They hope would be that he becomes mcdavid level good and we win 5 cups. Imo / most realistically he gives us 3-4really good years 1/2 bad years and goes away for the last year or 2 of his deal.
I think your most realistically is not all that likely looking at the comps I did above. I'd guess he declines somewhere between 29-31. So the year before the contract or the first two years of it.
Looking at his box cars I really thought he had scored more. His value is obviously significantly increased by being a physical beast who dominates opposition. Look at nyr basically changing their makeup because of his abuse. But I am genuinely surprised that:
He has been below 15 goals as often as above 20 goals the last 6 years (yes related to injuries/suspensions but my concern is he can't stay on the ice) but more he's only cracked 50 points once and 40 pts twice.
Physicality does not equal success. The most physical teams last year were, in order, Pittsburgh, Ottawa, Nashville, Philadelphia, New York Islanders and Arizona. Vegas was 14th.
They were 12th of the 16 playoff teams for hits/60 in the postseason.
I have no idea what Vegas' Cup win has to do with Tom Wilson. I don't see a connection.
Vegas has a big strong team. Wilson plays a rough rugged game. The league is starting to value toughness again. That's what I'm driving at.
By the time the deal expires, 6.5 million will be a standard 3rd liner contract.
Honestly, I would be more concerned that it is effectively buyout proof for the team holding it the last few seasons.
Will be fine throughout Ovi's competition window assuming Wilson doesn't completely fall off a cliff. After that? Might be a bit scuffed as the kids say.
In what world Wilson is a 3rd liner in year 2026 for instance? He is max an okay 4th liner then. So it is a bad deal. And what competition window? IS it that important to a team that a player makes most goal in NHL history? This team is barely a Playoff team next year
I suspect the team knows this contract is not likely to age well, but they went for it anyway for a few reasons:
1) I’m not sure they’re on a path to contend for another cup before Ovechkin retires, but if that’s their goal, they need Wilson and would give him whatever it took to keep him from going to free agency, where he would be in high demand barring some disaster between now and then.
2) After Ovechkin retires, they’ll be starting a long rebuild, so they don’t care if they’re saddled with a bad contract then. Cap space in the early years of the contract is more important, so better to go long term with a lower AAV than what it would cost to sign him short term.
3) His recent injury history doesn’t concern them too much, because if things get worse he could qualify for LTIR, which would free them from this bad contract.
The thing I think they’re likely to regret most is the big signing bonuses in the last two years, which effectively eliminate the possibility of a buyout. This makes me think the team just rolled over and gave him whatever he asked for. It also tells me that even Wilson doesn’t think he’ll be worth anywhere near what they’ll be paying him by then. Otherwise he could potentially benefit from a buyout by signing another contract somewhere else that would pay him more than what he lost from the buyout.
They could have waited to next year and even then he would have gotten the same, max. More likely a lot less because his coming back after an injury... Ovie is less good than last season so that wont help him, the team is worse than last year also... So why to this deal now? Even if the cap goes upp this is a way too much money
Salary cap is only going up every year boss. 6 mill now is going to be the new 5 mill in a year or two. (If you don't understand cap space maybe this wont make sense in your head)
Wilsons value just went through the roof with this signing. Yes, I know he may only be a 45 point player but any playoff contender would love to have this guy in the lineup. Look what Jeannot got traded for and times that by 5 for Willy Boy if CAPS do decide to move him.
Salary cap is only going up every year boss. 6 mill now is going to be the new 5 mill in a year or two. (If you don't understand cap space maybe this wont make sense in your head)
Wilsons value just went through the roof with this signing. Yes, I know he may only be a 45 point player but any playoff contender would love to have this guy in the lineup. Look what Jeannot got traded for and times that by 5 for Willy Boy if CAPS do decide to move him.
of course i understand cap is going up. i judt doubt that wilson is gonna be that productive 2-3 years down the road. wont be the first time something like that happens.
if you think team enjoy having that sort of wingers for that long when they are that old maybe there is something you dont understand. value went way way down. the thing is when caps are gonna be looking to move him he wont have that much value, and its gonna be because his production went down. its nore likely in my opinion Wilson is either bought out in 4 years or on LTIR tha playing on the caps.
jeannot is a bad exemple. he had this value cause he was a rfa making 800k on 1 year deal.
of course i understand cap is going up. i judt doubt that wilson is gonna be that productive 2-3 years down the road. wont be the first time something like that happens.
if you think team enjoy having that sort of wingers for that long when they are that old maybe there is something you dont understand. value went way way down. the thing is when caps are gonna be looking to move him he wont have that much value, and its gonna be because his production went down. its nore likely in my opinion Wilson is either bought out in 4 years or on LTIR tha playing on the caps.
jeannot is a bad exemple. he had this value cause he was a rfa making 800k on 1 year deal.
Should of looked and seen you were a habs fan earlier.. this conversation will not go anywhere lol. Goodluck this year.
vmark a aimé ceci.
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