What's the high reward for the Oilers? Allen and Savard are just okay players at this point in their careers. They might be upgrades on what the Oilers have now but that pales to what they would miss if that pick ends up being top 5 or even top 10. In terms of dumping Campbell, if the cost is 3 1sts to dump him, it's simply not worth it, but even if that's the measure a top 3 pick would be more valuable than three bottom 10 picks, and the 5th overall is slightly less value than three 27OV picks.

The intrinsic value of getting a top-10 selection for the Oilers could be far greater than the Oilers getting away with dumping Campbell for a mere top-10 protected 1st place. That's only amplified if whoever they draft would be NHL-ready. Worst case they buyout Campbell and stick that ELC player into the lineup.

On the other hand, the risk for MTL is pretty low in comparison, Allen at full cap hit is probably worth like a 3rd, and Savard may be a 2nd at best. MTL's 2nd probably ends up being somewhere between 42-47 OV but even if they somehow fall to 32nd in the league, any 1st rounder the value comes slightly ahead of the 28th OV pick. So, on that front they end up basically breaking even with the likelihood that they end up ahead. So, the only downside is having to take back Campbell's contract at a heavily discounted rate/ for free.


So, it's really high risk - low reward for the Oilers and low/medium risk - high reward for the Canadiens. To answer the title, no they wouldn't have the confidence, only 25% of the teams that are out of a playoff spot at this point make it in, and the chances for a bottom 5 team in the standings to do it is super low.

The Oilers can’t afford Savard.

It’s like the NBA now, nobody is trading unconditional picks unless they are getting superstars it’s just the way of the world.

I understand your perspective, which seems to indicate that you don’t think Edmonton can make the playoffs this year (which is not unreasonable, given how far behind they are).

If Edmonton does make the playoffs the reward is huge to them: giving up the 17th overall pick (at worst) to get rid of Campbell’s contract (which also could allow positive players in future years by not having to pay Campbell).

I also think Edmonton also has to consider a couple of factors about Leon Draisaitl: (1) how much money do they need to extend him (does getting rid of all $5M of Campbell help a lot more than simply buying out Campbell and keeping a portion of his contract on the books) and (2) does it make Leon more willing to stay in Edmonton if the team shows that they are doing whatever it takes to win each year (rather than essentially giving up on the 2nd to last season of his current contract)? Edmonton has not had a ton of success yet (given how good they should be) and maybe Leon is leaning towards moving on if no moves are made to help the team.

Just a thought.

They could possibly make it but there's a high chance that they don't so my main point was that it's a high-risk-low-reward scenario in actuality. I don't think any GM would be foolish enough to do that, least of all Holland who doesn't even trade 1st for rentals, shows you how conservative he is with them. If the Oilers were getting a good goalie who would be worth a 1st+ due to his talent, in that case, it would be a high-risk reward for both sides.



The only thing that will keep Draisaitl around is results and/or having a good roster. A high-selection would help with that. If they are going to trade that pick with minimal protection (top-3 or top-5) they better be getting a difference-maker or a superstar if it's unprotected as Xqb15a said.

I agree that Edmonton would probably want more in a trade, but I do not think they are dealing from a position of strength.

This is just me being picky about wording, but: I don’t think any team is trading a “superstar” (McDavid, Jack Hughes, Kucherov, Bedard, Matthews, Pastrnak, MacKinnon, Patterson, Makar) for a top 3 pick (minus Bedard obviously) in the hopes of getting a superstar in a draft. Maybe a star player, like Point or Robertson, but not a superstar.

It wouldn't be 1 for 1, just more so talking about the type of trade where an unprotected pick even if it's not expected to be top-10 would be dealt.

What's the reward for Edmonton? Allen is 64th in GAA and 32nd in SV%.

32/76 while Skinner and Campbell are 69th and 70th (Allen is at least in the top half of the league).
GAA is impacted by shots faced and Allen has faced on average 10 more shots/game than Skinner (and 4 more than Campbell, who is last in the league for GAA if you ignore the SJ goalie that only played 30 minutes).
They need *better* goaltending. How much better depends on who's available and what they can afford. Allen doesn't need to be better than all the goaltenders to be an improvement for Edmonton, he just needs to be better than those 2 specifically.

For that they would

still cant believe florida traded an unprotected first for chiarot.

No GM in their right mind is ever trading a non protected 1st ever again unless they are very very confident they'll make the playoffs OR the player they're receiving in the deal is a legit star player so you got pay to get. Dumping a bad player while getting ok players back isn't justification for an unprotected 1st. Even if Campbell is a tire fire.

Even if EDM was offering a top5 protected 1st, MTL should be all over that. There are good players at 5-15 in this draft also and EDM is in tough to even just make the playoffs right now. Its a worthy gamble and frankly MTL can put conditions on the pick that in the event EDM does make the playoffs, the pick becomes next years unprotected/ this years 1sts + additional pick, etc. to hedge their bet a little which would be fair for them to do.

Yeah I could see Montreal doing top 5 protected

What if its Montembeault instead of Allen and put say top 5 protection on the Oilers 1st?

Edmonton could really use a defense first type dman like Savard.

I know but that’s one of the reasons they do more protection on picks.