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Monahan realistic value

Créé par: Nighthawk
Équipe: 2023-24 Canucks de Vancouver
Date de création initiale: 13 janv. 2024
Publié: 13 janv. 2024
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Don’t bother posting if claiming he’s worth a 1st.
His D has never been a strength.
Transactions
1.
MTL
  1. Räty, Aatu
  2. Choix de 3e ronde en 2024 (VAN)
2.
VAN
  1. Wahlstrom, Oliver
Détails additionnels:
NYI looking for scoring.
Reclamation for Van
NYI
  1. Kuzmenko, Andrei (1 500 000 $ retained)
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2383 500 000 $81 114 542 $850 000 $15 000 $2 385 458 $
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Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
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2 500 000 $2 500 000 $
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775 000 $775 000 $
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775 000 $775 000 $
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13 janv. à 5 h 47
#1
Dekesaladekes
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Easy no to both. Raty still has the potential to be a cirelli esce player. Wahlstrom had a chance to be great but I think NYI ruined his potential and confidence
13 janv. à 7 h 0
#2
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Value is probably fair for Monahan but i expect someone to beat that offer closer to deadline IMHO
Raty’s issue is speed, right? Talented but slow?
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13 janv. à 7 h 2
#3
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If you don't like the asking price for Monahan then why don't you just find another player to acquire instead of debating what you believe he's actually worth ?

MTL will have a high asking price for this player because he will be in high demand. It's fine if you don't want to pay that price, just move on to another option.
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13 janv. à 7 h 12
#4
Banni
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Quoting: LumberJacques
If you don't like the asking price for Monahan then why don't you just find another player to acquire instead of debating what you believe he's actually worth ?

MTL will have a high asking price for this player because he will be in high demand. It's fine if you don't want to pay that price, just move on to another option.


This. Context is lost on the loudest here.

Trying to explain to doubters that Monahan is worth a 1st is the same mundane task as explaining the merits of Ben Chiarot and the marketplace opportunity. It's an open market with 31 other teams bidding.

You think he aint worth it, fine, but deal with it because other teams want a low cost AAV, w/o trade protection center that wins draws and can cary a line to the tune of a 50 point pace.

He's been carrying Gallagher and Evans, two 4th liners yet produces. Teams see that and want that kind of depth not to mention that same depth carried Vegas to a Stanley Cup.

I'm sure if another UFA in William Carrier form Vegas was available he'd go for a 1st yet he has less than half of Monahan's point totals.
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13 janv. à 7 h 48
#5
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If someone is willing to pay a 1st for him, that is on them. He is by no means worth a 1st. Not with his 4 goals and 7 assists 5v5.

He's on pace for Brandon Tanev numbers (in terms of goals and points, Tanev is much better physically and defensively). That is to say, he is a pretty good 3rd liner. If someone pays a 1st for a good 3rd liner (not great, good), they are at risk of being fired, very soon.
13 janv. à 7 h 53
#6
Banni
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Quoting: Victor24
If someone is willing to pay a 1st for him, that is on them. He is by no means worth a 1st. Not with his 4 goals and 7 assists 5v5.

He's on pace for Brandon Tanev numbers (in terms of goals and points, Tanev is much better physically and defensively). That is to say, he is a pretty good 3rd liner. If someone pays a 1st for a good 3rd liner (not great, good), they are at risk of being fired, very soon.


Do you realize that late 1st picks are, most likely, at best 3rd liners otherwise AHL scrubs? I dont think you realize the real worth of a late 1st.
Why you think the Yotes choose the Senators with a return that seemed underwhelming?! Because their 1st round pick would be in the high teens low 20s at worst.
A pick after about 22 picks OA has about a 5% chance of becoming a star player in the last 40 years. Not to mention this draft is incredibly shallow and CSS is throwing darts at a board after about 10-15 picks this season. This might be the year whjere 1st round picks from contenders are thrown around like candy and brandon tanevs do go for late 1sts!
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13 janv. à 8 h 22
#7
Larrylnh
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Oh, if it's your offer for Monahan, we will je extend his contract
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13 janv. à 8 h 40
#8
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Quoting: Victor24
If someone is willing to pay a 1st for him, that is on them. He is by no means worth a 1st. Not with his 4 goals and 7 assists 5v5.

