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Philadelphia Flyers signed Ivan Provorov (6 Years / $6,750,000 AAV)

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12 sep 2019 à 20 h 27
#1
Ivan Provorov has signed a new contract with the Philadelphia Flyers.
CONTRAT STANDARD
COMPARER CE CONTRAT
DURÉE: 6 ANS
STATUT À L’ÉCHÉANCE DU CONTRAT: UFA
CONTRAT SIGNÉ AVEC: Flyers de PhiladelphieFlyers de Philadelphie
VALEUR: 40 500 000 $
% DU C.H. : 8,28
DATE DE SIGNATURE: 12 septembre 2019
SAISONCLAUSECAP HIT AAV BONIS DE PERF. BONIS DE SIGN. SALAIRE DE BASE SALAIRE TOTAL SALAIRE DES LIGUES MINEURES
2019-206 750 000 $6 750 000 $0 $0 $6 750 000 $6 750 000 $6 750 000 $
2020-216 750 000 $6 750 000 $0 $2 000 000 $2 750 000 $4 750 000 $4 750 000 $
2021-226 750 000 $6 750 000 $0 $3 000 000 $4 125 000 $7 125 000 $7 125 000 $
2022-236 750 000 $6 750 000 $0 $2 000 000 $2 750 000 $4 750 000 $4 750 000 $
2023-246 750 000 $6 750 000 $0 $3 000 000 $5 500 000 $8 500 000 $8 500 000 $
2024-256 750 000 $6 750 000 $0 $2 000 000 $6 625 000 $8 625 000 $8 625 000 $
TOTAL40 500 000 $40 500 000 $0 $12 000 000 $28 500 000 $40 500 000 $40 500 000 $
12 sep 2019 à 20 h 28
#2
Rejoint: fév 2019
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Hoping for a little less because of his down year, but should be a steal later on.
SpaghettiPasta, BuFfaLOFaN et mhan63 a aimé ceci.
12 sep 2019 à 20 h 30
#3
Rejoint: mar 2017
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Deal makes sense for both sides. A bridge would have walked him back to RFA again with Zach Werenski and based on how the RFA market landscape is changing, not really sure if someone of Provorov's caliber and potential is worth having a hold out over. A longer term deal would have been disastrous for the team if he has a setback like last year, or doesn't firmly become Philadelphia's best defensemen. Good AAV and good term.
BuFfaLOFaN a aimé ceci.
12 sep 2019 à 20 h 36
#4
Marner Kermit Fetish
Rejoint: sep 2018
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proverov put up 26 points. marner put up 96. according to paul marner, this means he should get around 23 mil aav for 20 years
12 sep 2019 à 20 h 44
#5
BOLT LOVER
Rejoint: déc 2018
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Good for both sidses
12 sep 2019 à 20 h 45
#6
BaRzAl OfFeRsHeEt
Rejoint: mar 2019
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Imagine a world where Kevin Hayes makes more than Ivan Provorov
habs_fan123, BlueSeeker, rollie1967 and 13 others a aimé ceci.
12 sep 2019 à 20 h 46
#7
AwesomeMatthews
Rejoint: mai 2018
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Surprised Fletcher got him to sign for less then 7 mill
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12 sep 2019 à 20 h 47
#8
i hope ur hungry now
Rejoint: oct 2017
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Quoting: Hurricanes73
proverov put up 26 points. marner put up 96. according to paul marner, this means he should get around 23 mil aav for 20 years


*4
BuFfaLOFaN et RawDeal a aimé ceci.
12 sep 2019 à 20 h 56
#9
Just Keep Swimming
Rejoint: jun 2018
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He needs to substantially improve to earn this deal but I like the upside for it. For now it is a no (would have gone with a bridge although it seems like that would be high AAV as well) but I think there is a good chance this ends well.
rebecca, The_Madhawk, Sportnilsson and 3 others a aimé ceci.
12 sep 2019 à 21 h 04
#10
Formerly BF3351
Rejoint: mai 2018
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I remember when people would make fun of me and say he'd get 7.5-8 when id make flyers posts
12 sep 2019 à 21 h 16
#11
habs_fan
Rejoint: jan 2018
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this is good idc what anyone says this is goodddd
12 sep 2019 à 21 h 53
#12
Rejoint: avr 2017
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Modifié 12 sep 2019 à 22 h 01
A bit of an overpay. Not that it couldn’t be a contract with value one day - but if Proverov doesn’t continue to improve (and markedly so compared to last season) - then it could be an anchor for an above-average 2nd pairing or below-average 1st pairing D-Man.

