RNH to Colorado - Who Adds Or Is It DOA - CapFriendly

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RNH to Colorado - Who Adds Or Is It DOA

Créé par: Anus_McLeod

Équipe: 2020-21 Avalanche du Colorado

Date de création initiale: 8 juill. 2020

Publié: 8 juill. 2020

Mode - plafond salarial: Basique

Description

My general preference is for the Avs to sign Hall and move out a couple pieces to fit him in. I'm not keen on giving up Byram, Newhook, or Timmins when it's not necessary. That said, it makes for good conversation, and it's not a given that all free agents want to play in Colorado above anywhere else, so here goes.

Who adds in the Avs/Oilers trade? Or are RNH and Byram untouchable?

The logic is that Byram is somewhat expendable for Colorado due to Makar, Girard, and Timmins. It still hurts, but RNH would be a great add and Broberg makes up for the loss of depth at LD in the system.

Edmonton could use an offensive dynamo on the back end. Byram is ahead of Broberg by a wide margin in that area and is probably ready to debut next season. Adding him to a group that will feature Bouchard, Bear, Klefbom, Nurse, and Jones really solidifies things. It can also allow for Nurse or Klefbom to be traded at some point. They lose RNH, which is a hefty price, but it may be worth it depending on how they view Byram. They also gain a solid player in Compher and cap space to pursue a free agent if they choose to do so.

Florida's first is probably a pipe dream, but I'm hoping Tallon loves Zadorov and needs to replace pending losses at the forward position. That one can be modified though and shouldn't be a huge sticking point.

Expansion draft:

Forwards --- MacKinnon, Landeskog, Rantanen, Nugent-Hopkins, Burakovsky, Nichushkin, and Jost protected (Dadonov and Kadri exposed)

Defensemen --- Graves, Makar, and Girard protected (Johnson exposed - waives NMC)

Goalies --- Whoever deserves it is protected

One of Kadri and Dodonov is lost to Seattle, and all of Cole, Calvert, and Bellemare are lost in free agency. Newhook, Bowers, O'Connor, and Broberg fill the voids and allow for continued cap compliance.

Signatures de joueurs autonomes

RFA	ANS	CAP HIT
Burakovsky, André	5	4 850 000 $
Dries, Sheldon	2	750 000 $
Graves, Ryan	4	2 850 000 $
Greer, AJ	1	750 000 $
Jost, Tyson	3	1 500 000 $
Kamenev, Vladislav	2	750 000 $
Nichushkin, Valeri	4	2 750 000 $
O'Connor, Logan	2	750 000 $

UFA		ANS	CAP HIT
Dadonov, Evgeni		3	4 850 000 $
Connauton, Kevin		2	1 000 000 $

Transactions

COL

Priskie, Chase
Choix de 1e ronde en 2021 (FLA)

FLA

Donskoi, Joonas
Ranta, Sampo [Liste de réserve]
Zadorov, Nikita [Droits de RFA]

COL

Broberg, Philip
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan
Russell, Kris (1 200 000 $ retained)
Choix de 3e ronde en 2020 (EDM)

EDM

Byram, Bowen
Compher, J.T.
Choix de 7e ronde en 2020 (COL)

Repêchage	1e ronde	2e ronde	3e ronde	4e ronde	5e ronde	6e ronde	7e ronde
2020
2021
2022

FORMATION

VUE À LONG TERME

INTÉGRÉ

TEXTE INTÉGRÉ

TAILLE DE LA FORMATION	PLAFOND SALARIAL	CAP HIT	EXCÉDENTS	BONIS	ESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
22	81 500 000 $	79 073 928 $	0 $	2 925 000 $	2 426 072 $

Formation

Ailier gauche	Centre	Ailier droit
Landeskog, Gabriel 5 571 429 $5 571 429 $ AG, C M-NTC UFA - 1	MacKinnon, Nathan 6 300 000 $6 300 000 $ C M-NTC UFA - 3	Rantanen, Mikko 9 250 000 $9 250 000 $ AD, C UFA - 5
Dadonov, Evgeni 4 850 000 $4 850 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 3	Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan 6 000 000 $6 000 000 $ AG, C UFA - 1	Burakovsky, André 4 850 000 $4 850 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 2
Jost, Tyson 1 500 000 $1 500 000 $ C UFA - 1	Kadri, Nazem 4 500 000 $4 500 000 $ C M-NTC UFA - 2	Nichushkin, Valeri 2 750 000 $2 750 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 2
Calvert, Matt 2 850 000 $2 850 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 1	Bellemare, Pierre-Édouard 1 800 000 $1 800 000 $ C, AG UFA - 1	Kaut, Martin 863 333 $863 333 $ (425 000 $$425K) AD RFA - 3

