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Shylo_Moxii

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Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 9 minutes
Sujet: Building Around The MVP
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drambui</b></div><div>you can argue all you want that the things i mentioned are not important dude, but is not based on my opinion, and your doesnt matters, its based on actual data made by people who knows this way more than mr and you. so have fun arguing all you want about that.

and just to answer your question, jake been was traded for a second, alex petrovic was trafef for a third in recent years. i could probably find more.

here you go. point proven. once again, i dont care even a little bit what you think about him, data shows that the most important metric for trade value and past comparable for holl is probably atleast a third and not a cap dump like you say. hey maybe he will get traded for a 4th instead who knows. he will likely not even be traded at all so we will never know. and please next time if you have a question just do your own research.</div></div>

yes, because I use my own opinion, or am I using this information off of guys like Micah McCurdy who is the advanced data analytic member of the Toronto maple leafs. Why has their been so many advanced analytics people hired by NHL teams every team has 1 except for Seattle at the moment. So you trying to tell me it's my opinion and it doesn't matter great debate tactic, but falls short when it's not actually true.

Bean is a prospect who has more potential than Holl since he's also younger. Petrovic in 2018-19 was 27 not 30. He also was doing for greater things defensively in the advanced analytics. Plus it was Edmonton who was desperate for a defenseman. and that's half the reason no one gets that type of a haul anymore because of his poor production after and has been in the AHL ever since so far from even close to being a good argument. And based on what data that you haven't shown at all because it isn't there. Lmao if you want to come to a debate at least bring the evidence with you.

P.s. I did my own research which is why I have brought up more than 10 different trades, I brought up multiple different situations with Holl, and I've brought up past things that have happened which shows he isn't worth it. All you have said is you are wrong and brought up 2 trades that doesn't even fit your narrative and I have easily blew up.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 15 heures
Sujet: Building Around The MVP
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drambui</b></div><div>ill go slowly. its ok if you think holl is horrendous and an 6-7-8d if you want. its your opinion and you are entitled to it and i have no need to argue if holl is good, bad, underated, overated or not, because that is subjective.
now what i can tell you for facts is that he his not a cap dump like you are pretending he is for whatever reason. now if you want to know how, here is the most important things to gauge a player trade value (not if he is good , just the value). things like : point total, position, cap hit, year left on contract (the less the better) and ice time have a better correlation to trade value than most advanced stats in the last 5 years (not saying its a good thing, maybe all gm are dinosaurs, but its what mostly relevant when they make trades and they correlate better). now go and look whats the price for a rd, making 2 mil, 30 point ish ppg pace and making 2 mil with 1 year left. look at the value of player close to holl on these metric and you will find what gm will pay for. maybe he sucks, who cares. what you will find out, a 3rd round pick is probably a given... and talking about being a cap dump is just ridiculous, capiche?</div></div>

