I generally understand the idea that Habs would like to get a good haul for a D-man that plays first pair in their team.
With that notion, the huge issue is that there's not a single team besides Habs in the entire league that would have Chiarot play their first pair. This especially applies to the contenders, who are the only ones interested in adding such an asset at the deadline.
I just don't see teams willing to spend a top-4 D-man's value for a player that would end up playing third pair role. Or bottom-4 in certain cases.
Habs LHD core might be the weakest in the entire league. They have huge amount of them, but all of them are comparably very, very meh.
If you don't believe me, let's go teams through one by one, alphabetically.
A disclaimer: when I say there is no need for the guy, I mean that there's no need for adding the guy at the price Habs are looking for
ANA: Lindholm, Fowler - both better than Chiarot, so no need for him.
ARI: Chychrun, Gostisbehere - out of the playoffs anyway so they won't be in the market.
BOS: this one is actually the one where Chiarot might end up being near the top pair due to their current LHDs, Grzelcyk, Reilly and Forbort being pretty much as good as Chiarot is. But they don't really need a fourth Chiarot, do they?
BUF: Dahlin - but not in the market for strengthening anyway.
CGY: Hanfiin, and to an extent Kylington too, he's been very good this year - no need for Chiarot here either.
CAR: Slavin, Skjei - no need or room for Chiarot.
CHI: they might actually have an use for a LHD because their defense sucks, but they need more of a puckmoving D-man so Chiarot's profile don't really match this one. But after spending so much futures on Jones I don't think they'll be on the market and at the very least they are not going to be willing to spend the amount MTL wants, especially now that Bowman's gone.
COL: Toews, Girard - and with Byram, Murray and Johnson too COL is not going to be in that market.
CBJ: Werenski, Gavrikov - not likely in the market anyway as buyers.
DAL: Lindell - might be about as good as Suter, but DAL sucks anyway this year so they should be sellers and not buyers.
DET: Leddy - Chiarot might be making it to top4 here, but once again it's a selling team so there's going to be no interest here.
EDM: Nurse - Chiarot is probably the best fit here because Keith, Koekkoek and Russell are blah, but apparently Holland is not going to be spending assets during this market anyway so I suppose it'll be a no go.
FLA: Weegar - FLA is the highest rumored team to be after a top4 D-man in the league, but at the same time they are after Chychrun too and to be fair if I'd be spending huge assets by the deadline for a top4 D-man, Chychrun takes the cake 100 out of 100 times against Chiarot. Maybe if FLA takes a more reasonable return they might be willing to make a deal, but I don't see them paying anything more than Nutivaara+2nd.
LA: this is similar to Boston, they have lots of LHDs already able to play second or third pair but they're lacking a first pair one, and Chiarot is not exactly an upgrade of any of what they currently have.
MIN: Brodin, Goligoski - simply no need for Chiarot here
NSH: Josi, Ekholm - it's the same old story, no need to pay a premium for a third pair D-man.
NJD: one of the worst LHD cores in the league here too but they're not buyers by any means. Their D talent plays mostly the right side.
NYI: Pelech - there's certainly an opening for a second pair D-man, but since Pelech is already a more defensive D-man anyway they'd likely prefer and need a puck-moving D-man, so the situation is relatively similar to Chicago, with the fit not being there
NYR: Lindgren - NYR is probably your best bet if Habs want a top4 D-man return, but similar to FLA, they're after bigger fish in Chychrun. Chiarot is their plan B, and likely the only team willing to spend on him to play the top4 role due to Miller, Nemeth and Hajek being a bit subpar. Their RHDs are extremely talented, so that does compensate a bit on what they currently have.
OTT: Chabot - but they're not buyers, although Chiarot would probably fit their second pair.
PHI: Prorovorv, Sanheim - they're playing is trash anyway so Fletcher could in theory add Chiarot as a desperation move, but honestly there's no need here and they SHOULDN'T be buyers this time. Predicting what Flyers are doing is very hard right now.
PIT: Dumoulin, Pettersson, maybe even Matheson based on his latest performance - honestly their LHD core is doing pretty well. No need or room for Chiarot here
SJ: Ferraro - their LHD core is also weak and there should be room for Chiarot, but they shouldn't be buying right now anyway, they need those picks to build future. They are not contending. They're basically a little better but older version of New Jersey.
