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Pittsburgh Penguins signed Marcus Pettersson (5 Years / $4,025,175 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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28 jan à 12 h 55
#76
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Quoting: Random2152
So no, you do not understand that they have no relation. Good to know.


So a small sample size is a great way to determine how good a player is?
28 jan à 12 h 55
#77
The evil stats guy
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Quoting: hockeyfanatic05
So a small sample size is a great way to determine how good a player is?


You have missed the point so hard it is actually funny. Have a good day, there is nothing left to garner from this conversation.
28 jan à 12 h 57
#78
Rejoint: mai 2018
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Quoting: Random2152
You have missed the point so hard it is actually funny. Have a good day, there is nothing left to garner from this conversation.


Then whats the point? Youre saying Holl is a shutdown guy. Maybe this year he is, but that doesn't mean anything for his future
28 jan à 12 h 57
#79
Chiggy
Rejoint: mai 2017
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Quoting: Random2152
*Ahem*
He IS roughly at his ceiling.
war-basic-chart.png?w=615



May I ask where 27-year-old Justin Holl, who you claim is comparable, lies on that aging curve? Oof that contract is looking bad then.

I would also point out that a few issues with aging curves like this is that every player has a different aging curve (Evolving Wild makes this very clear). Position also impacts the curve and the age where players start. Better players start playing at earlier ages, which skews the math.

Pettersson went from sheltered minutes last year to shut-down minutes this season. He's done fine. This is his first year of doing this and he's 23. You have zero clue what you are talking about. Brian Dumoulin started at age 24 on this team and has been on an upward trajectory since (by pretty much every metric).
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28 jan à 13 h 02
#80
Drumman44
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I abstained from voting because I think the contract is pretty average but I have no idea wtf Pittsburgh is going to have to do to get rid of Jack Johnson and re-sign Schultz.
28 jan à 13 h 02
#81
The evil stats guy
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Quoting: Chigurrhh
2)May I ask where 27-year-old Justin Holl, who you claim is comparable, lies on that aging curve? Oof that contract is looking bad then.

1)I would also point out that a few issues with aging curves like this is that every player has a different aging curve (Evolving Wild makes this very clear). Also it can vary by position. Better players start playing at earlier ages, which skews the math.


1) The site has all the individual ones if you'd like to read them yourself, they all say roughly the same positionally.
https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/
And I'd wager a guy like Peterson is going to be much closer to the average than an Ovie for example.

2) The contract locks up his just past peak years (27-31). Generally a players peak is 23-26 with a gentle (virtually unnoticeable in many cases) decline to 30, right when the contract ends. Perfect!
Holl's place on this ageing curve has nothing to do with this anyway. I never said Holl would improve, you said Peterson would.
28 jan à 13 h 07
#82
gregb569
Rejoint: fév 2019
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Quoting: Random2152
Yeah its:
Muzz-Holl
Mo-Barrie
Dermott-Ceci

toi is not a good indicator, usage is. Also our injuries have been messing with the toi's this year



You are really making a big deal out of a small number of games man. Congrats, your guy has played 1.5 solid seasons. That isn't exactly enough to make definitive claims any more than Holl's record is.



That is exactly what my comment said he is. A 4-5. We just agreed yet you think that makes me an idiot?



Then you say **** like this.... good god man. You spin **** and accuse others explaining reality of spinning. Take you head out of your ass, you seem to be enjoying the smell.



1) situations are different, but they are comparable players
2)Andersson is massively overrated on this site. Look at his contract thread I said he hadn't earned what he got either.
3) Dermott hasn't been extended so we don't have a comparable for him yet, but I see far more upside in Dermott than in Peterson and to even compare them really shows that you have no clue what you are talking about.
4)Nothing you have said here comes remotely close to an actual, logical argument. Not once in your entire rant have you once even flirted with a rational thought, but you still say others are stupid.
Something-something Dunning Kruger.


So even with a magnitude of injuries his TOI is still low? Weird.. Also, TOI is a pretty good indicator, I mean I don't think it's far fetched to say the more time you're on the ice, the bigger role you have...? Can someone else confirm that I'm not crazy?
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28 jan à 13 h 13
#83
The evil stats guy
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Quoting: gregb569
1)So even with a magnitude of injuries his TOI is still low? Weird.. Also, 2) TOI is a pretty good indicator, I mean I don't think it's far fetched to say the more time you're on the ice, the bigger role you have...? Can someone else confirm that I'm not crazy?


1)No, he was first pair with Dermott. The TOI has been weird because they've had to specialise each Dmans usage to spread around the load.
2)TOI is one of the biggest things that analytics have disproven as a tool for judging Dmen. Just because a guy gets played a lot doesn't mean he is good. Likewise smaller toi doesn't mean they are bad etc.
28 jan à 13 h 18
#84
Habs/Pens fan
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Quoting: DrumMan44
I abstained from voting because I think the contract is pretty average but I have no idea wtf Pittsburgh is going to have to do to get rid of Jack Johnson and re-sign Schultz.


They're not re-signing Schultz. He's having a once again injury prone and disappointing year. He has 8 points as an offensive defenseman.
28 jan à 13 h 21
#85
AHL Emissary
Rejoint: jan 2017
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I honestly can't believe there's this much arguing over MP. He's an established NHL defenseman at 23. The Pens wanted him at $3,500,000 last offseason but didnt have the space, and his new contract plus the QA he signed last off-season gives him exactly that amount. It's a good signing for a young guy who's only going to get better barring injury.
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28 jan à 13 h 22
#86
Habs/Pens fan
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Quoting: Jake_H
I honestly can't believe there's this much arguing over MP. He's an established NHL defenseman at 23. The Pens wanted him at $3,500,000 last offseason but didnt have the space, and his new contract plus the QA he signed last off-season gives him exactly that amount. It's a good signing for a young guy who's only going to get better barring injury.


