Random2152

The evil stats guy
Membre depuis
30 jun 2018
Équipe préférée
Maple Leafs de Toronto
Deuxième équipe préférée
Hurricanes de la Caroline
Messages dans les forums
5105
Messages par jour
7,9
Sujets de discussion
130
Biographie
I like stats and 30 day bans - So come at me bro
Forum: NHL SigningsThu at 12:17 pm
Sujet: Toronto Maple Leafs signed Kristians Rubins (2 Years / $785,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>draft_em_sign_em_trade_em</b></div><div>That's why I thought your puck moving and booming shot comment was funny, his AHL average puck moving skills and above average hard shot would be a below average NHL standards. This is why I believe it's solely an AHL contract, replace Vinnie Loverde as the long serving man on the DCorps. Of course Holl didn't look great as an AHL but made the Leafs Top 4 eventually. I'd like to see Kral play pro games, there might be potential there.</div></div>

Holl did look good as a Marlie. again what are you talking about? He was one of the more underrated guys (who both Keefe and Dubas pointed out as a highly underrated player years ago)
Forum: Armchair-GMWed at 1:59 am
Forum: Armchair-GMWed at 1:29 am
Sujet: how the Leafs shoud look like
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>draft_em_sign_em_trade_em</b></div><div>
1)Mats Sundin was a 200 feet player, Matthews is a cherry picker in the offensive zone.

2)Old school GM's would have convinced Matthews agent to take equal or slightly less than J.T. , evil (dumb) stat guys (ahem) get fooled and end up looking foolish and ruining the NHL by pushing the salaries higher for every player.

3)Pasta hit the 70 point mark in his contract year, Nylander hit 61. Larkin hit 63 in his contract year. Ehlors hit 60 in his contract year. All players (along with Draisaitl) were from the same Draft year, so how did Nylander "earn" his half a million overpayment ? Dubas cave with the holdout.

4)Marner contract is hard to compare with anyone since he compares more with centers than wingers, look around in the NHL and hardly find any Elite play making passing wingers.</div></div>

1) Ahh. You don't watch the games. Got it. Mats has had very good defensive impacts. There is a reason why that Selke quote from Shanny exists.
2) Proof please. Old school GM Lou paid Marleau and Zaitsev.
3) don't care about points but even then that isn't a huge difference. Remember that neither of Pasta or Larkin held out for 5 months.
Also, how do you not understand that a hold out is a leverage gaining tactic. The whole point is that it adds leverage to the player. It isn't caving in to give them 250k (imo) - 700k (iyo) more. That is called negotiation. This isn't difficult to understand.
4) What?!?! Gaudreau, Reinhart, Rantenen, Aho (when he was a winger), Huberdeau, etc.
We are done here. A statement like that is beyond absurd and proves this isn't a productive talk.
Forum: Armchair-GMWed at 1:22 am
Sujet: how the Leafs shoud look like
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafs_and_Sens_Fan</b></div><div><strong>113 point/82 games = 1.378 PPG for Malkin
73 points/68 games = 1.074 PPG for Matthews
64 points/67 games = 0.955 PPG for Eichel</strong>
1.074/1.378 = 0.78
He had 3/4 the number of points to game not even taking into account he missed a bunch of games.
78% of 12.5M is 9.75M. Remember you're the one who brought up Malkin as a comparable...
1.074/0.955 = 1.13 (rounded up)
11.3M on an 8 year deal?
Plus he was playing with Nylander who is an elite player. Who was Eichel playing with?</div></div>

Reinhart, but also remember the whole IDGAF about points in player evaluation thing? Cause I don't. I know some people do so I included it. (I also don't know where you are getting that 8 year from as Geno signed for 5 but I digress).

Here is Geno throughout his BEST years (not his contract years, but his peak play when he was unstoppable. I am stacking this is Malkin's favour here to make my point):
<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ECNKJNoXkAYdyOp?format=png&amp;name=small" alt="ECNKJNoXkAYdyOp?format=png&amp;name=small"><img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ECNKJNlWsAM6OOC?format=png&amp;name=small" alt="ECNKJNlWsAM6OOC?format=png&amp;name=small"><img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ECNKJNpWkAAAWaE?format=png&amp;name=small" alt="ECNKJNpWkAAAWaE?format=png&amp;name=small">