SEA: Giordano - they have also Soucy, Dunn and Oleksiak so no huge need for strengthening, and it's not like they're buyers anyway. Soucy is probably in the trade market as well for exact similar role as Chiarot is playing as is likely the more interesting option for teams due to his extra year of term, too.
STL: Krug - this is an interesting one, since there's an opening for the second pair role, but they have almost zero cap, and some young guys in Mikkola and Perunovich eyeing for that second pair role. There's Scandella too, but he reminds me of Chiarot anyway in terms of being defensive and fitting better to a third pair role anyway.
TB: Hedman, McDonagh, Sergachev - the only team that does spend first rounders for exact depth strengthening (Goodrow, Savard for example). Only problem here is that Tampa's LHD core is the best in the league and there's no room for Chiarot here whatsoever. So they're out.
TOR: Rielly, Muzzin - a classic example of a team who in theory could need an experienced playoff asset to the third pair, but because the need is for a third pair one I don't see high motivation to pay a top4 price for the guy.
VAN: Hughes, Ekman-Larsson - unfortunately Benning isn't here anymore paying you two firsts and Podkolzin for the guy, but even if he was realistically speaking there's no huge need for Chiarot anyway.
VGK: Theodore, Martinez - no need or cap space for the guy
WSH: Orlov - this is fairly similar to NYR and one of the teams with most need for a guy like Chiarot to play a top4 role. My personal opinion is that WSH is the best trade partner out of all, but do they have the cap space for the guy?
WPG: Morrissey, Dillon - I don't see Chiarot returning here. No real need for the guy and their LHD depth is already pretty solid.
See what I mean? MTL would want a top4 value out of the guy, but realistically speaking there's very few teams that would
a) use him in the top4
b) willing to pay that much for a D-man playing in a lesser role
NYR is reportedly interested in both of these guys. Taking them in and dumping Nemeth's contract might be the best way for MTL to get some value out of the guys.
all that typing just to be proved wrong by actual insiders saying he'll fetch a 1st. rmr savard also fetched a 1st and chiarot is better. good effort though.
all that typing just to be proved wrong by actual insiders saying he'll fetch a 1st. rmr savard also fetched a 1st and chiarot is better. good effort though.
Trust me, stupider things have happened in this league. I'm sharing my opinion and it's that wasting a first for him is a mistake.
I've never said it won't happen. There's just very little sense behind it, and the team doing it is very likely going to regret it.
all that typing just to be proved wrong by actual insiders saying he'll fetch a 1st. rmr savard also fetched a 1st and chiarot is better. good effort though.
As you showed......LHD seems probably the most abundant of positions. Lots of options for buyers, and potentially lots of sellers.
I don't disagree at all with this logic, but there is always a desperate GM who will overpay. TDL and FA day, GM's always overpay. Solid top four tough, physical D who can skate and munch minutes. Someone will overpay for him, even if he ends up on the third pair.
imo you did good with the analysis. on the trade, however...
nemeth is still owed $5,712,500 on his contract and is not very good anymore. if we look at previous cap dump trades...
To ARZ:
Antoine Roussel
Jay Beagle
Loui Eriksson
2021 1st (Dylan Guenther)
2022 2nd
2023 7th
To VAN:
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (990K retained)
Conor Garland
lets assume the first and second were to dump eriksson, beagle, roussel.
eriksson was owed 4M of salary.
beagle was owed 2.2M of salary.
roussel was owed 1.9M of salary.
it took dylan guenther and a second round pick to dump 8.1M of salary, and a 12M cap hit.
and it took conor garland to dump ekman larsson, with 990K retained.
garland was given a 4.95M contract over 6 years.
in total, 25.2M of cap hit (for this season) was exchanged.
VAN took on 12.21M of cap hit, ARZ took 12.9M of cap hit.
the only real value was in guenther and garland.
lets divide what VAN took on in half, and see what they got in compensation.
6.105M for a player half as valuable as conor garland.
so a player worth about 2.5M, but since nemeth is slightly less,
luke kunin.
what was he traded for?
Bonino + 2nd + 3rd for Kunin + 4th. in reality, Bonino + 2nd = nothing, so Kunin is worth a 3rd and a 4th (possible to trade up to a second)
so it should take a second to dump nemeth, like it took a second to dump marc staal.
TLDR
ben chiarot is worth a first. so a 2nd + cuylle should do that.
a second is to dump nemeth.
so lehkonen for... nothing?
