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Leafs 2023 2024 Season Discussion Part 3 - Winter Blues

8 janv. à 2 h 27
#651
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Modifié 8 janv. à 3 h 23
Quoting: oneX
I've been busy with real life the last few weeks so when I actually found the time to read some of what has been said in this thread, only thing I can think of is when Matthewsfan and I were in the minority on Keefe not being the coach to elevate this team to a finals appearance after the Montreal series. I guess people are finally starting to see more flaws in Keefe.

As for the Nylander extension, the player aside, it's incredible that this management has not been able to get the 3 forwards (Matthews, Marner and Nylander) to sign a team friendly deal.

In the cap ERA it seems very important to get someone from the core group to sign a deal that really emboldens the team to really fill out the roster.

I don't know how many of you are tired of years of being top heavy as far as this roster goes but.... 11.5? Yeah don't see that changing too much.

The roster needs balance but I'm not sure you get balance with Nylander at 11.5 and with Marner next...what's his number going to really be? 12.8? Yeesh!


Matthews technically did take a discount as he could have easily demanded league max. For him and considering he's a top 3 center in the NHL and on pace for 70 goals 13.25m is fine as he is up there as the best rn

Willy is a different manner. Guy should not be making more than Pastranak whose better. Marner I'm waiting as who knows maybe his next deals the exact same as Willy 11.5 which isn't a crazy raise for him

Basically for a guy like Matthews u pay that man. Willy and Marner yea is not the same lvl of need to keep as building around centers is vital over wings
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8 janv. à 7 h 52
#652
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Quoting: RipNasty
Do you watch hockey? Are you sure you are watching this season? Had Treliving just got the job done before the season even at 10, would anyone be upset? Because this season he absolutely looks like an 11 million dollar player.


You're right, nobody would bc he's a 9 million dollar player getting paid that with the cap going up...

He isn't an 11 million dollar player, however
8 janv. à 8 h 37
#653
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Quoting: Leafsfan98
You're right, nobody would bc he's a 9 million dollar player getting paid that with the cap going up...

He isn't an 11 million dollar player, however


You aren't watch this season.
8 janv. à 8 h 55
#654
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Quoting: RipNasty
You aren't watch this season.


Yes, I am... He's not a David Pastrnak... And he's sure as heck not close to him either
8 janv. à 9 h 4
#655
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Quoting: Leafsfan98
Yes, I am... He's not a David Pastrnak... And he's sure as heck not close to him either


Just casually outscoring him is all. Dominating anyone he goes against. Just casually.
8 janv. à 9 h 31
#656
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Quoting: RipNasty
Just casually outscoring him is all. Dominating anyone he goes against. Just casually.


And casually playing with Auston Matthews on Matthews' team...

Because we all know that's what Pastrnak has

And, no, Nylander isn't dominating... He needs 2nd line comp to get his points... Whereas a guy worth that kind of money, Matthews, dominated 1rst line comp
8 janv. à 9 h 38
#657
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Quoting: Leafsfan98
And casually playing with Auston Matthews on Matthews' team...

Because we all know that's what Pastrnak has

And, no, Nylander isn't dominating... He needs 2nd line comp to get his points... Whereas a guy worth that kind of money, Matthews, dominated 1rst line comp


And out playing Matthews and anchoring the 2nd line which really is another elite 1st line. You clearly have a problem with Nylander and will not see anything but what you want to see. Because a blind person can see how good he is this year.
8 janv. à 9 h 42
#658
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Quoting: RipNasty
And out playing Matthews and anchoring the 2nd line which really is another elite 1st line. You clearly have a problem with Nylander and will not see anything but what you want to see. Because a blind person can see how good he is this year.


Nylander isn't outplaying Matthews this year... This year, Matthews literally has no weakness... Whereas Nylander plays on the 2nd line and getting 2nd line competition...

He's not an 11 million dollar player... And we aren't even exploring Nylander's defensive issues...

