CBJ say no by a mile

I say no!

Jackets, easily

Why? Jenner is 30, age where power-forwards decline. His career high in points is 49....
Mittelstadt had 59 points last year and is on pace for almost 70 this year. Not to mention he's only 25.
I think CBJ fans are overvaluing Jenner a lot...

Jenner is a rare defensive-minded, faceoff-winning, goal-scoring machine who, despite being regularly hurt (this year was a fluky broken jaw) is generally a lock to score at a 25-30 goal pace and 40-50 point pace while doing the other things, and the organization loves him/he's the captain.

Mittelstadt is a one-dimensional offensive talent, who is primarily a playmaker (a decent one) but not a play-driver. He doesn't play a great two-way game, and doesn't score a lot of goals. That's not as difficult a player to find as a Jenner-type. He's finally having a true breakout season during a contract year. What's his next contract going to look like, $6M?

Hockeyreference has them at remarkably similar xGF differentials, but Mittelstadt gets the edge in on-ice shot differential. Jenner's career FO% is almost 10% higher than Mittelstadt, both have similar SH% and Casey has the lower ATOI.

What it boils down to is this: they're both decent 2Cs better suited as a 3C/3W with two totally different playstyles. One is a well-rounded known quantity and your captain on a cheap deal with 2 more years that the organization values extremely highly (re: "overvalued"), but is likely to decline soon. One is an unknown quantity playmaker who is probably going to demand significantly more than Jenner in the offseason after a breakout couple of years that may not be sustainable, he may improve; he may sustain; he may fall off a cliff. If he falls off a cliff, you're stuck with an expensive bottom-6 winger (yes, winger) who plays a top-6 game (re: "buyout candidate").

Jenner's a known quantity that will decline soon, but is still extremely valuable internally and externally. Mittelstadt is a buy-high candidate with high-risk and low-reward at the price. I think it's a "devil you know" situation, and Columbus passes.

I'd think Buffalo says no.

To add to this if the jackets trade Jenner it should be for futures or someone who has a lot of team control. Mitts essentially has one year left after this and is going to want big money that the jackets can’t afford

This is mitts last year of his contract so I think it would be presumed that whoever trades for him would have an extension in place

Brilliant analysis. Utterly brilliant. And, in my opinion, unbiased.

Maybe BOTH teams tbh,
which probably means it’s reasonable but not probable