Please use comps on your goalie trades

RFA	ANS	CAP HIT
Meier, Timo	8	8 000 000 $
Sharangovich, Yegor	1	2 000 000 $
McLeod, Michael	4	1 500 000 $
Boqvist, Jesper	2	1 000 000 $
Bastian, Nathan	2	1 000 000 $
Bahl, Kevin	2	1 000 000 $
Walsh, Reilly	1	775 000 $

TAILLE DE LA FORMATION	PLAFOND SALARIAL	CAP HIT	EXCÉDENTS	BONIS	ESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
23	83 500 000 $	74 887 500 $	422 500 $	2 232 500 $	8 612 500 $

Ailier gauche	Centre	Ailier droit
Meier, Timo 8 000 000 $8 000 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 8	Hischier, Nico 7 250 000 $7 250 000 $ C UFA - 4	Bratt, Jesper 7 875 000 $7 875 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 8
Holtz, Alexander 894 167 $894 167 $ (850 000 $$850K) AD, AG RFA - 2	Hughes, Jack 8 000 000 $8 000 000 $ C UFA - 7	Mercer, Dawson 894 167 $894 167 $ (400 000 $$400K) AD, C RFA - 1
Sharangovich, Yegor 2 000 000 $2 000 000 $ C, AG, AD UFA - 2	Boqvist, Jesper 1 000 000 $1 000 000 $ C, AG RFA - 1	Palat, Ondrej 6 000 000 $6 000 000 $ AG, AD NMC UFA - 4
Foote, Nolan 863 333 $863 333 $ AG RFA - 1	McLeod, Michael 1 500 000 $1 500 000 $ C RFA - 1	Bastian, Nathan 1 000 000 $1 000 000 $ AD UFA - 2

Défenseur gaucher	Défenseur droitier	Gardien de but
Siegenthaler, Jonas 3 400 000 $3 400 000 $ DG UFA - 5	Hamilton, Dougie 9 000 000 $9 000 000 $ DD NMC UFA - 5	Vanecek, Vitek 3 400 000 $3 400 000 $ G UFA - 2
Hughes, Luke 925 000 $925 000 $ (925 000 $$925K) DG/DD RFA - 2	Marino, John 4 400 000 $4 400 000 $ DD UFA - 4	Schmid, Akira 850 833 $850 833 $ (57 500 $$58K) G RFA - 1
Bahl, Kevin 1 000 000 $1 000 000 $ DG RFA - 2	Walsh, Reilly 775 000 $775 000 $ DD UFA - 1

22 juin 2023 à 11 h 8

#1

"Go sell ice cream!"

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Schneider as mentioned in 2014 is the highest value return in a goalie trade in the modern era. A 9th overall that turned into Horvat. Schneider played well for Jersey too so I'd call it a win/win.

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22 juin 2023 à 11 h 11

#2

villenash

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Saros is significantly better, more seasoned, more recognized by the league than Schneider was when he was traded.

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22 juin 2023 à 11 h 18

#3

GMBL

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Modifié 22 juin 2023 à 11 h 24

Quoting: villenash

Saros is significantly better, more seasoned, more recognized by the league than Schneider was when he was traded.

Sure (although Schneider was probably ranked similar among the top 10 goalies), but that doesn't mean he's getting more, and if he does get more it won't be a whole lot.

Take the example presented:

Nemec+Schmid+Mercer

Nemec (taken 2 OV) was expected to be taken in the top 5 or 6, so how would they get Schmid (a very good goalie prospect) and Mercer (a good young player) on top?

There's already a huge difference between 5th/6th OV (NJ considers him as a 2nd in negotations) vs 9th.

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22 juin 2023 à 11 h 26

#4

CW_73

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To offersheet Swayman at a value Boston wouldn't match, the comp would be a 1st and 3rd so it stands to reason that this is the starting price in a trade. And that's if they even move him over Ullmark

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22 juin 2023 à 11 h 27

#5

palhal

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Just to add....there plenty of good UFA goalies available this summer.....Anderson, Varlomov, Hill, Rantaa and some lesser ones like Jarry. Plus Swayman and Samsonov could be had with an offer sheet.
So to think teams are giving up a lot to acquire Hellebucyk or M NTC Ullmark to me is just fantasy.