Regarding McAvoy. Because he is technically not a RFA (due to insufficient NHL time), his leverage is much less. While a better player, I don’t see him getting quite this much money from Boston - partly because of his situation and partly due to Boston’s cap crunch. If he wants 6y it won’t be above $6.5M - because of this I think a 2y deal (for about $4-4.5M) is most likely with a similar length for fellow blueliner Carlo.
Chopper02 a aimé ceci.
12 sep 2019 à 21 h 54
#13
CPDunn Untouchable
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It's a good contract. I'm just hoping this "down year" isn't a sign of him falling off the earth. I don't think it will be a fall off the earth, but it definitely isn't what I was expecting. I had him getting a straight 6M for 4-5 Years instead, but it's still a great contract nonetheless.
12 sep 2019 à 21 h 55
#14
CPDunn Untouchable
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Quoting: rebecca
A bit of an overpay. Not that it couldn’t be a contract with value one day - but if Proverov doesn’t continue to improve (and markedly so compared to last season) - then it could be an anchor for an above-average 2nd pairing or below-average 1st pairing D-Man.


Could, but he is only 22. He definitely still has a lot of room to grow and needs the room to grow. I think you are right tad overpaid, but it's still looking into the future for the deal.
rebecca et oneX a aimé ceci.
12 sep 2019 à 22 h 04
#15
Rejoint: déc 2017
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Quoting: Couturier
Hoping for a little less because of his down year, but should be a steal later on.


He would've been $8M+ if he did last season what he did in 2017-18. I like this deal better than the Morrissey deal. Provorov is already a true #1 D. He's way too talented not to bounce back in a huge way, especially w/ an improved Flyers team around him. This is easily one of my favorite RFA signings this summer. And I despise PHI.
12 sep 2019 à 22 h 09
#16
Rejoint: déc 2017
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Quoting: rebecca
A bit of an overpay. Not that it couldn’t be a contract with value one day - but if Proverov doesn’t continue to improve (and markedly so compared to last season) - then it could be an anchor for an above-average 2nd pairing or below-average 1st pairing D-Man.

Regarding McAvoy. Because he is technically not a RFA (due to insufficient NHL time), his leverage is much less. While a better player, I don’t see him getting quite this much money from Boston - partly because of his situation and partly due to Boston’s cap crunch. If he wants 6y it won’t be above $6.5M - because of this I think a 2y deal (for about $4-4.5M) is most likely with a similar length for fellow blueliner Carlo.


Provorov's deal seems to have higher upside than Morrissey's, but w/ a little more risk. I think I'd take Provorov straight up over Morrissey any day though. He's also 2 years younger.
12 sep 2019 à 22 h 36
#17
Rejoint: avr 2017
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Modifié 12 sep 2019 à 22 h 46
Quoting: Brian2016
Provorov's deal seems to have higher upside than Morrissey's, but w/ a little more risk. I think I'd take Provorov straight up over Morrissey any day though. He's also 2 years younger.


Technically speaking, when comparing these contracts, Morrissey is actually 3y older (as this contract doesn’t kick in until 2020/21). For $500,000 *more* the Flyers are getting 2 *fewer* years although you could argue that the last 2 years of Morrissey’s contract could be the least valuable as he could start declining by then (age 31/32).

I’d agree in general with your assessment - that the Morrissey contract is safer but has less potential maximum upside. That said I think the likelihood of there being a net positive from the contract is much greater with Morrissey. He’s already worth that much - arguably more - so that makes its value more solid.

Provorov is unequivocally not worth that much now and thus has to continue to improve to even have the contract break even. That said, he has a high pedigree and is still considered on track to be a decent - but no longer elite - top pairing defender. His ceiling is still a titch above Morrissey’s but Morrissey is much closer to his ceiling than Provorov (thus more likely to reach it). If Provorov meets these lofty expectations then it’s a win. *If*.

