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Forum: Armchair-GM14 juin à 13 h 42
Sujet: Chicago
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CakeEaterBanks</b></div><div>Marner game is based off his vision and hockey iq. Paired with Bedard his game won’t fall off for years.

Even jones game hasn’t fallen off. His game looks worse due to Chicago performance in the regular season. If he had the same performance on a top team would would taking about how he’s a top pairing minute logging dman. Jones is very similar to Pietrangelo.</div></div>

I agree that Jones' contract isn't the albatross many people think it is. I still think he's slightly overpaid, but the truth is that the average big free agent contracts looks a couple million dollars per year too much after a few years. My point is that in a few years we'll wish that Jones (or Marner) were cheaper, but neither will be worthy of a cap dump, and Marner's contract will likely feel similar to Jones'.
Forum: Armchair-GM14 juin à 13 h 35
Sujet: Keeping Marner Upgrading Defense
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>hockeynutter</b></div><div>Chicago needs to add salary to reach the floor as do other teams. And if they value Kampf and when it comes to late round picks trading high picks away makes no sense when Toronto can easily find other ways of clearing the spacem buying him out clears half his salary.
So trading high end picks when a buy out is just as easy and saves high end picks is ****. Also if teams are that fussy over Kampf where they want high end picks, easy trade Jarnkrok. No one can argue that teams would not want a middle 6 15 goal scorer and penalty killer for only 2.1 million.
Toronto does not need to trade Kampf as a cap dump. Everyone needs to stop viewing him as that.
Toronto traded Mrazek with a bigger contract without the rise in salary cap and teams looking to reach a high salary cap floor with a late first round pick for a high 2nd round pick.
Once again, Toronto if they are smart are not looking to offload Kampf as a salary dump but as a way to change their current picks to have future ammunition because this year they have many late round picks and like only 3 next year in rounds 5,6,7.

Getting future picks for their current current year picks is advantageous to them. For rebuilding teams current year picks offer more years more development thus a potential quicker rebuild.</div></div>

You're the person who suggested trading Kampf to the Hawks. It may well be the case that any trade that the Hawks or another team would take for Kampf is a bad deal for the Leafs compared to a buyout, but that doesn't mean the Hawks suddenly take Kampf for basically nothing; it means the Leafs buy him out.
Forum: Armchair-GM14 juin à 13 h 32
Sujet: Keeping Marner Upgrading Defense
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>hockeynutter</b></div><div>Yet Chicago took torontos late first and Mrazek for a current year high second. Leafs dropped maybe 12 slots for it. It was done because Chicago needed a goalie! Not Chicago needs to find players that they can easily bury or trade in the future whilst trying to be competitive and reach the cap floor where they will need to add over 10 million in contracts.
Chicago can't overpay for a player and have that players locked in too long. If Guentzel wants to sign somewhere with a better chance of winning, this hurts where Chicago gets salary.
This trade gives you a current pick which is more valuable than a future pick similar to that of Toronto only dropping like 12 slots. Chicago gets a player too to help with cap and as peeke proved this past year, at the deadline he is a tradeable asset for this year and next year to acquire more picks!</div></div>

First of all, the difference between a 2024 4th (in a weak draft class) and 2025 4th is very small. Whoever the Hawks would take in the 4th round won't be among their top 20 prospects after the draft. If you offered #23 and Kampf for #34 (similar to the trade in 2022), a difference which PuckPedia rates as equal to the #43, I'd accept that deal. Secondly, the Mrazek trade came at a time where the Hawks needed a goalie to eat some time in net; by next season the Hawks will have plenty of bottom six forwards. Most importantly, this is yet another time I'm seeing the sentiment that the Hawks need players to get to the cap floor. It's really really easy to get to the cap floor. There are a dozen teams with someone they'd trade for nothing, or the Hawks could offer someone like Jonathan Marchessault or Brett Pesce or Chris Tanev a 1 year, $10 million dollar contract to improve the team and hit the cap floor. We might consider a trade for Kampf in part because we're below the cap floor, but you don't get a discount for helping us hit the cap floor.
Forum: Armchair-GM14 juin à 13 h 21
Sujet: Know When to Fold Em
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MitchJr</b></div><div>John Tavares was pretty good last year too; and he only has one year left on his deal. But somehow cap friendly wouldn’t probably accept me trading him (with retention) for a 1st + prospects (unrealistic as it is given his NMC).
Jones has 6 years of being significantly overpaid - he is unmovable; not the first time a Leafs fan suggested a horrible trade on this site</div></div>