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22 juin 2023 à 11 h 32

#6

villenash

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Quoting: GMBL

Sure (although Schneider was probably ranked similar among the top 10 goalies), but that doesn't mean he's getting more, and if he does get more it won't be a whole lot.

Take the example presented:

Nemec+Schmid+Mercer

Nemec (taken 2 OV) was expected to be taken in the top 5 or 6, so how would they get Schmid (a very good goalie prospect) and Mercer (a good young player) on top?

There's already a huge difference between 5th/6th OV (NJ considers him as a 2nd in negotations) vs 9th.

Schneider was not considered as good as Saros is right now when he was traded to NJD. Schneider had not even hit 100 regular season games yet and had never been a starter in the NHL. Saros has nearly 300 games already, has been nominated for the Vezina, is likely top 5 in voting this year, an all-star, and has been a consistent, elite starting goaltender. They are just not comparable.

Having said that, I don’t see NJD trading Nemec. Maybe NSH could maybe pry out Mercer, but I’m not convinced. Most likely a deal revolves around Vanecek, Holtz, and picks. But I’m not in love with that deal if I’m Trotz. Saros doesn’t need to be dealt, and Trotz is looking for a home run if he is. So unless that’s the case, I see Saros staying with NSH to start the season.

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22 juin 2023 à 11 h 38

#7

F50marco

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Well there are a couple factors that change a lot of things in the potential deal. TDL deal or off season with a full year left on the contract? Retention or no retention? Goalie market. Team desperation. etc etc.

I agree the CF AGM offers are over reaching but not all prior trade comps are perfect assumptions either. I think goalie trades are probably the most unpredictable also. The least easy to predict with trade comps.

Ultimately, I think Hellebucyk IMO is one of the best goalies available for trade in his prime in a long time. He and Suros could be future comp setters IMO. So yeah some of those trade proposals are farfetched but I think the return on those two could be higher than some of the trade comps suggest they should be also.

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22 juin 2023 à 11 h 42

#8

herzausstein

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Quoting: palhal

Just to add....there plenty of good UFA goalies available this summer.....Anderson, Varlomov, Hill, Rantaa and some lesser ones like Jarry. Plus Swayman and Samsonov could be had with an offer sheet.
So to think teams are giving up a lot to acquire Hellebucyk or M NTC Ullmark to me is just fantasy.

Varlamov is constantly injured and 35

Andersen is coming off a poor regular season and 33

Hill is a real dice roll having never played more than 27 regular season games in a single season

Rantaa is 34 and hasnt carried a starters load in 5 seasons.

Jarry has been hit or miss but at age 28 he's atleast young enough to where you would be willing to give it a shot. Hes also been a starter for a while just inconsistent from year to year and abysmal playoff stats.

Offersheets almost never happen but maybe this is the year.....

There are lots of bandaid options and questionable options out there. The retirement home: varlamov, rantaa, andersen. The dice rolls: hill, swayman, samsanov. The battle tested but inconsistent: jarry. The battle tested and consistent: saros, helly, ullmark.

Vegas showed with a stellar defense, you can get by with a question mark in goal. Will be interesting to see what teams do.

22 juin 2023 à 11 h 43

#9

Goorts

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One comparable that maybe you are overlooking is in 2016, Toronto got Freddy Anderson from the Ducks for a 1st and 2nd. That was when he was in a 1A / 1B situation with Gibson. And Andersen's numbers in those years weren't bad at all considering it was almost 8yrs ago. Just food for thought.

22 juin 2023 à 11 h 50

#10

gmgb

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Quoting: palhal

Just to add....there plenty of good UFA goalies available this summer.....Anderson, Varlomov, Hill, Rantaa and some lesser ones like Jarry. Plus Swayman and Samsonov could be had with an offer sheet.
So to think teams are giving up a lot to acquire Hellebucyk or M NTC Ullmark to me is just fantasy.

A 27 year old who's never been a starter in his career, a bunch of band-aid solutions in their mid-30s, or coughing up a 1st+ in compensation and over-paying a goalie who's not as good as any of Hellebuyck, Saros, Ullmark with an offer sheet?

To me, those are less appealing options than trading for a star goalie.