If I had to put numbers on it, would look something like this:

Provorov contract massive bargain - 12%
Morrissey contract massive bargain - 4%

Provorov contract significant bargain - 22%
Morrissey contract significant bargain - 52%

Provorov contract fair value - 28%
Morrissey contract fair value - 32%

Provorov contract significant anchor - 28%
Morrissey contract significant anchor - 10%

Provorov contract massive anchor - 10%
Morrissey contract massive anchor - 2%

Likelihood of contract being an anchor?
Morrissey 12%
Provorov 38% (> 3x)

I think that’s why Provorov’s contract has about 3x the “No’s” as Morrissey. That said the potential for Provorov’s contract to be a massive bargain is greater (also by 3x). However the likelihood of such a good outcome happening occurs only 8% of the time vs 25% of the time for either contract being a bust. So pick which is more important? The Provorov deal is just too risky for my tastes in a cap world.
Brian2016, oneX, toque and 1 other person a aimé ceci.
12 sep 2019 à 22 h 51
#18
Rejoint: déc 2017
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Quoting: rebecca
Technically speaking, when comparing these contracts, Morrissey is actually 3y older (as this contract doesn’t kick in until 2020/21). For $500,000 *more* the Flyers are getting 2 *fewer* years although you could argue that the last 2 years of Morrissey’s contract could be the least valuable as he could start declining by then (age 31/32).

I’d agree in general with your assessment - that the Morrissey contract is safer but has less potential maximum upside. That said I think the likelihood of there being a net positive from the contract is much greater with Morrissey. He’s already worth that much - arguably more - so that makes its value more solid.

Provorov is unequivocally not worth that much now and thus has to continue to improve to even have the contract break even. That said, he has a high pedigree and is still considered on track to be a decent - but no longer elite - top pairing defender. His ceiling is still a titch above Morrissey’s but Morrissey is much closer to his ceiling than Provorov (thus more likely to reach it). If Provorov meets these lofty expectations then it’s a win. *If*.

If I had to put numbers on it, would look something like this:

Provorov contract massive bargain - 12%
Morrissey contract massive bargain - 4%

Provorov contract significant bargain - 22%
Morrissey contract significant bargain - 52%

Provorov contract fair value - 28%
Morrissey contract fair value - 32%

Provorov contract significant anchor - 28%
Morrissey contract significant anchor - 10%

Provorov contract massive anchor - 10%
Morrissey contract massive anchor - 2%

Likelihood of contract being an anchor?
Morrissey 12%
Provorov 38% (> 3x)

I think that’s why Provorov’s contract has about 3x the “No’s” as Morrissey. That said the potential for Provorov’s contract to be a massive bargain is greater (also by 3x). However the likelihood of such a good outcome happening occurs only 8% of the time vs 25% of the time for either contract being a bust. So pick which is more important? The Provorov deal is just too risky for my tastes in a cap world.


Also gotta take into account the fact that Morrissey should see substantial exposure to WPG's elite forwards both at 5on5 and on the PP. His offensive numbers should probably be higher than Provorov's assuming Ghostesbehere retains the #1 PP role. Maybe it's just b/c I've seen Provorov a lit more on tv and in person b/c the Flyers play the Devils 4 times a year and PHI gets more national TV exposure, but I just think he's the total package of 2-way skill, physicality, and high hockey IQ. Before his regression last season I thought he was a future Norris contender...He still might be, but who knows.
12 sep 2019 à 22 h 52
#19
Rejoint: déc 2017
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Quoting: rebecca
Technically speaking, when comparing these contracts, Morrissey is actually 3y older (as this contract doesn’t kick in until 2020/21). For $500,000 *more* the Flyers are getting 2 *fewer* years although you could argue that the last 2 years of Morrissey’s contract could be the least valuable as he could start declining by then (age 31/32).

I’d agree in general with your assessment - that the Morrissey contract is safer but has less potential maximum upside. That said I think the likelihood of there being a net positive from the contract is much greater with Morrissey. He’s already worth that much - arguably more - so that makes its value more solid.

Provorov is unequivocally not worth that much now and thus has to continue to improve to even have the contract break even. That said, he has a high pedigree and is still considered on track to be a decent - but no longer elite - top pairing defender. His ceiling is still a titch above Morrissey’s but Morrissey is much closer to his ceiling than Provorov (thus more likely to reach it). If Provorov meets these lofty expectations then it’s a win. *If*.

If I had to put numbers on it, would look something like this:

Provorov contract massive bargain - 12%
Morrissey contract massive bargain - 4%

Provorov contract significant bargain - 22%
Morrissey contract significant bargain - 52%

Provorov contract fair value - 28%
Morrissey contract fair value - 32%

Provorov contract significant anchor - 28%
Morrissey contract significant anchor - 10%

Provorov contract massive anchor - 10%
Morrissey contract massive anchor - 2%

Likelihood of contract being an anchor?
Morrissey 12%
Provorov 38% (> 3x)

I think that’s why Provorov’s contract has about 3x the “No’s” as Morrissey. That said the potential for Provorov’s contract to be a massive bargain is greater (also by 3x). However the likelihood of such a good outcome happening occurs only 8% of the time vs 25% of the time for either contract being a bust. So pick which is more important? The Provorov deal is just too risky for my tastes in a cap world.


