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Leafs 2023 2024 Season Discussion Part 3 - Winter Blues

10 janv. à 14 h 13
#826
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Modifié 10 janv. à 14 h 33
Quoting: Juice
In other exciting news....we've recalled Samsonov....still would've liked Hildeby to have snuck a game in but also undertand that Jones has been very solid and the Leafs need to keep up this momentum....hopefully the kid enjoyed his brief call-up.

I'm guessing they give him Sunday v Detroit? Or feed him to the Avs and give Jones the easier matchup?


This feels like the Manoah situation where its to sudden

Sammy was down for only a week and didnt play a game with the Marlies (had 3 including a b2b that week). Heck practiced yesterday with them and was mostly doing things alone.

I would have gave him some marlies games sent Hildeby down and called up Petruzelli


As idk if a week is enough time to mentally fix that man rn. It took Campbell 3 weeks when he was here. Yes he was hurt but most of it was for a mental reset

Anyways good luck to him is all I can say but if the Leafs play in front of him like they did Jones these past 4 games he has no more excuses. As before you could argue they also were not helping the situation. But they seem to have figured it out

As for when I would start him. Avs

Sammy does very well vs. Strong opponents besides TBL but thats a matchup to avoid

0.913 vs. FLA
0.950 vs. BOS
0.939 vs. VAN

Then hes got some nice wins vs. NSH and DET


As it seems other than TBL if Sammy plays a lottery team he does not do well this year. Now this can be from a multitude of factors (leafs besides these past 3 dont try vs. lottery) but yea it seems rn its the strong teams he does well against
10 janv. à 14 h 48
#827
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Modifié 10 janv. à 16 h 7
Surveying the room here on trade deadline acquisitions....

I'll state the obvious....we're still 2 months away and there's a lot that can happen between now and then as far as quality of play and injuries. I think we're soon going to find ourselves in a similar situation to last year where it will start to feel like we're locked in to our first round opponents - Florida. Things are still tight now but I'm getting that sense as we head into the back half.

I'm trying to look at this specifically from the lens of Treliving and Keefe...and not what us fans actually want or think should happen.

I don't think there should be much debate that...if we're going to make any move...that the blueline is a priority with bottom 6 defensive/checking forward and possible goaltending depth as other boxes to potentially check off.

Things I Think I Think:
1. Treliving will not be under the same type of pressure to make moves that Kyle may have had in the past. He's in year one. He doesn't need to prove his worth...and like most GM's...he's probably looking towards the offseason to start putting his larger plan into motion

2. The push to sign Nylander at this time in the season has some obvious meaning. It gives some cap clarity for next year and also takes any concept of looking to move him off the table. So he must have been looking at some deals for players with term or players he intends to re-sign if they're pending UFA's

3. Goaltending...it's way too early to know what he needs to do, if anything. When is Woll coming back and how does he look? Is Jones continuing to put up quality starts? Where is Sammy's game? I'd like to think that next season rocking with Woll + backup vet is the ideal way to maximize remaining cap dollars...so I don't see him going to get a goalie with term...and I think it would take 2 of our 3 current goalies to fall short of expectations to warrant picking up tending depth at the deadline. Sammy probably gets another 1-2 starts in the next couple weeks...but if he is still craptastic then he likely gets sacrificed with a sweetener to create cap flexibility at the deadline. I still think it wouldn't be too hard to include him in a trade as cap ballast given he's on an expiring deal.

4. The more I watch this D....the more I try and think what's going through Keefe's mind. The level of opponents takes a leap up these next few games....but Morgan is obviously locked in at 1LD and you have McCabe, Benoit and Gio all available and playing well. Brodie is his workhorse....I don't see him coming out of the lineup or Keefe wanting to move him at the deadline...and Liljegren has been very solid. I don't want to see his role diminished or for him to be traded and I'm just hoping Treliving sees him as a long term part of the blueline. Timmins, we know, won't see the ice if Keefe can help it....and he's happy to put McCabe on the right side.

So who actually comes out of the lineup if we add to the D? Benoit is probably first on the chopping block to head to the pressbox...but he's giving you everything you could want from a bottom pairing guy. GIo and Brodie are fading but I just don't believe Keefe would move off of either....and Lilly has always been left off playoff lineups to start series.