22 juin 2023 à 11 h 58

#11

GMBL

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Quoting: villenash

Schneider was not considered as good as Saros is right now when he was traded to NJD. Schneider had not even hit 100 regular season games yet and had never been a starter in the NHL. Saros has nearly 300 games already, has been nominated for the Vezina, is likely top 5 in voting this year, an all-star, and has been a consistent, elite starting goaltender. They are just not comparable.

Having said that, I don’t see NJD trading Nemec. Maybe NSH could maybe pry out Mercer, but I’m not convinced. Most likely a deal revolves around Vanecek, Holtz, and picks. But I’m not in love with that deal if I’m Trotz. Saros doesn’t need to be dealt, and Trotz is looking for a home run if he is. So unless that’s the case, I see Saros staying with NSH to start the season.

Saros definitely is more established than Schneider was and only 2 years older, but I'm meant he was still considered a top goalie at the time of the trade despite his inexperience (perhaps overrated). He didn't have the games played, but he did have the Vezina numbers, so NJ clearly thought they were getting a 26 yo Vezina caliber goalie.

I think Trotz would consider Holtz a home run, he's one of the top 10 prospects in this League. It really depends if they are trying to be competitive or not.

22 juin 2023 à 11 h 58

#12

Tintin

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Quoting: villenash

Saros is significantly better, more seasoned, more recognized by the league than Schneider was when he was traded.

Schneider was not considered as good as Saros is right now when he was traded to NJD. Schneider had not even hit 100 regular season games yet and had never been a starter in the NHL. Saros has nearly 300 games already, has been nominated for the Vezina, is likely top 5 in voting this year, an all-star, and has been a consistent, elite starting goaltender. They are just not comparable.

Among goalies playing at least 25 games, Schneider had 3 top 10 placings in 5v5 GSAx/60 in the years before being traded to the Devils. He was an elite goalie in pretty much every sense of the word at the time the Devils traded for him. Schneider was also the Canucks starter in his last season there earning 60% of the starts in 12-13.
Over the last three seasons Saros averages out to about the same as Schneider.

Quoting: villenash

Having said that, I don’t see NJD trading Nemec. Maybe NSH could maybe pry out Mercer, but I’m not convinced. Most likely a deal revolves around Vanecek, Holtz, and picks. But I’m not in love with that deal if I’m Trotz. Saros doesn’t need to be dealt, and Trotz is looking for a home run if he is. So unless that’s the case, I see Saros staying with NSH to start the season.

Don't think there's a chance in hell Mercer gets dealt for Saros, or any goalie for that matter. Top 6 fwds on ELCs carries more value to their teams than goalies do, even if such goalies are Jusse Saros.

Holtz + Vanecek is a deal that makes sense for both teams if they find themselves in a buying / selling state of mind, but such a package would in all likelihood be the max-ceiling in terms of value for what Saros could return in a trade.

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22 juin 2023 à 12 h 27

#13

NHLfan10506

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Quoting: villenash

Saros is significantly better, more seasoned, more recognized by the league than Schneider was when he was traded.

Okay, give me the comp that suggests Saros gets two top-10 prospects plus a top prospect goalie…and I will use that.

This has become routine….so I say the same thing every year. Trust the comps. Fans and people say, “comps don’t apply to my guy, he is different”…and for the most part, the comps win out.

If there is no comp, then it is likely there will be no trade.

22 juin 2023 à 12 h 32

#14

NHLfan10506

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Quoting: Goorts

One comparable that maybe you are overlooking is in 2016, Toronto got Freddy Anderson from the Ducks for a 1st and 2nd. That was when he was in a 1A / 1B situation with Gibson. And Andersen's numbers in those years weren't bad at all considering it was almost 8yrs ago. Just food for thought.

It’s included in the original list but did mention here. Andersen was a 1B that was an RFA without a deal. He got #30 and #50 picks for a return. That is probably a useful comp for Swayman.

But I did mentioned that goalies are more often traded at the end of their contracts, which is true. Every team needs two goalies and they often have fixed budgets, so guys who need new deals are likely to get moved. Andersen is one of many examples of that.

22 juin 2023 à 12 h 46

#15

NHLfan10506

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Quoting: F50marco

Well there are a couple factors that change a lot of things in the potential deal. TDL deal or off season with a full year left on the contract? Retention or no retention? Goalie market. Team desperation. etc etc.

