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BeterChiarelli

Hey Beter
Membre depuis
29 oct 2017
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Oilers d'Edmonton
Anniversaire
9 oct 1995
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Forum: NHLTue at 1:36 pm
Sujet: 2021/22 NHL Season Discussion thread
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>It's 2 years of Toews</div></div>

Incorrect, the AGM was for 2022-23. It was a one-year rental of Toews.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>a near point per game (60 pts in 70 gp in 19-20, <strong>didn't play last year</strong>), Selke calibre 1st line centre, at only 5.5mil, and you make (most) of the cap room by also giving up Kassian in that deal.</div></div>

I bolded the part that concerns me the most. Toews was showing signs of a drop-off before going down for so long. I think a third line role, especially on like a shutdown line, would be the ideal role for someone of his skill and point in his career, but those kinds of pieces don't get the A-prospects in return. Perhaps a first and a third as we saw in the Foligno deal, but with how much of a cap hit Toews actually brings with him and that it's blatantly clear he'd only be the third-best pivot in Edmonton, why should he cost more than the aforementioned Kassian and a 2nd? Why must the Oilers keep doing the Blackhawks favours?

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>Kassian would cost more than a 2nd to dump imo.</div></div>

I think this might be false during next summer. I think any team looking to keep itself close to the cap floor would take his remaining $5.8M across two years. Edmonton could even retain upwards of a million per season. I think the Coyotes solve this problem quite handily to be honest.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>So you're giving up less than Holloway's value for 2 years of Toews 5.5. It's an absolute steal of a trade and to suggest otherwise is foolish. I like Holloway, but bringing in a capable 2-way leader like that with championship pedigree (who unlike Keith is actually still good) is worth far more than part of Holloway's value.</div></div>

What kind of galaxy brain math is this? The Oilers are giving up - by definition - more than Holloway's value. Kassian and the 2nd are still assets with varying degrees of value and you're forgetting the part where Edmonton TRADES AWAY Holloway.

And how much of a leader can Toews (or Keith) be for that matter if both players were playing such roles in an environment that permitted the sexual assault of another player?

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>He immediately would give Edmonton the best top 9 in the league, allowing Drai+McD to play on the same line all the time while still icing a good 2nd line (Hyman-Toews-Yamamoto?) and then a good 3rd line (Foegele-Nuge-literally doesn't matter these 8 are already the best top 9).</div></div>

Edmonton already has one of the best top-9 units in the league, adding Toews isn't going to do anything but enable Tippett to park his head further up his own ass by continuing to run Draisaitl with McDavid. Earlier you agree that he'd be a third-line shutdown center and now you're doubling back on that to finagle in some greater value than what the man can actually provide? Pick a lane and stick with it please.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>Edmonton's problem of course remains terrible defense and streaky at best goaltending, but Toews would definitely improve their team defense.</div></div>

He's a forward, and an old one at that. Toews will only do so much. If he's in a third line role at 5v5, then he's probably seeing no more than 12 minutes at even strength and maybe he gets the PK workload. Less than a third of the game. That's not going to be a substantial impact, especially for the cost paid to acquire him.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>In the end it's a moot point because it's a horribly lopsided trade without the cap dump (Kassian) and the retention, and Chicago wouldn't entertain trading him anyway, but it instantly and significantly improves Edmonton's chances of winning the cup in the next 2 years while McDavid is at his most dominant with next to no downside. Plus you still have your 1sts, Bourgault, Lavoie, Broberg, etc. to go after immediate improvements on defense. Not that I think Edmonton is gonna do anything, because they've committed to their mediocre top 4 and are capped out but hey, dreaming is nice I suppose.</div></div>

I think you touch on two key points here which ultimately defeat the idea of this trade:

1. The Blackhawks maintain a degree of sentiment to Toews and will enable him to retire as a Blackhawk.
2. The Oilers front office is life-threateningly allergic to math and other forms of sound, logical decision making and would never get out of their own ways to improve the team.

