Random2152

The Enlightened One
Membre depuis
30 jun 2018
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Maple Leafs de Toronto
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155
Biographie
I am always one year ahead of the general public - so I get a lot of hate and no credit.
Forum: NHL SigningsFri at 12:27 pm
Sujet: Arizona Coyotes signed Clayton Keller (8 Years / $7,150,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DoctorBreakfast</b></div><div>Based on the deals given to Keller, Schmaltz, Dvorak, and Chychrun, Chayka likes to bet big and early on his young talent with the hopes that they progress into great players. It's a smart move, assuming all your players grow the way you hope they do, but can end up handcuffing you for a long time if they don't pan out.</div></div>

I mean it's gambling plain and simple. Maybe it works out, who knows I can't see the future, but as of now he hasn't shown anything that this is more than pure gambling. I prefer to have a base of strong underlying numbers before I make a long term commitment to a player and Keller just does not have it.

I think an important question though, is how much of this is on coaching? Arizona is where all offense goes to die; Hall, Kessel, etc. Are his results being killed by poor systems/coaching and if so could he look better with Gallant or a new team?

All maybes and still gambling so I do not like it.
Forum: Armchair-GM 3 jui à 15 h 18
Sujet: Im new to Nhl What team should I cheer for
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MrHockey123</b></div><div>Toronto. I've heard bad things though about there gm and there playoff success against the bruins. I wouldn't mind cheering for a team near toronto like the habs or something</div></div>

I think it is important to remember a few things about what you hear about Toronto.

There are a ton of haters from outside the fanbase and even more from within.

There are a few reasons for this but to put it simply: <strong>the Leafs are the empire</strong>. We are the largest individual market and so we dominate the media like no other team could even dream of doing. The team is one of the original 6 franchises and has a longer history of both winning and losing than most other teams have of existing. Sure the empire has been dead for 35-40 of the last 50 years but now you are seeing a resurgence and no one outside of Toronto wants to see that. The team is young and exciting and has a lot of potential for the next decade or more, and so the other fanbases are not happy about that because, who wants to see the empire win?

In terms of the haters inside the fan base I think it is important to focus on that last statement I made: the 35-50 one. There was a period where the leafs were coming back in the mid 90's early 2000's and a ton of Leafs fans remember this as the glory days since we went into the darkest decade in the teams history after the lockout in 04-05. Thought the 90's and the early 2000's That team was a tough team headed by guys like Wendel clark, Darcy Tucker, tie domi, etc and their hockey opinions got shaped by those years. Since we have been **** ever since they still hold onto those teams as the goal to strive for despite the fact that the NHL has changed and modern roster construction has changed with it.

The new organisation that these old school leafs fans hate are one of the most cutting edge organizations in the sport and leverage the fact that we are the empire to out compete everyone at everything. Whether that is European free agent signings or contract structures that no one else can afford to give the modern leafs have and use every advantage available.

That breeds hate from the other fanbases.
What the old school fanbases hate is that the roster that led us to the conference finals all those years ago isn't how the modern team is being built, or at least how it isn't being focused on. The modern team is all in on skill and a possession style that as mentioned before is cutting edge thinking. People like what they know and unfortunately what these old school leafs fans know has been out of date for 20 years. Combine that with the other fanbases hate for the empire and the constant media attention and it isn't surprising you've heard bad things about the team.

Since the leafs are your closest team I highly suggest cheering for them as they are primed to be good for the next 10 years + and are local. If you have any questions about anything you've heard about them or want to know anything in particular feel free to ask, I am happy to help you out.

Plus if you get on now, you will be getting on before the band wagon really gets going and it'll be all the better.
Forum: Armchair-GM 2 jui à 0 h 02
Sujet: This is REALLY gonna piss some people off - Come join the scream fest
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>draft_em_sign_em_trade_em</b></div><div>Malkin shines playing second fiddle to Crosby, meanwhile J.T. should be shining brighter than the sun right now, getting to play behind Matthews. I don't understand why it's not happening.

