Change Ylonen, who has no value to Winnipeg, to Beck or Barron and you should be competitive.

Better stats than Raty at the time, this is a comparison. You're actually getting more than Horvat got back for a at the moment worse player. His age may make this even, it may not.

The Jets will get more at the trade deadline. Dvorak is an overpaid 3rd line center and Ylonen has zero value to the Jets.

Unfortunately,

Raty is younger and better than Ylonen and Beauviller is far better than Dvorak and not seriously injured. There's no reason for Winnipeg to take less than Horvat got for a younger, better player.

Ylonen is not comparable to Raty. Ylonen was drafted in 2018, Raty was drafted in 2021. Ylonen is a winger, Raty is a C. Raty put up better numbers in the SM-liiga as a 19 year old than Ylonen did as a 21 year old. You’re looking at someone like Beck/Mesar/Barron/Kidney as a Raty comparable instead of Ylonen

Dubois is not better than Horvat.

Middle of the line 60 point 2C. Has been brutal in the playoffs so far and is a whiny baby about where he wants to play. Nobody is going to be jumping at a chance to throw their assets at him, and Montreal can just wait him out.

I don’t know where you get your logic from but it’s beyond off the grid. I’d like the phone number of your drug dealer because he’s selling you some grade A stuff man.

AB is a lot better than Dvorak

Lol. Dubois averages 57 pts a season to Horvat's 55 and doing it while he is 3 years younger. Try and park the bias and be objective.

You seem to leave out the phenomenal season at which Horvat was scoring at an insane rate the same year he was traded. Context, Windjammer, use context. He never would have been moved for as big of a package as he did if he was still scoring at his 50+ point pace.

I recall being on CF years ago (on a different account of course) when Laine was on the verge of being moved, and you had the same attitude with him as you have Dubois. Can’t wait for you to be wrong TWICE.

You're the man for this! I looked into this the exact same way and came to the same conclusion of you - but I knew it would trigger Jets fans so I didn't post it hahaha... here are the comparisons to support your claim:

---------------------------------------------------
Dubois (Age: 24-302d)
- 434 GP, 129 G, 173 A, 302 P (0.696 P/GP)

Horvat (Age: 28-017d)
- 651 GP, 208 G, 228 A, 436 P (0.670 P/GP)

Horvat was traded for Beauvillier, NYI 2023 1st Round Pick (18th overall), and Raty.

1. NYI 2023 1st (18th overall) ~= FLA 2023 1st (17th overall)

2. Beauvillier ~= Dvorak

Beauvillier (Age: 25-318d)
- 457 GP, 102 G, 107 A, 209 P (0.457 P/GP)

Dvorak (Age: 27-079d)
- 422 GP, 88 G, 119 A, 207 P (0.491 P/GP)

3. Raty ~= Ylonen

Raty (Age: 20-159d, 52nd Overall in 2021)
- AHL: 52 GP, 9 G, 18 A, 27 P (0.519 P/GP)
- NHL: 15 GP, 2 G, 1 A, 3 P (0.2 P/GP)

Ylonen (Age: 23-201d, 35th Overall in 2018)
- AHL: 120 GP, 34 G, 51 A, 85 P (0.708 P/GP)
- NHL: 52 GP, 8 G, 13 A, 21 P (0.404 P/GP)

------------------------------------------------------

Now it's fair to suggest that Raty is a better prospect than Ylonen only because he likely has more potential (IF he can realize it).

A few things to counter some reaches by Jets fans.

1. Raty is a C which is more valuable than Ylonen a W.
- Ok... so your also saying Dvorak is more valuable than Beauvillier for that same reason then? Not to mention Dvorak is more productive.

2. Dubois is more valuable than Horvat.
- It's actually pretty close, Horvat was traded during a career year though and his value has never been higher, and there also wasn't a limited market for his services.

3. Dvorak is worse than Beauvillier
- Sorry but the numbers don't lie, Dvorak plays a position of more value, and is more productive. The only valid criticism of Dvorak is he just had a surgery, but none of us are in the know when it comes to his medical situation.

