your new coach, Joel Quenneville. I’ve been around too long, the little PR process in place right now seems obvious to me. Guy who has no job gets in local podcast to talk about wanting a job. They’re seeing how you all feel about it. I personally do not believe the average hockey fans cares about the past, oblivious to them, none of the details matter at all they do not care or know or care to know. Heck, I bet if you ask most casual blues fans, they’d be all for a guy who let some Blackhawk get diddled. Blues internet people have an oft repeated phrase for about 15 years running: F the hawks. Well - Q was all for that. My opinion is he has been sentenced for a crime, if that sentence ends it ends. I’m not going to waste my time stressing over it and I’m not going to stop liking my team. There’s far worse injustice in the world on a daily basis than if the league decides a 3-year ban was appropriate. Stl has previously hired individuals needing a 2nd chance. I hope Bannister stays, either at the nhl level on Qs team or AHL as HC with more power. He’s somebody I want on my team. But will see: I bet if you gave me a taste of the NHL while I was in the AHL I’d have a hard time heading back.

One or more of Binnington, Krug, or Parayko will be traded for various reasons. Binnington: cause his window is closing and he wants to win. Krug buyout possibly. Parayko because he’s the only one with value that you can move without jacking up your future because you get something good in return.

Parayko could be a great asset for Utah. Utah has so many futures. I think stl and Utah make excellent trade partners. I hope Doug Armstrong hits that jackpot, cause that franchise has an absolute massive amount of assets to trade, and apart from a few guys, stl has quality guys to offer in exchange. I think there’s some real win win trades.

Binner has trade value, could be a great target for Jersey, has a similar attitude as Jack, has a similar playstyle to Jake Allen who is having some success there, but unfortunately is old. Jersey would likely send a goaltender back among other things, and our depth chart would be young, but up to 3 deep with Zherenko. It would also be fun if he were a Flyer considering their Hextall days, but they just got that absolute unit of a goalie from Russia.

I feel bad for Krug, but this is the most competitive league in the world and it says sorry not sorry. If you want a spot you have to do better even when the situation is less than ideal. It sucks. The system does not have mercy. If you’re going to be capsized defensively that can be fine, but you gotta create offense, and that didn’t happen this year. Perhaps some other defensive change happens that allows stl to avoid buyout. Krug is not “the problem”, the mix, depth chart, and the series of injuries are. Something has to give.

I don’t think Kapanen returns. I think the DUI a week before a “prove it” season did it for me, not specifically because of the dui, but because he was busy filling his body with alcohol instead of post workout. At a certain level of fitness, drinking becomes repulsive. Your body is a temple and when you take care of it to the extreme, harming it is sacrilege. I’m not paying a person 3 mil a year to figure it out if he isn’t at that level. I don’t think athletes must abstain, but the week before the season you’re proving it is the time to be at your peak. I would have tried to release him then. I absolutely would not offer him a contract this summer. Not even for league minimum. It’s not personal, I simply value icetime - and I can find somebody to fill his minutes who is taking this as serious as they need to be, probably for a lot less money.

Otherwise, barring wild mega trade, I think the forwards look about the same. There should be one addition (two depending on sundqvist recovery timeframe), but it wouldn’t have to be a premium player. It’s hard to predict some acquisition as it really depends on the observations of all these young guys in the line up. Perhaps there’s an obvious hole to them that will be filled.

Post Mortem:

My expectations were that the blues were a bubble team and I got exactly what I expected.

I think Schenn got thrown under the bus a bit and whether that belief is correct or not, I like how his season went, how the team played all things considered. Buchnevich really played hard for the team as well, got rewarded with way too much icetime, but that’s an indicator of a depth problem. I would resign Buchnevich, he’s shown a level of compete, intelligence, and versatility that is hard to find. The contract might get iffy at the end but that’s okay.

Robert Thomas is elite. Imma start banging the selke drum next season. I think that award has his name on it within 5 years.

It will be beneficial to have given Dean, Alexandrov, Bolduc, Toropchenko, and Perunovich real ice time the past bit. No clue where they all end up, but I like that Krug was scratched (until Faulk injured), Hayes scratched so this icetime could be given. Now all those guys have concrete examples of things they need to work on as they develop.

I dislike the blues 5v5 scoring, is absolute dumpster, worse than Chicago. This is the gms failure, not the coach or the players - a depth team cannot compete without depth, and (among other things) a replacement for vrana should have been acquired the second month of the season.

Buchnevich would have way more energy per shift if he were skating 16-18 min versus 21-24 min a game. He should be skating 16-18. Dominant teams without unique players (mcDavidless stars, bruins) keep their minutes flat so every time a skater hits the ice they’re pulling from a larger energy pool. The only guys on those teams who go above 18 are guys who do both pp and pk, and thru the season they mix that up so the end result is quite dispersed. Go check out their teams icetime distribution compared to ours. I made trade proposals here for Josh Anderson, Tarasenko, Patrick laine (not knowing), and a few others at that time - if it’s obvious to me as an outsider…and you can’t convince me there wasn’t a reasonable deal to be found - you didn’t need to target a top liner or otherwise premium asset, didn’t have to be young, didn’t have to have term. But whatever.