Absolutely accurate in-depth analysis. Even the implied conclusion -- he isn't what Montreal's fans (and probably their GM) are asking, but some idiot will pay it -- is brilliant.
all that typing just to be proved wrong by actual insiders saying he'll fetch a 1st. rmr savard also fetched a 1st and chiarot is better. good effort though.
All that reading to just say a bunch of stuff that is wrong. Insiders have speculated that he'll get a 1st. there is no rumour here. Savard got a 1st chariot is worse.
all that typing just to be proved wrong by actual insiders saying he'll fetch a 1st. rmr savard also fetched a 1st and chiarot is better. good effort though.
That's great that you think he's worth a first and insiders have said he could maybe get a first. They said the exact same thing about Jamie Oleksiak, teams would rather hold their assets and get a shot at him in UFA than over spend on a replaceable asset that doesn't fit their roster perfectly at the deadline. The market is flush with D this year too, why would a team overspend on Chiarot as opposed to really overspending on a better asset or acquiring a similar asset for less, Klingberg, Manson, Holl, Chychrun, Giordano etc. etc.
imo you did good with the analysis. on the trade, however...
nemeth is still owed $5,712,500 on his contract and is not very good anymore. if we look at previous cap dump trades...
To ARZ:
Antoine Roussel
Jay Beagle
Loui Eriksson
2021 1st (Dylan Guenther)
2022 2nd
2023 7th
To VAN:
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (990K retained)
Conor Garland
lets assume the first and second were to dump eriksson, beagle, roussel.
eriksson was owed 4M of salary.
beagle was owed 2.2M of salary.
roussel was owed 1.9M of salary.
it took dylan guenther and a second round pick to dump 8.1M of salary, and a 12M cap hit.
and it took conor garland to dump ekman larsson, with 990K retained.
garland was given a 4.95M contract over 6 years.
in total, 25.2M of cap hit (for this season) was exchanged.
VAN took on 12.21M of cap hit, ARZ took 12.9M of cap hit.
the only real value was in guenther and garland.
lets divide what VAN took on in half, and see what they got in compensation.
6.105M for a player half as valuable as conor garland.
so a player worth about 2.5M, but since nemeth is slightly less,
luke kunin.
what was he traded for?
Bonino + 2nd + 3rd for Kunin + 4th. in reality, Bonino + 2nd = nothing, so Kunin is worth a 3rd and a 4th (possible to trade up to a second)
so it should take a second to dump nemeth, like it took a second to dump marc staal.
TLDR
ben chiarot is worth a first. so a 2nd + cuylle should do that.
a second is to dump nemeth.
so lehkonen for... nothing?
If we were to assume that Chiarot is worth a first, then yes, but I don't think he is.
Most recent rental LHDs dealt at the deadline were Martinez, Scandella and Dillon. Martinez got 2nd+2nd, Scandella got 2nd+4th and Dillon got 2nd+3rd.
I think Chiarot falls to the exact same niche as the latter of the guys. Martinez was sold quite cheap honestly.
If Nemeth is too big of a cap dump to be included here, let's just drop him and remove the trade completely.
Also to be fair the OEL example is extremely one of a kind and can't really be used as one to compare to the Chiarot situation. There's nothing similar in these situations.
If we were to assume that Chiarot is worth a first, then yes, but I don't think he is.
Most recent rental LHDs dealt at the deadline were Martinez, Scandella and Dillon. Martinez got 2nd+2nd, Scandella got 2nd+4th and Dillon got 2nd+3rd.
I think Chiarot falls to the exact same niche as the latter of the guys. Martinez was sold quite cheap honestly.
If Nemeth is too big of a cap dump to be included here, let's just drop him and remove the trade completely.
Also to be fair the OEL example is extremely one of a kind and can't really be used as one to compare to the Chiarot situation. There's nothing similar in these situations.
Of martinez scandella and dillon which one played 1st dman icetime on a stanley cup finals team the year prior to being traded?
If we were to assume that Chiarot is worth a first, then yes, but I don't think he is.
Most recent rental LHDs dealt at the deadline were Martinez, Scandella and Dillon. Martinez got 2nd+2nd, Scandella got 2nd+4th and Dillon got 2nd+3rd.
I think Chiarot falls to the exact same niche as the latter of the guys. Martinez was sold quite cheap honestly.
If Nemeth is too big of a cap dump to be included here, let's just drop him and remove the trade completely.
