Habs value chart for Dubois

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Créé par: Blazingbat11

Équipe: 2022-23 Canadiens de Montréal

Date de création initiale: 18 juill. 2022

Publié: 18 juill. 2022

Mode - plafond salarial: Basique

Description

Let's start things off with the current impasse between Cheveldayoff and Hughes. Until the Jets back down from their rumored asking price of a 1 for 1, Suzuki for PLD, nothing will get done and PLD will remain a Jet and MTL will wait 2 years. At the moment there's no reason for WIN to back down from those demands, but since this is cap friendly, let's deal with the hypothetical that Cheveldayoff is ok with a package deal now.

Habs would essentially be looking at purchasing 2 years worth of Dubois. Now this is still incredibly expensive for a 24 year old top 6 Center. So, IMO, MTL would need to include 1 or 2 "premium" assets + non-cap dump roster player(s) to make a deal acceptable for the Jets to budge.

So let's determine what are the untouchables and the "premium" assets for the Habs (all prospects picked in the 2022 draft have been excluded) :

Untouchables / deal breakers:
- Nick Suzuki
- Cole Caufield
- MTL 2023 1st rd pick unprotected. (Let's all be honest here, there is a zero % chance MTL offers their 1st with no protection)
- MTL 2024 1st rd pick unprotected. (This one could possibly fall into the "premium" asset section, not sure yet)

"Premium" assets:
- MTL 2023 1st rd pick (top 10 protected).
- MTL 2024 1st rd pick (top 5 protected. Lowered the protection amount since 2023 draft is considered a super draft).
- FLA 2023 1st rd pick unprotected. Odds are that it will be a late 1st (20s +).
- Kaiden Guhle
- Kirby Dach (even though he's a roster player, I'm including him in the "premium" asset section due to his age, and what the Habs paid to acquire him)
- Justin Barron
- Sean Farrell

For Clarification, not all the "preimum" assets are of equal worth. But I firmly believe this is the cream of the Habs crop (again, excluding 2022 draft choices...so far Slafkovsky and even Hutson would fall in the untouchable category, with maybe Mesar in the "premium" assets)

Habs still have plenty of other "solid" assets (Mailloux, Harris, Roy, Primeau, Kidney, Norlinder, Xhekaj, and all their 2nd rd picks), but none of these would really move the needle with regards to a trade for PLD.

Establishing non cap dump roster players that the Jets would be interested in....the only players I can think of are Dvorak, Anderson and Evans honestly.... Maybe Jets fans could add other players they would consider in this category?

After all this 1 or 2 more roster players would still need to be added to even out salary cap issues (Armia? Drouin?), but keep in mind these players would not add much value to the trade.

So there you have it. Let me know if you agree!

Signatures de joueurs autonomes

RFA	ANS	CAP HIT
Dubois, Pierre-Luc	8	7 875 000 $
Dach, Kirby	2	2 800 000 $
Primeau, Cayden	2	950 000 $
Montembeault, Samuel	2	950 000 $

Transactions

MTL

Dubois, Pierre-Luc [Droits de RFA]

WPG

Armia, Joel
Dvorak, Christian
Choix de 1e ronde en 2023 (FLA)
Choix de 1e ronde en 2023 (MTL)

Détails additionnels:

(MTL 2023 1st rd pick is top 10 protected)
(FLA 2023 1st rd pick is unprotected)

MTL

Future Considerations

ARI

Hoffman, Mike
Choix de 2e ronde en 2024 (COL)

Rachats de contrats

Karl Alzner: 833 333 $

Repêchage	1e ronde	2e ronde	3e ronde	4e ronde	5e ronde	6e ronde	7e ronde
2023
2024
2025

FORMATION

VUE À LONG TERME

INTÉGRÉ

TEXTE INTÉGRÉ

TAILLE DE LA FORMATION	PLAFOND SALARIAL	CAP HIT	EXCÉDENTS	BONIS	ESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
23	82 500 000 $	77 122 499 $	1 132 500 $	4 982 500 $	5 377 501 $

