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Leafs 2023 2024 Season Discussion Part 3 - Winter Blues

6 janv. à 11 h 26
#526
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Quoting: MatthewsFan
I just find it hard to believe there is a team that would go to get to 80 million (7x11.42)

I would put on the table 8x10 and say take it or leave it until the TDL or we trade you. If you want to be here great but if you want to risk getting less or to team that might not be as competitive as TOR then so be it.

You just can’t let him walk for nothing but I hate this notion of bending over for him.


Just let him know he has until Feb 23rd to return one of the following documents:
a) signed contract that has already been offered and will not be increased, or
b) his 10 team no trade list.

That gives the team 2wks to work on a potential trade ahead of the deadline and makes it real for him that he might not be with this team to the end of the year
6 janv. à 11 h 36
#527
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Quoting: Juice
Would you say he's a Patrick Kane style player? I just look at guys that play a similar style and by 34-35 you don't want to be paying them at the top end of the spectrum. Sometimes that's just the cost of doing business to get the guy signed through his prime...but I don't think he's going to be worth it in years 6-8


Kane's hip ended him. I bet Willy at 34 is still above a point a game. Even in his last year he'll be in the 70's but by then hopefully we have had at least 1 cup win
6 janv. à 11 h 39
#528
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Quoting: Saskleaf
Yes it is. I’m mean there’s no way of knowing for sure but he’s 27 years old and his career high is 87 points. Which is great. But I think it’s very much wishful thinking to think he’s suddenly going to consistently eclipse 100+ points every year.


Why? Is he not talented enough to do so? There are players who go from 60 points and then have a monster year and get a huge pay increase but all the underlying numbers point towards the big year being an outlier. There is nothing in Willy's game to suggest this is an outlier. He's right around his career shooting percentage, he's generating the scoring chances at a high rate. He's increased his consistency every season since he signed his last contract. And he can still get better. To call this just an outlier season is just wrong.
6 janv. à 11 h 42
#529
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Quoting: Juice
Just let him know he has until Feb 23rd to return one of the following documents:
a) signed contract that has already been offered and will not be increased, or
b) his 10 team no trade list.

That gives the team 2wks to work on a potential trade ahead of the deadline and makes it real for him that he might not be with this team to the end of the year


You may as well just trade him then. Willy's agent has won this negotiation. It's over, sign him or trade him and you are getting a terrible return if you trade him right now. It's over, we have to live with him getting more than we all would like but Treliving missed his chance. Had he signed him to 10 million in the off season (maybe there was a shot at 9.5) everyone would have been mad for like 10 games and then been praising Treliving for how good a deal that would have been. Instead he did just as you suggest, play hard ball. And he lost. Doubling down will just wreck the team.
6 janv. à 12 h 35
#530
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Quoting: RipNasty
You may as well just trade him then. Willy's agent has won this negotiation. It's over, sign him or trade him and you are getting a terrible return if you trade him right now. It's over, we have to live with him getting more than we all would like but Treliving missed his chance. Had he signed him to 10 million in the off season (maybe there was a shot at 9.5) everyone would have been mad for like 10 games and then been praising Treliving for how good a deal that would have been. Instead he did just as you suggest, play hard ball. And he lost. Doubling down will just wreck the team.


My point is coming from this understanding that the offer is there on the table for him to accept but it's apparently his dad encouraging him to hold out for more. So I think it's ultimatum time. For me, $11.25 is above and beyond.....and the blame for not signing him in the offseason gets shared all around....no chance that's just treliving coming in with 2mths and makes that decision on his own. Everyone from pro scouts to Keefe to Shanny is going to be giving their input on what an off-season offer should have been.

I get it, you hate Treliving...and Keefe....and Shanny...not looking to try and change anybody's mind....but we just really don't know how those internal strategy meetings took place, who wanted what, and how the Nylander camp was approached.

All I know is if Michael Nylander is sticking his nose into this and insisting on making Willy push more than he really wants to....you gotta ultimatum this thing...either take the deal that's on the table or submit your trade list so we can start to move on....

and I'm a huge believer in using your own pending free agents like rentals and previously would have rather seen him walk as a UFA than trade him at the deadline...but if these reports are true, I think you have to make him make his choice
6 janv. à 12 h 48
#531
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Quoting: Juice
All I know is if Michael Nylander is sticking his nose into this and insisting on making Willy push more than he really wants to....you gotta ultimatum this thing...either take the deal that's on the table or submit your trade list so we can start to move on....

I always assumed players submit a perpetual "list" so the team does not have to give any warning of an impending trade.
Periodically, maybe a few times a year, player can revise their list.
Although I am not sure.

