31 mars 2018
Jets de Winnipeg
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood</b></div><div>So Copp is a better defensive player but he's been on the ice for more goals against than Kerfoot, and his high danger scoring chance for % is 45 while Kerfoot's is 55. Looks like Kerfoot is better defensively but this is capfriendly so everyone player on any team is better than Leaf depth players especially defensively because fans say so without really having any idea whats actually happening.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood</b></div><div>Because Jets fans say so. He is hardly a high end defensive player. He's just a depth player who has gotten a fair amount of points the past 2 years. He's not all that special and there will be as many sellers and buyers this year, maybe more sellers you aren't getting insane prices just because you want to and make up reasons with zero evidence to support them.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood</b></div><div>Cherry picking stats but leaving out the big ones. Typical. Copp allows more chances against than Kerfoot and way more of the high danger variety. Not optimal for a top defensive player. So your whole statement of PK time is nonsense and at evens Copp grades out much worse.
But let's talk about the PK because this one is really good. TO has the 4th best PK and Winnipeg has the 29th best PK, so Copp is definitely not doing great work on the 4th worst PK in the league.
What's the moral here? Once again everyone on cap friendly sees all the Leaf players outside their core for and top 3 defenceman as AHLers, and all depth players on bad teams are all superstars in comparison. Unfortunately it's never really the case. Copp is less than Kerfoot.</div></div>
Cherry picking the exact stats that would be impacted based on the situation Copp plays c’s the situations kerfoot plays in. Copp plays against the other teams’ best. They are bound to get their chances. Kerfoot on the other hand, plays against 3rd lines. How about you look at a quality of competition chart or something useful like that to put other stats into context.
The jets PK was absolutely abysmal before maurice left. However, either way Copp was one of the only bright spots. He would be playing top PK time on most teams. I don’t have stats to back me up there because you can’t, but you will just have to watch a jets game.
As I said, I don’t think kerfoot is not valuable. He is. He’s worth what high end 3rd liners are worth. A 3rd + and good prospect or a 2nd. However, copp is worth at least a 1st. Just look at the market for Coleman for example. That’s the best comparable available.
When kerfoot is playing the same amount and type of minutes that Copp is playing, then you can make the claim that kerfoot is a better or equal player.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MONEY16349188</b></div><div>To say Copp has alot more value then kerfoot makes 0 sense. Yes Points shouldn't count alot but the fact is still that there even in points but kerfoots points r all even strength while copp is 5 less. To say Copp d is so much better is not true due to the fact kerfoot has the best plus minus on the leafs and is on their first PK line. His D metrics r strong this year. Lastly kerfoot contract having 1 more year with only 750k base Salery is Gold rn.</div></div>
Im not saying he’s “a lot” more valuable, but he is more valuable. Kerfoot is a strong defensive player no doubt, but not to the same effect as copp. You brought up PK so let’s look at that. Copp plays the most pk minutes for the jets and 3rd most per game (behind a couple of defensemen). On that same list for the leafs, kerfoot is 7th and 8th. Copp plays almost 40 seconds a game more than kerfoot on the PK. Additionally, since he’s the jets most used PKer, he plays against top units. Based on stats, kerfoot has at least 2 penalty killing forwards ahead of him, thus getting 2nd power plays. Add in the fact that the jets PK was absolutely terrible before Lowry came in and plus minus becomes an even more useless stat than it already is.
Now, let’s move to even strength as you brought up. Copp has better possession numbers, though they are close admittedly. However, taking a deeper look reveals that both players aren’t even close defensively. Copp plays 20:52 a night, and kerfoot plays 15:38. Copp plays against the oppositions best players every night. Kerfoot only does so when kieffe can play the matchups he likes (at home) and when he isn’t comfortable with Tavares and marner going up against them (rare).
Moving onto faceoff. Copp 55%. Kerfoot 38%. Enough said.
Now moving to even strength scoring and a deeper look into rate metrics reveals both are very close. (Pts/60 2.2 for copp, 2.7 for kerfoot)
Finally, you mentioned contract. The real dollars don’t matter for contending teams. They care about cap. And kerfoot doesn’t really come any cheaper than copp.
Overall, as I said in my initial reply, copp simply effects the game more than kerfoot because he brings a defensive game and versatility that kerfoot simply doesn’t not match. This can be seen by virtually any defensive stat and by usage by both teams.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Byrr</b></div><div>You just described Kerfoot. Congratulations. The value of a rental on Copp is comparable to the value of a rental on Kerfoot, right down to the underlying defensive numbers. You might not like it but it is what it is.</div></div>
^^ read above then read here.
Now, you can either not pick at the analytics and make a case that copp’s analytics and results are worse, thus completely ignoring that Copp plays much harder minutes than kerfoot. Or, you could take the results for what they actually show. Or as you said it “ You might not like it but it is what it is”.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Gofnut999</b></div><div>Bostons pick right now would be 19, that’s not “very low”. Not even in the bottom 3rd. Of all the teams that are likely to be buyers Bostons 1st will likely be one of the better ones.
You’d be better off with Zboril than the 2nd, he was playing great before the injury and would have taken over LD1 slot. And you are not getting a 3 piece package for Copp as a rental where all of the pieces would 2nd or better. A 1st and anyone of the pieces mentioned would be FMV.
This is one of the better trades on here that works well for both teams.</div></div>
Boston will probably make it through at least 2 rounds, making it a very late 1st. The jets have a logjam of ld, don’t need zboril to block the way for the likes of heinola and Samberg.
I never talked about a 3 piece package, I just said that the jets could probably get something just a bit more enticing. Maybe a better 1st or a slightly better prospect. I also said that that wasn’t the point I was making, but rather just a side note.
And, as <a href="/users/Windjammer" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Windjammer</a> pointed out, debrusk’s qo is quite high. With the jets being a cap or near cap team, the jets can’t really afford that. Not saying that diminishes his value, but I’m saying it hurts the jets’ interest in the package. Add in that zboril is not needed and I think the jets could find an offer that better suits their needs elsewhere, maybe even moving both players separately.
Did you accidentally switch perfetti and ehlers? I also think that it’s time to go back to stastny-scheifele-ehelrs when he gets back. Ehlers plays a very skill game that schiefele loves. Stastny plays a north south game that schiefele needs. Though you could say the same for copp as I said for stastny, stastny has the smarts and skill to contribute on a line with scheifele and ehelrs, whereas I don’t think copp does. Copp creates a lot of chances sure, but he also plays too much of a checking style in my opinion.
Finally, I’d like to see the lines spread out all the way with Lowry at 4C. That would finally give the jets the depth they’ve never had. Something like:
Stastny-Scheifele-ehelrs (combination of east-west, North-south game)
Connor-dubios-perfetti (heavy north south game)
Harkins-copp-Wheeler (shoot and crash the net)
Vesalainen-Lowry-svechnikov (grinding style game)
Also, as for the d-pairs, keep JoMo and demelo together. Demelo brings out the best in JoMo.
As a side note, pionk looks terrible right now. He needs to get back to doing what he does. He’s our best offensive defensemen and a lot of our scoring depends on him.
Overall, it’s really frustrating to see where this team could be, but isn’t either because of inconsistency or injuries or something we don’t know. Also schiefele’s fly by plays make me want to pull my hair out