Also to be fair the OEL example is extremely one of a kind and can't really be used as one to compare to the Chiarot situation. There's nothing similar in these situations.
fair enough i could've used the marc staal example but i completely forgot about it
Great effort but what you really proved is that 7 teams (Boston, Florida, Los Angeles, NYR, SJ, St. Louis and Washington) should be in the bidding and 3 more (Calgary, Dallas and Detroit) should/may be in on the bidding as well and then you have the non-playoff teams who aren't likley to be bidding on Chiarot but still have a need for a top 4 D man, teams like Buffalo, Chicago, New Jersey and the Islanders. Also only one of these teams is going to get Chychrun and as you outlined Chiarot is many of these teams plan B. So let the bidding begin!
Of martinez scandella and dillon which one played 1st dman icetime on a stanley cup finals team the year prior to being traded?
Martinez played first pair in LA in the finals four years prior.
Dillon played three years prior.
Difference was that neither of their teams dropped in one year from the top to the bottom as bad as Habs did, and both of those had their contracts extended the year prior their teams being at the top.
Great effort but what you really proved is that 7 teams (Boston, Florida, Los Angeles, NYR, SJ, St. Louis and Washington) should be in the bidding and 3 more (Calgary, Dallas and Detroit) should/may be in on the bidding as well and then you have the non-playoff teams who aren't likley to be bidding on Chiarot but still have a need for a top 4 D man, teams like Buffalo, Chicago, New Jersey and the Islanders. Also only one of these teams is going to get Chychrun and as you outlined Chiarot is many of these teams plan B. So let the bidding begin!
So there's a bit more than a handful teams with room for the guy, but probably two or three actual contenders who would actually benefit for bringing the guy in at the demanded cost (NYR, FLA and WSH).
The demand isn't really that high. There's so much average LHDs in this league already.
imo you did good with the analysis. on the trade, however...
nemeth is still owed $5,712,500 on his contract and is not very good anymore. if we look at previous cap dump trades...
To ARZ:
Antoine Roussel
Jay Beagle
Loui Eriksson
2021 1st (Dylan Guenther)
2022 2nd
2023 7th
To VAN:
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (990K retained)
Conor Garland
lets assume the first and second were to dump eriksson, beagle, roussel.
eriksson was owed 4M of salary.
beagle was owed 2.2M of salary.
roussel was owed 1.9M of salary.
it took dylan guenther and a second round pick to dump 8.1M of salary, and a 12M cap hit.
and it took conor garland to dump ekman larsson, with 990K retained.
garland was given a 4.95M contract over 6 years.
in total, 25.2M of cap hit (for this season) was exchanged.
VAN took on 12.21M of cap hit, ARZ took 12.9M of cap hit.
the only real value was in guenther and garland.
lets divide what VAN took on in half, and see what they got in compensation.
6.105M for a player half as valuable as conor garland.
so a player worth about 2.5M, but since nemeth is slightly less,
luke kunin.
what was he traded for?
Bonino + 2nd + 3rd for Kunin + 4th. in reality, Bonino + 2nd = nothing, so Kunin is worth a 3rd and a 4th (possible to trade up to a second)
so it should take a second to dump nemeth, like it took a second to dump marc staal.
TLDR
ben chiarot is worth a first. so a 2nd + cuylle should do that.
a second is to dump nemeth.
so lehkonen for... nothing?
To be fair, there's a reason why Jim Benning isn't an NHL Gm anymore.
With Nemeth, I'd be curious to hear more thoughts about him...He clearly doesn't fit the Rangers system, which is why I'd question why Chiarot would fair much better? Chiarot is better, but they had pretty similar numbers coming into this season.
Martinez played first pair in LA in the finals four years prior.
Dillon played three years prior.
Difference was that neither of their teams dropped in one year from the top to the bottom as bad Habs did, and both of those had their contracts extended the year prior their teams being at the top.
So you are going to just blatantly lie eh. Martinez in 13-14 averaged 16:37. Aka 6-7 dman icetime. His playoff career average prior to the trade was 15:55. He never made it past round 1 averaging more than 16:37.
Dillon in 15-16 averaged 15:09 and never in any playoff year for the sharks averaged more than 17:38.
Ben chiarot has 54 playoff games over the last 4 years and has averaged 21:14 over that span. They have won 6 rounds in 4 years. He has played big minutes on successful playoff teams.
