SalarySwishSalarySwish
Avatar

EmailTruck

Membre depuis
17 mai 2024
Messages dans les forums
170
Messages par jour
3.5
Forum: Mock-Draft23 juin à 11 h 2
Sujet: The Storm is Settling
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Element23VM</b></div><div>My reasoning is that they should be drafting Demidov at 2 and they don't seem to agree with that.

Not sure I see Vlasic that highly... Solberg plays with a real mean streak, but yes, if they have Korchinski lined up for 1L, Vlasic for 2L, then I would be hesitant taking Solberg at 3L unless I just felt he was the most valuable player left. Let's be honest, though, I'm going to be utterly wrong anyway... but if I could take back that pick, I'd probably take Greentree or Parascak...

And Vegas probably takes Solberg</div></div>

JFreshHockey's stat card has Vlasic in the 51st percentile offensively, 94th defensively, and 88th overall. He just signed a 6 year, $4.6 million extension and that'll be fair value if he doesn't improve at all, but this was his first full season in the NHL and he's only 22. Vlasic led the team in 5v5 minutes last season without playing sheltered minutes. With Vlasic on the ice at 5v5, the Hawks were outscored 51-50. Without him on the ice at 5v5 (and including all empty net goals), the Hawks were outscored 186-89. It's hard to overstate how good Vlasic was last season. If he played one fewer game before this year, he'd be eligible for the Calder and would likely be a finalist.
Forum: Mock-Draft23 juin à 1 h 0
Sujet: The Storm is Settling
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quote:</div>If Chicago is building a team around Bedard, it's probably best to get started on getting the defensemen early and then starting to surround him with forward talent... Although I think they should really take Demidov and they're missing an opportunity... if they go with a Solberg type of player here, they could be a much tougher team to play against in 2-3 years time and be ready to compete.</div>

The Hawks already got started with defenseman early. Alex Vlasic was already one of the best shutdown defenders in the NHL last season at age 22 and is signed for six years. Kevin Korchinski was the youngest defender in the NHL last season and was taken at #7 in 2022. They both project as top-pairing LD. It's possible that they take Stolberg at #18 if they think he's the BPA, but your reasoning only makes sense for RD, because the Hawks already an elite young LD and an elite level LD prospect.
Forum: Armchair-GM21 juin à 14 h 22
Sujet: Realistic w Demidov
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bedsy_Burner</b></div><div>That could be interesting. Not sure both sides would be interested. I get the feeling CHI wants to start adding guys who are going to be here and be Blackhawks. But it is certainly possible. I know I would be all for it.</div></div>

I get that feeling too, but I just don't really understand it. At least at forward, we've got ten guys signed and prospects close to making the jump to the NHL. At RD, even Levshunov likely wouldn't make the NHL next season, there's nobody available in FA who it makes sense for the Hawks to sign to a long-term deal, Crevier doesn't really look like he's got a future in the NHL, and Rinzel and Allen both look at least a year away. There are guys we could give something like a 4x$4 million contract to, but (1) that player might ultimately end up blocking prospects and (2) there's always going to be guys you can sign for that kind of money. If we need to sign another RD anyway, why not try and use your cap space for a good defenseman?
Forum: Armchair-GM21 juin à 13 h 56
Sujet: Realistic w Demidov
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bedsy_Burner</b></div><div>I agree about Tanev and Domi. Although Domi could sign with CHI and still be around when we are good again, if that is worth anything to him. Tanev is kinda on his last chance to pick the right team and win a cup. As far as the Laine/Bedard, I don't think that is entirely true. Bedard is also a pretty phenomenal playmaker/passer. I am sure that as time goes and he gets even better, and he gets better players around him, we will see a whole lot more of that playmaking ability. A shooter like Laine could open up that part of Bedards game, as long as Laine is healthy, playing well, and isn't in the players assistance program. Kind of risky though with how up and down Laine has been. But for a 3rd and with only two years left on his deal, it could be worth a shot.</div></div>

I wonder if the Hawks could offer Tanev the chance to pick the right team later in the season. We could sign him to something like a 1 year, $7 million deal with the promise to trade him with 50% retention to any team willing to give a 7th round pick for him at the deadline. Teams would have to have just over $1 million of cap space for him, and not every team would want him at that point, but presumably most contenders would. On paper, to me at least, that's a win-win for the Hawks and Tanev; the Hawks get someone to help Korchinski's development without hurting the team in any way long-term and Tanev gets another playoff run in addition to a big contract.
Forum: Armchair-GM21 juin à 13 h 52
Sujet: Realistic w Demidov
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>zeropucksgiven04</b></div><div>Nazar isn't going to be playing wing + I highly doubt tanev signs he's cup chasing at this point so is Domi, The laine trade is interesting but ultimately not interesting enough bedard is a shoot first player don't need another shooter with him</div></div>

I imagine Nazar starts the year at center, but I think the Hawks are going to want the ability to move him to wing if he struggles at center.