I guess my point is....are we better off just not making a deadline move on D...even if it seems obvious that we should? If the guys that Keefe will take playing time away from are the guys that we should keep in the lineup. Assuming we get similar play over the remainder of the season and no major injuries...and as unpopular as it would probably be for most fans...I think we keep our main trading assets and roll with what we have
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10 janv. à 14 h 54
#828
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Quoting: Leafsfan98
I mean you certainly can... Marner and Nylander both having more value... But wait and see how they do this year... go after a defence at TDL; preferably Hanifin but others work like Ferraro... and hope too see this team do what we all know they can do


I think you get a Hedman who's 33 years old and already not who he used to be by trading those guys.
10 janv. à 15 h 18
#829
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Modifié 10 janv. à 16 h 5
Quoting: Juice
Surveying the room here on trade deadline acquisitions....

I'll state the obvious....we're still 2 months away and there's a lot that can happen between now and then as far as quality of play and injuries. I think we're soon going to find ourselves in a similar situation to last year where it will start to feel like we're locked in to our first round opponents - Florida. Things are still tight now but I'm getting that sense as we head into the back half.

I'm trying to look at this specifically from the lens of Treliving and Keefe...and not what us fans actually want or think should happen.

I don't think there should be much debate that...if we're going to make any move...that the blueline is a priority with bottom 6 defensive/checking forward and possible goaltending depth as other boxes to potentially check off.

Things I Think I Think:
1. Treliving will not be under the same type of pressure to make moves that Kyle may have had in the past. He's in year one. He doesn't need to prove his worth...and like most GM's...he's probably looking towards the offseason to start putting his larger plan into motion

2. The push to sign Nylander at this time in the season has some obvious meaning. It gives some cap clarity for next year and also takes any concept of looking to move him off the table. So he must have been looking at some deals for players with term or players he intends to re-sign if they're pending UFA's

3. Goaltending...it's way too early to know what he needs to do, if anything. When is Woll coming back and how does he look? Is Jones continuing to put up quality starts? Where is Sammy's game? I'd like to think that next season rocking with Woll + backup vet is the ideal way to maximize remaining cap dollars...so I don't see him going to get a goalie with term...and I think it would take 2 of our 3 current goalies to fall short of expectations to warrant picking up tending depth at the deadline. Sammy probably gets another 1-2 starts in the next couple weeks...but if he is still craptastic then he likely gets sacrificed with a sweetener to create cap flexibility at the deadline. I still think is wouldn't be too hard to include him in a trade as cap ballast given he's on an expiring deal.

4. The more I watch this D....the more I try and think what's going through Keefe's mind. The level of opponents takes a leap up these next few games....but Morgan is obviously locked in at 1LD and you have McCabe, Benoit and Gio all available and playing well. Brodie is his workhorse....I don't see him coming out of the lineup or Keefe wanting to move him at the deadline...and Liljegren has been very solid. I don't want to see his role diminished or for him to be traded and I'm just hoping Treliving sees him as a long term part of the blueline. Timmins, we know, won't see the ice if Keefe can help it....and he's happy to put McCabe on the right side.

So who actually comes out of the lineup if we add to the D? Benoit is probably first on the chopping block to head to the pressbox...but he's giving you everything you could want from a bottom pairing guy. GIo and Brodie are fading but I just don't believe Keefe would move off of either....and Lilly has always been left off playoff lineups to start series.

I guess my point is....are we better off just not making a deadline move on D...even if it seems obvious that we should? If the guys that Keefe will take playing time away from are the guys that we should keep in the lineup. Assuming we get similar play over the remainder of the season and no major injuries...and as unpopular as it would probably be for most fans...I think we keep are main trading assets and roll with what we have


Idk about pressure. As to me its not with Brad but above

Shanny is due for another contract soon

He may want his GM to make some big moves to in a sense save his job. Like hey dont be to cheap but also dont go make a stupid move

As if they regress playoff wise the board may go so yea were not gonna bring you back bye.

They either getting Boston or Florida. And we know how those two teams play. Were gonna need a move to even stand a chance.

For the D and Keefe I think its pretty clear

Keefe's saying to Brad I need a top 4 RD

As hes using McCabe on his offside and having Benoit up there over Timmins.