We just disagree on how valuable Seth Jones is then. If he were a free agent this year, I bet he'd get something around 6x$7 million. With $3 million retention, he's definitely not overpaid, and his contract term becomes a positive. As for Tavares, his age and having only one year left decreases his value if you were trading him with retention, but if you were retaining $3 million of his contract and a team could acquire 3 years of him at $8 million a year, even with his age, I'd say that would be worth a late first round pick.
Forum: Armchair-GM14 juin à 13 h 1
Sujet: Chicago
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CakeEaterBanks</b></div><div>None of those will be available on the Market and to your point Chicago is drafting Levshenyov. Jones replacement is there and younger and cheaper. Chicago needs players to surround Bedard and Marner would easily unlock his 60 goal potential by next year.</div></div>

Even if the Hawks draft Levshunov, he won't be in Chicago next season. The Hawks need 3 RD. Murphy is signed for two more years, but unlikely to come back after that. We've only got one right-handed defenseman in our top 20ish prospects-- Sam Rinzel-- and he's still a couple of years away. The Hawks need good players around Bedard, yes, but they also need good players around Alex Vlasic, Kevin Korchinski, and whoever of Wyatt Kaiser/Ethan Del Mastro/Nolan Allen is in Chicago at any given point next season. I'd argue that, for next year, RD is a more important position for the development of the future of the Hawks than RW. It's also going to be harder to find a top-pairing RD than a top-pairing RW in free agency.

Also, if we trade for Marner we're going to have to give him something like a 8x$12 million deal. It's odd to say that Jones' replacement will be cheaper when proposing a trade where the Hawks tget the more expensive players with longer term.
Forum: Armchair-GM14 juin à 10 h 44
Sujet: Next season only shot or else its over
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quote:</div>Also [The Hawks] were signing players to hit the cap floor last season, they have no intention of maknig the playoffs next season, so why not take in a second and a C tier prospect for some cap dump</div>

I've seen this sentiment a few different times on a few different posts. (1) This is likely the last year where the Hawks still need to work to hit the cap floor; they won't want bad multi-year deals any more than other teams. (2) Plenty of teams need cap space, and plenty of teams have cap space to spare. If the Oilers are only offering a future 2nd round pick and C-level prospect for a 3x$5 million contract, somebody else in the league will make a better cap dump offer. Just because the Hawks need to hit the cap floor doesn't mean you don't have to pay fair market value for your cap dumps.
Forum: Armchair-GM14 juin à 10 h 38
Sujet: I dont even like the Hawks but this is fun
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SelfAwareAnnoyingTorontoFan</b></div><div>Points taken, curious why Reichel's leash is so long after being mediocre despite given plenty of opportunities</div></div>

Reichel was 21 all of last season, will be 22 all of next season. He had a disappointing year this year, but had 15 points in 23 games in 22-23 as a twenty-year-old and has averaged nearly a point per game in Rockford over the past three seasons. He's only spent a large proportion of the season in the NHL once. If you want an example of giving someone a long leash, the Hawks brought back Philipp Kurashev last year for his age 24 season despite his age 21-23 seasons producing 24.3, 25.7, and 29.3 points per 82 games, respectively. That was a good decision, as Kurashev accounted for 59.7 points per 82 games last season. Getting rid of a 22-year-old with potential because he's only gotten 32 points in 99 NHL games between age 19-21 would be foolish.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 juin à 12 h 35
Sujet: Z for 2 overall
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GiggywithGibby</b></div><div>Zegras isn't enough to move down one spot? You cannot be serious.

The only way Anaheim is trading Zegras for 2OA is if the pick attached to Zegras is 31st OA, not 3rd.</div></div>

It all depends on how the Hawks evaluate the top prospects and who the Hawks think Anaheim will pick. Assuming the Hawks are certain Anaheim is taking Levyshunov, then if Davidson thinks Demidov is better than Levyshunov, then of course Zegras is enough. If the Sharks take Demidov (which obviously won't happen), Zegras wouldn't be enough to go from Celibrini to Levyshunov. If Davidson has Levyshunov and Demidov rater similarly, then Zegras should be enough. If Levyshunov is rated as a perennial Norris candidate and Demidov (or whoever they have at #3) as a 75 point winger then I don't think that Zegras, coming off a down year and who will be highly paid for the rest of his career, would be enough.

