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Vancouver Canucks 2024-25 Roster

Créé par: hnlnz
Équipe: 2024-25 Canucks de Vancouver
Date de création initiale: 21 juin 2024
Publié: 21 juin 2024
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
THOUGHT #1
Canucks DON'T need to include a 2nd round pick in a Mikheyev trade. Please let me know if my logic is incorrect.

OA = Overall
TV = Trade Value

If Mikheyev is worth 0.00M AAV:
4.75M AAV = 21 OA (Canucks pay 1st round pick)

If Mikheyev is worth 2.00M AAV:
Mikheyev's worth = 2.00M AAV = 37 OA = 106.22 TV
Cap space worth = 2.75M AAV = 31 OA = 138.80 TV
Difference = 106.22 TV - 138.80 TV = -32.58 TV = 67OA (Canucks pay 3rd round pick)

If Mikheyev is worth 2.50M AAV:
Mikheyev's worth = 2.50M AAV = 33 OA = 126.90 TV
Cap space worth = 2.25M AAV = 35 OA = 116.07 TV
Difference = 126.90 TV - 116.07 TV = 10.83 TV = 104 OA (Canucks receive 4th round pick)

If Mikheyev is worth 3.00M AAV:
Mikheyev's worth = 3.00M AAV = 29 OA = 151.85 TV
Cap space worth = 1.75M AAV = 40 OA = 93.12 TV
Difference = 151.85 TV - 93.12 TV = 58.73 TV = 51OA (Canucks receive 2nd round pick)

Mikheyev's last 3 seasons:
31/78 = 33 pt pace
28/46 = 50 pt pace
32/53 = 50 pt pace

There is a saying that every 10 pts is 1M AAV. 30 pt player = 3M AAV. Further, Mikheyev is a two-way player, which means he also has defensive value. He also has good corsi. The cap is also rising, which means AAV's are lower than they seem. In my opinion, Mikheyev is worth at least 2.5M AAV.

It seems to me like people are not factoring in that Mikheyev has value. They are only factoring in that cap space has value.

I do acknowledge though that the above argument only factors in player and cap space value. There are other factors that matter, like fit. Mikheyev doesn't fit on competitive teams, because (at least 16) competitive teams are looking to maximize their cap space. The other teams know this and can leverage this against the Canucks to lower Mikheyev's value.

Puck Pedia Salary Cap Relief Calculator
https://puckpedia.com/CapRelief?cap_relief_team=vancouver-canucks&cap_relief_player=17936

Draft Pick Value Chart
https://soundofhockey.com/2022/06/06/examining-the-value-of-nhl-draft-picks/

THOUGHT #2
I believe Filip Hronek can carry his own pairing.

Don't get me wrong, I loved the Hughes-Hronek pairing (1+1=3). I think Hronek has more offence in him, but playing with Hughes made him focus more on being solid on D, since Hughes was the main driver of offence. If Hronek plays with a shutdown D, I think he can focus on driving offence and create 2 pairings that are dangerous offensively. I would still play Hughes-Hronek together during certain situations (e.g., icings).

Contracts based on AFPAnalytics NHL Contract Projections 2024-2025
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JPtGk5m_S9VuR5e7T8lb_BlilXRwJPF0V2ddQzjjpvc/edit?gid=0#gid=0
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
21 060 000 $
UFAANSCAP HIT
23 000 000 $
21 400 000 $
23 200 000 $
32 900 000 $
22 200 000 $
79 700 000 $
Transactions
VAN
    FC
    SJS
    1. Mikheyev, Ilya
    Rachats de contrats
    Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
    2024
    Logo de VAN
    Logo de VAN
    Logo de VAN
    Logo de SJS
    Logo de VAN
    2025
    Logo de VAN
    Logo de VAN
    Logo de VAN
    Logo de VAN
    Logo de VAN
    Logo de VAN
    2026
    Logo de VAN
    Logo de VAN
    Logo de VAN
    Logo de VAN
    Logo de VAN
    TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
    2388 000 000 $87 981 667 $0 $0 $18 333 $