I really appreciate the gusto in which you approach the idea in general, but there needs to be some time to pause and consider the other side of the equation: Edmonton is in a disastrous cap situation next season and Holloway is going to provide supreme value in terms of his skill and his ELC. A nearly $6M third line center cannot be an option for the Oilers next season unless Keith retires, and in any case that money should be thrown at upgrading the blueline as much as possible: Smith's term and the organization's increasingly obvious projection of Skinner as next year's backup is going to leave even more question marks in net.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 9:15 pm
Sujet: Oilers Prospect Team
I'd personally take Safin off this list: I don't think he'll be with the organization much longer. I wouldn't consider Soderlund a prospect either. Filip Engaras could be on this list, he's having a half-decent season in the NCAA thus far. Maxim Denezhkin should be here too. Siikanen probably warrants a position on this list over Lindewall.

If we were to organize this roster by floor/how far along each prospect is, I think it would probably look a lot more like:

Savoie - Holloway - Bourgault
Lavoie - Denezhkin - Tullio
Petrov - Brind'Amour - Berezkin
Siikanen - Chiasson - Engaras
Lindewall

Samorukov - Berglund
Niemelainen - Kemp
Broberg - Kesselring
Munzenberger

Skinner
Konovalov
Rodrigue

I know the organization is trying their damnedest to develop Holloway as a center and Lavoie as an off-handed forward. I think Bourgault is playing as a RW in the QMJHL right now too. The Oilers' brass is super high on Skinner right now to the point where I wouldn't be surprised if they run Smith-Skinner as next year's tandem. Broberg isn't a failed prospect but is going to arrive far later than the rest of his draft class: Samorukov should be a lock for the NHL next season but Nemo has been surprising over the past season and a bit.

The five Russian prospects the Oilers are currently employing under this setup are very much worth keeping an eye on. I think all of them could be in the NHL one day.
Forum: NHLSat at 7:24 pm
Sujet: 2021/22 NHL Season Discussion thread
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>yikes</b></div><div>As Beter said getting D is the most important imo. I think their depth is fine on F but they should move Kassian and bring in two depth pieces that would provide better use of the cap space Kassian takes up.

I say Gibson solely because;

If I’m John Gibson, a former top 3 goalie, who’s not old; and I get told I’m going from the Dumpster Dwelling Ducks to McDavids team im pretty ****ing pumped. Guy - he just needs a smaller workload (which Smith provides) and then to get to the playoffs. Where he can get a chance to prove himself. And I think the chance at a cup by playing with McDavid, Leon, Nurse, RNH, Hyman is too good to pass up. A improved D, maybe move Kassian, and Gibson would make me bet on EDM this year.

No team is a lock for the cup imo. Tampa needs a new third line or they’re not 3-peating (they could by trade or internally but we need to see it). Colorado is strong but they didn’t really address what lost them their last series; they’re the favourite tho imo. And the east is so deep. Vegas is crippled without Patches and Stone - they could free fall tbh. The isles may be my second favourites but again, the East is deep.

The <strong>Rangers</strong> are super tempting to make some headaches in the Metro and the <strong>Sens</strong> in the Atlantic. For example; those two teams WILL NOT make the playoffs (but never say never IG lol) - but Ottawa and the Rags are gonna be causing problems I think.</div></div>

I'm not as anti-Gibson as a few Oiler fans are and I've learned to read between the statlines a touch. I think he's still very much a quality netminder and would be in the upper echelon of goaltenders if the Ducks ever had the virtue to find him a new home. Part of the problem is I'm also not near as anti-Koskinen as most every other hockey fan either for the inverse of why I'm not anti-Gibson. The math shows that Mikko can be <em>phenomenal</em> for stretches, and like you point out with Gibson just required better tandem management and a competent blueline in front of him.

I understand that the Oilers are going to need to send assets out in order to improve *something* on their roster. Given the current cap setup and especially with the next two years of financial juggling the Oilers will have to undertake, I'm staunchly against $9M spent on two goaltenders. The Oilers are already going to be spending over 50% of their cap on their forwards, possibly upwards of 67%. There is a far greater need to upgrading the blueline - especially in consideration to next season - than there would be to acquire a really, really good goaltender. A consistently average goaltender can take a team to the cup finals if the team in front of him gives two damns hand over fist in their quest for glory. Khudobin did it in very recent memory. Every bit of math and in-depth analysis shows the overarching difference between a .917sv% and a .927sv% netminder is borderline negligible over the course of a season. Math and analysis go out the window once the postseason arrives. If Vasilevskiy was such a game-changer for the Lightning, we'd never seen them busted apart by the Blue Jackets; the Vezina trophy would always coincide with the cup-winning netminder.