If we sort of assume this years team is not the best chance of a Cup in the past 4 years or next 3 - would it make sense to trade Willy at deadline for future (2 or 3 years from now) assets, and then sign him in the off-season and overpay him then. Whatever assets they get back are likely more valuable than the extra $0.5M might be as a cap hit.
6 janv. à 12 h 50
#532
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Modifié 6 janv. à 13 h 8
Quoting: Juice
We also have to think about this logically. This isn't all Treliving coming in and playing hardball in the summer. He's gonna be conferring with everyone....Shanny, Priham, Keefe, Pro Scouting, etc...all these guys in the room giving their input on what they see for Willy moving forward and then Tre goes out and tries to execute that plan.

To think he comes in late Spring and unilaterally decides how and how much he's gonna approach re-signing Matthews and Nylander just a couple months later is an absolutely wrong way to look at it


Yep. Like lets be real Matthews u have to bend to. Whatever he wants give it as u cant lose a top 3 center for nothing. That = rebuild

Nylanders a bit different. While hes not easily replaceable this is where you should play a little hardball and the same applies to Marner


These two are the ones you need to be firm with in negotiations. Nylander wants 11-11.5m no
6 janv. à 13 h 51
#533
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Quoting: Messier99
I always assumed players submit a perpetual "list" so the team does not have to give any warning of an impending trade.
Periodically, maybe a few times a year, player can revise their list.
Although I am not sure.

If we sort of assume this years team is not the best chance of a Cup in the past 4 years or next 3 - would it make sense to trade Willy at deadline for future (2 or 3 years from now) assets, and then sign him in the off-season and overpay him then. Whatever assets they get back are likely more valuable than the extra $0.5M might be as a cap hit.


From what I understand, either scenario is possible. I'm not sure if it's specified in the actual contact...but some have to submit the list at the beginning of the contract year (July 1) and some have to submit upon request.
6 janv. à 13 h 58
#534
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Quoting: aadoyle
Yep. Like lets be real Matthews u have to bend to. Whatever he wants give it as u cant lose a top 3 center for nothing. That = rebuild

Nylanders a bit different. While hes not easily replaceable this is where you should play a little hardball and the same applies to Marner
These two are the ones you need to be firm with in negotiations. Nylander wants 11-11.5m no



I think we can all agree that Matthews could have gotten more if he pushed for it....but he didn't...although he got a term that still allows him to tack on another big payday. But his number fell between McKinnon and McDavid from a % stand point and that makes sense

Nylander should fall between Gaudreau and Pasta...so I can understand the $11.25 range. Makes him one of the top paid players in the league and slots him accurately amongst his peers.

What I don't get behind is pushing things past the point of reason simply because you think you can....and, assuming these reports are at least somewhat accurate...you need to let his camp know they've pushed this past that line of reason...and they can either come back to earth or piss off
6 janv. à 14 h 6
#535
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Modifié 6 janv. à 14 h 26
Quoting: Juice
I think we can all agree that Matthews could have gotten more if he pushed for it....but he didn't...although he got a term that still allows him to tack on another big payday. But his number fell between McKinnon and McDavid from a % stand point and that makes sense

Nylander should fall between Gaudreau and Pasta...so I can understand the $11.25 range. Makes him one of the top paid players in the league and slots him accurately amongst his peers.

What I don't get behind is pushing things past the point of reason simply because you think you can....and, assuming these reports are at least somewhat accurate...you need to let his camp know they've pushed this past that line of reason...and they can either come back to earth or piss off


To me when using the percentage trick the number I found was 10.765m That should be the max

As that is between both Gaudreau contract percentages he was offered during his 115 point season

Since I cannot confirm the NJ one (10m x 7 years) I didnt use it. But we know Huberdeau's deal was Johny's deal offered by CGY so i used it for the max

But yea The number was 10.765m

Now if we just take take the inbetween of 9.75m and 11.25m its 10.5m


So Willy should make between 10.5m to 10.765m thats my guess

But as to when this is signed I got a feeling its TDL. But man if he making more than Pasta that gonna look ugly lul
6 janv. à 14 h 16
#536
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Quoting: aadoyle
To me when using the percentage trick the number I found was 10.765m That should be the max

As that is between both Gaudreau contract percentages he was offered during his 115 point season

Since I cannot confirm the NJ one (10m x 7 years) I didnt use it. But we know Huberdeau's deal was Johny's deal offered by CGY so i used it for the max

But yea The number was 10.765m

Now if we just take take the inbetween of 9.75m and 11.25m its 10.5m


So Willy should make between 10.5m to 10.765m thats my guess

But as to when this is signed I got a feeling its TDL.