I agree the CF AGM offers are over reaching but not all prior trade comps are perfect assumptions either. I think goalie trades are probably the most unpredictable also. The least easy to predict with trade comps.

Ultimately, I think Hellebucyk IMO is one of the best goalies available for trade in his prime in a long time. He and Suros could be future comp setters IMO. So yeah some of those trade proposals are farfetched but I think the return on those two could be higher than some of the trade comps suggest they should be also.

Comps provide a range…bookends, if you will…of plausible returns for goalies. One will rarely find a perfect match, but if they use a few of them, they will get close.

If a goalie is better or more unique…it doesn’t change anything. For instance, if comps suggest Goalie XYZ is worth 1st, 3rd. And Goalie ABC is a 2nd round pick better…add a 2nd to the comp (1st, 2nd, 3rd) or if there is $2m retained salary, add the market value for that amount (1st, 3rd, 4th).

But ignoring years of historical comps to say, they don’t apply, is simply wishcasting. Hellebuyck may be the best goalie traded since (I don’t know, Ryan Miller maybe)…that doesn’t mean all norms are thrown out the window.

22 juin 2023 à 12 h 50

#16

NHLfan10506

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Also…more times than not, if there are no comps, it likely means there will be no trade. For instance, what is the comp for Bedard (or 1oa pick this year)? You won’t find one. The conclusion from this ought to be, “Bedard/1oa won’t get traded”. Same applies for players with unique situations. Chances are, they don’t get moved.

22 juin 2023 à 13 h 40

#17

F50marco

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Quoting: NHLfan10506

Comps provide a range…bookends, if you will…of plausible returns for goalies. One will rarely find a perfect match, but if they use a few of them, they will get close.

If a goalie is better or more unique…it doesn’t change anything. For instance, if comps suggest Goalie XYZ is worth 1st, 3rd. And Goalie ABC is a 2nd round pick better…add a 2nd to the comp (1st, 2nd, 3rd) or if there is $2m retained salary, add the market value for that amount (1st, 3rd, 4th).

But ignoring years of historical comps to say, they don’t apply, is simply wishcasting. Hellebuyck may be the best goalie traded since (I don’t know, Ryan Miller maybe)…that doesn’t mean all norms are thrown out the window.

Yeah wasn't denying any of that. Only that they may be on the higher end of the spectrum and even possibly higher than those standard comparables. I don't think we've seen arguably, top 5 goalies traded in their prime with 1 year left on their contracts (without any extra baggage being the reason why they were being dealt in the first place) before to be honest. Not to mention possibly adding retention into the mix.

Once again, some of those offers those AGM's were stating above are simply too high but IMO the comps you used aren't necessarily a 2nd rounder from being valid either. (Just speaking for Saros and Hellebucyk here)

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22 juin 2023 à 13 h 56

#18

NHLfan10506

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Quoting: F50marco

Yeah wasn't denying any of that. Only that they may be on the higher end of the spectrum and even possibly higher than those standard comparables. I don't think we've seen arguably, top 5 goalies traded in their prime with 1 year left on their contracts (without any extra baggage being the reason why they were being dealt in the first place) before to be honest. Not to mention possibly adding retention into the mix.

Once again, some of those offers those AGM's were stating above are simply too high but IMO the comps you used aren't necessarily a 2nd rounder from being valid either. (Just speaking for Saros and Hellebucyk here)

The best goalies at the time of their trade were probably…

Bishop 2017
Miller 2014 (deadline)
Schneider 2013
Bryzgalov 2011 (rights)
Vokoun 2007
Toskala 2007
Luongo 2006
Hasek 2001

…in chronological order.

All were top goalies at the time.

22 juin 2023 à 18 h 28

#19

F50marco

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Quoting: NHLfan10506

The best goalies at the time of their trade were probably…

Bishop 2017
Miller 2014 (deadline)
Schneider 2013
Bryzgalov 2011 (rights)
Vokoun 2007
Toskala 2007
Luongo 2006
Hasek 2001

…in chronological order.

All were top goalies at the time.

But do some of these even apply though? (In terms of the value they got)

-Bishop was shipped out because injuries where starting to become apparent and when Vasilevskiy surpassed him and TB needed the cap space badly. That trade was a major underwhelming package at the time. Cernak's evolution helped mitigate that disaster of an offer but that was 100% hindsight. No one expected him to be as good as he is now.

