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Prospect Discussion Thread #3

26 févr. 2023 à 14 h 16
#976
BeterChiarelli
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Modifié 26 févr. 2023 à 14 h 22
Quoting: KSIxSKULLS
I'm taking Fantilli. Not really sure who I'm taking between Carlsson/Michkov. I'm high on Dvorsky, but think he's going 5th for sure.


Curious as to what has you so high on Dvorsky. Math does not like him as much as his contemporaries. Sorting Bob Mackenzie's top-10 by NHLe results in the following:

1. Bedard (RC) - 58.581p
2. Fantilli (LC) - 54.855p
3. Michkov (LW) - 54.182p
4. Smith (RC) - 39.688p
5. Carlsson (LC) - 38.290p
6. Benson (LW) - 37.522p
7. Leonard (RC) - 32.494p
8. Barlow (LW) - 32.021p
9. Yager (RC) - 26.314p
10. Dvorsky (LC) - 23.021p

He's a touch younger for sure but passing on Smith - who's outperforming Carlsson this season - seems foolhardy. There's about a 4 month difference in age between Smith and Dvorsky, this just seems like a massive misstep. Maybe if you're a team picking between Yager and Dvorsky you reach on Dalibor? I haven't ran the numbers on the rest of this class, and a defenceman is bound to (perhaps inappropriately) wind up in the top-10 of this year's forward-heavy class, but Dvorsky seems like he could be had within range of the Florida pick.

I don't think the risk of Michkov not coming overseas is a legitimate threat, but he will commit to the KHL for his mandated amount of time. It's simply going to come down to patience and needs. Looking at Tankathon right now, I'd wager Anaheim the team most apt to take Michkov at #3 should their pick land there. The gap between him and almost the entire rest of the draft is galactic and any pivot south of maybe Carlsson isn't offering a substantial enough upgrade on either Zegras or McTavish.
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27 févr. 2023 à 10 h 1
#977
Db1899
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Sick move, but wrong organization to pull off that move. He’s never getting called up now



28 févr. 2023 à 12 h 30
#978
NHLfan10506
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Seamus Casey, RD/C, NJD



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28 févr. 2023 à 12 h 33
#979
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
Seamus Casey, RD/C, NJD





Really wanted Washington to draft him but we got Chesley. Did we choose right?
1 mars 2023 à 6 h 11
#980
KSIxSKULLS
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Late 2nd and 4th Round pick BTW
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1 mars 2023 à 10 h 19
#981
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Quoting: KSIxSKULLS








Late 2nd and 4th Round pick BTW


Death, Taxes, and a Habs prospect getting insane amounts of hype
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1 mars 2023 à 10 h 21
#982
KSIxSKULLS
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Quoting: oilersguy
Death, Taxes, and a Habs prospect getting insane amounts of hype


There's a difference between getting hype and putting up the best numbers in the league
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1 mars 2023 à 10 h 28
#983
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Quoting: oilersguy
Death, Taxes, and a Habs prospect getting insane amounts of hype


Sorry not everyone can be on Carter Savoie's level. His latest secondary assist was insane.
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1 mars 2023 à 10 h 37
#984
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Quoting: KSIxSKULLS
There's a difference between getting hype and putting up the best numbers in the league


it is just it feels like every year there is a Habs prospect that is getting so much hype it is crazy, Romanov, Caufield especially, Roy, even Fucale, and now Hutson and I know I am forgetting about some guys, I got on youtube and I see guys who claim to talk about every NHL post dozens of videos on these Habs prospects and I guarantee you if these guy were on different teams they wouldn't be talked about as much
1 mars 2023 à 10 h 42
#985
oilersguy
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Quoting: SevenLeg
Sorry not everyone can be on Carter Savoie's level. His latest secondary assist was insane.