If Holland hadn't wildly pissed away his cap space this summer on the corpses of Ceci and Keith, I'd be far more into acquiring Gibson. The money just isn't there for it to mean sustainable success for Edmonton.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 6:20 pm
Sujet: Avs or Leafs did yall ever try Barrie up front
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ragsandbluesfan</b></div><div>With Foegele Ryan Perlini likely being the 3rd line, that really keaves you Kassian, who needs other play drivers, and Benson who doesn't really work in a 4th line role</div></div>

You quote the need for a play driver in reference to the fourth line for Kassian but contend that Benson doesn't work in a fourth line role, I'm guessing because he's a skilled player lite? Is the goal a traditional fourth line or a super sheltered skilled-ish line that isn't going to get caved in at even strength? What team has the kind of fourth line you're looking for, just so I have a reference?

In acquiring Getzlaf, I tried for the traditional fourth line approach with Sceviour, Ryan, and Kassian. They probably aren't scoring much but they aren't going to bleed chances against. If we're strictly looking at the fourth line now, Kassian is going to be skating with Foegele and Ryan tonight. I believe the fourth line is Perlini and Turris centered by McLeod.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 6:13 pm
Sujet: Avs or Leafs did yall ever try Barrie up front
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ragsandbluesfan</b></div><div>Well outside the top 9 theres 0 good players so maybe get him some linemates</div></div>

I don't think you're being completely honest with that assessment and until you're willing to reach something more realistic. I've seen you make this claim a couple times and I don't know how to continue this conversation with you if you aren't willing to entertain the idea of a middle ground.

Ryan is a decent bottom-six piece, I'm not thrilled with him being penciled into the third line this season, but on the fourth line he's a gem of a player. The math suggests that any of Benson, Kassian, and Perlini <em>should</em> be over performing in fourth-line roles, and Sceviour is at minimum not going to cost goals against. Granted the Oilers religiously employ dinosaurs at every level of management and won't get out of their own way to allow those on-ice results to show.

I'd agree that Archibald and Shore were employed to penalty-kill and offer nothing else above replacement level. The less they play the better this team does.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 5:53 pm
Sujet: Avs or Leafs did yall ever try Barrie up front
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>On the Caps side, a few weeks back, another Oilers fan posted something like Barrie, Kassian, Broberg for Carlson. I thought the Caps didn't need Kassian, but other Caps fans liked Broberg enough to agree to the whole thing. Then some Oilers fans asked WSH to add, but didn't say what, and it looks like it got taken down.

So.... that might be one way out of Barrie and Kassian, if they're not wanted, but I don't know what WSH should add, either, or what prospect/pick is more reasonable than Broberg.</div></div>

I'm not as glued to Broberg or Lavoie as I have been in the past BUT Carlson would absolutely be a non-starter for me. Too much term. The point of moving Kassian next year and Ceci the year after is because of the absolute lack of cap space the Oilers are trying to navigate over the short-term. Carlson is a damn fine offensive defender but not at all what the Oilers need to be looking for.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 5:40 pm
Sujet: Avs or Leafs did yall ever try Barrie up front
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Theozler</b></div><div>Offensive ability from blue line does not mean it will translate to forward. Very different types of skill set</div></div>

Absolutely, it's kind of why I asked for some groupthink on the idea as a whole.

Barrie plays a bit of a rover style to begin with and is quite often as high as the half wall when he's in the offensive zone. I've seen him cycle before on the odd occasion. Given that I don't really have a good spot to fit him in on the blueline, I was curious as to what a short-term experiment with him up front would look like and whether or not he could adapt to the role.