    Formation

    Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
    Guentzel, Jake
    9 700 000 $9 700 000 $
    AG, AD
    UFA - 7
    Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
    Pettersson, Elias
    11 600 000 $11 600 000 $
    C, AG
    UFA - 8
    Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
    Höglander, Nils
    1 100 000 $1 100 000 $
    AG, AD
    RFA - 1
    Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
    Suter, Pius
    1 600 000 $1 600 000 $
    C, AG
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
    Miller, J.T.
    8 000 000 $8 000 000 $
    C, AG, AD
    NMC
    UFA - 6
    Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
    Boeser, Brock
    6 650 000 $6 650 000 $
    AD
    UFA - 1
    Heinen, Danton
    2 900 000 $2 900 000 $
    AG, AD
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
    Blueger, Teddy
    2 200 000 $2 200 000 $
    C, AG
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
    Garland, Conor
    4 950 000 $4 950 000 $
    AD, AG
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
    Di Giuseppe, Phillip
    775 000 $775 000 $
    AG
    UFA - 1
    Stenlund, Kevin
    1 400 000 $1 400 000 $
    C, AD
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
    Podkolzin, Vasily
    1 000 000 $1 000 000 $
    AD, AG
    RFA - 2
    Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
    Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
    Hughes, Quinn
    7 850 000 $7 850 000 $
    DG
    UFA - 3
    Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
    Juulsen, Noah
    775 000 $775 000 $
    DD
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
    Demko, Thatcher
    5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
    G
    UFA - 2
    Dillon, Brenden
    3 000 000 $3 000 000 $
    DG
    UFA - 3
    Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
    Hronek, Filip
    7 250 000 $7 250 000 $
    DD
    UFA - 8
    Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
    Exempté du ballottageSilovs, Arturs
    1 060 000 $1 060 000 $
    G
    RFA
    Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
    Soucy, Carson
    3 250 000 $3 250 000 $
    DG/DD
    NTC
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
    Myers, Tyler
    3 200 000 $3 200 000 $
    DD
    UFA - 3
    Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
    Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
    Åman, Nils
    825 000 $825 000 $
    C
    RFA - 2
    Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
    Poolman, Tucker
    2 500 000 $2 500 000 $
    DD
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
    Exempté du ballottageKarlsson, Linus
    775 000 $775 000 $
    AD
    RFA - 1
    Logo de Canucks de Vancouver
    Friedman, Mark
    775 000 $775 000 $
    DG/DD
    UFA - 1

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    21 juin à 12 h 27
    #1
    remowilliams
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    Canucks pass. Were not giving Mik away.we can trade him with retention or just keep him.IMHO.
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    21 juin à 12 h 33
    #2
    alwaysnextyear
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    Solid description.

    Thought 1: I don't disagree that Mikheyev has some value, and I'm willing to bet we'd see a bit of a bounce-back if he stays on the roster next season. He's fast and solid on the defensive side of the puck. In a vacuum your calculations make sense on his value, but... the market knows that VAN wants to dump him so they can re-allocate that money. They've played their hand, so teams will try to get an asset included in any deal he's involved in. It was the same talk with Garland last offseason; he hadn't lived up to his contract the year before and was therefore a 'negative value' asset in a cap world. Luckily, the team saw his value, kept him, and he bounced back in a big way. This offseason is different though. The team overshot expectations and now they're more willing to go "big game" hunting to get even better. So they may not have the patience to keep Mikheyev around and hope he pulls a Garland.

    Thought 2: Completely agree! If this team wants to make a jump to true contender status, having Hronek carry his own pairing would be a huge step. We know Hughes can just about play with anybody and make them better. It would be awesome to see a bit of that from Hronek on the 2nd pair. I think he would do well with either Soucy or Zadorov (if he extends).
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    21 juin à 12 h 39
    #3
    OfftheHos
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    Does Dillon sign for only 3 million? Seems like he'd get closer to 4.
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    21 juin à 12 h 45
    #4
    EmailTruck
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    I think the problem with your logic is that Mikheyev isn't really good enough to have value even with retention. The Hawks have Ryan Donato signed for 1 more year at $2 million. He's a 28 year old who has played 70+ games each of the past three seasons at just over a 30 point pace. Donato for $2 million is probably roughly as valuable as Mikheyev for $2.5-3 million-- slightly less upside but more consistency at a slightly cheaper pace. How much would you give up in a trade for Donato? I assume not much, because why would you give up any meaningful asset when you could just sign a comparable player in free agency? If the cap dump part of the deal requires a 2nd round pick and Mikheyev with retention could garner a 4th or 5th round pick, then together a 3rd round pick isn't enough to offload MIkheyev.
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    21 juin à 12 h 56
    #5
    hnlnz
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    Quoting: remowilliams
    Canucks pass. Were not giving Mik away.we can trade him with retention or just keep him.IMHO.