Heck hes not doing McCabe-Liligren

This is what I see in terms of hole

Rielly-Brodie
McCabe-?
Gio-Liligren
Benoit

The thing I see rn if Reaves will go to LTIR giving them the space to keep Benoit up. And like DET they gonna carry 3 goalies. That might be the plan. As I dont think they want to lose Jones rn for nothing
10 janv. à 15 h 29
#830
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Quoting: RipNasty
I think you get a Hedman who's 33 years old and already not who he used to be by trading those guys.


Easily
10 janv. à 16 h 6
#831
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https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/maple-leafs-knies-leaves-practice-with-apparent-lower-body-injury/

Please, let this be true
10 janv. à 16 h 23
#832
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Quoting: Leafsfan98
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/maple-leafs-knies-leaves-practice-with-apparent-lower-body-injury/

Please, let this be true


charliehorse, maybe?

Trying to think of what would make him react like that coming off the ice and yet potentially be good to go for the next game.
10 janv. à 16 h 25
#833
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Quoting: Juice
charliehorse, maybe?

Trying to think of what would make him react like that coming off the ice and yet potentially be good to go for the next game.


I was thinking rolled ankle as I know firsthand how painful it is:
Quoting: Leafsfan98
Saw the play, looks like he rolled he is ankle... Hoping it doesn't end up as a fractured one, but it looks like an ankle injury... Hoping for low sprain or rolled but who knows

BTW, the play itself was just unlucky as he slipped on McMann's stick with his right ankle and rolled his left one but IDK as I'm no doctor
10 janv. à 16 h 41
#834
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Quoting: Leafsfan98
Easily


That's a bad trade. Trading an in his prime star for a leaving his prime star is a great way to ruin your team.
10 janv. à 16 h 47
#835
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Quoting: RipNasty
That's a bad trade. Trading an in his prime star for a leaving his prime star is a great way to ruin your team.


Odds are, a trade like that would be Hedman++ or Marner
10 janv. à 17 h 51
#836
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Quoting: Leafsfan98
Odds are, a trade like that would be Hedman++ or Marner


Bad trade
10 janv. à 17 h 58
#837
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If the Leafs find themselves doing business with the Flames, it'd be really nice to sneak Martin Pospisil into a deal. Think he'd be a great add.
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10 janv. à 19 h 24
#838
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Modifié 10 janv. à 20 h 18
Been thinking hard and I got 3 TDL targets


1. Isac Lundeström: I like this kid I think something is there and he would be a nice 2-way 3c to build upon for the future if we move on from Domi.

2. Rafaël Harvey-Pinard: This guy impressed me last year and the compete lvl was there in MTL. Would love to see him in the bottom 6

3. Adam Larsson: He may not be available but if he is this is the guy to get. Cheaper than Tanev, has a year left, and is a solid defensive guy

Like just picture

Knies-Matthews-Marner
Bertuzzi-JT-Nylander
Rafaël Harvey-Pinard-Domi-Jarnkrok
Lunderstrom-Kampf-Holmberg/Gregor/McMann

Rielly-Brodie
McCabe-Larsson
Gio-Liligren
Benoit
10 janv. à 21 h 55
#839
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Modifié 10 janv. à 22 h 1
Was reading some tweets and came across one by Papetti and it surprised me

https://twitter.com/KPapetti/status/1745265185022001634


The issue is a bit downgraded cause hes league min but at the same time that aint good. Kind of funny how eye test and stats once again raising and lowering a guy lul

But yea as mentioned thats why its good to do rotation as guys like that can be put in and taken out of the lineup


Anyways a possible solution and yes its risky cause he may be viewed as a distraction and Toronto media could pounce but maybe if its not crazy u get Perry. If not hey keep rolling out Holmberg he scored a crazy goal down there.
11 janv. à 8 h 16
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Quoting: aadoyle
Was reading some tweets and came across one by Papetti and it surprised me

https://twitter.com/KPapetti/status/1745265185022001634


The issue is a bit downgraded cause hes league min but at the same time that aint good. Kind of funny how eye test and stats once again raising and lowering a guy lul

But yea as mentioned thats why its good to do rotation as guys like that can be put in and taken out of the lineup


Anyways a possible solution and yes its risky cause he may be viewed as a distraction and Toronto media could pounce but maybe if its not crazy u get Perry. If not hey keep rolling out Holmberg he scored a crazy goal down there.