It's just some homer leafs fan stirring up trouble and a bunch of pens falling for the trap.
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28 jan à 13 h 34
#87
gregb569
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Quoting: Random2152
1)No, he was first pair with Dermott. The TOI has been weird because they've had to specialise each Dmans usage to spread around the load.
2)TOI is one of the biggest things that analytics have disproven as a tool for judging Dmen. Just because a guy gets played a lot doesn't mean he is good. Likewise smaller toi doesn't mean they are bad etc.


You're #1 doesn't mean anything to me..literally has nothing to do with what I said?
So what he was 1st pair, he plays the 5th most minutes at EV/PK, idk how you can classify him as a "shutdown" guy?

Also while I agree that TOI isn't the most accurate stat for depicting how good a player is, look at the top 50 in TOI throughout the NHL.. I'd say there's maybe 5-10 guys at max who the general consensus would be that they're "bad". Most of them can be attributed to playing on bad teams and therefor a lack of better options.

Typically IMO, the more you play, the better you are. Only like stated above when the team has no better options, do you play a lot when you're bad.
28 jan à 13 h 48
#88
GM67
Rejoint: jui 2015
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Quoting: Random2152
Your homer glasses are blinding you man. He is overpaid. He should be making 1mil less at least, and that is ignoring the fact that he is just an average defender.


He's overpaid by 1 million because he should be in the 3 million range but they are considering how well he's been developing and if he continues it could be a solid deal. He does not get injured and he plays 82 games. I would have been happy with 3.2 for 5 years but I think the 2nd paired guys are going for 4 million per.
28 jan à 13 h 50
#89
Drumman44
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Quoting: Hockeylover360
They're not re-signing Schultz. He's having a once again injury prone and disappointing year. He has 8 points as an offensive defenseman.


Damn didn't realize he has fallen off that much. I take back my comment, then.
28 jan à 14 h 06
#90
Habs/Pens fan
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Quoting: DrumMan44
Damn didn't realize he has fallen off that much. I take back my comment, then.


It's in 27 games but still he's been a disappointment for the past 3 seasons.
28 jan à 14 h 06
#91
Hugh Hefner of CF
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Is this gonna be DeAngelo deal too?
28 jan à 14 h 16
#92
Rejoint: jui 2016
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Quoting: Random2152
No, I'm calling you a homer because you are ignoring valid arguments and comparisons.


It's a joke to compare Holl to MP. All of MPs numbers show he is already a lot better then Holl, not to mention MP is 23 while Holl is 28 in a few days. If anything this is an underpayment for MP and the leafs overpayed Holl for sure.
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28 jan à 14 h 17
#93
Rejoint: jun 2018
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Modifié 28 jan à 14 h 40
Quoting: Random2152
*Ahem*
He IS roughly at his ceiling.
war-basic-chart.png?w=615



You do understand that being a shut down Dman has nothing to do with how long you've been in the league right?


There are two charts on that at EW, and that is the winger chart not the defense man chart. The defenseman chart peaks at at 26-27 much later than the forwards do.

for the record I want to correct myself here. The defense men do peak earlier on his graphs. Not sure how accurate that is due to defensemen usually staying in the minors longer.
But I do think if you are going to use that chart you should really be using the other one down the page that shows the break down for Forwards and Defense men. It's really the best way to use that.
https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/
28 jan à 15 h 12
#94
First NY Then LA
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As an Anaheim guy, I have two comments:

How's that Pettersson-for-Sprong trade look now?

So Pettersson will now be making what Josh Manson makes. Which one would YOU rather have? (This comment directed primarily to those who think this is an overpay.)
vmark a aimé ceci.
28 jan à 15 h 31
#95
Chiggy
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Quoting: Trickster
Is this gonna be DeAngelo deal too?


Probably not because he has a stronger arbitration case due to putting up a lot of points, even though he leaves a lot to be desired defensively.
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28 jan à 16 h 09
#96
Rejoint: aoû 2017
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Quoting: gregb569
Great contract! Locking up a steady top 4D for 5 years at 4m throughout his prime? Love it


Average Time On Ice:

1. Kris Letang
2. Brian Dumoulin
3. John Marino
4. Justin Schultz
5. Jack Johnson
6. Marc Pettersson
28 jan à 16 h 10
#97
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
As an Anaheim guy, I have two comments:

How's that Pettersson-for-Sprong trade look now?

So Pettersson will now be making what Josh Manson makes. Which one would YOU rather have? (This comment directed primarily to those who think this is an overpay.)


Who would you rather have?

Pettersson or Manson?

I honestly can't tell.
28 jan à 16 h 21
#98
Rejoint: aoû 2017
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Quoting: Hockeylover360
It's just some homer leafs fan stirring up trouble and a bunch of pens falling for the trap.


Blaming a bad contract in Pittsburgh ... on Leaf fans.

CLASSIC
28 jan à 16 h 21
#99
Chiggy
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Quoting: drewjenks
Average Time On Ice:

1. Kris Letang
2. Brian Dumoulin
3. John Marino
4. Justin Schultz
5. Jack Johnson
6. Marc Pettersson


Johnson has inflated ice time due to his usage on the PK and moving up the lineup to replace an injured Dumoulin. At 5v5, Pettersson has been stapled to the second pairing the entire season with Schultz and then Marino as his partners. He also isn't used on the PP.
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28 jan à 16 h 58
#100
Hugh Hefner of CF
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Quoting: Chigurrhh
Probably not because he has a stronger arbitration case due to putting up a lot of points, even though he leaves a lot to be desired defensively.


So your saying DeAngelo gets more money on 5 year deal?
 
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