    I would like to trade him because I don't think he's worth his cap hit.
    21 juin à 12 h 58
    #6
    hnlnz
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    Quoting: alwaysnextyear
    Solid description.

    Thought 1: I don't disagree that Mikheyev has some value, and I'm willing to bet we'd see a bit of a bounce-back if he stays on the roster next season. He's fast and solid on the defensive side of the puck. In a vacuum your calculations make sense on his value, but... the market knows that VAN wants to dump him so they can re-allocate that money. They've played their hand, so teams will try to get an asset included in any deal he's involved in. It was the same talk with Garland last offseason; he hadn't lived up to his contract the year before and was therefore a 'negative value' asset in a cap world. Luckily, the team saw his value, kept him, and he bounced back in a big way. This offseason is different though. The team overshot expectations and now they're more willing to go "big game" hunting to get even better. So they may not have the patience to keep Mikheyev around and hope he pulls a Garland.

    Thought 2: Completely agree! If this team wants to make a jump to true contender status, having Hronek carry his own pairing would be a huge step. We know Hughes can just about play with anybody and make them better. It would be awesome to see a bit of that from Hronek on the 2nd pair. I think he would do well with either Soucy or Zadorov (if he extends).


    Thank you. Yeah the market might play a bigger factor than I'd like in a Mikheyev trade.
    21 juin à 13 h 0
    #7
    mv21227
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    Quoting: EmailTruck
    I think the problem with your logic is that Mikheyev isn't really good enough to have value even with retention. The Hawks have Ryan Donato signed for 1 more year at $2 million. He's a 28 year old who has played 70+ games each of the past three seasons at just over a 30 point pace. Donato for $2 million is probably roughly as valuable as Mikheyev for $2.5-3 million-- slightly less upside but more consistency at a slightly cheaper pace. How much would you give up in a trade for Donato? I assume not much, because why would you give up any meaningful asset when you could just sign a comparable player in free agency? If the cap dump part of the deal requires a 2nd round pick and Mikheyev with retention could garner a 4th or 5th round pick, then together a 3rd round pick isn't enough to offload MIkheyev.


    Mikheyev definitely would have some value with retention. Over his career he had a 40 point pace over 82 games, and is great defensively. In comparison to Donato, Mikheyev has a better PPG than Donato in 4 out of the 5 years he’s been in the league, and is significantly better defensively

    At full salary he’s a cap dump yes, but with retention he’s definitely a positive asset. If the retention had his salary at 3M or less I think a team would give a decent pick for him
    21 juin à 13 h 1
    #8
    hnlnz
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    Quoting: OfftheHos
    Does Dillon sign for only 3 million? Seems like he'd get closer to 4.


    Based on AFPAnalytics Contract Projections, yes.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JPtGk5m_S9VuR5e7T8lb_BlilXRwJPF0V2ddQzjjpvc/edit#gid=0

    It does seem low though since his previous cap hit was 3.9M.
    21 juin à 13 h 14
    #9
    EmailTruck
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    Quoting: mv21227
    Mikheyev definitely would have some value with retention. Over his career he had a 40 point pace over 82 games, and is great defensively. In comparison to Donato, Mikheyev has a better PPG than Donato in 4 out of the 5 years he’s been in the league, and is significantly better defensively

    At full salary he’s a cap dump yes, but with retention he’s definitely a positive asset. If the retention had his salary at 3M or less I think a team would give a decent pick for him