So there's a bit more than a handful teams with room for the guy, but probably two or three actual contenders who would actually benefit for bringing the guy in at the demanded cost (NYR, FLA and WSH).
The demand isn't really that high. There's so much average LHDs in this league already.
Agreed with all of the above, including your analysis.
FLA, NYR, WSH, EDM are the best targets for a trade, but:
-If I'm Florida and the asking price is 1/3 of what you'd pay for 3 years of Chychrun, I'm going after Chychrun.
-Does he really fit NYR system? If I'm the Rangers, I'm calling Anaheim about Hampus Lindholm.
-You're right, Washington is probably the best fit. Might have the space to do it, but it's not exactly like you'll be bidding against many...
-The Oilers have a lot of spots that they'd benefit improving. Chiarot doesn't fix the bottom 6 or the goaltending, so spending a 1st seems foolish.
Kinda feels like the whole point of contenders aquiring players at the deadline is missed here. Teams aquire players and pay the required prices based on both need and insurance. Only a few teams need a top 4 defenseman, but every gm in the league wants a capable top 4 guy if an injury happens in the playoffs. Thats why teams will pay for a chiarot type player.. an example the leafs wouldve loved to have paid a first over the last 2 playoffs when muzzin went down and had no capable fill. Just a thought, and for the record i dont think chiarot is worth a first+ , but can see him fetching that.
So you are going to just blatantly lie eh. Martinez in 13-14 averaged 16:37. Aka 6-7 dman icetime. His playoff career average prior to the trade was 15:55. He never made it past round 1 averaging more than 16:37.
Dillon in 15-16 averaged 15:09 and never in any playoff year for the sharks averaged more than 17:38.
Ben chiarot has 54 playoff games over the last 4 years and has averaged 21:14 over that span. They have won 6 rounds in 4 years. He has played big minutes on successful playoff teams.
To be completely fair I did not check their ice times from those times, but regardless both of those players did play in cup finals during then and certainly developed into better players afterwards. Both Martinez and Dillon were 26 respectively and played in very stacked teams during their cup final days, unlike Habs honestly. If I recall correctly Martinez was the guy who scored the cup winning goal for the Kings in 2014, no?
Would Chiarot have clocked that ice time in the likes of Pens, Blues for Bolts when they won the cup? No, I don't think he would've. The fact Habs got to the cup final and then got exposed this bad kinda tells the story, that one was more or less a fluke. Similar to my Dallas Stars in 2020. Sheer momentum carried them over teams who choked pretty freaking bad when it counted, starting from the Leafs, then sweeping the Jets and then the Knights.
We come back to the exact point of this whole post - is there a market and demand for a guy who's numbers throughout his career say he's a bottom-4 D-man, but tends to play in a higher role because there's not much competition inside his team? I would say no at the cost Habs want, but for a reasonable one, yes.
I don't think he's worth a first, I think a 2nd+prospect is fair. Will he fetch a first? I dunno, maybe? I just don't think it's a good idea.
Agreed with all of the above, including your analysis.
FLA, NYR, WSH, EDM are the best targets for a trade, but:
-If I'm Florida and the asking price is 1/3 of what you'd pay for 3 years of Chychrun, I'm going after Chychrun.
-Does he really fit NYR system? If I'm the Rangers, I'm calling Anaheim about Hampus Lindholm.
-You're right, Washington is probably the best fit. Might have the space to do it, but it's not exactly like you'll be bidding against many...
-The Oilers have a lot of spots that they'd benefit improving. Chiarot doesn't fix the bottom 6 or the goaltending, so spending a 1st seems foolish.
Kinda feels like the whole point of contenders aquiring players at the deadline is missed here. Teams aquire players and pay the required prices based on both need and insurance. Only a few teams need a top 4 defenseman, but every gm in the league wants a capable top 4 guy if an injury happens in the playoffs. Thats why teams will pay for a chiarot type player.. an example the leafs wouldve loved to have paid a first over the last 2 playoffs when muzzin went down and had no capable fill. Just a thought, and for the record i dont think chiarot is worth a first+ , but can see him fetching that.
The disclaimer I've put there kinda answers your point here
when I say there is no need for the guy, I mean that there's no need for adding the guy at the price Habs are looking for
What I mean by this is that there's many teams that don't need Chiarot in the role he plays in Habs, but there are teams that would use him as a depth piece, just not at the cost Habs would desire.
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