Carter Savoie has been injured like every other week since he turned pro, and Savoie was exciting because he actually was getting talked about by people who aren't in Oilers circles. and plus the Oilers AHL coach refuses to give the real playing time, Bourgault gets like 8 minutes a night
1 mars 2023 à 11 h 1
#986
KSIxSKULLS
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Modifié 1 mars 2023 à 11 h 12
Quoting: oilersguy
it is just it feels like every year there is a Habs prospect that is getting so much hype it is crazy, Romanov, Caufield especially, Roy, even Fucale, and now Hutson and I know I am forgetting about some guys, I got on youtube and I see guys who claim to talk about every NHL post dozens of videos on these Habs prospects and I guarantee you if these guy were on different they wouldn't be talked about


Romanov = Playing time in the KHL was crazy for his age. Won WJC Best defensemen

Caufield = put up historical college numbers. Won the Hobey Baker. Best shooter in college junior history

Roy = Won QMJHL MVP. Put up most points in the Q last year. Made team Canada

What do you expect us to do? any players that do this get hyped regardless of which team drafts them.

There's a reason players like Luke Tuch, Jan Mysak, Joni Ikonen, Jacob Oloffson don't get hype despite being hype round draft picks from Montreal. You have to prove yourself to get hype. It's not from nowhere.
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1 mars 2023 à 11 h 14
#987
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Quoting: KSIxSKULLS
Romanov = Playing time in the KHL was crazy for his age. Won WJC Best defensive

Caufield = put up historical college numbers. Won the Hobey Baker. Best shooter in college junior history

Roy = Won QMJHL MVP. Put up most points in the Q last year. Made team Canada

What do you expect us to do? any players that do this get hyped regardless of which team drafts them.

There's a reason players like Luke Tuch, Jan Mysak, Joni Ikonen, Jacob Oloffson don't get hype despite being hype round draft picks from Montreal. You have to prove yourself to get hype. It's not from nowhere.


yeah I understand that these guys are doing well but it just feel like Habs prospects who do well get talked about a lot more by unbias hockey people then other teams who have prospects who do well

like Raphael Lavoie has been playing very good for the Condors ever and even had a 4 goal night a couple of weeks ago since Christmas and it is really encouraging because his pro career had been disappointing up until this point. and Ty Tullio has also been doing very well for a AHL rookie, after scoring only 8 points before christmas now has 17 points 20 games since then and had a hattrick the same night as Lavoie's 4 goal night but I have seen anything about them outside of the guys who cover Oilers prospects, and I didn't even bother posting about them on this thread because I just know know-one is going to care because at best those guys become constant 3rd liners if they make the NHL at all
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1 mars 2023 à 11 h 27
#988
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There is a lot of news today around incoming NCAA President, Charlie Baker. A lot of the conversation is around compensation for student-athletes as there have been a number of state-level changes, lawsuits and policy recommendations to allow NCAA players to get paid. Right now, they are allowed to make income off their name, image and likeness (NIL), which has been in effect for about a year and a half. But there is new pressure to allow these athletes to accept wages/salaries, which would require the NCAA to make many wholesale changes (the “student-employee model”).

The most notable piece for hockey fans is his openness the employee route. Some of his concerns pertain to a lack of consumer protection with NIL.

If NCAA were to ever adopt a formal approach allowing students to be paid as employees of the school, even if those payments are just stipends, it would likely remove the biggest obstacle for CHL players to move to NCAA. Right now, the stipend that CHL players revives disqualifies them from NCAA eligibility.

If these changes were made, CHL will likely counter-act to prevent their 19/20 years from leaving for NCAA (flip side is they would likely add to their ranks from Junior A and USHL).

No changes are imminent, but it is worth following since it will have profound impacts on junior hockey in North America. If they stick with, and strengthen, NIL model, the effect on junior hockey will be minor. But if they opt for employee model, impact will be huge.
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1 mars 2023 à 11 h 29
#989
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Question did the capitals make a mistake passing on Casey and choosing Chesley
1 mars 2023 à 11 h 29
#990
KSIxSKULLS
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Quoting: oilersguy
yeah I understand that these guys are doing well but it just feel like Habs prospects who do well get talked about a lot more by unbias hockey people then other teams who have prospects who do well

like Raphael Lavoie has been playing very good for the Condors ever and even had a 4 goal night a couple of weeks ago since Christmas and it is really encouraging because his pro career had been disappointing up until this point. and Ty Tullio has also been doing very well for a AHL rookie, after scoring only 8 points before christmas now has 17 points 20 games since then and had a hattrick the same night as Lavoie's 4 goal night but I have seen anything about them outside of the guys who cover Oilers prospects, and I didn't even bother posting about them on this thread because I just know know-one is going to care because at best those guys become constant 3rd liners if they make the NHL at all