It's crazy about Malkin, I thought he was slowing down, hardly hear his name as much but the dude really knows how to fly under the radar.</div></div>

Dude JT put up nearly 50 last year. If that isn't shining I don't know what is. Hell even this year being a 'down' year has been a typically good year for him.
Malkin was kind of hibernating since his big years only being 'one of if not the best 2C's in the league' for awhile but this season he went and rolled back the clock. Good year for him.
Forum: Toronto Maple Leafs 1 jui à 23 h 20
Sujet: New cap is set
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SammyT_51</b></div><div>Eeeeeeeh it is what it is. Pridham is about to earn his paycheque</div></div>

Honestly I am not particularly worried. The reason the Leafs are so close to the cap is because everyone is signed for the foreseeable future. If we had to sign a guy like Cirelli, Pettersson, Hughes or Laine in that time period I'd be worried. Actually Bim Jenning's Free Agent Follies are REALLY going to hurt them. Everyone talks about the Leafs but **** is that team ever screwed. They are going to be hard pressed to dump cap and need to find a way to keep the big two. The Islanders also need to find a way to Keep Barzal even though they spend nearly as much as the Leafs on their F core already and are weighted down by FA's.

So am I worried? Not really. Will we need to be careful and work around a tight cap? Yes, but everyone will. We are actually better positioned than most teams to get through this imo.
Forum: Armchair-GM 1 jui à 23 h 13
Sujet: This is REALLY gonna piss some people off - Come join the scream fest
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>draft_em_sign_em_trade_em</b></div><div><a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1389136">https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1389136</a>

A lot of trolling in this thread (including some of my own, at this point I had succumb to popular believe that Marner would sign closer to Aho than Matthews. My crazy 'on the dot' ACGM, I provided the link for earlier, was dated before the 2019 Draft, last June) this thread of yours was from August 17th.</div></div>

All right I re-read that entire thread for the first time since it happened. We were four or five pages of this guy's lunacy at that point I was half trolling him by then. Half because I do think there is a kernel of truth in there.

While the peak Malkin years I would rate over JT, I do think JT is underappreciated for the years of work he did on Long Island with absolute trash for wingers. Additionally Malkin has been very hit-or miss in many of his seasons and was really only clearly better for a few years in total, while JT has been quietly good for the vast majority of that time. If we are counting their entire 'prime' then I'd say it is actually pretty close, but if we are only counting peak performance than Malkin takes it.
Forum: Armchair-GM29 jun à 23 h 57
Sujet: This is REALLY gonna piss some people off - Come join the scream fest
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>draft_em_sign_em_trade_em</b></div><div>I agree and know Aho doesn't get to play with a superstar on his line like Marner and Rantanen does, so clumping those 3 players is unfair. As for Marner's "off" season, oddly enough, blame Matthews, Marner and Matthews are not fitted as well for each other as Marner and J.T. Marner's bad play was because he was overtly focus on getting Matthews the puck, were J.T. was less selfish as a player. I know, that's my opinion and eye test, no analytics to prove it to be true, analytics have yet to predict the Cup winner. Reminds me of the movie Rainman. Pure genuis with numbers, Tom Cruise thought he could use him to beat the casino, but they failed. Also note the Rainman doesn't know the value of $100, remind you of anybody, lol.

Kapanen is a keeper in my opinion, easily top 6 forward if Marner or Nylander go down.

As for Lily, I doubt he has Top 4 NHL skill but I thought the same about Holl (and still think he is massively over rated). They're both 5-7 guys.

Oh...also looking up old posts, saw ones about you arguing that J.T. was better than Malkin, god help me, why ?</div></div>

At the time of that argument JT is better (although Malkin went an had himself a year while JT was just good this year). Career it would be Malkin tho.

It is like saying that Seguin is better than Jagr.
Right now? Absolutely. Over their career? no. If you read that entire thread we spent multiple posts explaining that (at least I think that is the thread you are referencing. Otherwise I don't know what you are talking about).
Forum: Armchair-GM29 jun à 22 h 51
Sujet: This is REALLY gonna piss some people off - Come join the scream fest
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>draft_em_sign_em_trade_em</b></div><div>My point exactly, you knew the "argument" with Kakko wasn't great but you still trolled him for over 7 pages because of the explanation I gave above. That's funny.</div></div>

While I wouldn't call that trolling, this is a fair point actually.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>draft_em_sign_em_trade_em</b></div><div>Of course I know and accepted this was a fishing for trolls post to begin with, you even named it "pissing people off". </div></div>

Not true. I do actually think the Leafs lose this trade, yet I would still make it. I just knew it wouldn't be popular - hence the title.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>draft_em_sign_em_trade_em</b></div><div>Your opinion of Lily and assessment of Hronek's value to the Wings are a little bias and off course, you must admit that, but I doubt you will.
</div></div>