Ailier gauche	Centre	Ailier droit
Slafkovsky, Juraj 950 000 $950 000 $ (3 500 000 $$4M) AD, AG RFA - 3	Suzuki, Nick 7 875 000 $7 875 000 $ C UFA - 8	Caufield, Cole 880 833 $880 833 $ (850 000 $$850K) AG, AD UFA - 1
Drouin, Jonathan 5 500 000 $5 500 000 $ AG, AD M-NTC UFA - 1	Dubois, Pierre-Luc 7 875 000 $7 875 000 $ C UFA - 1	Anderson, Josh 5 500 000 $5 500 000 $ AD, AG M-NTC UFA - 5
Dadonov, Evgeni 2 500 000 $2 500 000 $ AD, AG M-NTC UFA - 1	Dach, Kirby 2 800 000 $2 800 000 $ C, AD RFA - 4	Gallagher, Brendan 6 500 000 $6 500 000 $ AD, AG M-NTC, NMC UFA - 5
Pitlick, Rem 1 100 000 $1 100 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 2	Evans, Jake 1 700 000 $1 700 000 $ C UFA - 3	Byron, Paul 3 400 000 $3 400 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 1

Défenseur gaucher	Défenseur droitier	Gardien de but
Matheson, Michael 4 875 000 $4 875 000 $ DG M-NTC UFA - 4	Savard, David 3 500 000 $3 500 000 $ DD UFA - 3	Allen, Jake 2 875 000 $2 875 000 $ G UFA - 1
Edmundson, Joel 875 000 $875 000 $ DG/DD M-NTC UFA - 2	Wideman, Chris 762 500 $762 500 $ DD UFA - 2	Montembeault, Samuel 950 000 $950 000 $ G UFA - 2
Guhle, Kaiden 863 333 $863 333 $ (420 000 $$420K) DG/DD RFA - 3	Barron, Justin 925 000 $925 000 $ (212 500 $$212K) DD RFA - 2	Primeau, Cayden 950 000 $950 000 $ G RFA - 3

Laissés de côté	Liste des blessés (IR)	Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Schueneman, Corey 750 000 $750 000 $ DG/DD UFA - 1	Price, Carey 10 500 000 $10 500 000 $ G NMC UFA - 4
Pezzetta, Michael 750 000 $750 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 1

18 juill. 2022 à 12 h 49

TheRealisticGuy

Habs4Ever

Rejoint: mai 2022

Messages: 4,297

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This is pretty spot on except I do believe Kaiden Guhle falls in the untouchables after we traded Alex Romanov

Blazingbat11, SevenLeg et Nake_qc a aimé ceci.

18 juill. 2022 à 12 h 50

VladislavTretiak

Habs 7th round 1983

Rejoint: déc. 2019

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Your thinking is very well detailed but I think there's a price above which Montreal shouldn't move. Trading MTL 1st 2023 should be excluded from the offer.

I would suggest:
- Dvorak
- Armia
- Kidney or Mysak
- FLA 1st 2023

I understand that Winnipeg might believe that it's not enough to trade PLD but above that price I would just move on.

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18 juill. 2022 à 12 h 51

ash

Rejoint: sept. 2020

Messages: 112

Mentions "j'aime": 32

Good write-up! As a Jets fan I think I'd be content with two premium assets + one solid asset as a return.

I'm assuming Justin Barron has to go the other way since WPG has Morgan Barron already. After that I'd like Dach, but would also understand if Chevy just wanted a 1st rounder instead. Depends if we're planning to rebuild or retool post-PLD I guess ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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18 juill. 2022 à 12 h 53

Jetman

Jetsfan

Rejoint: sept. 2017

Messages: 7,985

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As Winnipeg has a full pipeline of LHD, please exclude any prospects like that.

A Dvorak/Anderson is the roster player, Barron is probably the only prospect that the Jets would want(unless Dach is that) plus picks

Because of the situation, I do think the Jets will sign him for a year and see where everything lands come June 2023

18 juill. 2022 à 12 h 53

SevenLeg

Hop on the Slaftrain

Rejoint: févr. 2019

Messages: 16,176

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This is really done, agree with most of it. I'd personally put Guhle one tier above not because he's as valuable as Caufield & Suzuki, but because they simply can't afford to trade him. Thankfully I think he's not the main piece WPG would target as an LHD. But again, fantastic post.

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18 juill. 2022 à 12 h 54

Blazingbat11

Démarrer sujet

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Rejoint: janv. 2017

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Quoting: VladislavTretiak

Honestly, if the Habs finish out of the top 10 in next years draft...I'd be ok with including it. There's still probably a really solid prospect in between 10 and 20, but the Habs get to keep the pick for a chance at Bedard, Michkov, Fantilli, etc.

moving MTL 2023 1st rd pick with lottery protection is the Habs having their cake and eating it too.