Matthews is a player you overpay... guys like Nylander and Marner aren't...
8 janv. à 9 h 45
#659
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I really think a lot of people on here are getting trapped by the fact that the cap really hasn't gone up much the last 4-5 years.

How is it we can have the conversation and accept that it's cap% not cap$ that is used for comparisons and then get on here and say Willy isn't worth Pastnrnak money?

I don't think Nylander is an $11m player at an 83.5m salary cap and in a world where the cap hasn't jumped much for years. At $87.7 and climbing? It's a completely different story.

And there's just as many examples throughout professional sports of players in contract years or who bet on themselves and fail as there are players who have a strong contract year and don't quite play to the same level again.

IMO it's a lazy narrative to simply say that Nylander is only playing this well because it's a contract year and he'll immediately revert to the worst version of himself as soon as he's signed...there's also a multitude of factors at play....sometimes after signing a big $ contract players feel they have to try harder and end up playing worse. Sometimes the safety and security of knowing your future allows you to relax and play better. And yes, sometimes players step it up for their big payday and then gear down once it's in the bag.

Sorry...just a pet peeve of mine when people think they can jump into the minds of the players/coaches/GM's and claim to know what they're thinking or what motivates them.

Between what guys have reported and what we've seen from interviews...Nylander appears to be a very laid back and chill guy off the ice. His career so far has be one large upward trend. I like to hope that means the best is yet to come
8 janv. à 9 h 54
#660
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So so so so happy that Nylander will be a Leaf for another 8 years. The cap hit will be tough to work around next season, but JT is off the books the year after and the cap is rising. Would've been nice to see him sign a comparable deal, but I'm glad to see Willy get paid. I don't think 11.5 is as big of a deal as people seem to think
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8 janv. à 10 h 6
#661
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at least he went for 8 years.
8 janv. à 10 h 7
#662
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Quoting: mondo
at least he went for 8 years.


That's actually a negative for us. 5-6 would have been ideal
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8 janv. à 10 h 8
#663
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Quoting: Juice
That's actually a negative for us. 5-6 would have been ideal


i don't think he ages poorly, his playstyle isn't physical.
8 janv. à 10 h 12
#664
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Quoting: mondo
i don't think he ages poorly, his playstyle isn't physical.


That's fine...but can't expect him to play at the same level at age 34-36 as he will through ages 28-33. Meaning, if his contract ended when he was 33...I don't think he'd get another $11.5m to sign a 3yr extension.

I get it...it's the cost of doing business....I just don't frame an 8yr term as a "win" for the leafs. It's most definitely a win for Nylander
8 janv. à 10 h 55
#665
McMann Season
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Quoting: Juice
That's fine...but can't expect him to play at the same level at age 34-36 as he will through ages 28-33. Meaning, if his contract ended when he was 33...I don't think he'd get another $11.5m to sign a 3yr extension.

I get it...it's the cost of doing business....I just don't frame an 8yr term as a "win" for the leafs. It's most definitely a win for Nylander


Once the cap goes up every season, by the end of the contract it will be very small percentage, I don’t think it’s nearly bad as you think
8 janv. à 11 h 0
#666
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Quoting: CameronSquires
Once the cap goes up every season, by the end of the contract it will be very small percentage, I don’t think it’s nearly bad as you think


I you read this thread...I've made that same point. But that's not what we're discussing...the point was whether 8yrs is more beneficial to the player or the team....in this case...it's the player.