Everyone has some bias and to say otherwise is to lie to yourself. To combat this my opinions are based of what I read, my eye test and analytics. Let me break down where I get my ideas from for you since this convo *seems* to be a somewhat honest one.
Liljegren looks like he will be a solid 2nd pairing DFD who can sling a pass judging from all I've read about him. Sources include <a href="https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">PPP</a> who have dedicated Marlies watchers and regularly do prospect updates, <a href="https://theathletic.com/1449623/2020/02/11/scott-wheelers-2020-nhl-prospect-pool-rankings/?article_source=search&amp;search_query=prospect%20pools%20ranking" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">The Athletic - Scott Wheeler and Corey Pronman</a> do tons of stuff in terms of that as well as just other internet reading as I've only live wathed maybe 15 games with Liljegren and there aren't any public metrics for the A and other junior leagues.

Hronek is based off more internet reading but also what analytics I can find on him. Often times I start by looking up 'report cards' for the player as they tend to give me a nice concise summary of them before finding more in depth stuff. More of what I read on them is posted by he analytics guys and I base my opinions on that. An example: Here you can see that while he was certainly one of the better D for the wings, he wasn't particularly special. People saying he is a 1RD or anything like that is based on the (lack of) talent around him rather than his actual play.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Considering how poor DET&#39;s results were, this isn&#39;t as bad as I would&#39;ve guessed. Nemeth was basically good, Hronek was fine, Cholowski was good, Green was somehow playing dullish and quiet...but Daley and Bowey just couldn&#39;t hack it at all. <a href="https://t.co/Mc5ibEIjc1">pic.twitter.com/Mc5ibEIjc1</a></p>&mdash; Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChartingHockey/status/1254404966049071104?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 26, 2020</a></blockquote>
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Kapanen I have actually watched and so can make the most informed opinions on. Between my viewing, the analytics and what I read on him I can form the best opinion I possibly could (and is generally why I tend to heavily favour takes on the Leafs as opposed to other teams). He really does have top-6 upside. I am not joking when I say that.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Smooth moves from Kapanen to get around Heiskanen but Faska gets in at the last moment <a href="https://t.co/Vb3Ynb92cr">pic.twitter.com/Vb3Ynb92cr</a></p>&mdash; Omar (@TicTacTOmar) <a href="https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1228114123466137607?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 14, 2020</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Kasperi Kapanen knocks down the puck, chases it down and goes over the glove on Hill to win it in OT <a href="https://t.co/TU1CxJ5nXm">pic.twitter.com/TU1CxJ5nXm</a></p>&mdash; Omar (@TicTacTOmar) <a href="https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1227423525226582016?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 12, 2020</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Kapanen goes in on him after <a href="https://t.co/uEifwsoajN">pic.twitter.com/uEifwsoajN</a></p>&mdash; Omar (@TicTacTOmar) <a href="https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1227414901943083010?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 12, 2020</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This was clean. Kapanen gets to the puck first while Clifford picks it up <a href="https://t.co/XS7wnmqlk8">pic.twitter.com/XS7wnmqlk8</a></p>&mdash; Omar (@TicTacTOmar) <a href="https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1226306251837104128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 9, 2020</a></blockquote>
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<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbuhWLuXkAAo7mU?format=jpg&amp;name=medium" alt="EbuhWLuXkAAo7mU?format=jpg&amp;name=medium">

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>draft_em_sign_em_trade_em</b></div><div>I can bring up one of your Marner comments, quoting him at under 9 million for 6 years, on July 25th.

Aho and Rantanen both scored at less than a point per game average this season. Meanwhile Marner scored at a 90 point rate and critics said he was having a bad year.

Your under 9 million evaluation was so bad.

Of course I'd wait for you to post Matthews made Marner great advance sheets to prove some point. Like you did when Marner played with J.T. and when you compared Marner to Nylander, suggesting Nylander was better.</div></div>

I made a final statement on Marner's contract right before he signed. My <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1389136">final word</a> for a 'fair' contract for him was 6@9.3aav. I fully expected him to get more, but overall that I what I thought was fair, and <strong>I stand by that</strong>. I do not judge a player by the points they put up, especially not on a team where he is playing with one of Mats or JT. I look at his individual impact offensively and make judgements based on that. There are so many aspects to the game that judging it by points just ends up missing the point completely and so I will never ever do something like that. If you want to disagree that is fine, but there is a reason why analytics are taking over. You say that this evaluation was bad but take one look around the rest of the hockey worlds reaction and it seems pretty on point. Marner is overpaid. If he were making my recc'd contract that is roughly market value for him and I don't think his season is held in nearly as much scrutiny as it has, but he went for the money and so we watch him closely.