He's on pace for Brandon Tanev numbers (in terms of goals and points, Tanev is much better physically and defensively). That is to say, he is a pretty good 3rd liner. If someone pays a 1st for a good 3rd liner (not great, good), they are at risk of being fired, very soon.


So Jeanot by those logic is a top 6 player?! Teams that see themselves as having a good shot at a deep playoff run will trade what it takes to acquire the peices they think they need. Worth goes out the window when teams are trying to win
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13 janv. à 8 h 48
#9
Banni
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Quoting: Campabee
So Jeanot by those logic is a top 6 player?! Teams that see themselves as having a good shot at a deep playoff run will trade what it takes to acquire the peices they think they need. Worth goes out the window when teams are trying to win


I dont think some of these fans understand that there is a world outside their fandom where leverage exists. Nobody thought Lehkonen was going for more than a 3rd round pick here. He got a 1st rounder RHD puck mover in Justin Barron and a 2nd. Hughes leveraged a bunch of teams til he got what he wanted and we can always revist the Ben Chiarot deal whom the Panthers desperately wanted
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13 janv. à 9 h 35
#10
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Quoting: LumberJacques
If you don't like the asking price for Monahan then why don't you just find another player to acquire instead of debating what you believe he's actually worth ?

MTL will have a high asking price for this player because he will be in high demand. It's fine if you don't want to pay that price, just move on to another option.


Quoting: Andy_Dick
This. Context is lost on the loudest here.

Trying to explain to doubters that Monahan is worth a 1st is the same mundane task as explaining the merits of Ben Chiarot and the marketplace opportunity. It's an open market with 31 other teams bidding.

You think he aint worth it, fine, but deal with it because other teams want a low cost AAV, w/o trade protection center that wins draws and can cary a line to the tune of a 50 point pace.

He's been carrying Gallagher and Evans, two 4th liners yet produces. Teams see that and want that kind of depth not to mention that same depth carried Vegas to a Stanley Cup.

I'm sure if another UFA in William Carrier form Vegas was available he'd go for a 1st yet he has less than half of Monahan's point totals.


Quoting: Campabee
So Jeanot by those logic is a top 6 player?! Teams that see themselves as having a good shot at a deep playoff run will trade what it takes to acquire the peices they think they need. Worth goes out the window when teams are trying to win


"I'm going to make a post telling you that your player isn't worth what he's worth, don't you dare post a rebuttal telling me I'm blatantly and obviously wrong...I won't have it!!"
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13 janv. à 10 h 12
#11
Banni
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Quoting: Just_A_Guess
"I'm going to make a post telling you that your player isn't worth what he's worth, don't you dare post a rebuttal telling me I'm blatantly and obviously wrong...I won't have it!!"


Easy bookmark material but it's honestly so predictable that the poster is wrong that it's boring. It's like waiting for a flat earther to admit they were wrong. Who cares they arent reasonable but biased and delusional. All these same posters have been wrong before like 2022 and will be wrong again meh
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13 janv. à 10 h 25
#12
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Quoting: Andy_Dick
Easy bookmark material but it's honestly so predictable that the poster is wrong that it's boring. It's like waiting for a flat earther to admit they were wrong. Who cares they arent reasonable but biased and delusional. All these same posters have been wrong before like 2022 and will be wrong again meh


Agreed, anymore it's simply a futile effort to attempt a conversation about it. Bleu, Blanc, Rouge means worth much less than market value to 31 fanbases.
13 janv. à 10 h 28
#13
Banni
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Quoting: Just_A_Guess
Agreed, anymore it's simply a futile effort to attempt a conversation about it. Bleu, Blanc, Rouge means worth much less than market value to 31 fanbases.


