23 mai 2022
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RazWild</b></div><div>Lol, seriously?
Dude, you don't need to go back 5 years in order to see that these two are comparable players.
Stats don't lie.
In the last 3 years. Fiala has played FOUR less games, has SIX less goals, FOUR more assists, and has TWO LESS points than Nylander.
They also have the same exact Points Per Game rate which is identical to each other, 0.91.
This isn't hyperbole or rocket science.
No matter which way you look at it, their numbers are near identical.
End of story.
One also only needs to utilize *Pace* and adjust a player's stats to a full 82 game schedule by using a player's Pts/G rate to determine how they would of finished the year out. Simple, no?
Doing that, it clearly shows that Kevin Fiala has been on a 30 goal/70 point pace since 2018.
Sidenote: Kirill Kaprizov was on a 40 goal/80 point pace in his rookie season, which is why he got paid 40 goal scorer money after only one season in the NHL. Lo and behold, he scored 47 goals/108 points last year.
Yes, one can argue that pace doesn't mean anything because you can't say for certain that a player will hit those projected numbers. But it IS what they should of likely hit by virtue of their Pts/G rate. It is also an means to project out how a player can and will have future success by determining how they would of performed over a full 82 game schedule. Which is especially useful when handing out contracts to young players coming off of their ELC's.
Using *Pace* is why NHL front offices have been paying out large long-term contracts to all these young RFA and ELC players over the last few years. Despite there being a flat-cap currently.
And as far as Nylander goes, I simply was stating that he's had the benefit of playing on a line with either Matthews or Tavares for the last few years.
Whereas Fiala's most common linemates were guys like Freddy Gaudreau, Victor Rask, Nick Bjugstad, or the washed up corpes of Zach Parise and Eric Staal. At least until he got Boldy for the last 47 games of the season, last year.
The point being. Nylander has had the <em>benefit</em> of playing with much, much better players on his lines over the last three years than Fiala has had. And yet their numbers are near identical.
So, Fiala more or less was doing it on own. Go figure.</div></div>
Whether you are looking at 1, 3 or 5 years you are looking at pace regardless. A larger sample size could be better indicator, so personally I prefer to look over a 5-year period.
There are two parties in contract negotiations, so while execs are handing out big contracts they aren't necessarily thrilled in doing so. If they are getting max term and believe that they saving money since a higher cap = higher AAV for star players. Paying players big money based on what they are expected to do with no track record or setting them up for another huge pay day isn't executives preference, it's just the standard that was set. Teams have come to accept it except for Dallas' ownership apparently.
Since he's an elite player in his own right, the only benefit Nylander had with playing with Tavares and Matthews is that he wasn't inconvenienced by poor linemates like you claimed Fiala was until Boldy (he had a 0.82 PPG rate through 57% of the season) which isn't true. The stats from the 3-years clearly show that Fiala wasn't inconvenienced since he had similar stats to Nylander. Plus, the "corpse of Eric Staal" only missed like 4 games throughout his 4-years in Minnesota and had a 0.77 PPG pace which boils down to 2.35 pts over 3-games. Tavares had his worst goal drought since his rookie season, yet Nylander too had his best raw stat season like Fiala despite the struggles of that second line. The entire league saw an uptick in goals scored, so I'm going to confidently say that Fiala's increase in point has little to do with Boldy being top 6 talent.
If I'm comparing two players, I'm going to look at 5-years usually, 3-years if I'm looking for a trend.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHL_season_boy</b></div><div>1) they were going to trade Fiala last summer, that is a fact. They only brought him back because of the buyouts. Many wild fans don't know that, wild fans do.
Holl is a cap dump, so is Kerfoot, no matter how many times leafs fans force him on Minnesota or other teams. Better players have been given away for nothing thus offseason. MIN wouldn't take on holl, that's a fact.
3) no, Minnesota will absolutely not move dumba, or greenway who they gave extension to for a prospect, and holl and Arizona pick. MIN has gotten better player with Judd brackett and this year's draft is stacked</div></div>
To say that they were going to trade Fiala before he even did anything doesn't prove that they decided to trade him after in favor of Greenway specifically. Quite frankly even if it were true, that isn't relevant to Nylander in anyway since the comparison between the two stop beyond age, type of player, and a single season.
Better players than Kerfoot and Holl were traded for nothing, but worse players were signed for more in free agency. That means neither player is being paid above their grade, so the context of the trade matters. The trade is a net 0 cap for both sides, so no one is dumping cap.
To your third point, no one is suggesting that Minnesota would trade Dumba+Greenway for Robertson+Holl+Arz 2nd.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHL_season_boy</b></div><div>Greenway is still really good without the point, you have no idea what his role is. They let fiala go because they Rather pay Greenway and keep grief line together instead of paying players like fiala, and Nylander. Robertson would have 0 role exactly on Minnesota and has massive injury risk along with all finishing his elc soon. No , MIN say no because they aren't parting with Greenway and 1st round pick along with dumba for cap dump, b prospect, and nothing in addition to Nylander. Winger is straight up Minnesota last need</div></div>
They let Fiala go because with all the dead cap, they just couldn't afford him as Guerin said. He signed for 7.88m in LA but it's quite possible that he wanted more in Minnesota. With Talbot on the team making 3.6m, Guerin probably figured he had about 12m in cap next year. Signing Fiala would have made it difficult to fill the 6 other spots potentially, especially if they plan on keeping Dumba and if Boldy requires a significant raise. Fiala and Nylander aren't really comparables aside from last year where Fiala out did him.
Perhaps Minnesota does say no but your evaluation of the trade is way off base:
1) If Minnesota makes the playoffs their pick will be 16th to 32nd overall, that Arz 2nd is most likely going to be the 33rd-37th overall pick in the draft. So, that 2nd and a 3rd isnt a whole bunch of nothing. That Arz trade doesn't happen, so the Leafs wouldn't have that pick but I'm just evaluating that mock trade as is.
2) Holl is not a cap dump in this trade in any sense. The trade on the NHL-level is basically a net 0. If you want to be critical of Holl, he's a role player making 2m for 1-year, he can play top 4 minutes and play the PK. In other words, he's not overpaid, so not a cap dump in that sense either.
Minnesota may prefer Greenway over Holl+Robertson, but in the end, Holl is going to play a lot of the minutes that Dumba would have, so that a guy like Addison isn't throw into the deep end.
3) If Robertson has no role on the team he plays in the AHL (he's waiver exempt so there's no worry about losing him). The fact that his ELC is ending is a non-issue since he won't be due a significant raise. If he does end up playing on the main squad and pricing himself out, then they just simply trade him and they would get a significant amount of value out of the trade.
4) Finally, you said winger is the last need, but at the end of the day it's a winger + rhd for a winger+rhd. Of course if Dumba is in Minnesota's long term plans, they won't be wanting to move him. Or if the right side is already considered weak.