because total points matter for a defenseman who's supposed to be defensive? It also matters that he's with Muzzin or Giordano who are both significantly better and significantly more offensive which makes his assistman stats look better than they really are. Basing the correlation he's on one of the most offensive d cores, and also one of the best forward cores in the league, and moving from that to a team not nearly as good shows significant drop offs for players such as Holl. If you want to go down the route of how good he is you take a 3-5 season average, not 1 season. cap hit has absolutely nothing to do with his value because regardless of how much he costs. he's overpaid for a 3rd pairing guy. Bortuzzo makes 950,000, who other Toronto fans have tried to trade Holl for in a 1 for 1 just in conversation. Position does play a role, but when you aren't actually as good as they say you are and only play in a higher role because they don't trust young players that doesn't make him a neccessity. year left on his contract woohoo. That has nothing to do with anything. NHL normally counts those as rentals which makes their market value cut in half. No Ice time doesn't really mean all that much. Unless you correlate ice time to who the player plays with and how he performs against the level of talent he's paired with 100% means nothing. Considering injuries that occurred on Toronto anyway they are sort of off anyway. and no because Toronto is based sheerly on advanced stats and cap situation which is why Giordano was brought at the amount he was brought in at. what still baffles me how you want to sit here and say Holl is so good then Toronto should just keep him. Need him for the playoff run right? Talk about a RD pricing at 2 Million call him 30 point pace because he's never hit 30 points and has never played a full season in his career because he makes dumb plays and the coach benches him makes complete sense. You think a 3rd round pick is going to be offered for a rental, a guy who never hit 30 points yet you call him 30 point per game lmao not even season. 30 points per game. 2 mil and makes him worth that. I'm pretty sure we just found out the answer to why you haven't understood my entire context. Did you know Holl would not be placed as a Top 4 defenseman on any other contending team in the league? Name 1 team that would put him in the Top 4 of the lineup. I'll wait on that one. Name 1 3rd pairing defenseman who got a 3rd round pick or higher and it was not at trade deadline it was at offseason. I'll wait. Name 1 defenseman who got a 3rd round pick when he underperforms with a player who isn't a bonified top 4 defenseman, and performs at a higher rate when he does play with a bonified top 4 defenseman. I'll wait. Did you know Blues asked for a 1st round pick for Vince Dunn. 30 point per season player. at the time played 1st Pairing minutes with Pietrangelo and only got moved when he got expansion drafted. No one even offered a 3rd round pick. Best offer was a 5th round pick. He has outperformed Holl over the past 4 years including being a 100% CF player in the Stanley Cup finals. Toronto in a position cash strapped needs out of some contracts to get better. That costs. No one needs Holl. You can't really name a team who needs him. Montreal especially. Why would they take on 2 million of salary cap and just lose out on draft picks for what? 1 year of a player not doing a thing? LOL. I don't know how this makes sense to you. No one is giving up a 3rd round pick in the next 2 deep drafts for a player who is going to be a wasted season and do absolutely nothing but keep the team stagnant.
Forum: Armchair-GMmer. à 12 h 33
Sujet: Building Around The MVP
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drambui</b></div><div>i dont think any team is pushing for the playoffs right now. look at most team and holl would improve their bottom 4. i dont get how you can say one year the guy is worth a second but the next year he is a cap dump. Just makes no sense, and i dont k ow qbere you get those rd numbers but i can tell you its still the position with the most need across the league right now. (one could argue starting goalies aswell but you get what im saying)</div></div>

Ok, let's do this slowly then if you truly want to figure this one out. Trade deadline, not as many Defenseman, if someone trades for him it's in desperation mode. Desperation mode because the need is there. Example Florida, Chiarot. St.Louis, Leddy. Boston, Lindholm. Colorado, Manson. I could keep going. Now we are in the offseason. Completely different story you aren't completely desperate because options are open. You don't need to overpay now because you aren't in a time crunch. And no it's not the most needed spot anymore. Lot of people target Wingers, and Goalies. Because optimally a lot of Defenseman prospects are moving right now through the course. So now people are struggling to find Wingers. I might add a lot of 2Cs have been needed, because that's also been hard to come by. Boston has been looking for one since before the season started. Minnesota is now looking for one. Nashville is as well. Columbus probably will. Calgary might, Vancouver will.
Forum: Armchair-GMmer. à 2 h 2
Sujet: Building Around The MVP
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drambui</b></div><div>well i wont argue that kerfoot to Montréal is not a trafe that makes sense, just cause they dont even have a roster spot for him.

i have no clue why or how you can even say that the need for right d ''fixed itself'' within a year. i think its funny even, like where did they all come up from all of a sudden. unless there is something im missing in your explanation that i dont get.</div></div>

ok. how many teams are looking for a Right handed defenseman that are making a push for the playoffs rn? I'd say at most about 8 teams and that's pushing it. If you wanna say 10 just to simplify it we'll go with that. How many teams were looking for a RHD last year that were making a push for playoffs? I'd say probably about 15. So bidding goes up. Now because not as many teams are looking for it. It's cheaper. You get the concept? This is why certain positions market value, and face value are 2 separate things. Last year Holl probably gets a 2nd round pick. Just with how bad teams needed an RD. Now that's not the case. It's more like some teams need 2Cs, and some teams need Wingers. You'll see a lot more LHDs go for higher now. That's why Trouba was a hot commodity when he was on the market however long ago that was. That's why Paul Stastny sold for a 1st round pick because teams needed 2Cs and you couldn't really find any that were for sale at deadline in 2018.
Forum: Armchair-GMmer. à 1 h 56
Sujet: Building Around The MVP
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KingExLeafs</b></div><div>Holl played top 4 minutes last year for the Leafs, and played great. He regressed this year because his partner, Muzzin, was injured for the majority of the season. When he played with Giordano towards the end he went back to being a servicable top 4 defenceman.