The team had an outstanding record against good teams - just too many depth chart holes to do that reliably.

I think my standout moment was Kyrou getting booed after chiefs termination, which is a good indicator the season wasn’t spectacular. I have -NEVER- seen that reaction in stl. I think his future here is fine, and that the lowpoint is in the rearview, but if he were traded I wouldn’t be surprised. Another option for Utah. I like him, I think he’s a very cool unique element. I think the team is very dangerous if he’s on it and the rest of the forwards are properly placed on the depth chart, and he's used as a unique weapon, not in all conditions. If he’s taking a share of premium opportunities, but a peer with a different skill set is taking some too, both will be more effective. Kyrou is closer to Mitch marner than he is far, and moving on from him is silly. But if he goes I think that’s fine too. Whatever. I wish the local reporter who always has an opinion on Kyrou would stop being so …

I don’t understand how that guy gets money for doing what he does. It’s very immature for somebody who is so experienced … I could accidentally do a better job with no experience.

Lastly, I like Snuggerud staying in the NCAA. We have enough to develop. Stl will be in a better position to help him succeed a year from now. Historically, stl has given into every demand for collegiate prospects. Stl will again pay the fair price to get him when the time comes, and our lack of enough scoring depth gives him a future that could project high up on our depth chart. What more could he get elsewhere. Same with Perunovich - his future is in question - who else is going to bend their defense around him like stl has. Stl has the benefit of being able to offer opportunity,

It’ll be better sooner than later and interesting in between. This offseason has the chance to be one of the more dynamic of the teams history.
Forum: NHL13 avr. à 8 h 50
Sujet: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
It’ll be interesting the coming years as to where bad contracts go.

So many teams have benefited from the coyotes historic strategies with cap dumps, injured players. Now, that pressure relief is gone.

It’ll also be so wildly unique for the trade scenarios. The franchise has an absurd amount of futures and cap space.

This new team, with all its futures, has the chance to be a true contender its first year and for the medium and long term.

Some things that could be cool:

What happens if somebody like draisaitl or marner is traded to the new Utah team. (I think both resign where they are) They’d have so many assets to send back along with quality nhlers. The trade possibilities are wild. They can afford anything they want, can make offers that can’t be refused.

Some gm is going to hit the jackpot.

I put it over in its place cause it’s long and most people don’t prefer that - but if somebody does like them, here’s a Blues post mortem and prediction thread:

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/823174
Forum: NHL12 avr. à 16 h 20
Sujet: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
Let’s just say: it’s fantasy land and in this place Mark Stone is cleared to play in the nhl prior to the final day of the season, and that he has to be activated off ltir because he is no longer injured. In this fantasy, the NHL office 100% believes that a ploy is in place so that Vegas can avoid cap compliance through manipulation of recovery times. (I acknowledge this is most likely not the case today).

Any guesses at:

What actual remedy would Vegas have to become cap compliant: Would they be forced to trade a player? Or is there something they could do roster wise to make this work?

What possible ways could the league render punishment? Just ding them a draft pick and move on? Let them play out the playoffs in the fantasy environment where they’ve failed to be cap complaint by like 8 milly?

We’ve seen punishments for negotiating with other teams players, and we’ve seen punishments for writing contracts that are cap circumvention, but I don’t think we’ve seen “team making player be LTIR when they are not” punishment. And it isn’t like there is a whole off season to consider these things: If this fantasy scenario occured, there’s like a week to make a decision.

I can think of a dozen times a player returned to play prior to estimated recovery times. I’d almost suggest that a player who has gone through numerous long recovery periods has become experienced at it, should be better than average.

Google says this, I haven’t read the source:

“NHL teams that violate the salary cap can face fines of up to $5 million, contract cancellations, loss of draft picks, loss of points, and/or forfeiture of games.“
Forum: NHL12 avr. à 9 h 35
Sujet: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Nonsense.

SLC is about one-third LDS. The state is about 60% LDS.

The vibe in SLC is not same as say, Provo, where BYU is located, which is more heavily Mormon. SLC has a more diverse group of people and probably also includes a higher percentage of “Jack Mormons” (non-practicing Mormons).

Regardless, Bigamy/Polygamy is illegal in Utah for a century and a half. It is seen has a crime in Utah, just like any other state. It’s not something one ever sees or hears about in the state unless you cross paths with one of a few, small fundamentalists groups that are in rural areas (and make up about 0.1% of overall LDS population).

But based on where our culture and society are, for some reason, many feel like anti-Mormon hate is acceptable (while antisemitism, Islamophobia are not). None of it is okay.

Now <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2023/03/15/americans-feel-more-positive-than-negative-about-jews-mainline-protestants-catholics/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">LDS is least liked religious group in US</a> per recent Pew study.

Be better, people.</div></div>

I think a lot of angst about certain large groups is simply because they’re just hedge funds exploiting tax code and the population to further selfish interests. The day the Mormon church dissolves Ensign Peak Advisors is the day I respect them. Until then, a spade is a spade. As it turns out in this case, the spade is one of the top 5 largest private investment firms globally.

Funny how hard it is to separate money and religion. Almost like one is a tool to get the other. I wonder how much the portfolio holdings influence religious teaching. (Spoiler: 100%)