I think Perry could fit in like a glove...

But Gregor being there was for his abysmal start to the year
11 janv. à 11 h 57
#841
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Quoting: Leafsfan98
I think Perry could fit in like a glove...

But Gregor being there was for his abysmal start to the year


He has been abysmal since Reaves went out. Not much has changed other than he skates fast
11 janv. à 13 h 46
#842
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My eyeball test...for whatever that's worth...at least over the last 4ish games....

I've seen Gregor make at least one speedy rush down the wing to create a scoring opportunity....but largely unnoticeable prior to that. For a 4th line winger on a minimum contract...I am generally indifferent if he's in there or not...any bottom 6 forward targeted at the TDL should focus on PK, IMO
11 janv. à 14 h 6
#843
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Quoting: Juice
My eyeball test...for whatever that's worth...at least over the last 4ish games....

I've seen Gregor make at least one speedy rush down the wing to create a scoring opportunity....but largely unnoticeable prior to that. For a 4th line winger on a minimum contract...I am generally indifferent if he's in there or not...any bottom 6 forward targeted at the TDL should focus on PK, IMO


Gregor to me is the classic argument of Eye test vs. Analytics

To me he is a nice 4th liner but if what Papetti is saying is true we should maybe consider rotating rather than have him as a permeant fixture. As there is nothing wrong with options

Holmberg-Kampf-McMann did look nice and Holmberg even scored a holy cow goal. Heck if we sign Perry thats also an option

But yea I think rotation aint a bad thing. Some games you use Holmberg, others McMann, Gregor, heck explore other guys to like Steeves.

Cause some matchups you need speed, others skill, and some dexterity
11 janv. à 14 h 25
#844
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Quoting: MatthewsFan
He has been abysmal since Reaves went out. Not much has changed other than he skates fast


Disagree TBH... But whatever
11 janv. à 15 h 38
#845
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Quoting: Leafsfan98
Disagree TBH... But whatever


In general there are stats showing hes not been good like what Papetti highlighted but from the eye test hes just a normal 4th liner

I see both sides to the argument

Would not hurt to find an upgrade at the TDL if things dont improve or try to get guys in FA

Bailey and Perry are available rn
11 janv. à 16 h 54
#846
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So was doing the math if Marner signs at the same % as Willy this offseason when caps 87.7m hes making 12.07m

If he signs for Matthew old contract percentage 14.64% hes gonna get 12.84m (this is what I think is gonna happen)

Now im not doing Matthews new % as there no way Marner = 13.9m lul

So yea expect 8 years somewhere between 12m and 12.84m with 1% chance of 13m x 8 years


So yea if its done this summer we got

11.5m Willy
12.84 Marner
13.25m Matthews

or 36.69m between 3 players by the time caps 92.1m

The question comes JT but I feel hes either 5.5m x 2 years or gone or retired
11 janv. à 18 h 33
#847
McMann Season
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Just seeing rumours on Robo - Jenner trade w CBJ. Anyone have any news on it?
11 janv. à 18 h 35
#848
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Where did this report come out that TOR and CBJ are discussing a deal whereby Jenner + a Dman is coming to Toronto in a deal that would involve Robertson and draft compensation

Basically deal would be big

As idk this to me seems a bit sus as if this was gonna be a thing it would be all over TSN and SN
11 janv. à 18 h 36
#849
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Quoting: CameronSquires
Just seeing rumours on Robo - Jenner trade w CBJ. Anyone have any news on it?


I just asked the same thing lul

Like where did this come from
11 janv. à 18 h 41
#850
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Quoting: CameronSquires
Just seeing rumours on Robo - Jenner trade w CBJ. Anyone have any news on it?


Quoting: aadoyle
Where did this report come out that TOR and CBJ are discussing a deal whereby Jenner + a Dman is coming to Toronto in a deal that would involve Robertson and draft compensation

Basically deal would be big

As idk this to me seems a bit sus as if this was gonna be a thing it would be all over TSN and SN


Im not certain, but pretty sure Kypreos is the original disseminator of this news (aka this is a completely false rumor)
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