Défenseur gaucher	Défenseur droitier	Gardien de but
Graves, Ryan 2 850 000 $2 850 000 $ DG UFA - 3	Makar, Cale 880 833 $880 833 $ (2 500 000 $$2M) DD UFA - 1	Grubauer, Philipp 3 333 333 $3 333 333 $ G UFA - 1
Girard, Samuel 5 000 000 $5 000 000 $ DG/DD UFA - 7	Johnson, Erik 6 000 000 $6 000 000 $ DD M-NTC, NMC UFA - 3	Francouz, Pavel 2 000 000 $2 000 000 $ G UFA - 2
Cole, Ian 3 450 000 $3 450 000 $ DG/DD UFA - 1	Timmins, Conor 925 000 $925 000 $ DD RFA - 1

Laissés de côté	Liste des blessés (IR)	Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Kamenev, Vladislav 750 000 $750 000 $ C RFA
Russell, Kris 2 800 000 $2 800 000 $ DG/DD M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1

Unités spéciales

Avantage numérique 1
Landeskog, G.		Kadri, N.		Rantanen, M.
	MacKinnon, N.		Makar, C.

Avantage numérique 2
Dadonov, E.		Nugent-Hopkins, R.		Burakovsky, A.
	Jost, T.		Girard, S.

Infériorité numérique 1
	Bellemare, P.	Calvert, M.
	Cole, I.	Johnson, E.

Infériorité numérique 2
	Jost, T.	Nichushkin, V.
	Graves, R.	Timmins, C.

8 juill. 2020 à 13 h 36

Lainesabust

PLD is a stud

Rejoint: juin 2020

Messages: 534

Mentions "j'aime": 107

edm no way

8 juill. 2020 à 13 h 46

Bringer_Of_Snow

Rejoint: avr. 2016

Messages: 1,422

Mentions "j'aime": 670

Not even consideration from Edmonton on that. The Nuge-Drai-Yamamoto line was arguably the hottest line in the whole league for the last 20 games of the season (starting from the game they were put together). RNH means a lot to the team, especially since EDM lacks top 6 forward talent. Having that 2nd line threat just opens up that much more space for 97. While Byram is obviously a higher touted prospect, an elite skater like Broberg could easily pan out to have a more successful career. The speculative potential between two highly ranked d prospects doesn't warrant a difference of RNH. Compher is a good depth guy, but he doesn't make up that gap either.

MisstheWhalers et CD282 a aimé ceci.

8 juill. 2020 à 13 h 50

Timmah007

Rejoint: juin 2020

Messages: 8,634

Mentions "j'aime": 3,931

Nothing against anything in that package but nuge is massively important to oilers

MisstheWhalers a aimé ceci.

8 juill. 2020 à 13 h 52

ArakinSkywalker

Dr.

Rejoint: mai 2019

Messages: 2,506

Mentions "j'aime": 1,438

Edmonton hasn't had much success with RNH as their second line center. He's only started producing when he got moved to drai's wing, and half of his points come from line1 PP time with mcdavid and drai. It doesn't seem worth it to break up what could be one of the best future top2 pairings in the league with makar and byram for an average 2nd line center and a top 4 dman.

8 juill. 2020 à 13 h 57

UpsideDownQue

Rejoint: août 2017

Messages: 8,440

Mentions "j'aime": 6,060

Nuge only having 1 year left on his deal makes this unappealing for COL. They lose the better prospect and also likely lose Nuge to UFA after this season when the Avs need to sign Landeskog, Makar, Grubauer, etc, especially since you signed Dadonov with term too. Long term this hurts COL imo. I think Nuge is one of those guys who is more valuable to EDM than he is in a trade

Also leaving Kadri/Dadonov exposed to Seattle instead of Nichushkin/Jost is a huge mistake imo

ArakinSkywalker, MisstheWhalers, DirtyDangle and 1 other person a aimé ceci.

