Gotta read between the lines here.

CJ "figures" north of 11
EF refuses to mention anything as far as terms

Not saying that it won't be 11+...but the key guys are being careful with their words and the guys that like to stir the pot are saying $11m+

Personally I don't care much what he makes, he'll be worth it. My issue is entirely how these negotiations were handled by Treliving. He tried to play hardball and immediately realized he lost and has likely been playing catch up and its going to cost a million + a year more on Willy's deal.

Imagine if he signs for under 10m (Bratt deal 9.85m x 8 years)

Brady and Willy get statues outside MLSE lul

But in all seriousness I think the deals gonna be at least 10.5m but would not shock me if its 11m x 8 years like JT (minus a year but u get it)


Also for those wanting % use comparable Nylander contract using Johnny Gaudreau contract from 2022 as comparable



9.75x82.5=11.82% and even calculated it at 10.5m x 82.5 = 12.73%


So using that for Willy rn with the cap going to 87.7m

11.82% x 87.7m = 10.37m and if we use 12.73% = 11.16m

If we use Pastranak

13.64% = 11.96m (Yea not happening lul)

The one difference here is: Willy is replaceable... You can replicate his impact via 2 guys...

You can't replicate Matthews, Mackinnon or McDavid's impact...

That I dont believe. Willy is really not entirely replaceable. There arent many 40 goal scoring wingers out there who are in his age range and who are good

Rn there are only two

Guentzel and Reinhardt and those two also wont come cheap (9.5-10.5m)

And sure u can go out and get 2 guys who can get you 20 goals but that still dont replace Willy.

In order for Toronto to adequately replace Willy they would have to sign someone better but nobody out there in 2024 and even if there was he would cost more than 11m

Nick Robertson being scratched 2 games for Holmberg makes no sense he had b2b goals and thats the reward lul. How about HS Bobby McMann lul whats he done

Holmberg-Kampf-Gregor should be fine as a 4th line and Keefe a sense of what Holmberg is

So was doing some % stuff for Willy as there people be insisting on it

If we use Gaudreau from last year when he had 115 points

11.82% x 87.7m = 10.37m and if we use the deal he was offered in CGY 12.73% x 87.7m = 11.16m

If we use Pastranak

13.64% = 11.96m (Yea not happening lul)

So yea Nylander's deal will be using % and the closest point comparable

Between 10.37m to 11.16m is Willy's contract range

So if we take those two ranges and meet in the middle Nylander's next deal may be.... 10.765m x 8 years

https://twitter.com/search?q=%22William%20Nylander%22&src=trend_click&vertical=trends

But if what CJ is saying is true where Willy asking for 11.5m I would say to him good luck as nobody in FA besides a bottom feeder gonna give him that

If Tavares was making $7m and Nylander was making $11m....would anyone still want to punt Nylander?

I mean I would be wondering how Willy got to 11m all those years ago lul

That would have been viewed as the biggest negotiation fumble in NHL history

As back in 2018-2019 would u honestly say Willy was worth 11m (b2b 61 point season)


And just meming JT at 7m would have been a shocker considering SJS offered him 13m x 5 years. Now thats a HT discount lul


In general its gonna be a bit tough to justify it when we see the big picture rn. As playoffs have been an issue and when u got 4 guys eating a bunch of the cap aint easy to make a strong team.

But anyways im in a lets wait and see. I hope its not 11.25m and closer to 10.5m but who knows. As in the end I dont want to lose him for nothing unless it guarantees us something better (i.e. McDavid in 2 years lul)

Not the point. Try fast forwarding to 2yrs from now. If Willy is at 11 and JT is at, what? $5? $7? That seems ok to me.

Honestly I just don't want an 8yr deal at that amount

It all would depend on playoffs for me

If we dont have much success than yea having 3 guys in double digits gonna be viewed as same old same old especially once they get past their primes or were at year 3 of Matthews 4 year deal.

Cause if they continue to not have much success doesnt really matter whose making what even if we swap JT and Nylanders money at this point lul

But yea if an 8 year deal will keep the cap hit down im all for it

No you can't. Two secondary players will not replicate what Willy does. Domi and another player similar does not do what Willy does. When you need a big goal right now, he's making it happen. Matthews does as well but you aren't ever taking Willy out of those moments for Domi and think, this is just as good. Come on. Can you replace Matthews with Lindholm and Monahan? No you can't. And yes William Nylander is absolutely playing that well right now. If they trade him for some Norris calibre defender who is the same age and will have term, I will think it's a mistake but who's that? Letting Willy go is just the absolute wrong move. But Treliving should have predicted this and just got the deal done in the off season. Willy signs for 11+, oh well. I wish it was less and it should be but Treliving lost and they don't really have a choice. Nylander isn't going to take his money and just check out, he's extremely competitive. I bet he has two more years like this or even still better and remains an elite player for quite a while. He's durable and plays a game that should keep him from too much wear and tear. Trading Nylander just doesn't make sense, you either get a poor return, likely Treliving trades him for a defenceman who's on the wrong side of 30 and makes a terrible FA signing that very likely takes years off our contending window. Sign Nylander get him for 8 and then figure out next season. It'll be a challenge but maybe you get lucky and some younger guys step up. There is still room to add a defenceman. It forces compromises elsewhere but Woll makes it a bit easier since he has another year of term. He'll come back and be fine and be really good for TO.