A good reason why I don't like points as a marker is due to the fact it ignores so much of the game. Constantly this season Marner has looked out of it, bobbling pucks at key times, but most importantly to me he has been making <strong>TERRIBLE DECISIONS</strong> with what to do, and it has been costing this team offensively and defensively. It has on multiple occasions lost games for us this season.

So Ofc I would post some analytics, because you are wrong on Marner. He is worth close to what I pegged him at (6@9.3) and points alone is not enough to change that valuation. When you make 8 figures you need to be more than just points, and Mitch isn't that - or at least he wasn't last year.

I also wan't to address your final point. I never said Nylander was better. I said he was in lock step and that the difference wasn't so big as this site would have you believe. Furthermore I said that I wasn't convinced that Marner was head over heels better. I said that during Nylander's down season and quite frankly <strong>I fully stand by that assessment</strong>.
Nylander is more than points, so while Marner's play making is much better, Nylander has more aspects to his game and that puts them into a similar tier for me. I'd post some analytics but I know that you wouldn't care so I won't bother.

At the end of the day, this is what I hate about this site. Statements like:
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>draft_em_sign_em_trade_em</b></div><div>
Your under 9 million evaluation was so bad.</div></div>

And you cite just points from two other players. This isn't a good argument, and while better than some arguments (aka: Nuh-uh) it isn't much better because you try to boil everything down to one number that doesn't accurately reflect huge aspects of the game and ignores a lot of context. So no, you are wrong about Marner, at least I am more right and just because you refuse to accept analytics for whatever reason (usually ignorance but I don't want to presume) doesn't justify your opinion. Additionally you show your ignorance on Aho by doing something like this.
Forum: Armchair-GM29 jun à 13 h 28
Sujet: This is REALLY gonna piss some people off - Come join the scream fest
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KakkoForMauriceRichardAward</b></div><div>Thx for proving my point troll

And YOU, of all people, says that my talent evaluation is off? Wow got me there... oh wait in fact YOU are the one who claimed that Liljegren not being ready for the NHL is a TAKE when anyone with eyes can see that he needs one more AHL year. YOU claimed that I overrate Hronek when the guy (who has played one one of the worst teams in the league for his entire career until now) has to play against the other teams' best players and still managed to look above average. Thx for the «talent evaluation» comment, because you're the one who clearly has issues with that. Again, thx for proving my point, which has been since yesterday that Hronek is very underrated because he played for DET.


Also, «that's not the reason for the trade». Thx for contradicting yourself mate... you said that rebuilding is about moving players who don't fit into your SC window and you JUST confirmed that you still believe that Liljegren better suits DET than Hronek, which you haven't proven at all. So basically, even tho you claim that's not the reason for the trade, it still is because DET already has other mid 6 forwards for the now and the future (Rasmussen and Fabbri)... and getting one more, which isn't bad on its own, isn't worth AT ALL getting rid of the only d-man who should remain with DET long term, along with Seider.

So again, you're the clown here mate ans you've just proven it. Again btw. Thx a lot</div></div>

I find it amazing that you can somehow manage to either wilfully or accidentally mis-interpret anything to warp it to fit your own view. It really is impressive. You also seem to have very selective memory as to what was written, even though it is right there in the open to check. I think we are done here as there was no point continuing this conversation with someone who does that. Feel free to think you've made any good points or that you've won; Good day sir.
Forum: Armchair-GM29 jun à 13 h 16
Forum: Armchair-GM29 jun à 12 h 38
Sujet: This is REALLY gonna piss some people off - Come join the scream fest
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KakkoForMauriceRichardAward</b></div><div>LOL no self awareness so you claimed Liljegren is NHL ready (you said that it was must my opinion that he wasn’t which isn’t true), you claimed that Hronek really isn’t that good which isn’t true at all and a few Wings fans have come out saying he isn’t for sale(AKA it would take a pretty big overpayment to get him, so in this case at least remove the 3rd and add a 2nd going to DET(at least), you literally called for rearranging deck chairs when that’s literally the worst thing ever for a rebuilding team, you claimed that FA has had a better GSAx that AG over the pst 2 seasons(18-19, 19-20) which isn’t true...


Notice a pattern here??</div></div>

Yeah. That you don't have the first ****ing clue what you are talking about considering I am correct on all points I actually argued for. Some of the things you accuse me of arguing for in this post I never did, but hey feel free to think that I did so you can walk away thinking you've won