Gaudreau got $9.75m based on a cap ceiling of $82.5m which is an 11.82% stake

Pasta got $11.25m based on an $83.5m cap ceiling which is 13.47%

If the logic is that Nylander falls in between those two percentage...and probably argues he should be closer to Pasta than Gaudreau...you fall into the 12.65% - $12.85%.

Apply that to a cap ceiling of $87.7 and you get to the $11.2 range
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6 janv. à 14 h 22
#537
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Also...if he's not signing at the number offered...I have to think they need to know this asap...and know what number he WILL sign for....then try and see if there's a team out there willing to give him that so you can work a trade with them, and allow them to speak with Nylander's camp so they can pre-negotiate an extension.

Would Calgary swap some pending UFA's for Bill? Tanev and Lindholm with conditional picks based on re-signings on each side/

Would Seattle part with Eberle + assets like Wright, Larsson, 2nd rounder, etc?...something there could work where Eberle fills in the 2RW role and we get compensated for the difference between him and Billy

I dunno. In 24hrs I've gone from accepting that $11.25m is something we should accept and stomach to wanting to trade the guy if his camp wants to bleed every possible penny out of the situation
6 janv. à 14 h 27
#538
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Quoting: Juice
Also...if he's not signing at the number offered...I have to think they need to know this asap...and know what number he WILL sign for....then try and see if there's a team out there willing to give him that so you can work a trade with them, and allow them to speak with Nylander's camp so they can pre-negotiate an extension.

Would Calgary swap some pending UFA's for Bill? Tanev and Lindholm with conditional picks based on re-signings on each side/

Would Seattle part with Eberle + assets like Wright, Larsson, 2nd rounder, etc?...something there could work where Eberle fills in the 2RW role and we get compensated for the difference between him and Billy

I dunno. In 24hrs I've gone from accepting that $11.25m is something we should accept and stomach to wanting to trade the guy if his camp wants to bleed every possible penny out of the situation


If im moving Willy I try for a sign and trade like Tkachuck.

And the team I could see do it = SEA
6 janv. à 15 h 16
#539
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Quoting: Juice
He's gotten better each year and is now getting more ice time. I'm in the camp that doesn't think this is just a 1-time performance for him


I think he can be a point a game player consistently. Maybe even 90+. But 100 points every year? I’m not so sure. I’d love to be wrong if he sticks around
6 janv. à 15 h 20
#540
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Quoting: aadoyle
If im moving Willy I try for a sign and trade like Tkachuck.

And the team I could see do it = SEA


Difference between sign and trade like tkachuk and a pre-negotiated extension with the acquiring team is that 8th year. When tkachuk was traded only the flames could give the 8th year, so technically the extension with Florida was agreed to and Calgary did the paperwork first.

If Willy is dealt at the deadline the acquiring team can give the 8th year
6 janv. à 15 h 21
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Quoting: Saskleaf
I think he can be a point a game player consistently. Maybe even 90+. But 100 points every year? I’m not so sure. I’d love to be wrong if he sticks around


You’re almost certainly not wrong. Very few players get 100+ every year.
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6 janv. à 15 h 25
#542
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Quoting: RipNasty
Why? Is he not talented enough to do so? There are players who go from 60 points and then have a monster year and get a huge pay increase but all the underlying numbers point towards the big year being an outlier. There is nothing in Willy's game to suggest this is an outlier. He's right around his career shooting percentage, he's generating the scoring chances at a high rate. He's increased his consistency every season since he signed his last contract. And he can still get better. To call this just an outlier season is just wrong.


I mean hey I’m not basing on anything scientific and I don’t really know anything but I don’t think it’s a good idea to give a guy who’s previous career high is 87 points 11 mil (in other words the type of money you give consistent 100+ point scorers)
6 janv. à 15 h 27
#543
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Quoting: Juice
You’re almost certainly not wrong. Very few players get 100+ every year.


Yes, and my point is 11.25 is the type of money consistent 100 point players get.
6 janv. à 15 h 34
#544
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Quoting: Saskleaf
Yes, and my point is 11.25 is the type of money consistent 100 point players get.


Recently. Yes. But moving forward with an 87.7m cap ceiling and possibly climbing, I think those goal posts move back a bit
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6 janv. à 15 h 47
#545
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Quoting: Juice
Difference between sign and trade like tkachuk and a pre-negotiated extension with the acquiring team is that 8th year. When tkachuk was traded only the flames could give the 8th year, so technically the extension with Florida was agreed to and Calgary did the paperwork first.

If Willy is dealt at the deadline the acquiring team can give the 8th year


True but a lot of GM's do like not having to negotiate a new deal with said guys as it can be time consuming and a hastle.