You said it yourself, Lavoie's pro career has been disappointing (I follow him because former Moosehead). A performance here and there are nice, but that doesn't build hype. You barely heard anything about Jesse Ylonen or RHP while they were playing in the AHL but look at them now. Think once prospects hit professional, the hype dies down so the Lavoie affect applies to Montreal too.
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1 mars 2023 à 11 h 31
#991
KSIxSKULLS
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
There is a lot of news today around incoming NCAA President, Charlie Baker. A lot of the conversation is around compensation for student-athletes as there have been a number of state-level changes, lawsuits and policy recommendations to allow NCAA players to get paid. Right now, they are allowed to make income off their name, image and likeness (NIL), which has been in effect for about a year and a half. But there is new pressure to allow these athletes to accept wages/salaries, which would require the NCAA to make many wholesale changes (the “student-employee model”).

The most notable piece for hockey fans is his openness the employee route. Some of his concerns pertain to a lack of consumer protection with NIL.

If NCAA were to ever adopt a formal approach allowing students to be paid as employees of the school, even if those payments are just stipends, it would likely remove the biggest obstacle for CHL players to move to NCAA. Right now, the stipend that CHL players revives disqualifies them from NCAA eligibility.

If these changes were made, CHL will likely counter-act to prevent their 19/20 years from leaving for NCAA (flip side is they would likely add to their ranks from Junior A and USHL).

No changes are imminent, but it is worth following since it will have profound impacts on junior hockey in North America. If they stick with, and strengthen, NIL model, the effect on junior hockey will be minor. But if they opt for employee model, impact will be huge.


It's a big controversy in the CHL as well. Think either they both do, or neither do. Many teams won't survive it if they have to pay them, which is the big problem. It hurts the product massively.
1 mars 2023 à 11 h 40
#992
NHLfan10506
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Quoting: KSIxSKULLS
It's a big controversy in the CHL as well. Think either they both do, or neither do. Many teams won't survive it if they have to pay them, which is the big problem. It hurts the product massively.


In ten years, NCAA and junior hockey are going to look far more different than they are today.

My solution - allow any pre-draft age player to freely move around leagues. I just hate seeing kids get locked into to something at age 16 that might not be the best route for them at age 18.

For instance, say a player plays in WHL as 16-year old, but later decides he wants to play college. He could then declare himself a NCAA player before his draft year, continue in WHL until he joins NCAA at age 19.
1 mars 2023 à 18 h 33
#993
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That guy the Oilers got for JP just did the michigan
4 mars 2023 à 5 h 31
#994
BigBallsBriere
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Who know's if he becomes anything but JR Avon a undrafted FA looks like he's decent at this Hockey Thing.

He's 19 Playing in the OHL with the Petes

21-22 64 GP, 68 Points
22-23 55GP, 60 Points
5 mars 2023 à 12 h 40
#995
KSIxSKULLS
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Future Norris Winner
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5 mars 2023 à 16 h 11
#996
aadoyle
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Mintenmania
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6 mars 2023 à 12 h 7
#997
MatthewsFan
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This was a good thread and something I’ve thought about with teams that stack up on draft picks.
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6 mars 2023 à 12 h 16
#998
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Quoting: MatthewsFan




This was a good thread and something I’ve thought about with teams that stack up on draft picks.


We’re kind of seeing it with LA and NYR no?, where players are just stuck and not developing because there’s too many of them
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6 mars 2023 à 12 h 18
#999
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Quoting: A_Habs_fan
We’re kind of seeing it with LA and NYR no?, where players are just stuck and not developing because there’s too many of them


BUF and ANA too
6 mars 2023 à 18 h 22
#1000
BigBallsBriere
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7th Round Pick has been lighting it up.
 
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