    I agree that Mikheyev has positive value with retention to bring him to his fair market salary; I just think his value is deflated in the offseason. I agree that Mikheyev is a slightly better player than Donato, but he's also more injury prone, to the point where Mikheyev has only one more point than Donato in each of the past three seasons. How much would you give up for Donato? The problem is that in the offseason defensively responsible players who can contribute 20 points are plentiful, so even if we're projecting Mikheyev to have 35 points that's only 15 points more than a replacement level player. I don't think I'd give more than 4th round pick for a 29-year-old forward with a career high of 32 points on a 2 year, $2.5 million dollar deal near the start of the offseason, and I would be surprised if a NHL GM would.
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    21 juin à 13 h 14
    #10
    hnlnz
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    Quoting: EmailTruck
    I think the problem with your logic is that Mikheyev isn't really good enough to have value even with retention. The Hawks have Ryan Donato signed for 1 more year at $2 million. He's a 28 year old who has played 70+ games each of the past three seasons at just over a 30 point pace. Donato for $2 million is probably roughly as valuable as Mikheyev for $2.5-3 million-- slightly less upside but more consistency at a slightly cheaper pace. How much would you give up in a trade for Donato? I assume not much, because why would you give up any meaningful asset when you could just sign a comparable player in free agency? If the cap dump part of the deal requires a 2nd round pick and Mikheyev with retention could garner a 4th or 5th round pick, then together a 3rd round pick isn't enough to offload MIkheyev.


    I don't know that much about Donato, but this is his cap relief worth:
    https://puckpedia.com/CapRelief?cap_relief_team=chicago-blackhawks&cap_relief_player=6089

    If his worth is equal to his contract, I think he's worth a 52nd OA pick (low 2nd round pick).

    I think 2.0M of cap space is worth a 52 OA pick because a player worth 2.0M is worth a 52 OA pick. Basically, cap space has value because of players that fill that cap space have value.
    21 juin à 13 h 14
    #11
    OrganizedConfusion55
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    San jose rejects.
    21 juin à 13 h 19
    #12
    hnlnz
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    Quoting: EmailTruck
    I agree that Mikheyev has positive value with retention to bring him to his fair market salary; I just think his value is deflated in the offseason. I agree that Mikheyev is a slightly better player than Donato, but he's also more injury prone, to the point where Mikheyev has only one more point than Donato in each of the past three seasons. How much would you give up for Donato? The problem is that in the offseason defensively responsible players who can contribute 20 points are plentiful, so even if we're projecting Mikheyev to have 35 points that's only 15 points more than a replacement level player. I don't think I'd give more than 4th round pick for a 29-year-old forward with a career high of 32 points on a 2 year, $2.5 million dollar deal near the start of the offseason, and I would be surprised if a NHL GM would.


    Good point, the offseason factor is another factor I didn't take into account but it could matter, since free agency is near.
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    21 juin à 13 h 41
    #13
    EmailTruck
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    Quoting: hnlnz
    Good point, the offseason factor is another factor I didn't take into account but it could matter, since free agency is near.


    In September if the Hawks have struck out on their forward targets or early in the season if a member of the top six is out for an extended period, then maybe the Hawks would be interested in Mikheyev for less than a 2nd. But, at that point, it's unclear why Vancouver would make that trade because presumably there's nobody better available to sign.
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    21 juin à 14 h 6
    #14
    remowilliams
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    Quoting: hnlnz
    I would like to trade him because I don't think he's worth his cap hit.


    I agree but teams dont just give players away.May not be a great return but we will get a return.IMHO.
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    21 juin à 14 h 57
    #15
    hnlnz
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    Quoting: remowilliams
    I agree but teams dont just give players away.May not be a great return but we will get a return.IMHO.


    Yeah hopefully we can get something.
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    21 juin à 18 h 56
    #16
    vols94
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    You are up agaisnt the cap with the players you want to sign. If you get guentzel then the price to dump Mikhevey goes up. if you could FC him away coffee boy Allvin would have already done it. 2x4.7M for a 31 pts player is not moving for free. If you get too smart then the SJ and chicago absorb the dumps they are going to take and you have no where to move him
     
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