Its the same hate the other original 6 teams get from trolls of every other fan base. Ignore and move on. You can bump this thread after the deal but none of them are honest enough to admit their faulty reasoning.
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13 janv. à 12 h 43
#14
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Quoting: Andy_Dick
Do you realize that late 1st picks are, most likely, at best 3rd liners otherwise AHL scrubs? I dont think you realize the real worth of a late 1st.
Why you think the Yotes choose the Senators with a return that seemed underwhelming?! Because their 1st round pick would be in the high teens low 20s at worst.
A pick after about 22 picks OA has about a 5% chance of becoming a star player in the last 40 years. Not to mention this draft is incredibly shallow and CSS is throwing darts at a board after about 10-15 picks this season. This might be the year whjere 1st round picks from contenders are thrown around like candy and brandon tanevs do go for late 1sts!


A low 1st has a 20% chance of being an NHL regulars. By NHL regular, you can say 3rd liner since some will be 4th and some will be 2nd. So 3 years of a cheap 3rd liner and about 3 years of a semi-cheap 3rd liner. Is that worth half a season of an established 3rd liner?

If you think yes, that is your opinion. I don't share it.

If you don't like that, oh well I guess.
13 janv. à 12 h 49
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Quoting: Andy_Dick
Easy bookmark material but it's honestly so predictable that the poster is wrong that it's boring. It's like waiting for a flat earther to admit they were wrong. Who cares they arent reasonable but biased and delusional. All these same posters have been wrong before like 2022 and will be wrong again meh


Quoting: Andy_Dick
Its the same hate the other original 6 teams get from trolls of every other fan base. Ignore and move on. You can bump this thread after the deal but none of them are honest enough to admit their faulty reasoning.


It's funny because if you come back here in 2 months you will either A.) Say "I told you so" as Monahan got a 1st in return or B.) Say "They got robbed" as Monahan got less in return.

Both are false because they don't answer the question. If someone pays $1MM for a painting of dogs playing poker, that technically is it's value but I think most people will say they were fleeced.

The question is what is the concensus value. Was Granlund worth a 2nd when the Pens traded for him? No. You know who knew that? Everyone but Ron Hextall. There were Sharks fans on this site who said how much the Pens were robbed by Nashville. Now those same Sharks fans are saying Granlund is worth a 1st. He isn't. Neither is Monahan.

TLDR: Someone may pay a 1st for Monahan, but that doesn't mean he is worth it.
13 janv. à 12 h 54
#16
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Monahan is a pure rental and not that great a fit quite honestly. Raty is one of a very few center prospects and is only 21. Zero chance they give him up for Monahan. I could see a 3rd or a 4th and a middling prospect. Perhaps Aman?
13 janv. à 12 h 57
#17
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Quoting: Andy_Dick
This. Context is lost on the loudest here.

Trying to explain to doubters that Monahan is worth a 1st is the same mundane task as explaining the merits of Ben Chiarot and the marketplace opportunity. It's an open market with 31 other teams bidding.

You think he aint worth it, fine, but deal with it because other teams want a low cost AAV, w/o trade protection center that wins draws and can cary a line to the tune of a 50 point pace.

He's been carrying Gallagher and Evans, two 4th liners yet produces. Teams see that and want that kind of depth not to mention that same depth carried Vegas to a Stanley Cup.

I'm sure if another UFA in William Carrier form Vegas was available he'd go for a 1st yet he has less than half of Monahan's point totals.


Monahan isn’t exactly producing with Gallagher and Evans. He has 11 points at 5v5, which is tied for 262nd most in the league. Less 5v5 points than players like Cal Clutterbuck, Jimmy Vesey, Tyler Myers, OEL, Erik Gudbranson, and Pat Maroon.

Most of his production has come from the power play, which he wouldn’t play on for most contending teams.
13 janv. à 13 h 14
#18
westleysnipez
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Quoting: Jacko
Value is probably fair for Monahan but i expect someone to beat that offer closer to deadline IMHO
Raty’s issue is speed, right? Talented but slow?