That's completely different from discussing "how bad it will be"
8 janv. à 11 h 11
#667
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I get Leafs fans are optimistic about the Nylander contract, but think about it this way:

- You say we can't compare it to the Pastrnak money with %, we very much can as last year, we also thought the cap was going to go up

- This will be our 4rth contract over 10 mill and near 11 mill or more; Matthews (13.25), Marner (10.9), JT (11), Nylander (11.5) with Rielly (7.5)

- However, we should have roughly 22.5 million dollars in cap space if the cap does go up to 87.7 million

- The following are unsigned next year: Bert (UFA; 5.5 million), Domi (UFA; 3 million), Brodie (UFA; 5 million), Samsonov (UFA; 3.5 million), Lilly (RFA; 1.4 million), Gregor (RFA; 775K), McMann (UFA; 775K), Benoit (RFA; 775K), Robertson (RFA; 796K), Gio (UFA; 800K), Lagesson (UFA; 775K)

Take this with what you want but the reality is; 1 playoff series over a PPG is no longer acceptable and the new expectation will be 100+ points every year with 40+ being goals
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8 janv. à 11 h 22
#668
McMann Season
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Quoting: Juice
I you read this thread...I've made that same point. But that's not what we're discussing...the point was whether 8yrs is more beneficial to the player or the team....in this case...it's the player.

That's completely different from discussing "how bad it will be"


Ohhh my apologies, I briefly skimmed it as there were a lot of long posts I’m not gonna lie. Fair enough
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8 janv. à 11 h 46
#669
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It’s a bad contract. There’s no way around that
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8 janv. à 11 h 49
#670
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Quoting: Saskleaf
It’s a bad contract. There’s no way around that


I disagree. Here is what I have written for the actual contract thread:



First of all, Nylander is worth 11 mil. I've been saying this for a long time now. If you don't think so - you're simply wrong

Second, he signed at a similar cap% as comparable wingers at the time like Benn, Stone, and Perry. Don't let the raw number fool you this isnt out of the blue.

Third and most importantly, Trev completely ****ed this negotiation up. If they were scared Nylander might walk - the time to "cave in" was in the summer. As it stands Nylander is at peak value and there is no reason to cave now 30 some odd games after refusing to go above 9mil. They should have waited out the year and let Reinhart get a comparable deal or let Willie cool off. Even if he didn't they could always just pay him this in June no problem. No one in the league can match 92 million dollars!

There was no risk!

What a horrible GM Trev has turned out to be. Worst fears confirmed about him

Fourth, I am very exited to have Willie be a life long leaf. Amazing player who has the perfect mentality for the market. Ideal Leaf and for that reason its still a good deal even with Trev being a panicky idiot.

I expect CF to vote it down. They also voted down both Matthews deals so that should tell you how little you should value that

Of course there are the usual worries about deals like this aging but I don't see any reason to suggest the risk is any more than any other comparable star so whatever. Would have liked us to get this down to 5 or 6 years given the aav, but I'll live with it.

GDVC7IAWgAI_jSc?format=jpg&name=small

I figure he will drop down to somewhere around a point per game to a 100 point pace for the next few years, and that's fine for what he will cost
8 janv. à 11 h 55
#671
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Quoting: Juice
I really think a lot of people on here are getting trapped by the fact that the cap really hasn't gone up much the last 4-5 years.

How is it we can have the conversation and accept that it's cap% not cap$ that is used for comparisons and then get on here and say Willy isn't worth Pastnrnak money?

I don't think Nylander is an $11m player at an 83.5m salary cap and in a world where the cap hasn't jumped much for years. At $87.7 and climbing? It's a completely different story.

And there's just as many examples throughout professional sports of players in contract years or who bet on themselves and fail as there are players who have a strong contract year and don't quite play to the same level again.

IMO it's a lazy narrative to simply say that Nylander is only playing this well because it's a contract year and he'll immediately revert to the worst version of himself as soon as he's signed...there's also a multitude of factors at play....sometimes after signing a big $ contract players feel they have to try harder and end up playing worse. Sometimes the safety and security of knowing your future allows you to relax and play better. And yes, sometimes players step it up for their big payday and then gear down once it's in the bag.

Sorry...just a pet peeve of mine when people think they can jump into the minds of the players/coaches/GM's and claim to know what they're thinking or what motivates them.

