H/T @caseyflyman for the GSAx/60.

I do not agree. Especially in the offseason, when the cap goes up almost the amount of his full cap hit. I do not expect any material return for Elvis, but I think everyone involved is motivated to move him. I do not think Columbus will have to pay for the experience, whether in retention, adding, or taking back a worse player. He's not a net negative, and there will be some GM who looks at his numbers and thinks "he did this behind the worst defense in the league. Our defense is not that bad. This is worth the gamble, and he will be motivated in a new home."

Edmonton's situation with Campbell is always going to come down to the salary cap.

Conventional wisdom suggests that unless there's a team willing to take Campbell on as the cap-recapture part of a deal, or to take him for cheap, the Oilers are aiming to buy Soup out in the summer. A few AGM's I've tinkered with for next year have seen Edmonton run a cheap backup to Skinner - I typically use Rodrigue here - because the equal-to-or-greater-than $3M bonus hit that Edmonton is getting from Connor Brown doesn't leave a lot of room for quality investment across the roster. Assuming Edmonton moves Kulak and buys Campbell out, and that the trio of Broberg, Holloway, and Rodrigue all sign for just their qualifying offers, the Oilers are looking at having a hair over $12M to find two top-six wingers, a middle-six winger, a #4C, and a #2RD.

Do I think Merzlikins has a really good chance to bounce back to form on a team that hasn't been as awful as Columbus has in recent memory? Absolutely. But it's coming at the loss of almost $3.5M in cap space (the difference between the sum cost of QO Rodrigue and Campbell's buyout and Elvis' cap hit) and could be the difference between Edmonton having to forsake improvements that are going to be absolutely crucial in other areas of the roster.

If Columbus does this with some sort of retention in exchange for an asset (how much for a first?) then it's much more amenable to where the Oilers are going to be this summer, but I still think that being able to use that $3.5M to add to the skating portion of the roster makes running a rookie backup tolerable, if not legitimately feasible.

Elvis isnt worth much, but he worth much more than Campbell. EDM would have to add to get a deal done.

FWIW I got them from Moneypuck, they deserve the credit.

I like the idea of a swap, if for no other reason than neither is likely the long term starter, and Jack is reportedly a good-natured, awesome person; not to say Elvis isn't, but both players would welcome a swap and brining that kind of person into this locker room as the backup should only help. And I think he's better than the AHL-backup he's been this season, so it's fine to take that risk.

However, one-for-one is poor asset management given the situation IMO. EDM is in a full cap crunch, we're not. Perception is Campbell is washed/a cup dump, and Elvis is an upgrade. The Peeke trade showed us Columbus is able to move overpaid players with term without retention, too. I think the new GM could shake down Edmonton for at least a mid-round pick in a swap, or a B-prospect. Definitely not a 1st or 2nd, but something to take advantage of the situation.

I don't see the point exactly. EDM's issue is not finding a good goalie to replace Campbell. Its cap space. They have their goalie they've hitched too now in Skinner and Pickard is at least doing an admirable job as backup.

EDM's need is cap space and their best option is a Campbell buyout. Not double down on a high risk/reward when they have the position solidified enough to be a contender already.

CLB would make some sense hoping for a hail mary that Campbell comes back to form but even if he didn't, they're at the very least getting some cap relief and can simply buy out Campbell for a cheaper cap penalty also. Small gains here but gains none the less.

I think CLB and EDM are destined to either BO both guys. I know cap penalties seem like poor asset management but sometimes you got to bite the bullet. Sometimes buyouts are justified and the right thing to do. EDM should absolutely buyout Campbell. CLB should only buy out Elvis if they find a better option. If not they're better suited to keep him in the hopes of him finding his game again. They do need someone to play goalie. Might as well be the guy they're paying out the nose to.

If Edmonton moves Campbell it will be for cap space, not for another goalie.

They buyout Campbell. They aint trading for another Campbell.



lol keep your 'upgrade' Neither goalie has anything of value lmao with the mental gymnastics calling Merz anything of consequence here

I agree with this. the only thing I would add is Elvis was addiment and being a starter and created a bit of a rift. I don't see that as a fit for Edmonton.
Also If EDM keeps on track with their current roster/cap hit the bonus will hopefully only be ~2M on next years cap.

Terrible asset management from the jackets. They would be better off trading Elvis 1.4 million retained and getting assets back than taking on Campbell and buying him out. If jarmo made this trade jackets fans would want him fired immediately

This is terrific insight on both Edmonton's cap situation and general roster needs. Just to spitball here, it seems like having Campbell on the roster is unsustainable past this season, so it's safe to assume 1) he's bought out, or 2) he's moved without salary retention. With 2, it's unlikely you're getting a team to take that on without taking back a bad asset or paying significantly (which, unlikely EDM bites), so really the only question is if EDM can get a "bad asset" back that's more tolerable than the buyout cap hit.

Moving Kulak and buying out Campbell nets, what, $5.5M in cap savings (2.75M for Kulak, 3.85-1.1=2.75M for Campbell). Maybe there's a two-birds situation with moving Kulak and Campbell as part of the same deal?

If that deal is with CBJ, EDM takes on Elvis at, say, $1M retained? For a 1st, you might be able to get $1.5-$2M retained over 3 seasons? You'd get $5.5M-4.4M = $1.1M in cap savings instead, you're probably still qualifying Rodrigue, so then it's $12M-4.4M = ~$7.6M in cap space for two top-6 wingers, a middle-sixer, a 4C, and a 2RD using that same math? If it doesn't work out, you're looking at a total buyout cost of $1.5M, $2.8M, $1.625M, and $1.625M (minus about 20% of each due to Columbus' retention). That's basically taking a chance on a different goalie, and delaying the buyout a year and lessening the total impact if it doesn't work out. But it's also clearly not enough to sign all 5 other players you're targeting, though I doubt $12M is enough to do that regardless.

I don't think there's a scenario where Columbus retains more than ~$1M, maybe $1.5M for a 1st, and there's not really a scenario where EDM can make it work without half-retention or more (75% with a 3rd team?), and that gets extremely pricey. So it's really either take a chance at upgrading the goaltender and sacrifices the chance at upgrading the top-6/depth/D; or roll with Skinner/Rodrigue, buy out Campbell, and use the space to target those other areas of need.

The more I look at the math...the more I'm on board with "just buy out Campbell". Columbus' best bet is to retain slightly on Elvis and send him to a team with the space, or just buy him out too. Or let him play and delay that decision...it's not like we need the cap space at the moment.

If this is the bridge you are willing to die on. Oof. Your org is really screwed worse than I thought. Neither goalie are even an afterthought in any other org. Talk about making a mountain out of a molehill, some you need to go outside and breathe.