No, he has very good foot speed and acceleration, plus he can play a 200 ft. game. Raty has been focusing on improving his consistency and defensive responsibilities in Abby this season, he'll be deployed against the other team's top lines and has looked good doing so. His consistency is the greatest challenge, but that's gotten better as the season as gone on and he's settled in.

I think he makes the Canucks next season as a 3c with Blueger likely gone.
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13 janv. à 13 h 16
#19
Go Habs Go
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Quoting: Victor24
A low 1st has a 20% chance of being an NHL regulars. By NHL regular, you can say 3rd liner since some will be 4th and some will be 2nd. So 3 years of a cheap 3rd liner and about 3 years of a semi-cheap 3rd liner. Is that worth half a season of an established 3rd liner?

If you think yes, that is your opinion. I don't share it.

If you don't like that, oh well I guess.


Quoting: Victor24
It's funny because if you come back here in 2 months you will either A.) Say "I told you so" as Monahan got a 1st in return or B.) Say "They got robbed" as Monahan got less in return.

Both are false because they don't answer the question. If someone pays $1MM for a painting of dogs playing poker, that technically is it's value but I think most people will say they were fleeced.

The question is what is the concensus value. Was Granlund worth a 2nd when the Pens traded for him? No. You know who knew that? Everyone but Ron Hextall. There were Sharks fans on this site who said how much the Pens were robbed by Nashville. Now those same Sharks fans are saying Granlund is worth a 1st. He isn't. Neither is Monahan.

TLDR: Someone may pay a 1st for Monahan, but that doesn't mean he is worth it.


Everyone knows the rental market is poor long term value. They still make those moves because that's what it takes to compete for a cup.
So yes, a temporary 3rd liner that helps you compete while you are in a position to do so, can be more valuable than a 3rd liner who might play for you for years down the road when you may not be in the same position.

If you can acknowledge that someone might pay a 1st for a player, you are going to have to propose that much for a "realistic value".
That doesn't mean your team is the one willing to pay that price, but it does mean your proposal has to offer a reason Montreal should trade him to your team instead.
"I don't think he's worth what he will get somewhere else" is a faulty premise for a trade suggestion.

(I'm using "you" generically. I know this wasn't your proposal.)
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13 janv. à 13 h 32
#20
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Quoting: ricochetii
Everyone knows the rental market is poor long term value. They still make those moves because that's what it takes to compete for a cup.
So yes, a temporary 3rd liner that helps you compete while you are in a position to do so, can be more valuable than a 3rd liner who might play for you for years down the road when you may not be in the same position.

If you can acknowledge that someone might pay a 1st for a player, you are going to have to propose that much for a "realistic value".
That doesn't mean your team is the one willing to pay that price, but it does mean your proposal has to offer a reason Montreal should trade him to your team instead.
"I don't think he's worth what he will get somewhere else" is a faulty premise for a trade suggestion.

(I'm using "you" generically. I know this wasn't your proposal.)


Yeah, and I get what you're saying. But look at the rumored price for Guentzel. A low 1st, a blue chip guy (call it a high 1st), and an NHL regular.

If I'm a team debating who is going all in, I'm looking to trade my 1st as part of a package for a needle mover. I would rather trade a great prospect and a 1st for that guy that takes me over the top compared to trading a 1st for a guy who might help as depth. You can disagree and I respect that, but that's my opinion.
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13 janv. à 14 h 8
#21
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Quoting: Victor24
Yeah, and I get what you're saying. But look at the rumored price for Guentzel. A low 1st, a blue chip guy (call it a high 1st), and an NHL regular.

If I'm a team debating who is going all in, I'm looking to trade my 1st as part of a package for a needle mover. I would rather trade a great prospect and a 1st for that guy that takes me over the top compared to trading a 1st for a guy who might help as depth. You can disagree and I respect that, but that's my opinion.


Everyone would prefer that. The market dictates who's available and the cap limits what a team can reasonably accomplish.
The only rental center comparable to Monahan who is rumored available, is Lindholm, and that's not yet certain. You're also paying a premium and expecting a sign and trade.
Not sure Vancouver is in the position to do that.