To be clear: Zegras isn't enough only if the Hawks rate Levyshunov as far above their 3rd best prospect. I would take this trade in a heartbeat.
Forum: Armchair-GM9 juin à 13 h 55
Sujet: One more year of cap dumps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Byrr</b></div><div>Leafs aren't going to be dumping Tavares, they don't have another option at 2C.

Tavares isn't waiving his NMC to be cap dumped, it would sewer any negotiating leverage he has for his next contract the following the season.</div></div>

A quarter of the league has some form of NMC now. It doesn't necessarily make sense for Tavares to waive his NMC, but maybe he wants to play with Bedard or likes Chicago or is just done in Toronto. For the sake of these, I just assume that every player would waive their NMC, because I have no way of knowing who would and who wouldn't. As for Toronto not having a #2 center, they'd have $11 million more cap space. Steven Stamkos is from near Toronto, played better than Tavares last season, and should be a few million dollars per year cheaper. If Toronto isn't interested in Stamkos or don't think they could sign him I agree that this trade makes less sense.
Forum: Armchair-GM9 juin à 11 h 21
Sujet: Bands on the Run
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hawksguy81</b></div><div>Think I'm going to disagree w/ that second part of your argument. That other $4.5m over 3 years for Skinner is close to "full cap dump value" to me. Skinner at $4.5m is a fair contract. Maybe somewhat of a bargain. Skinner at $9m is very overpaid. Would the Hawks take a pure cap dump of 3x$4.5m to move up from 18 to 11 and a 2nd? I don't think they would. I think it takes more than that. Ask yourself this? Are you taking the last 3 years of Campbell from Edmonton to move up 7 spots to #11 and a 2nd?</div></div>

I don't think it's far off. Last offseason, we took a future 2nd to acquire Josh Bailey, who we promptly bought out. His contract was $5 million, but because of the buyout we only took a $3.8 million cap hit. Last offseason, the salary cap was $83.5 million; it's $88 million now and projected at $92 million next year, so I'm expecting that the cost to dump a contract is going to be slightly cheaper. If Edmonton offered 3 2nd round picks to take Skinner, I'd consider that fair-- I'd prefer a bit more back, but I wouldn't think it's a bad deal for the Hawks. I personally don't think I'd give up 2 2nd round picks to move from #18 to #11 either, but the Puckpedia calculator has that as nearly fair, too-- perfectly even if Buffalo tossed in their 4th and the last pick of the draft this year. I'm at about the same place on Campbell-- I'd want a little bit more than that, but I don't think it's a bad trade from the Hawks' perspective.

But the Hawks have cap space to use, and there's no benefit to letting it go to waste. I don't love Guentzel, and I don't really buy that the Hawks go after him. I don't think we could get Guentzel. I think it's more likely that we sign players at the caliber of Max Domi or Alexander Wennerberg for 2-3 years at $4-5 million per year. If there are other, better cap dumps for the Hawks, I'm happy to take the better deal, but if the choice is taking the Skinner contract or signing two players for $4-5 million per year, I'd rather the former.
Forum: Armchair-GM9 juin à 10 h 49
Sujet: Bands on the Run
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SociallyHawkward</b></div><div>I'd take option 3 all day. I wouldn't take skinner at all. He adds nothing of value to the team. Best case scenario is he maybe scores 30 goals once in the next 3 seasons and the other 2 seasons will be terrible. He's never won anything.</div></div>

It’s not particularly likely the Hawks do much in the playoffs in the next three seasons, with or without Skinner. He’d be overpaid for three years, but by 26-27 hopefully Catton/Eiserman/Yakemchuk is starting to contribute at a rookie salary. Beyond that, I think Catton/Eiserman/Yakemchuk is likely both better and cheaper than Guentzel in 5-6 years. Necas vs. Skinner depends in part on your envisioned timeline, but I’d take option 1 over option 2 for sure.