Bottom line is, if this offer isn't bang on for the value of Dubois - it is extremely close.

The Jets would take nothing less (I've seen some pretty bad trade proposals on here), but MTL will not be offering much more than this for a player they could likely get for free in another year (nobody is paying more than this for a rental either - the Islanders paid this for Horvat and signed him to an extension immediately).

The ideas of 1st + Mesar / Beck / Barron + x + y are too much... I would like to think Hughes is smart enough not to do that.

point is, the Isles paid what they paid for Horvat who at the time was a player multiple teams were vying to get. His value at the time is higher than Dubois right now. To get an identical deal is as close to fair as I can get. I would change Ylonen to Mesar, and heck I'd gladly add in Hoffman who has played better than Dvo at 50% retained. So we continue the hypotheticals because we don't know squat until it happens

@Windjammer Park your bias and be objective.

preach!

Probably have to swap Ylonen to Kidney

See. You used too much logic. The bias Jets fans will now block you.

good thought. I don't see Kidney making the Habs, so I'd totally do it. Him, Mesar and Ylonen are in a similar category of just outside the top guys. He's more comparable to Raty.

Ylonen does nothing for the jets so he would need to be swapped with either mesar or Kidney. Ylonen is already 23 and likely isn't much more than a bottom 6 player (ie armia 2.0). So that swap would need to be made for the jets to accept. It's not about getting the best deal possible but a deal that works for both and not screwing the other team over.

Yeah exactly what I had as a base trade was mesar and the florida 1st. Obviously cap would come back and potentially one more small pick or prospect would really seal the deal

2023 1st mesar Dvorak and a 5th?

Its widely known that Lou was trying to move Beau for a year and his term made him a negative asset. He was a throw-in to make the money work. You are being intelectually dishonest to suggest otherwise. Dvorak being a center that wins draws makes him even at this point in a down season more valuable than a struggling AB at the time of the trade.

I do agree with you on some points here:

If dubois will only extend in Montreal, it will limit the return jets will get for him. Horvat is an ok trade comparison though he is a fair amount older and had up to his miraculous UFA season been a 55ish point player. From a production standpoint, they arent far off.

Ylonen i would say has less value than Raty. Their production for their first year ahl is pretty similar. Contract and years of control add value to raty though. He still has 2 years of his ELC whereas Ylonen's just ended.

Based.

The fact that he is so arrogant after being so so wrong then, blows my mind.
It just showed every member around CF here that he's out of touch from reality and will shift the goal posts every time with no accountability. Hes a cancer.

agreed. Kidney and Mesar are more comparable. I've added a variation with Kidney.

He's already flagging posts left and right, i see them disappearing. absolute looney tunes.

That's what you get with basement-dwelling nerds who grow up sheltered.

Possibly, the prospect part is really the only part that I feel is highly up for debate.

I think Mesar is off the table, they just selected him in the 1st Round, he had a really good camp but a weird junior season. I think they'd like to see it through.

Kidney is probably a pretty fair ask, I would prefer not to trade him but it's a good comparison to Raty likely.

The thing I don't get about the Ylonen criticism "bottom 6" is that it's honestly Raty's projection. He projects to be a 3C, Ylonen would likely play 3RW for the Jets (or habs) next season - so similar to Raty just 3 years ahead in development. People point to Raty's Liiga production as a sign that he has high offensive upside, but the production came with a change in teams and lots of players have produced in Liiga without it translating to NHL (Jets should know, Vesalainen). So far in a small sample size, it has not translated as his AHL and NHL production is underwhelming.

Anyways, back to Ylonen... the habs could also throw in Kapenen who could be a mitigation if Ylonen doesn't work out. He projects similar to Ylonen and Raty, but he is years away.

By the way, I seen your other post that had the framework for the deal as FLA 1st + Mesar + ? , but I prefer to look at it as:

FLA 1st + Dvorak + Prospect?

For me the dealbreaker will be what is the Jets ask for a prospect.