Obviously he is not a team's first choice to fill out that position, but he's far from a cap dump. Most GMs will look at his size, his cheap contract, his stats, his right-handedness, and his penalty kill abilities and say yes please. Leafs should get a 3rd-4th for him no problem.</div></div>

and you basically answered your own question of what I have been saying the entire time. He's only serviceable when he's with a good pairing mate. So if a team is having D-man troubles. Holl is not someone who's going to elevate it. He plays bad unless he's with someone who's far superior to his own ability. He showed this a lot the past couple of years. Too much of a risk of him becoming horrible because you don't have the very specific player to elevate him to play better which is exactly why he isn't worth a 3rd round pick.
Forum: Armchair-GMmer. à 1 h 53
Sujet: Building Around The MVP
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drambui</b></div><div>so you said you think he is bad, do you have an argument? you say he is a 7d. how much minutes did he play the last 2 seasons. you might want to look, you could learn something. and of course you named a binch of bad d that were scratched on their respective teams too. was holl scratched or did they even scratch their young Guns cause they prefered he played in the playoff. so, like i said, do you any argument that can based your statement or are you just gonna repeat ''he is bad''?</div></div>

Butch was scratch in fact Subban Severson Graves Siegenthaler Smith and Graves being your D core which I'm not gonna lie I pretty much would say all of them are better than any of your depth defenseman at this very moment. Hagg didn't really fit in Philly especially when they are rebuilding. Stetcher never got benched in Detroit having Seider Hronek Lindstrom DeKeyser Staal Walman Kampfer Oesterle and Edvinsson and McIsaac coming up wasn't really a need for him on the D core they needed to get someone off the boards. Beaulieu got benched, but that's because they had gone with a prospect who was better. Toronto didn't have that option because they got thin if Muzzin didn't get injured you'd probably would have seen Holl off the lineup.
Forum: Armchair-GMmer. à 1 h 47
Sujet: Building Around The MVP
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drambui</b></div><div>so you said you think he is bad, do you have an argument? you say he is a 7d. how much minutes did he play the last 2 seasons. you might want to look, you could learn something. and of course you named a binch of bad d that were scratched on their respective teams too. was holl scratched or did they even scratch their young Guns cause they prefered he played in the playoff. so, like i said, do you any argument that can based your statement or are you just gonna repeat ''he is bad''?</div></div>

you want argument points got it. 47% WAR for 2 TOI minutes. This is on a team that has less of a depth than say 75% of the league to be quite honest. When you isolate his numbers it's even worse. Quality of Competition is 62% out all average for defenseman. His teammate being Muzzin most of the year is above 70%. So meaning in isolated numbers you don't put him with a 3-4D caliber player he is in fact ineffective. Which is 3rd pairing at best if I'm being generous.
Forum: Armchair-GMmer. à 1 h 5
Sujet: Building Around The MVP
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drambui</b></div><div>ristolainen. thats all i have to say.</div></div>

Ristolainen played Top Pairing minutes, and is Top 4 material. Holl is not even close he's basically a 6-7D. No one is paying that much for 6-7D. It's also not as big of a need in the world anymore. Last year it was. That's the difference. You gotta look at the market.<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drambui</b></div><div>i dont think using point for thesis is a bad take when judging player's value. you can shoot me all the fancy stats you want, this is something GM will look at and value when judging a player. (not saying they dont use advanced stats at all). but really saying he is a cap dump is just ridiculous. you can tell how for how long you want how good a player like brassard was and for whataver random stats he was better than kerfoot but at the end of the day he was an healthy scratch during playoff for a reason. maybe 1 or 2 guys can be a better ''inverstment'' for role player and i get that depending on the contract they sign. but some of them are motsly fringe nhl players . and gagner is not on the edge of kerfoot's point by my standard too. and you know, saying another player can be a better investment is not gonna lower some other player trafe value.</div></div>