It's certainly possible that Tanev and/or Domi are cup chasing or want a long-term deal, but the Hawks can overpay and promise to trade them at a deadline. I'd give Tanev and Domi (or another FA center) a bigger contract if that's what it takes as long as it's short-term. As for Laine, there are enough factors where I really have no idea what it would take to get him. A 3rd is about what I'd judge as fair, but it's certainly possible that that's not enough to get him. As for his fit with Bedard, it's not perfect, but there aren't a ton of 1st line wingers for Bedard who the Hawks could get on a short-term deal; I'd much rather have Laine and Hall as our top two left wings than Hall and Athanasiou.
Forum: Armchair-GM21 juin à 13 h 14
Sujet: Vancouver Canucks 2024-25 Roster
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mv21227</b></div><div>Mikheyev definitely would have some value with retention. Over his career he had a 40 point pace over 82 games, and is great defensively. In comparison to Donato, Mikheyev has a better PPG than Donato in 4 out of the 5 years he’s been in the league, and is significantly better defensively

At full salary he’s a cap dump yes, but with retention he’s definitely a positive asset. If the retention had his salary at 3M or less I think a team would give a decent pick for him</div></div>

I agree that Mikheyev has positive value with retention to bring him to his fair market salary; I just think his value is deflated in the offseason. I agree that Mikheyev is a slightly better player than Donato, but he's also more injury prone, to the point where Mikheyev has only one more point than Donato in each of the past three seasons. How much would you give up for Donato? The problem is that in the offseason defensively responsible players who can contribute 20 points are plentiful, so even if we're projecting Mikheyev to have 35 points that's only 15 points more than a replacement level player. I don't think I'd give more than 4th round pick for a 29-year-old forward with a career high of 32 points on a 2 year, $2.5 million dollar deal near the start of the offseason, and I would be surprised if a NHL GM would.
Forum: Armchair-GM21 juin à 12 h 45
Sujet: Vancouver Canucks 2024-25 Roster
I think the problem with your logic is that Mikheyev isn't really good enough to have value even with retention. The Hawks have Ryan Donato signed for 1 more year at $2 million. He's a 28 year old who has played 70+ games each of the past three seasons at just over a 30 point pace. Donato for $2 million is probably roughly as valuable as Mikheyev for $2.5-3 million-- slightly less upside but more consistency at a slightly cheaper pace. How much would you give up in a trade for Donato? I assume not much, because why would you give up any meaningful asset when you could just sign a comparable player in free agency? If the cap dump part of the deal requires a 2nd round pick and Mikheyev with retention could garner a 4th or 5th round pick, then together a 3rd round pick isn't enough to offload MIkheyev.
Forum: Armchair-GM21 juin à 11 h 53
Sujet: Lets give it another shot
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>svfsdv</b></div><div>No way the Leafs trading Marner for an overpaid D man. There's no value there for TO, Maybe for 50% retention. Maybe.</div></div>

Seth Jones at 50% retention is suddenly a very good contract. Fans of other teams don't understand just how good he was last year. The pairing of Seth Jones and Alex Vlasic (who played 21 NHL games before last year) played top line minutes for the Hawks last year and were outscored 51-50 at 5v5 on a team with a goal differential of -111. With $2 million retention, Jones is no longer overpaid. Marner isn't close to enough from the Hawks perspective. I believe you that the trade doesn't make sense for Toronto, but it definitely doesn't make sense for Chicago either.
Forum: Armchair-GM18 juin à 21 h 6
Sujet: Are these roughly fair
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>From what I've seen from CBJ fans. That is not fair in their mind. I did see a really good NYI CBJ trade that I think both sides would prefer.

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/852357?post_id=4998201

Guttman back to Tampa might be worth exploring. I won't be a mega deal, but their prospect pool is nil and they did at least like him at one point.</div></div>

I agree that that deal is much better for Columbus than mine, but given that Laine has a no move clause, Columbus might end up getting smaller offers than that. I wouldn’t really want to give much more than a 3rd for Laine, and if the Hawks are outbid, I’d accept that.

As for Guttman, he’s 25 now. I see his value for the Hawks mostly as a good AHL player who could come up to the NHL if we hit another injury bug with a small chance of being an NHL player. Maybe the Lightning are interested for those reasons, but I don’t really think he profiles as someone particularly beneficial to a specific team as opposed to providing more general utility.
Forum: Armchair-GM14 juin à 14 h 20
Sujet: Still think this is the best Marner trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GulagGary</b></div><div>Liljegren is projected at a bit over 2M. 3M if he goes to arb. Hawks fans being worried about such short term low money contracts like Kampf is hilarious.</div></div>

I was using AFPAnalytics' contract projections-- they project his contract at 1x$3.2 million or 4x$4.1 million. As for the Kampf-- clearly Leafs fans are worried about his contract, or they wouldn't be trying to trade him away. It wouldn't have a huge effect on the Hawks the next few seasons, but it would be a slight negative. I'm worried about the Kampf contract the same way I'd be worried about a 6th round pick if you proposed a trade of the Hawks' 6th round pick for a future 7th: relatively low stakes but not still worth considering.