8 juill. 2020 à 13 h 59

Anus_McLeod

Démarrer sujet

Rejoint: avr. 2020

Messages: 3,584

Mentions "j'aime": 3,444

Quoting: Bringer_Of_Snow

I probably agree with most of this TBH. I think it's an interesting proposal though, especially if Edmonton thinks they can sign Toffoli or Hoffman (as examples) in free agency. Both teams could improve, but it is largely contingent on that happening.

I do think the gap between Byram and Broberg is bigger than you make it sound, but it's likely not enough to warrant RNH, even with Compher and the salary dump. Appreciate the thoughts.

8 juill. 2020 à 14 h 6

Anus_McLeod

Démarrer sujet

Rejoint: avr. 2020

Messages: 3,584

Mentions "j'aime": 3,444

Quoting: moli92

Avs wouldn't do it unless RNH sticks around past his contract at a decent cost. The cap works, but only if they lose one of Kadri and Dadonov, which is why I exposed them. I vision RNH staying another 6 years or something. I'm hesitant to give Kadri that kind of term, as he'll soon be on the wrong side of 30.

I get the point about RNH being more valuable to Edmonton than elsewhere though. That's valid.

8 juill. 2020 à 14 h 7

Lenny7

Rejoint: janv. 2017

Messages: 13,291

Mentions "j'aime": 11,051

I think the rumor was that Florida wanted to reduce their payroll to somewhere around $70 mil, so that's not going to work anyway.

I'm kind of curious as to the Broberg addition to the RNH trade. How are you breaking this trade down in terms of value for each team? Broberg is obviously not Byram, but I don't see their values being SO far apart that Edmonton is essentially giving up their 4th best player, plus their best prospect (and a pick) to get a guy who hasn't even played a game in the NHL yet (which doesn't take away from the fact that he's an outstanding prospect), and JT Compher. I just feel like it's too much subtraction from Edmonton's side.

If the idea is that Edmonton won't be able to re-sign RNH, I can see something happening, but as @Bringer_Of_Snow said, that line was huge this year, and I can't see Edmonton moving him right now.

CD282 a aimé ceci.

8 juill. 2020 à 14 h 17

Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

Rejoint: janv. 2020

Messages: 8,370

Mentions "j'aime": 2,275

Quoting: moli92

If they get Nuge they send Landeskog back the other way. They can't afford to re-sign both.

8 juill. 2020 à 14 h 17

#10

kafle22

Kafle

Rejoint: mai 2019

Messages: 2,467

Mentions "j'aime": 483

oilers say no
Byram plays the left sid which the oilers have plenty of. Not saying those players are better than bryam but the oilers have enough to survive on the left sde

8 juill. 2020 à 14 h 18

#11

Anus_McLeod

Démarrer sujet

Rejoint: avr. 2020

Messages: 3,584

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Quoting: Lenny7

It's not that Edmonton wouldn't be able to re-sign him, but whether they want to commit such a large chunk of the cap to a few forwards or surround their two superstar Cs with complementary players like Athanasiou.

It's hard to value the difference between Byram and Broberg, so I struggled there tbh. My thoughts in terms of value were as a whole though:

Is Edmonton minus RNH and Russel, plus Byram, Compher and Hoffman (maybe) as a UFA signing > Edmonton as they sit now. I think it's a fair question and also think it's going to take a premium to dump cap in the current environment (i.e. I put a premium on Russell). I initially left out the pick from Edmonton but then thought Avs fans would kill me and added it (lol). In the end, I don't think this one gets there. Like the description says though, I think it makes for good conversation.

Edit: Also they can trade Nurse, who will want more than he's worth after his next deal.

Lenny7 a aimé ceci.

8 juill. 2020 à 14 h 20

#12

Anus_McLeod

Démarrer sujet

Rejoint: avr. 2020

Messages: 3,584

Mentions "j'aime": 3,444

Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

If they get Nuge they send Landeskog back the other way. They can't afford to re-sign both.

They can sign both unless you think they're getting $8M each or something. I don't think so though.