18 juill. 2022 à 12 h 54

Lancebmx

Rejoint: oct. 2020

Messages: 10,492

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I think a trade of Barron, Kidney, Florida's first round pick and Drouin and/or Byron would be good for both sides.

18 juill. 2022 à 12 h 56

Lancebmx

Rejoint: oct. 2020

Messages: 10,492

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Quoting: Jetman

I don't see Dach getting sent there, but maybe a player like Kidney would be a good secondary option?

18 juill. 2022 à 12 h 57

VladislavTretiak

Habs 7th round 1983

Rejoint: déc. 2019

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Quoting: Lancebmx

I think a trade of Barron, Kidney, Florida's first round pick and Drouin and/or Byron would be good for both sides.

Barron: Montreal has no RHD depth

18 juill. 2022 à 13 h 2

#10

Blazingbat11

Démarrer sujet

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Quoting: SevenLeg

As much as I'd like to agree with you. I'd say Barron is probably the closest to the untouchable section rather than Guhle. Both are really close, but with so many LD prospects still in the pipeline even with Romy gone (now with Hutson in the mix), RD is still the least expendable area.

TheRealisticGuy et Nake_qc a aimé ceci.

18 juill. 2022 à 13 h 6

#11

SevenLeg

Hop on the Slaftrain

Rejoint: févr. 2019

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Quoting: Blazingbat11

I disagree. Guhle looks a clear-cut above Barron so I think they keep their best D prospect regardless of handedness. Hutson is more or less 3 years away from the NHL and is too much of a boom-or-bust to be a decisive factor in a Dubois trade in my opinion.

TheRealisticGuy a aimé ceci.

18 juill. 2022 à 13 h 16

#12

Lenny7

Rejoint: janv. 2017

Messages: 13,291

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Excellent write up. I think the way I'm looking at it right now as non Jets/non Habs fan is this way:

Winnipeg needs to set a price and stick to it. I've heard the "He wants to go to Montreal!", "He's going to Montreal as a UFA in 2 years!", and "Winnipeg has no leverage!", but they've also got 2 years of control. If this is the price they've set, great, do it. If not, don't. Dubois is a 24 year old center that has absolutely no trade protection. If someone comes along and offers what you want, take it from them. Even with only 2 years, he still holds a ton of value to a playoff team, and they can just let him walk in 2 years. When you look at rental prices, the deadline this past year saw an absolute boatload going back for a number of rentals, so I'd be curious to see what 1.25 years of Dubois could even bring back.

All of that being said, he also completely quit on the Jackets before he was moved, so there's potential for him to do it again (in which case buyer friggin' beware! Imagine what happens in Montreal when he has a couple of bad weeks and the fans/media rip his soul out!).

I don't know...I guess it all depends on what they're actually looking for.

Cheers!

Blazingbat11 a aimé ceci.

18 juill. 2022 à 13 h 16

#13

LIRIK

Rejoint: mars 2022

Messages: 2,671

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I would love to keep Barron, but i think he's the only piece Winnipeg would build a trade around for Dubois.

Add Dvorak + one of our overpaid wingers for cap space + MTL 2023 2nd (33-38), and i think it's a fair price for both teams.

18 juill. 2022 à 13 h 18

#14

MisstheWhalers

Rejoint: janv. 2019

Messages: 23,653

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Dvorak, Drouin, two of Kidney/Barron/Ylonen, Florida 1st for Dubois.

18 juill. 2022 à 13 h 18

#15

Blazingbat11

Démarrer sujet

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Quoting: SevenLeg

Fair enough. I believe it's much closer than you think. We have a solid sample size of Barron playing pro level (AHL included) to project he's at minimum a #3-4 dman in the future. Guhle, while I think you're right with him being more valuable, still hasn't played a single pro game, and again, considering organizational need, Barron should have the slight edge...

but let's face it, both of us are nitpicking here lol Both Guhle and Barron are super important to the team.

18 juill. 2022 à 13 h 19

#16

Campabee

Rejoint: nov. 2018

Messages: 15,504

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Quoting: Lancebmx

I think a trade of Barron, Kidney, Florida's first round pick and Drouin and/or Byron would be good for both sides.