and to your point on standard points like I said Kerfoot was a line mate merchant. He got most of his assists by plays he did not create at. Montreal does not have that luxury on the 3rd line like Toronto does. So to expect them to give up that much for a guy who is literally mooching off other players is preposterous. So yes better investments. Especially in those players they could draft rather than bringing in a player that does nothing for Montreal in the immediate future. Especially for 1 season I might add.
Forum: Armchair-GMmer. à 0 h 59
Sujet: Building Around The MVP
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drambui</b></div><div>i dont think using point for thesis is a bad take when judging player's value. you can shoot me all the fancy stats you want, this is something GM will look at and value when judging a player. (not saying they dont use advanced stats at all). but really saying he is a cap dump is just ridiculous. you can tell how for how long you want how good a player like brassard was and for whataver random stats he was better than kerfoot but at the end of the day he was an healthy scratch during playoff for a reason. maybe 1 or 2 guys can be a better ''inverstment'' for role player and i get that depending on the contract they sign. but some of them are motsly fringe nhl players . and gagner is not on the edge of kerfoot's point by my standard too. and you know, saying another player can be a better investment is not gonna lower some other player trafe value.</div></div>

Holl is a cap dump in 90% of cases. Kerfoot isn't worth 2 middle picks in a deep draft that probably has more value prospects than what you get for 1 year of Kerfoot.
Forum: Armchair-GMmer. à 0 h 7
Sujet: Building Around The MVP
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drambui</b></div><div>i think most people would take kerfoot over all the player you listed. and they rightfully would. many of the players you named wont be even in the nhl next year. even point wise no one is even near him in your exemples... i have no clue what argument your trying to make.</div></div>

using point stat as your thesis is horribly common and a bad take. He has a -9.1 CF% Rel and a -8.5 FF% Rel. It also helps to notice who his primary assists are to which if you hadn't notice this season he's been backing off of another player who did well. And when you isolate Kerfoot the numbers specify the same thing you want to use as a point of emphasis as being better. You can't compare an argument for a guy who has played higher minutes on another team, and players who were actually meant for defensive play, when the guy you want to say is better is riding the back of teammates and is only better than about 65% of PK players. Endorsing upon that his QoT (Quality of Teammate) is better than his QoC (Quality of Competition) Which means he didn't elevate his game only really was effective if his teammates were good. So when you move Kerfoot to a team like Montreal where he would NOT have those same quality of defense. You kind of start to see why Kerfoot fails and where he would fail. He's not a smart investment. When cap is spreading thin and you think you can pull good quality picks for a guy who is making more than what he is worth I start to question your judgement on the NHL Market overall. When you see someone like Radulov who's played in a higher role and will come cheaper than 3.5 Million, when Johansson was doing very well without leaning on his teammates both at Washington and Buffalo and he's going to be making less than 3.5 M to play a 3rd line role. Same with Heinen, same with Brassard who played less than 50 games btw if you want to bring up points. Sam Gagner is on the very edge of that and even then he's still a better PK player than Kerfoot with all things considered.
Forum: Armchair-GMmar. à 23 h 54
Sujet: Building Around The MVP
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KingExLeafs</b></div><div>There are 32 teams in the league. They all can't sign guys when free agency opens. Desperate teams will seek out trades to fill positions of need. Kerfoot and Holl will be attractive options on the fifth day of free agency.</div></div>

again with how they both performed, I'd be very surprised if they got anything more than late round picks. We both know that Holl as a 3rd pairing d-man at best won't get a 3rd round pick maybe a 5th or 6th a most if not paying to get rid of him. You said it yourself Kerfoot is a 3C no way he gets a third much less a 3rd and 4th. What you are banking on is a pipedream. 4th is most you'll get or even then you'd probably get less or he ends up in a package deal.
Forum: Armchair-GMmar. à 23 h 42
Sujet: Building Around The MVP
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KingExLeafs</b></div><div>Kerfoot and Holl have value. Each can be easily traded to any number of teams. They have low cap hits. And they fill needs that are critical on the ice (third line penalty killing center and right shot defense).</div></div>

Name someone who would trade for Holl. Better yet tell me what team would pick him over some other defenseman on the market. Petry is available for trade, Klingberg Letang Subban Manson Schultz plus there are far better options on the market for trade that doesn't play nearly as bad as Holl has recently. Kerfoot has a negative value. No one will pay 3.5 Million to a 3rd Line Center who has a 18% WAR on the year. Sure he was ok on defense. You know who's on the market who could be a better fit 3 Line Forward Paul Stastny, Alexander Radulov, Matthias Janmark, Marcus Johansson, Danton Heinen, Ryan Dzingel, Sam Gagner, Derick Brassard I could keep going. I would imagine so many better players than Kerfoot. Essentially 3rd line PK player contract wise ideally would be even less than Sundqvist makes and he's at 2.75 Cap rate.
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