It's possible a better option presents itself, but they will all be longer term commitments.
The best options for pure rentals are Lindholm, Monahan, Novak, Dickinson. Two of those may not end up being available at all (Lindholm, Novak).
Monahan may end up being not only the top available C rental, but the most cap friendly.
The supply is low and the demand will be high.

Picking up someone cheaper, less impactful, or more expensive and better are of course options, but there are a lot more considerations than simply adding when you go outside the rental pool.
By all means find a better target and use of assets if you can. You always want to do what's best for your team and Monahan may not be it.
You just aren't going to get him for less than what the market will bear and Montreal isn't going to trade him for less than the highest offer.
If you don't think the offer you are proposing is going to be the highest, why are you making it? (Again, not you!)
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13 janv. à 14 h 38
#22
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Quoting: ricochetii
Everyone would prefer that. The market dictates who's available and the cap limits what a team can reasonably accomplish.
The only rental center comparable to Monahan who is rumored available, is Lindholm, and that's not yet certain. You're also paying a premium and expecting a sign and trade.
Not sure Vancouver is in the position to do that.

It's possible a better option presents itself, but they will all be longer term commitments.
The best options for pure rentals are Lindholm, Monahan, Novak, Dickinson. Two of those may not end up being available at all (Lindholm, Novak).
Monahan may end up being not only the top available C rental, but the most cap friendly.
The supply is low and the demand will be high.

Picking up someone cheaper, less impactful, or more expensive and better are of course options, but there are a lot more considerations than simply adding when you go outside the rental pool.
By all means find a better target and use of assets if you can. You always want to do what's best for your team and Monahan may not be it.
You just aren't going to get him for less than what the market will bear and Montreal isn't going to trade him for less than the highest offer.
If you don't think the offer you are proposing is going to be the highest, why are you making it? (Again, not you!)


100%

The thing that would scare me away from Monahan for too high a price is his injury risk and his effectiveness (not great 5v5). Looking at the forward rentals who might get traded, Monahan is definitely in the top 10 and if someone misses out, they could reach, but it would likely be a situation like Granlund where it was a bad deal for the cost.

At the end of the day, we aren't far off. If I think Monahan is worth a 2nd, the OP thinks he is worth a 3rd + a prospect (B / B+), you think he is worth a 1st (that is speculation, as I'm not sure if you gave an evaluation of his worth). The 3rd could end up being a star, the 1st could be a bust.

I (personally) would rather not trade a 1st for him (for reasons above) but that us just my opinion.
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13 janv. à 15 h 18
#23
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Quoting: Victor24
100%

The thing that would scare me away from Monahan for too high a price is his injury risk and his effectiveness (not great 5v5). Looking at the forward rentals who might get traded, Monahan is definitely in the top 10 and if someone misses out, they could reach, but it would likely be a situation like Granlund where it was a bad deal for the cost.

At the end of the day, we aren't far off. If I think Monahan is worth a 2nd, the OP thinks he is worth a 3rd + a prospect (B / B+), you think he is worth a 1st (that is speculation, as I'm not sure if you gave an evaluation of his worth). The 3rd could end up being a star, the 1st could be a bust.

I (personally) would rather not trade a 1st for him (for reasons above) but that us just my opinion.


I believe a 1st(+) is a possibility, but he should be moved for the best return even if there isn't a 1st available.
I'm not concerned about injury (not more than any other player, anyone can catch a puck or twist wrong at any given moment).
I am concerned about long term durability (he's had hip surgeries, so his clock is ticking). He's fine for this season and maybe a couple more, but I wouldn't give him much term on an extension.
His PP/ES point spread isn't a concern. He hasn't been set up for success in either situation. His production is notable in spite of that.

The only real barrier to the possibility of a 1st, is how many will be made available after so many teams went in hard last year.
The market is always variable and value is always a range rather than a hard price.
There's room for a range of proposals, as long as the reasoning is sound for either team to accept that as the price.
Victor24 a aimé ceci.
 
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