Not really, Montreal's RD pipeline rivals Winnipeg's for emptiness LOL. Also the Jets would have no one to immediately replace Dubois down the middle and Hughes specifically targeted Dach so I don't see him giving him up. Ideally maybe a trade could be swung if we went something like Dvorak + Armia + Florida's 2023 1st + Kidney + Barron for PLD + Salomonson

18 juill. 2022 à 13 h 21

#17

Birtle34

Bandwagon fairweathe

Rejoint: juin 2018

Messages: 7,608

Mentions "j'aime": 3,255

Personally being a jets fan, my hope is a first plus a rhd dman for future approach is my priority. I’ve heard claims that dvorak is not that big of a drop off from Dubois and half the price. So kind of interesting. Would love a gamble of dach and try to teach him a laine type role and try to unleash him on the pp. but I’m guessing dach was added to Montreal for such a reason. That could be quite the pp, with dach on one side and Caufield on the other.

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18 juill. 2022 à 13 h 21

#18

Blazingbat11

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Quoting: MisstheWhalers

Dvorak, Drouin, two of Kidney/Barron/Ylonen, Florida 1st for Dubois.

I would do Dvo, Drouin, Kidney, Ylonen, FLAs 1st. I would have to imagine WIN adding very minor pieces coming back to MTL. Very rare to see 5 assets going for 1. but it wouldn't surprise me in this case.

MisstheWhalers et TheRealisticGuy a aimé ceci.

18 juill. 2022 à 13 h 29

#19

Blazingbat11

Démarrer sujet

Molson beer is meh

Rejoint: janv. 2017

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Quoting: Lenny7

I think if the Jets would be interested in a package deal, Hughes would of been able to figure something out by now (As you can see on here, in some cases, both fan bases can actually agree on certain package deals, which is extremely rare on CapFriendly lol). I think you're right, as in Cheveldayoff has set his price and is sticking to it. It's just that it's for one of MTLs untouchables.... so nothing is happening.

Lenny7 et Nake_qc a aimé ceci.

18 juill. 2022 à 13 h 35

#20

MisstheWhalers

Rejoint: janv. 2019

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Quoting: Blazingbat11

I honestly don't think its even that bad for the Jets, really don't think there'd be much of a drop-off and if Drouin rebounds playing with Ehlers and Dvorak can keep up his post Ducharme firing numbers playing 2C in Winnipeg the Jets probably don't drop off much if any, in fact they might do better, that is if Chevy can finally realize his bottom six isn't good enough and does something to address it as well.

I just don't see the Jets falling out of the sky without Dubois, they're already skidding along the ground so what's the difference... lol 😆

Blazingbat11 a aimé ceci.

18 juill. 2022 à 13 h 35

#21

Lenny7

Rejoint: janv. 2017

Messages: 13,291

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Quoting: Blazingbat11

The good thing about Chevy (or bad thing?) is that he seems to stick to his guns. The Laine trade demand kind of proved how he operates...he wanted a similarly aged up and coming player, and got it in PLD (for better or worse...).

I guess the one thing that I can juuuuust about guarantee is that they absolutely aren't going to sell for anything below perceived market value...if they did, it'd likely be grounds for firing given what he gave up a year and a half ago to get Dubois in the first place. Winnipeg has been very patient with their front office, but you've gotta think that a loss on a move at this point would put their front office on a very, very hot set of seats...

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18 juill. 2022 à 13 h 52

#22

Lancebmx

Rejoint: oct. 2020

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Quoting: VladislavTretiak

Barron: Montreal has no RHD depth

Well Mailloux but he isn't close to ready yet. I say Barron just for the family ties and the fact they also have no RHD depth. I do believe he would be pretty close to untouchable as well, that's probably why nothing got done yet.

18 juill. 2022 à 13 h 54

#23

Lancebmx

Rejoint: oct. 2020

Messages: 10,492

Mentions "j'aime": 8,125

Quoting: Campabee

I don't think that's awful.

18 juill. 2022 à 13 h 57

#24

VladislavTretiak

Habs 7th round 1983

Rejoint: déc. 2019

Messages: 1,623

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Quoting: Lancebmx

If it were just up to me, Barron would be untouchable. But I don't know what are the GM plans for him. As for Mailloux, it's either we accept as a society that a 17 year old kid got a brain cramp for 10 minutes or we trade him to a team in a city where people don't even have a clue if they have a hockey club or not. I'm not even sure the population of Winnipeg would accept a sex offender in a trade.

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18 juill. 2022 à 14 h 2

#25

Campabee

Rejoint: nov. 2018

Messages: 15,504

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Quoting: Lancebmx

I don't think that's awful.

LMAO, I am honestly surprised that you think its not awful, we have almost always disagreed on everything. I guess if we can agree then there is hope both GM's will also find common ground LOL

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