If he came with contract extension in place could see a team pay a good chunk in comparison to if he wasnt coming with one

As saving yourself a headache can be viewed as valuable lul
6 janv. à 15 h 50
#546
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Quoting: aadoyle
True but a lot of GM's do like not having to negotiate a new deal with said guys as it can be time consuming and a hastle.

If he came with contract extension in place could see a team pay a good chunk in comparison to if he wasnt coming with one

As saving yourself a headache can be viewed as valuable lul


Ok. But you don’t actually think team and player work out an extension and then the GM goes ‘haha. Gotcha! You’re traded!’
as soon as he signs.

It’s all pre worked out with the current club, acquiring club and player. Sign and trade is simply a term used to describe a scenario where the deadline has passed and therefore the original team has to give the extension in order for the player to get 8yrs.

Has absolutely nothing to do with headaches
6 janv. à 16 h 13
#547
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Quoting: RipNasty
No you can't. Two secondary players will not replicate what Willy does. Domi and another player similar does not do what Willy does. When you need a big goal right now, he's making it happen. Matthews does as well but you aren't ever taking Willy out of those moments for Domi and think, this is just as good. Come on. Can you replace Matthews with Lindholm and Monahan? No you can't. And yes William Nylander is absolutely playing that well right now. If they trade him for some Norris calibre defender who is the same age and will have term, I will think it's a mistake but who's that? Letting Willy go is just the absolute wrong move. But Treliving should have predicted this and just got the deal done in the off season. Willy signs for 11+, oh well. I wish it was less and it should be but Treliving lost and they don't really have a choice. Nylander isn't going to take his money and just check out, he's extremely competitive. I bet he has two more years like this or even still better and remains an elite player for quite a while. He's durable and plays a game that should keep him from too much wear and tear. Trading Nylander just doesn't make sense, you either get a poor return, likely Treliving trades him for a defenceman who's on the wrong side of 30 and makes a terrible FA signing that very likely takes years off our contending window. Sign Nylander get him for 8 and then figure out next season. It'll be a challenge but maybe you get lucky and some younger guys step up. There is still room to add a defenceman. It forces compromises elsewhere but Woll makes it a bit easier since he has another year of term. He'll come back and be fine and be really good for TO.


I just said: "You can't replace Matthews but you can Nylander" and you went on about how difficult it would be to replace Nylander like it were Matthews

News flash: Nobody on the Toronto Maple Leafs is close to Auston Matthews, so don't use him as a comp to anybody else

And there is someone available for trade that would directly replace Nylander: Andrei Kuzmenko...

Then you can use the remaining money to sign a defensemen, Bert, Domi and more
6 janv. à 16 h 47
#548
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Quoting: Leafsfan98
I just said: "You can't replace Matthews but you can Nylander" and you went on about how difficult it would be to replace Nylander like it were Matthews

News flash: Nobody on the Toronto Maple Leafs is close to Auston Matthews, so don't use him as a comp to anybody else

And there is someone available for trade that would directly replace Nylander: Andrei Kuzmenko...

Then you can use the remaining money to sign a defensemen, Bert, Domi and more


Sorry no Kuzmenko is not a “direct replacement” for Nylander.
6 janv. à 16 h 49
#549
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Modifié 6 janv. à 16 h 57
Quoting: Leafsfan98
I just said: "You can't replace Matthews but you can Nylander" and you went on about how difficult it would be to replace Nylander like it were Matthews

News flash: Nobody on the Toronto Maple Leafs is close to Auston Matthews, so don't use him as a comp to anybody else

And there is someone available for trade that would directly replace Nylander: Andrei Kuzmenko...

Then you can use the remaining money to sign a defensemen, Bert, Domi and more


Kuzmenko and Nylander are not even close to the same nor would Kuz directly replace him

Kuzmenko is a guy who thrives more in a sheltered role and is a PP specialist

Kuzmenko is basically 2 tiers below Willy

This season

Willy on pace for 43 goals and 73 assists 116 points in 82 games

Kuzmenko on pace for 20 goals and 26 assists for 46 points in 76 games

As the season Kuzmenko had last year was due to an abnormal shooting % year and now hes come down to earth. Hes a guy who frustrates Tocchett and while he would be welcomed is not a Willy replacement in the slightest
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6 janv. à 16 h 49
#550
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I know all talk is about willy rn but what about Benoit eh?

I didn’t care for the signing when he was signed but man he’s actually been great recently on the blue line and I trust him more every game. I don’t see many blunders and he throws the body and fights. Plus he’s an RFA still I believe. I hope he stays here tbh
 
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