8 juill. 2020 à 14 h 35

#13

Lenny7

Rejoint: janv. 2017

Messages: 13,291

Mentions "j'aime": 11,051

Quoting: SuckMyAvs

Understandable.

Really, If I'm Colorado and OK with moving Byram, I think I do it for someone similar to RNH, but cheaper, and under team control for longer. You have a really good cap situation for 2020-2021, but then you get into re-signing guys like Makar and Timmins and Landy, probably end up spending more for whoever is between the pipes...there's a lot of space today, but that'll disappear prettttttty quickly.

Anus_McLeod a aimé ceci.

8 juill. 2020 à 14 h 47

#14

Dan10900

Rejoint: juin 2018

Messages: 7,261

Mentions "j'aime": 2,706

Broberg's ceiling is similar to Byram's floor... and Broberg is a huge risk

8 juill. 2020 à 14 h 52

#15

Anus_McLeod

Démarrer sujet

Rejoint: avr. 2020

Messages: 3,584

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Quoting: Lenny7

I am kind of a cap nerd and generally try to project a few years out. I think this works, so long as Landy, Grubauer, and RNH are reasonable with their demands.

I tried Danault and Kopitar (salary retained) and got blown up in the comments on those too. That's fine, as my criteria for finding fair value is that both fan bases should probably hate the proposal, lol. In the end though the AGM thing is so easy that it doesn't have to be perfect. I had to put more thought into things in the other forum I used to post in. Not sure if that's a good or a bad thing...

Lenny7 a aimé ceci.

8 juill. 2020 à 15 h 12

#16

coga16

Rejoint: juin 2015

Messages: 20,030

Mentions "j'aime": 12,187

thats a horrible deal for the Avs

Nuge is going to be an expensive UFA and Broberg is a far way away and sounds like still quite the project of a DMan after a under whelming Dev+1 Season
I dont see how the Avs are better off with this deal, they take all the risk plus get a god awful dman in Russell who shouldn't step foot on the ice for a cup contending team

8 juill. 2020 à 15 h 12

#17

Smokingun71

Rejoint: avr. 2018

Messages: 1,616

Mentions "j'aime": 748

I am a huge fan of both teams. I don’t think either team would make this deal. Like others have said, RNH is too important to the oilers. He is excelling with Draisaitl and in case of injury can slide into the C spot, 200 foot players like him are guys you try and keep. From what I hear from friends that live in Vancouver and have watched Bryram play in person countless times is that he is an offensive force but really struggled this past year defensively.

Anus_McLeod et CD282 a aimé ceci.

8 juill. 2020 à 15 h 19

#18

Banman73

Grizzlies

Rejoint: févr. 2016

Messages: 166

Mentions "j'aime": 32

That's an easy pass for the Oilers. Nuge loves Edmonton and will be resigned. That deal hurts the Oilers in many ways. Many people undervalue Nuge, but the Oilers don't and a true fans knows he brings a lot more than offense to this team. He is probably the best 2 way forward on the Oilers.

CD282 a aimé ceci.

8 juill. 2020 à 15 h 25

#19

Anus_McLeod

Démarrer sujet

Rejoint: avr. 2020

Messages: 3,584

Mentions "j'aime": 3,444

Quoting: Banman73

The last two sentences are why I want him on the Avs.

I get that he's important, but if you think through all the dominoes falling (cap space for a UFA signing, trading Nurse for something good, and having Byram for the next decade and a half), it seems to set up the Oilers pretty well longer term. Not saying you should be a yes, but I think the easy pass is little overstated (IMO).

8 juill. 2020 à 15 h 29

#20

CD282

Rejoint: mars 2017

Messages: 24,091

Mentions "j'aime": 7,772

Quoting: SuckMyAvs

Is Edmonton minus RNH and Russel, plus Byram, Compher and Hoffman (maybe) as a UFA signing > Edmonton as they sit now.

Just because they can sign a replacement doesn't mean they should trade Nugent-Hopkins for less than fair value though. I think that's where you went wrong on this.

I'm going to vote DOA though, as I don't think Edmonton will move Nugent-Hopkins at all. I think he'll be re-signed by Christmas.