The most optimal setup for the Oilers blueline (assuming they still acquire Lindholm) probably looks more like:

Nurse-Bouchard
Lindholm-Ceci
Koekkoek-Barrie

but the unfortunate reality is Tippett likely doesn't have the insight or willingness to sit Keith for any extended period of time. His intangibles are valued too highly by the organization and any detrimental on-ice effects are staunchly ignored as the organization is actually clinically allergic to math of any sorts.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 5:32 pm
Sujet: What would you give the Flyers if Claude Giroux wanted a trade to Ottawa
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>csick</b></div><div>Giroux in the summer would be like Dallas adding Pavelski 2 years ago. You also have Sanderson and Gustavsson joining the team next year</div></div>

I like the Pavelski comparison.

The question marks the Sens would be contending with at that point are Murray, Zaitsev, and Zub. Replacing Holden with Sanderson and Forsberg with Gus full-time is a step in the right direction. I like Zub as a top-four guy, Zaitsev still remains a negative asset, and I'm willing to give Murray another season-ish to try and figure things out before wholly writing him off.

I'm not expecting any of Brannstrom, JBD, or Thompson to become top-pairing right-side defenders overnight (nor do I expect it of any of them tbh). I think that's where the big add would need to be. Replacing Josh Brown with a graduating prospect is going to be a marginal improvement at best and probably keeps the Senators in contention for the W2 spot. A premium add, whomever it may be, could result in the Sens pole-vaulting over Boston and a genuine 'contender' for the top wildcard spot. Usurping the likes of Tampa probably takes another year or two after that.
Forum: NHLSat at 5:27 pm
Sujet: 2021/22 NHL Season Discussion thread
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>yikes</b></div><div>TRADE FOR GIBSON STAN HERE

get Connor and Leon their cups</div></div>

I'd rather pursue Khudobin and tandem him with Smith. The substantial upgrades need to be on Edmonton's blueline and maybe finding a better pivot than McLeod for depth. Another middle-six winger wouldn't hurt either. If Dobby and Smith could maintain .915sv%'s and the Oilers bring in at least one top-4 defender while Vegas takes half a step back, the WCF is the bare minimum for the Oilers. Whether or not that roster could contend with any of the Avalanche, Islanders, Leafs, Lightning, or Panthers is another thing.

Vegas flipping the pair of McNabb and Smith while setting their sights on Eichel and the 2022-23 Cup does pave a much clearer path to a Stanley Cup for the Oilers than what was possible at the onset of the season. I still think the Oilers are distinctly a class behind those teams I listed however.
Forum: NHLSat at 5:07 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 5:02 pm
Sujet: What would you give the Flyers if Claude Giroux wanted a trade to Ottawa
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>csick</b></div><div>He probably signs with ottawa in the summer</div></div>

From the perspective any team not in the Big 4 for the Atlantic, I think this route makes the utmost sense for the Senators. Assuming Philly is among Columbus as the pond scum of the Metropolitan, at best the Senators are vying for the second wildcard berth against two of the Capitals, Devils, and Rangers, plus whatever the Habs are able to muster. When healthy I think the Senators have the top-end talend and forward group to do it, but the goaltending and blueline probably have them on the outside looking in.

I'd personal use any assets hypothetically used to acquire Giroux in this case to add elsewhere on the roster. Some form of substantial add at RD could be had given how tight teams tend to wind up against the cap these days.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 4:35 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 4:32 pm
Sujet: Avs or Leafs did yall ever try Barrie up front
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_Habs_fan</b></div><div>I mean, you don't exactly have much space for Barrie at forward, and he's still kind of good at D</div></div>

Care to elaborate on this a touch? My thinking suggests he'd be no worse a RW than Kassian, whom I really detest being in the top-9 until he can actually show third-line production. Barrie should function more or less as a Hyman that doesn't forecheck if that makes sense?

I don't know if it's a long-term fit, next season Barrie may need to wind back down on the blueline?

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Willwin9</b></div><div>Those 2 firsts are a lot for a 3rd line center and a second pairing D man...</div></div>

The market for both positions is abysmal this season: I see a lot of ANA-NYI trades that see Lindholm going for the equivalent of a first, second, and half decent prospect. I suspect it's a combination of both a deadline and division tax on top of a relatively unfair assessment of what Lindholm is. I agree it's a lot to pay, but the Oilers are very short on options to really go for it over the next season or two.