I think you are underestimating how good Nylander is. I guarantee many teams would be interested and would figure out how they could make it work. This isn't a "contract year bump" it's a player finding a new level of play. And he still can be better still. Willy is betting on himself and he's going to keep growing. Anyone getting mad at him for getting his value is misplacing their emotions. As I have said many times, Treliving lost these negotiations. He should have got it done in the off season. Maybe it would have only been 10 million but Nylander looks every bit the 11 million dollar player.

I am fine with the term. While I generally agree with your sentiment on it. I also think Willy's a guy that will last longer than many. His style of play will keep him healthy. He should still be operating a high rate into mid 30's. Matthews next deal is likely going to be 8 years, maybe you never know with him but I bet he declines faster than Willy will.

Tree really didnt lose the negotiations as there are many factors to consider.

Lets say he signed Willy to 10m x 8 years

Willy finishes the season with 25 goals and 40 assists for 65 points

That gonna look good no. People gonna go why we giving this guy 10m

These are the gambles GM's go through

You either play hardball and risk losing them or you give in and give them what they want. In general negotiations arent done and things are still to be determined


Should be 10-10.5m but who knows where its going


As for Willy I think your overestimating him lul. Hes good but not Pasta good

He to me is a 80-90 point 30-40 goal RW

Leafsfanforsomereason post shows the differences and justifications for why this could get ugly lul.

But yea while this is a great season got a feeling this is classic contract year fever. Hes playing to get that big payday. Once he gets it the question is what happens. Does he go back to 80 points or is what were seeing gonna continue. Based on past stuff its 50/50

In the end hes not worth Pasta money not even close as that man's done more and is basically the better RW. If Nylander asking for the same or more than Pasta really consider move on. Put the 10.5m deal in front and go this is it take it or bye


Anyways its a wait and see

But yea with Rienhardt and Guentzel being estimated between 9-10m might be worth risking

The great irony of one draft was in 2020 we traded down from the 44 OA pick but got 59 OA and 64 OA pick those became Hirvonen and Niemala

While both look interesting (especially Niemela) heres the irony

1 spot lower from the pick we traded to go down = Faber

https://twitter.com/MeghanChayka/status/1742991977216684123

Either path is fine but man Faber on this blue line next to McCabe would be nice lul

Would you say he's a Patrick Kane style player? I just look at guys that play a similar style and by 34-35 you don't want to be paying them at the top end of the spectrum. Sometimes that's just the cost of doing business to get the guy signed through his prime...but I don't think he's going to be worth it in years 6-8

Yes it is. I’m mean there’s no way of knowing for sure but he’s 27 years old and his career high is 87 points. Which is great. But I think it’s very much wishful thinking to think he’s suddenly going to consistently eclipse 100+ points every year.

We also have to think about this logically. This isn't all Treliving coming in and playing hardball in the summer. He's gonna be conferring with everyone....Shanny, Priham, Keefe, Pro Scouting, etc...all these guys in the room giving their input on what they see for Willy moving forward and then Tre goes out and tries to execute that plan.

To think he comes in late Spring and unilaterally decides how and how much he's gonna approach re-signing Matthews and Nylander just a couple months later is an absolutely wrong way to look at it

He's gotten better each year and is now getting more ice time. I'm in the camp that doesn't think this is just a 1-time performance for him

Also....listened to 32 thoughts podcast last night and now EF is acknowledging the $11.25m figure....saying it's on the table for him to sign...and ALSO saying that it's Michael Nylander that is telling Willy to keep holding out for more

I wonder what the cost would be to get Shane Pinto out of OTT.

A ton of upside with him (2C potential) and would slot in nicely on the 3rd line right now.

I hated hearing them say TOR is willing “to concede” and just wants it done.

that language doesn't instill much confidence...I agree. Player bet on himself to succeed...team bet on him to stagnate...player won, team concedes.

But as much as I want Willy signed...I think mentally I'm not going to get past $11.25m because there isn't any rationale behind it....it basically becomes a Toronto tax...or Willy's camp (ie his dad if the report is accurate)...just wants to bend the team over and squeeze every last ounce out.

I want to hope the team simply says that this is our best and final offer. If you go on top pot 50goals and 120 points and win the Hart...this is still our top offer. You need to decide if you want to play in Toronto or go to free agency and hope you get the same offer from a team that actually gives you a chance to win.....and front loading/bonus everything to maximize his time value of money....but the line in the sand needs to be drawn at that number

I just find it hard to believe there is a team that would go to get to 80 million (7x11.42)

I would put on the table 8x10 and say take it or leave it until the TDL or we trade you. If you want to be here great but if you want to risk getting less or to team that might not be as competitive as TOR then so be it.

You just can’t let him walk for nothing but I hate this notion of bending over for him.