8 juill. 2020 à 15 h 31

#21

CD282

Rejoint: mars 2017

Messages: 24,091

Mentions "j'aime": 7,772

Quoting: Dan10900

Broberg's ceiling is similar to Byram's floor... and Broberg is a huge risk

Risk? From what I've read, Broberg's floor is pretty high. His skating ability basically makes him a lock for an NHL career.

Anus_McLeod a aimé ceci.

8 juill. 2020 à 15 h 37

#22

Anus_McLeod

Démarrer sujet

Rejoint: avr. 2020

Messages: 3,584

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Quoting: CD282

I get that, and it's not my intent to suggest it should be for less than fair value. It's just tough to value an expiring contract vs an ELC for one of the top prospects in hockey in a flat cap environment. I think values will shift a bit from where they traditionally have been. The other thing is that I am more focused on both teams getting better than who actually "wins" from a value perspective based on the sum of the players involved. That's not how I like to look at things.

FWIW, I agree that RNH will re-sign without much of an issue and the proposal would be DOA. I also don't think the Avs make this deal, as they'll sign Hall (or at least try), keep their prospects, and then call it a day. It's fun to explore the possibilities though.

CD282 a aimé ceci.

8 juill. 2020 à 16 h 17

#23

CD282

Rejoint: mars 2017

Messages: 24,091

Mentions "j'aime": 7,772

Quoting: SuckMyAvs

Nuge as a LW: BEAUTIFUL

Here are his 5v5 P/60 for each of the last 3 years when playing with Connor or Leo:

2017-18: 2.61 P/60
2018-19: 2.06
2019-20: 3.51
Total: 2.76 P/60

That 2.76 puts him 4th in the NHL over these 3 years, just ahead of Panarin (2.75) and Malkin (2.70). Only Kucherov (3.10), McDavid (2.95). Marchand (2.83) and Stamkos (2.80) produced more at 5v5.

Here are his splits between those two centers:

with McDavid: 2.31
with Draisaitl: 3.21

To put these numbers into context, 2.31 puts him 25th in the NHL over the past 3 years and tied with Barkov and Huberdeau, just ahead of Bergeron and Forberg who posted 2.30 P/60. His 3.21 P/60 with Draisaitl is unmatched over the past 3 years, Kucherov is the closest at 3.10 P/60.

It's interesting that Nugent-Hopkins has made Draisaitl better too, which is incredible when you consider most of the rest of the time Draisaitl played with McDavid.

Draisaitl's 5v5 P/60 with McDavid: 3.07 (1857:31 TOI in 3 seasons: 2017-20)
Draisaitl's 5v5 P/60 with Nugent-Hopkins: 3.68 (635:07 in 3 seasons: 2017-20)

Also, Nuge is excellent on the PK and the PP.

- of 86 forwards who played >100 minutes at 4v5 this year, Nugent-Hopkins was 10th best for shots against and 3rd best for goals against.
- of 186 forwards who played >100 minutes at 5v4 this year, Nugent-Hopkins was 22nd in expected goals for and 5th in actual goals.

Anus_McLeod a aimé ceci.

8 juill. 2020 à 16 h 20

#24

Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

Rejoint: janv. 2020

Messages: 8,370

Mentions "j'aime": 2,275

Quoting: SuckMyAvs

They can sign both unless you think they're getting $8M each or something. I don't think so though.

You really think Avs will have that much cap space after giving Makar a massive raise?

8 juill. 2020 à 16 h 28

#25

Anus_McLeod

Démarrer sujet

Rejoint: avr. 2020

Messages: 3,584

Mentions "j'aime": 3,444

Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

You really think Avs will have that much cap space after giving Makar a massive raise?

It's tight but I do think so. They may not get Makar for 8 years at that price, but I think they can do it. All players are going to get squeezed a bit.

MacKinnon 6,300,000
Landeskog 7,250,000
Rantanen 9,250,000
Kadri 4,500,000
Nichushkin 2,850,000
Burakovsky 4,850,000
RNH 7,250,000
Jost 1,500,000
Newhook 925,000
Bowers 925,000
LOC 750,000
Kaut 894,167
Kamenev 750,000
Graves 2,850,000
Makar 9,000,000
Girard 5,000,000
Johnson 6,000,000
Bro 925,000
Timmins 1,400,000
??? 750,000
Grubauer 5,000,000
Francouz 2,000,000

Total 80,919,167

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