-Miller wasn't even in his prime any more, let alone top 5 calibre when traded and if you look at the deal, STL actually still paid a decent price to get that version of Miller.

-Schneider this one is a little hard to compare because I think its fair to say that NJ paid for potential here and gambled (and potentially won?). They didn't have a known commodity yet. Schneider was only 26 and was playing second fiddle to Luongo. He hadn't even played more than 100 games prior to that trade yet.

-Bryzgalov as you mentioned was just his rights so that really doesn't apply here. He was however a top 5 goalie in the league though arguably.

-Vokoun is quite possibly the best comparable to be honest but realistically I think Hellebuyck is the better goalie between the two. Fla paid a pretty high premium for him though. The 9th, 40th and 58th pick.

-Toskala like Schneider before him was not proven commodity yet. Barely over 100 games at time of being traded. Still got a solid package.

-Luongo's package was a joke and quite possibly one of the worst deals in NHL history. Nuff said.

-Hasek is tough because he was still good but also 35-36 when traded. The offer wasn't the greatest. IDK is this a fair comparable? I don't think so.

I'll stand by my assertion, Hellebuyck mainly but also Saros are deserving of getting a massive haul, probably more than your willing to pay. They could easily be the best 2 goalies available through trade at time of trade in the past 20-30 years.

22 juin 2023 à 19 h 18

#20

dgibb10

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Quoting: villenash

Schneider was not considered as good as Saros is right now when he was traded to NJD. Schneider had not even hit 100 regular season games yet and had never been a starter in the NHL. Saros has nearly 300 games already, has been nominated for the Vezina, is likely top 5 in voting this year, an all-star, and has been a consistent, elite starting goaltender. They are just not comparable.

Having said that, I don’t see NJD trading Nemec. Maybe NSH could maybe pry out Mercer, but I’m not convinced. Most likely a deal revolves around Vanecek, Holtz, and picks. But I’m not in love with that deal if I’m Trotz. Saros doesn’t need to be dealt, and Trotz is looking for a home run if he is. So unless that’s the case, I see Saros staying with NSH to start the season.

Devils wouldn't do mercer for saros 1 for 1

22 juin 2023 à 19 h 55

#21

NHLfan10506

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Quoting: F50marco

But do some of these even apply though? (In terms of the value they got)

-Bishop was shipped out because injuries where starting to become apparent and when Vasilevskiy surpassed him and TB needed the cap space badly. That trade was a major underwhelming package at the time. Cernak's evolution helped mitigate that disaster of an offer but that was 100% hindsight. No one expected him to be as good as he is now.

-Miller wasn't even in his prime any more, let alone top 5 calibre when traded and if you look at the deal, STL actually still paid a decent price to get that version of Miller.

-Schneider this one is a little hard to compare because I think its fair to say that NJ paid for potential here and gambled (and potentially won?). They didn't have a known commodity yet. Schneider was only 26 and was playing second fiddle to Luongo. He hadn't even played more than 100 games prior to that trade yet.

-Bryzgalov as you mentioned was just his rights so that really doesn't apply here. He was however a top 5 goalie in the league though arguably.

-Vokoun is quite possibly the best comparable to be honest but realistically I think Hellebuyck is the better goalie between the two. Fla paid a pretty high premium for him though. The 9th, 40th and 58th pick.

-Toskala like Schneider before him was not proven commodity yet. Barely over 100 games at time of being traded. Still got a solid package.

-Luongo's package was a joke and quite possibly one of the worst deals in NHL history. Nuff said.

-Hasek is tough because he was still good but also 35-36 when traded. The offer wasn't the greatest. IDK is this a fair comparable? I don't think so.

I'll stand by my assertion, Hellebuyck mainly but also Saros are deserving of getting a massive haul, probably more than your willing to pay. They could easily be the best 2 goalies available through trade at time of trade in the past 20-30 years.

Appreciate the response. I didn’t mean to imply these guys were the most valuable or got the best returns. Just that at that moment were among the best to be dealt. All had different factors, as you point out.

I do not think either Hellebuyck or Saros get traded though. They are so valuable to their teams…but play a position with very high risk premium, which limits market price…so asks will be left unmet.

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