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BeterChiarelli

Hey Beter
Membre depuis
29 oct 2017
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Oilers d'Edmonton
Anniversaire
9 oct 1995
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Forum: NHLTue at 1:36 pm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>It's 2 years of Toews</div></div>

Incorrect, the AGM was for 2022-23. It was a one-year rental of Toews.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>a near point per game (60 pts in 70 gp in 19-20, <strong>didn't play last year</strong>), Selke calibre 1st line centre, at only 5.5mil, and you make (most) of the cap room by also giving up Kassian in that deal.</div></div>

I bolded the part that concerns me the most. Toews was showing signs of a drop-off before going down for so long. I think a third line role, especially on like a shutdown line, would be the ideal role for someone of his skill and point in his career, but those kinds of pieces don't get the A-prospects in return. Perhaps a first and a third as we saw in the Foligno deal, but with how much of a cap hit Toews actually brings with him and that it's blatantly clear he'd only be the third-best pivot in Edmonton, why should he cost more than the aforementioned Kassian and a 2nd? Why must the Oilers keep doing the Blackhawks favours?

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>Kassian would cost more than a 2nd to dump imo.</div></div>

I think this might be false during next summer. I think any team looking to keep itself close to the cap floor would take his remaining $5.8M across two years. Edmonton could even retain upwards of a million per season. I think the Coyotes solve this problem quite handily to be honest.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>So you're giving up less than Holloway's value for 2 years of Toews 5.5. It's an absolute steal of a trade and to suggest otherwise is foolish. I like Holloway, but bringing in a capable 2-way leader like that with championship pedigree (who unlike Keith is actually still good) is worth far more than part of Holloway's value.</div></div>

What kind of galaxy brain math is this? The Oilers are giving up - by definition - more than Holloway's value. Kassian and the 2nd are still assets with varying degrees of value and you're forgetting the part where Edmonton TRADES AWAY Holloway.

And how much of a leader can Toews (or Keith) be for that matter if both players were playing such roles in an environment that permitted the sexual assault of another player?

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>He immediately would give Edmonton the best top 9 in the league, allowing Drai+McD to play on the same line all the time while still icing a good 2nd line (Hyman-Toews-Yamamoto?) and then a good 3rd line (Foegele-Nuge-literally doesn't matter these 8 are already the best top 9).</div></div>

Edmonton already has one of the best top-9 units in the league, adding Toews isn't going to do anything but enable Tippett to park his head further up his own ass by continuing to run Draisaitl with McDavid. Earlier you agree that he'd be a third-line shutdown center and now you're doubling back on that to finagle in some greater value than what the man can actually provide? Pick a lane and stick with it please.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>Edmonton's problem of course remains terrible defense and streaky at best goaltending, but Toews would definitely improve their team defense.</div></div>

He's a forward, and an old one at that. Toews will only do so much. If he's in a third line role at 5v5, then he's probably seeing no more than 12 minutes at even strength and maybe he gets the PK workload. Less than a third of the game. That's not going to be a substantial impact, especially for the cost paid to acquire him.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>In the end it's a moot point because it's a horribly lopsided trade without the cap dump (Kassian) and the retention, and Chicago wouldn't entertain trading him anyway, but it instantly and significantly improves Edmonton's chances of winning the cup in the next 2 years while McDavid is at his most dominant with next to no downside. Plus you still have your 1sts, Bourgault, Lavoie, Broberg, etc. to go after immediate improvements on defense. Not that I think Edmonton is gonna do anything, because they've committed to their mediocre top 4 and are capped out but hey, dreaming is nice I suppose.</div></div>

I think you touch on two key points here which ultimately defeat the idea of this trade:

1. The Blackhawks maintain a degree of sentiment to Toews and will enable him to retire as a Blackhawk.
2. The Oilers front office is life-threateningly allergic to math and other forms of sound, logical decision making and would never get out of their own ways to improve the team.

I really appreciate the gusto in which you approach the idea in general, but there needs to be some time to pause and consider the other side of the equation: Edmonton is in a disastrous cap situation next season and Holloway is going to provide supreme value in terms of his skill and his ELC. A nearly $6M third line center cannot be an option for the Oilers next season unless Keith retires, and in any case that money should be thrown at upgrading the blueline as much as possible: Smith's term and the organization's increasingly obvious projection of Skinner as next year's backup is going to leave even more question marks in net.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 9:15 pm
Forum: NHLSat at 7:24 pm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>yikes</b></div><div>As Beter said getting D is the most important imo. I think their depth is fine on F but they should move Kassian and bring in two depth pieces that would provide better use of the cap space Kassian takes up.

I say Gibson solely because;

If I’m John Gibson, a former top 3 goalie, who’s not old; and I get told I’m going from the Dumpster Dwelling Ducks to McDavids team im pretty ****ing pumped. Guy - he just needs a smaller workload (which Smith provides) and then to get to the playoffs. Where he can get a chance to prove himself. And I think the chance at a cup by playing with McDavid, Leon, Nurse, RNH, Hyman is too good to pass up. A improved D, maybe move Kassian, and Gibson would make me bet on EDM this year.

No team is a lock for the cup imo. Tampa needs a new third line or they’re not 3-peating (they could by trade or internally but we need to see it). Colorado is strong but they didn’t really address what lost them their last series; they’re the favourite tho imo. And the east is so deep. Vegas is crippled without Patches and Stone - they could free fall tbh. The isles may be my second favourites but again, the East is deep.

The <strong>Rangers</strong> are super tempting to make some headaches in the Metro and the <strong>Sens</strong> in the Atlantic. For example; those two teams WILL NOT make the playoffs (but never say never IG lol) - but Ottawa and the Rags are gonna be causing problems I think.</div></div>

I'm not as anti-Gibson as a few Oiler fans are and I've learned to read between the statlines a touch. I think he's still very much a quality netminder and would be in the upper echelon of goaltenders if the Ducks ever had the virtue to find him a new home. Part of the problem is I'm also not near as anti-Koskinen as most every other hockey fan either for the inverse of why I'm not anti-Gibson. The math shows that Mikko can be <em>phenomenal</em> for stretches, and like you point out with Gibson just required better tandem management and a competent blueline in front of him.

I understand that the Oilers are going to need to send assets out in order to improve *something* on their roster. Given the current cap setup and especially with the next two years of financial juggling the Oilers will have to undertake, I'm staunchly against $9M spent on two goaltenders. The Oilers are already going to be spending over 50% of their cap on their forwards, possibly upwards of 67%. There is a far greater need to upgrading the blueline - especially in consideration to next season - than there would be to acquire a really, really good goaltender. A consistently average goaltender can take a team to the cup finals if the team in front of him gives two damns hand over fist in their quest for glory. Khudobin did it in very recent memory. Every bit of math and in-depth analysis shows the overarching difference between a .917sv% and a .927sv% netminder is borderline negligible over the course of a season. Math and analysis go out the window once the postseason arrives. If Vasilevskiy was such a game-changer for the Lightning, we'd never seen them busted apart by the Blue Jackets; the Vezina trophy would always coincide with the cup-winning netminder.

If Holland hadn't wildly pissed away his cap space this summer on the corpses of Ceci and Keith, I'd be far more into acquiring Gibson. The money just isn't there for it to mean sustainable success for Edmonton.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 6:20 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 6:13 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 5:53 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 5:40 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 5:32 pm
Forum: NHLSat at 5:27 pm
Forum: NHLSat at 5:07 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 5:02 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 4:35 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 4:32 pm