Nice analysis btw.
12 sep 2019 à 23 h 03
#20
Rejoint: avr 2017
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Quoting: Brian2016
Also gotta take into account the fact that Morrissey should see substantial exposure to WPG's elite forwards both at 5on5 and on the PP. His offensive numbers should probably be higher than Provorov's assuming Ghostesbehere retains the #1 PP role. Maybe it's just b/c I've seen Provorov a lit more on tv and in person b/c the Flyers play the Devils 4 times a year and PHI gets more national TV exposure, but I just think he's the total package of 2-way skill, physicality, and high hockey IQ. Before his regression last season I thought he was a future Norris contender...He still might be, but who knows.


And perhaps I’m bias being in Toronto and watching the Jets (tho not as often as I like as late game is usually the Canucks ? on CBC) on Saturday nights (Hockey Night in Canada).

There is merit in choosing the Provorov deal over the Morrissey deal, don’t get me wrong. Both are being paid at what will be “bargains” for a top pair D-Man in a few years time. And they could be more even. So there is value to be had.

Provorov could still be a Top-30 defender one day in the NHL but he’s got a ways to go. Morrissey is already there, IMHO, as a top pair LD and in the “Top-30” conversation.

Morrissey actually doesn’t see a tonne of PP time - significantly less than Provorov in fact. Last season Morrissey had 103m and in 17/18 just 26m. Provorov has averaged almost 140m per season on the PP thru his first 3 seasons. Just for comparison.

And thank you. ???‍♀️
toque a aimé ceci.
12 sep 2019 à 23 h 13
#21
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Quoting: Brian2016
Also gotta take into account the fact that Morrissey should see substantial exposure to WPG's elite forwards both at 5on5 and on the PP. His offensive numbers should probably be higher than Provorov's assuming Ghostesbehere retains the #1 PP role. Maybe it's just b/c I've seen Provorov a lit more on tv and in person b/c the Flyers play the Devils 4 times a year and PHI gets more national TV exposure, but I just think he's the total package of 2-way skill, physicality, and high hockey IQ. Before his regression last season I thought he was a future Norris contender...He still might be, but who knows.


Also, Dom Luszczyszyn at The Athletic in his annual team previews/rankings grades Provorov out as a 0.9 on his Game Score whereas Morrissey is a 1.6. It’s behind a paywall, but it’s a very rigorous analysis (accounts for scoring contributions and expected goals for/against primarily as well as other things and corrected for age curves). It’s weighted with the most recent season in account, so that doesn’t help Provorov, but it shows that Morrissey is a top pair (but not elite) option whereas Provorov is a solid 2nd Pair guy (over the past 3y).
Bill_Karsen et Brian2016 a aimé ceci.
13 sep 2019 à 1 h 33
#22
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Quoting: rebecca
Also, Dom Luszczyszyn at The Athletic in his annual team previews/rankings grades Provorov out as a 0.9 on his Game Score whereas Morrissey is a 1.6. It’s behind a paywall, but it’s a very rigorous analysis (accounts for scoring contributions and expected goals for/against primarily as well as other things and corrected for age curves). It’s weighted with the most recent season in account, so that doesn’t help Provorov, but it shows that Morrissey is a top pair (but not elite) option whereas Provorov is a solid 2nd Pair guy (over the past 3y).


Interesting. I like analytics, but the eye test tells me a lot too. This coming season will also reveal a lot, especially if Provorov bounces back.
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13 sep 2019 à 2 h 20
#23
GM67
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Quoting: AndrewLadd
Imagine a world where Kevin Hayes makes more than Ivan Provorov


Exactly!!! Hilarious
13 sep 2019 à 2 h 22
#24
GM67
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It's a good contract if he produces like he is expected to produce. Smooth skating scoring defensemen are always overpaid in today's market so looking him up long term is a team smart deal and he should be MORE than elated with this contract. He is overpaid so he should be smiling like a Butchers' Dog.
13 sep 2019 à 7 h 02
#25
Rejoint: avr 2018
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Quoting: AndrewLadd
Imagine a world where Kevin Hayes makes more than Ivan Provorov


looool
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