And here is Mats once more in his contract years:
<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5MvGlmUUAAKzkw?format=png&amp;name=900x900" alt="D5MvGlmUUAAKzkw?format=png&amp;name=900x900">

Geno had some good really years, but these were after he signed his contract and Mats is still comparable
Forum: Armchair-GMWed at 1:04 am
Sujet: how the Leafs shoud look like
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafs_and_Sens_Fan</b></div><div>
Malkin had an 113 point season and multiple 100+ point seasons when he signed that contract with a 47 goal season.
Matthews had a 73 point season and a high of 37 goals when he signed his contract.
Yes, McDavid took a discount, however, I took that into account.
Matthews' comparable should have been Eichel. Yes, he is better than Eichel but not 1.6M and 3 years less term better.
I think 12.75Mx8 (notice it's higher than McDavid's contract (not because he is better)) or 10.5Mx5 (still more money and less term than Eichel) would have been very fair.
If they didn't overpay Matthews they could have gotten Marner for less too. Get Matthews for a million less and Marner probably takes a million less too.
2 million dollars in cap space would have been amazing for us.</div></div>

Matthews had a 40 goal season high in his rookie year, looked like a better goal scorer (still does) and was injured the next two seasons. On a PPG pace it is much closer.
I also don't give a **** about points in player evaluation anyway.
Matthews had done FAR more than Eichel at the time of signing, both from a PPG standpoint but also this:
<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5GpsveUwAEHaZZ?format=png&amp;name=900x900" alt="D5GpsveUwAEHaZZ?format=png&amp;name=900x900">
Matthews &gt;&gt;&gt; Eichel. To say otherwise is to be talking from your ass.
Forum: Armchair-GMWed at 12:58 am
Sujet: how the Leafs shoud look like
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TMLSage</b></div><div>Marner is a franchise player for the Leafs and the Leafs are really lucky that Mark Hunter drafted him.</div></div>

Not saying he isn't. Saying we paid him more than we needed to.
Why do people always forget that JT is also a franchise player for the Leafs, and a better one at that. He has a history of making terrible wingers look very, very good. It stands to reason that he would make a very good winger even better too.

Here is the non-analytic argument:
JT's points increased by 4, Marner's increased by 25. That tells me that JT's role simply changed while Mitch was being buoyed by an elite player.

The Analytic argument is much less rosy:
<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUfjgKFXkAIHzGx?format=jpg&amp;name=900x900" alt="EUfjgKFXkAIHzGx?format=jpg&amp;name=900x900">
Forum: Armchair-GMWed at 12:42 am
Sujet: how the Leafs shoud look like
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TMLSage</b></div><div>Okay, I get it that you do not value a player who puts up 90-100 points a year, helps both Tavares and Matthews to achieve their all time goal scoring stats when playing with him, plays 5x5, PP and PK and is one of the most popular players on the team with both his teammates, fans and coach. Just curious what are the importants details you have to arrive at a lower evaluation of Marner?</div></div>

Underlying metrics, eye test, etc.
Especially the underlyings showed that Mitch and Willie are still in lock step in terms of value and that JT helped Mitch a TON more then Mitch helped JT. Mitch has the edge but it isn't the chasm that his contract or people's opinion on him would paint.
Forum: Armchair-GMWed at 12:36 am
Sujet: how the Leafs shoud look like
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>draft_em_sign_em_trade_em</b></div><div>Matthews = strong believer in the fact Matthews should have honored J.T. and sign for equal money as the best co-leaders.
Kerfoot = I understand and agree with your point.
Nylander = never should have asked for Draisaitl type money and should have been came in a little under Pasta.
Johnsson and Kappy = last summer ACGM quotes at the high 2 millions sounded good to me.
Ceci = he was only owed the Q.O. but someone got that 200k.
Marner = he should have landed between Draisaitl and Kucherov contracts. Marner hasn't sucked, his ppg is still equal to his previous years, just watching him on ice, he is clearly trying too much. I'd like to see him back with J.T. , Marner is trying too hard to find Matthews cherry picking.</div></div>

Okay, but most of these things you mention are simply opinions. They aren't based on anything other than your feelings.

