Sorry, I'm gonna need to see the math on that one.

The approach I took was to take the base-two logarithm of 27,778: there are two outcomes of an NHL playoff game so if the two teams are evenly matched you could expect any game to be a 50-50. Thus (1/2)^x should equal that 1/27,778 figure of JFresh's, with x being the number of instances the Leafs have been in that situation for either team to clinch.

The result I got was around 14.76. I don't know the specifics of the Leafs' series but I know that x cannot be greater than 20 in this instance as there are only 4 possible games that can clinch a series (I believe the max for this number is actually 16 as I don't recall the Leafs or their opponents being up 3-0 in the series).

This leads me to suspect that JFresh is using odds from his model and that the distribution of who wins the game isn't 50-50.

I love, absolutely love, the handshake tradition.

I love, absolutely love, the handshake tradition.

He explained where this is based on in that tweet.

(Probability based on Dom's playoff probability simulations from each of the past five playoff series. Series in different years treated as independent events, which might be a little iffy but not too egregious

— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) May 15, 2022

So then the math would be:

A^z × B^y × C^x × D^w × E^v = 1/27,778, where:

A is the odds from the series in year 1
B is the odds from the series in year 2
C is the odds from the series in year 3
D is the odds from the series in year 4
E is the odds from the series in year 5
z is the number of games that could clinch in year 1
y is the number of games that could clinch in year 2
x is the number of games that could clinch in year 3
w is the number of games that could clinch in year 4
v is the number of games that could clinch in year 5

??? yes we do, our D is terrible

I think I might come to like it if the Leafs could be on the winning end of one.

I wonder how many teams were in on Paul at the deadline. Talk of moving him went quiet before we ultimately sent a 4th and Joseph. Dude is built for playoff hockey.

Seriously though, everybody's going to talk about how the Leafs choked "again". This 21-22 Leafs team did not choke like the Leafs teams of the past decade. They gave everything they had, played well, got terrific production out of their stars, had solid secondary scoring, and the like. The Lightning were just better. They're the two-time defending Stanley Cup champs for a reason. But even though another year yielded the same result, this Leafs team should not look at themselves like the Leafs teams of prior years. They were much, much better. They play like this in future playoffs, it's going to yield fruit.

Matthews to the Devils

What’s the full offer?

Removing Keith and Barrie is addition by subtraction, re-sign Kulak. Broberg should make the team.

Nurse-Bouchard
Kulak- ?
Broberg- Ceci

Mason Geertsen

Friendly reminder that Jim Benning has more playoff series victories than Kyle Dubas

Seriously though, everybody's going to talk about how the Leafs choked "again". This 21-22 Leafs team did not choke like the Leafs teams of the past decade. They gave everything they had, played well, got terrific production out of their stars, had solid secondary scoring, and the like. The Lightning were just better. They're the two-time defending Stanley Cup champs for a reason. But even though another year yielded the same result, this Leafs team should not look at themselves like the Leafs teams of prior years. They were much, much better. They play like this in future playoffs, it's going to yield fruit.

Friendly reminder that Jim Benning has more playoff series victories than Kyle Dubas

Seriously though, everybody's going to talk about how the Leafs choked "again". This 21-22 Leafs team did not choke like the Leafs teams of the past decade. They gave everything they had, played well, got terrific production out of their stars, had solid secondary scoring, and the like. The Lightning were just better. They're the two-time defending Stanley Cup champs for a reason. But even though another year yielded the same result, this Leafs team should not look at themselves like the Leafs teams of prior years. They were much, much better. They play like this in future playoffs, it's going to yield fruit.