LumberJacques

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Canadiens de Montréal
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Forum: Armchair-GMWed at 11:02 am
Forum: Armchair-GM13 oct à 16 h 18
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drewjenkins</b></div><div><strong>I just had an identical convo with someone else so I'll repost:</strong>


<strong>HIM ---------------------------------------</strong>


Kotkaniemi: bridge deal
Gallagher: some sort of deal
Danault: dealt somewhere
Tatar: Either dealt somewhere or let walk
Armia: gone unless he’s takes under 2mil
Lehkonen: Probably taken by Kraken
Hudon: who actually f ing cares
Mete: we will see how he does
Backup: Primeau on ELC

All solved. Questions?


<strong>ME ---------------------------------------</strong>


OK I'll go with what you wrote:

Kotkaniemi: bridge deal ($5,000,000)?
Gallagher: some sort of deal ($7,000,000)?
Danault: dealt somewhere (last years best overall center gone)
Tatar: Either dealt somewhere or let walk (last years top scorer gone)
Armia: gone unless he’s takes under 2mil (last years best 3rd liner gone)
Lehkonen: Probably taken by Kraken (solid middle 6 winger gone)
Hudon: who actually f ing cares (fair enough)
Mete: we will see how he does ($2,000,000)?
Backup: Primeau on ELC ($800,000)?

Total = $15,000,000 spent on 4 players.

** You now have $12,000,000 in cap-space left and 10 more players needed for a 23 man roster ($1,200,000 per player).
** Your center ice is now made up of = Kotkaniemi - Suzuki - Poehling (non of which are proven top-6 centers at this point).
** You're missing your top scorers from the last 2 years (Domi + Tatar) and your top 2-way forwards from the last 2 years (Danault + Armia)
** Price + Weber + Petry will all be 1 year deeper into their mid to late 30's .
** The 10 new guys will have to average close to league minimum salaries.


<strong>HIM ---------------------------------------</strong>


Kotkaniemi doesn't get a 5 million dollar bridge deal unless he becomes an Elite center, which then there is no need for Danault.
Gallagher at 7 Million is too much. He will likely get 5.5-6 and if not he's gone.
Mete doesn't get 2 million and there's rumours he's being shopped now so.
Do the math and it's not hard to see Montreal can do it with Tatar walking


<strong>ME ---------------------------------------</strong>


OK I'll go with it again and do the math.

You save $1,500,000 on Kotkaniemi if he signs for $3,500,000.
You save $1,500,000 on Gallagher if he signs for $5,500,000.
You save $1,000,000 on Mete if he signs for $1,000,000.

The team is identical - But now you have $16,000,000 in cap-space with 10 more players needed for a 23 man roster ($1,600,000 per player).
Ten players averaging $1,600,000 million can't be expected to be a very good on average (Ex - If you sign 2 guys at $4,000,000 the rest have to be mins / ELC's).
And those 10 incoming players will be the ones replacing Danault + Tatar + Armia + Lehkonen + Allen.
Even high end prospects will be hard pressed to replace a 70 point guy + experienced 2 way players.
It will be tough to not take a step back.</div></div>

Ok... First off the guys coming in don't have to replace the production of Danault, Tatar etc. They have to replace that of Suzuki, KK and those getting promoted who will be expected to increase their production. So more along the lines of 30-40 or so points which isn't exactly the most difficult thing to find.

Secondly, simply moving Byron and/or Kulak would be an easy way to open up a decent chunk of space short term.

IMO (just from your team above):
Remove Tatar
Shave $2.5M off KK(bridge)
Remove Armia
Shave $1M off Lehky

Sum total =$14M saved/ ~$1.7M cap space with 2 spots to fill. That's without trading away any contracts which would make things even easier.

Quite possible I think.
Forum: Armchair-GM21 sep à 11 h 14
Forum: Armchair-GM21 sep à 10 h 18
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dan10900</b></div><div>QoC is largely irrelevant, if you take out the top and bottom 5% of players QoC, the middle 90% is all within like 0.1 Opp xGF/60, plus didn't Mete play a lot with Weber (and that paid had better results than Chiarot-Weber) and Kulak a lot with Petry, which wouldn't get as tough if deployment, but wouldn't get sheltered at all</div></div>

Yes, in 18-19 Mete played with Weber and had comparable metrics but the biggest difference was Mete's weakness against the cycle. Once the play got set up in the D zone they really struggled to get out. The 19-20 season Mete spent most of the season on the 3rd pair with Kulak, Fleury and Folin mostly. He also had a stint in the AHL.

Chiarot on the other hand is weaker at rush defense but much stronger against the cycle and in front of the net. He's also strangely better offensively and gets more from Weber offensively as well.

Kulak for his part had played with Petry in 18-19 and did so quite well. This season he struggled a bit to start and was rotated in and out a bit with mixed results. He played really well with Petry in the playoffs and wasn't as sheltered as the regular season. If he had more consistency he'd probably have solidified his top 4 spot by now.

In short both Kulak and Mete thrive in more sheltered 3rd pair roles but have mixed results playing bigger roles. Chiarot's advantage is he rarely makes huge mistakes or turns pucks over in the D zone by keeping it simple. Ideally he'd be better suited to a more fringe top 4 role like a 4-5 Dman facing top competition a bit less but the inconsistent play of the other LHD makes that impossible.
Forum: Armchair-GM20 sep à 13 h 33