Between what guys have reported and what we've seen from interviews...Nylander appears to be a very laid back and chill guy off the ice. His career so far has be one large upward trend. I like to hope that means the best is yet to come


The pushback I would have for that is if we're being logical, in this case the percentage of the cap on the day each player signs their name is not nearly as important as the fact that they will be making the same percentage of the cap for the entire overlap of those contracts - which in this case is 7 years. Like we knew when Pasta signed that we were going to be turning a corner with the cap in the near future. Less than 12 months between signing dates and a cap increase that was projected, the % thing really starts to lose its validity, imo.
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8 janv. à 11 h 55
#672
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Quoting: Saskleaf
It’s a bad contract. There’s no way around that


Is Panarin a bad contract?

Similar career trajectory...signed after the 2019 after his first 90+ point season....and for 14.29% of the cap at the time. Or do we just look at him and his contract as 'ok' because NYR is more balanced in net and on D?
8 janv. à 11 h 59
#673
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Quoting: Random2152
I disagree. Here is what I have written for the actual contract thread:



First of all, Nylander is worth 11 mil. I've been saying this for a long time now. If you don't think so - you're simply wrong

Second, he signed at a similar cap% as comparable wingers at the time like Benn, Stone, and Perry. Don't let the raw number fool you this isnt out of the blue.

Third and most importantly, Trev completely ****ed this negotiation up. If they were scared Nylander might walk - the time to "cave in" was in the summer. As it stands Nylander is at peak value and there is no reason to cave now 30 some odd games after refusing to go above 9mil. They should have waited out the year and let Reinhart get a comparable deal or let Willie cool off. Even if he didn't they could always just pay him this in June no problem. No one in the league can match 92 million dollars!

There was no risk!

What a horrible GM Trev has turned out to be. Worst fears confirmed about him

Fourth, I am very exited to have Willie be a life long leaf. Amazing player who has the perfect mentality for the market. Ideal Leaf and for that reason its still a good deal even with Trev being a panicky idiot.

I expect CF to vote it down. They also voted down both Matthews deals so that should tell you how little you should value that

Of course there are the usual worries about deals like this aging but I don't see any reason to suggest the risk is any more than any other comparable star so whatever. Would have liked us to get this down to 5 or 6 years given the aav, but I'll live with it.

GDVC7IAWgAI_jSc?format=jpg&name=small

I figure he will drop down to somewhere around a point per game to a 100 point pace for the next few years, and that's fine for what he will cost


So...I'm ok with this deal...won't complain about it....but this group has shown you should get them signed asap before they have another great season and push the number upwards. Thank god they got Matthews done because if he's 60-70 goals this year I'm sure that number goes up.

I don't blame Treliving....at least not solely. No chance he was the sole decision maker having just come on to the team. And there was a risk for sure....the closer a player gets to UFA the more it makes sense for him to test the market...so ya...you run the risk of him going somewhere else if you really wanted to keep the player
8 janv. à 12 h 1
#674
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Quoting: Juice
So...I'm ok with this deal...won't complain about it....but this group has shown you should get them signed asap before they have another great season and push the number upwards. Thank god they got Matthews done because if he's 60-70 goals this year I'm sure that number goes up.

I don't blame Treliving....at least not solely. No chance he was the sole decision maker having just come on to the team. And there was a risk for sure....the closer a player gets to UFA the more it makes sense for him to test the market...so ya...you run the risk of him going somewhere else if you really wanted to keep the player


Then 'cave' in the summer. Would have only been 10. If they really feared that - the answer was right there. Brutal mismanagement
8 janv. à 12 h 6
#675
Ovchinnikov 137
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Quoting: NorthernLeafsFan05
So so so so happy that Nylander will be a Leaf for another 8 years. The cap hit will be tough to work around next season, but JT is off the books the year after and the cap is rising. Would've been nice to see him sign a comparable deal, but I'm glad to see Willy get paid. I don't think 11.5 is as big of a deal as people seem to think


I wish the term was 6, especially how the contract is structured
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