Pasta is on a steal of a contract and Nylander is a better possession winger than Pasta is while also being more versatile in that WN can play 2C. Once more, Nylander had the LONGEST holdout in cap history and only managed to extract 700k from it. Perfectly fine.
Those AGM's (or at least mine) had Kappy and Mango signing for less term, or were done earlier in the season. The ones done over the summer were more or less bang on what they got.
Matthews: Okay? That is your opinion but it has no basis in anything concrete. If Mats had taken the Malkin contract he'd have gotten 5@12.5aav. I am perfectly happy to say Mats hadn't done as much as Geno had at that point, but he was showing he was a better goalscorer (costs more) and was our massive young superstar. For a million less I'd say that is pretty good.
I do not see where you are getting your idea on where Mitch should have landed as once more you opinion isn't based on anything.

ALSO: I just noticed you said something about Mats cherry picking. You don't watch the games do you? Mats has been geenuinely good on the defensive side and has had very strong defensive impact this year
Forum: Armchair-GMWed at 12:13 am
Sujet: how the Leafs shoud look like
I honestly don't understand how people can think this crap. Lets break each player down:

<strong>Matthews</strong>: You are arguing over 634k on a superstar. I'm not worried about that in the slightest.
<strong>Kerfoot</strong>: A negotiation is all about leverage, and everyone who knows anything understands that a team is weakest from a leverage pov when they have just traded to acquire a player. You've already spent the assets to get them so they can use that to inflate their salary. Kerfoot was always going to come in a touch above Kappy and Mango and he was worth it before and has been fine since the signing.
<strong>Nylander:</strong> Had the longest holdout in NHL cap history, a tactic designed to extract more money from the team. In total, after this record holdout he got 700k more, which he has more than lived up to. Once more, not an overpay.
<strong>Johnsson and Kappy</strong>: How many 50 point young twenties something players sign in the two's? Not many. Neither of these guys get the respect they deserve on this site because people look at where they are in the lineup and their point totals and think they are just meh third liners, forgetting that the Leafs have the deepest 1-12 in the league. Kappy is an explosive breakout just waiting to happen and Johnsson is our (not quite as good) Victor Arvidsson. If you don't think those contracts are good then you don't know the first thing about hockey.
<strong>Ceci</strong>: It is 200k. Are we really yelling about 200k on a 1 year contract?
<strong>Marner</strong>: Finally! An actual overpay example. He should have gotten the Rantanen contract (6@9.3), although if you'd been listening to posters on CF Mitch was as good as Mats and desreved this contract RIGHT up until he actually signed it - then he sucked all of a sudden.:rolleyes
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 3:41 pm
Sujet: Dougie Hamilton Sign-and-Trade With Anaheim
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>Fowler had the best single game of any defenseman in the 2018-2019 season and has operated at a high level for most of the last two seasons. If we have to pay more for Hamilton than Fowler and a second, we're not interested.</div></div>

You're basing your opinion off of a single game?
Fowler has been playing at a #4-5 Dman level for a few years, and only recently snapped out of the funk (like 8 months ago). He has been one of those guys that people thought was really good but the Analytics showed his flaws and why he was only okay.
As I said though, he has been good again recently. That still doesn't get you anywhere near Hamilton who has been one of the best Dmen in the entire league recdntly.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 3:32 pm
Sujet: Dougie Hamilton Sign-and-Trade With Anaheim
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hockyluv21</b></div><div>2020 is going to be a great draft for centermen, and it is far more likely that one of those prospects (at the spot that Anaheim is likely to pick at) will be as good or better than Zegras than someone like Drysdale being even close to as valuable as Hamilton will be long-term. That's the bet that you make with a deal like this.</div></div>

But why would you give up on a much more sure thing as a 1C and go gamble again when a 1C is the most coveted position in the entire league. And if you don't and you're right that the draft has many (which most draft experts say the opposite), you now have two 1C's. I see no issue there.

I'm sorry but ANH declines. It just doesn't make sense for them.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 3:25 pm
Sujet: Dougie Hamilton Sign-and-Trade With Anaheim
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hockyluv21</b></div><div>The Ducks have a huge amount of amazing forward prospects, but little in the way of defensemen. This helps to balance out their team and gives them a true franchise guy for 8 years on the right-hand side, as well as a solid LHD piece in Fleury.</div></div>

So who exactly is going to play centre for them? Steel is good, but he projects more as a 2 or a high end 3C. Moving Zegras makes zero sense for them to do.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>Hamilton for Fowler and a second is about right.</div></div>


NOOOOOOOOOO IT IS NOT MY GOD. Hamilton should have won the Norris (had he been healthy). Fowler has been pedestrian for a few years (although recently had a small resurgence to be a solid #3 option)