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This team just doesnt survive the Atlantic sorry

Créé par: WN88
Équipe: 2023-24 Bruins de Boston
Date de création initiale: 19 sept. 2023
Publié: 19 sept. 2023
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
I just refuse to believe this Bruins team can finish in a wildcard spot. It would actually take a complete miracle:
- Yes, their defense is still solid, but not as good as last year.
- Their actual team defence is significantly worse due to the loss of key forwards
- Ullmark won't be as good as he was last year (unless he's truly the best goalie in the league)
- Bruins collectively out-scored their xGF at a rate higher than any team since it was tracked (I think)... this won't happen again
- The Atlantic is going to be insanely good this year: Toronto, Ottawa, Buffalo, Tampa. I can't in good conscience choose this Bruins to finish above the teams mentioned.
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19 sept. 2023 à 18 h 55
#1
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They still have the best defense in the division along with the best goalie tandem in the Atlantic, they will still make the playoffs.
19 sept. 2023 à 18 h 59
#2
Danny B is here
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One of Buffalo or OTT will still suck somehow it will just happen lol
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19 sept. 2023 à 19 h 1
#3
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Great d core. Great Goaltending. Good wingers. Bottom 5 centre group in the league. Maybe worse than that.

They will struggle to make the playoffs. I have them out of the playoff picture.
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19 sept. 2023 à 19 h 1
#4
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Quoting: BUF10
They still have the best defense in the division along with the best goalie tandem in the Atlantic, they will still make the playoffs.


Based on individual players, you could certainly make a case that Ottawa is pretty close to having as good of a defence. I don't think they have anyone as prolific at 5v5 as McAvoy, but their top-4 is ELITE. Having said that, I doubt Ottawa is an elite defensive team this season. Defence is a team effort, and Boston lost the greatest defensive forward in NHL history, along with another very reliable defensive forward in Krejci. So, sure they might still have the best blue line, but whether they are still the best defensive team is up for debate.
19 sept. 2023 à 19 h 1
#5
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Their defense is still elite and 4 of their defenders (McAvoy, Lindholm, Shattenkirk and Grzelcyk) will all contribute offensively which might compensate for their apparent lack of offense.

I do agree 2-3 forward need to step up, one of which at center. This could be a huge year for a young guy like Lauko, he needs to scofre 15 goals. JVR needs to score 20, one of Zacha or Coyle needs to have 60+ points and DeBrusk needs to prove last season wasn't a fluke.

I don't think they're done yet but they're definitely fragile and they need 2-3 forward to step up
19 sept. 2023 à 19 h 2
#6
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We say this every year and they still hang around.
19 sept. 2023 à 19 h 2
#7
They bought it
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i was doubtful last year so i’ve learned my lesson, but obviously they’re a weaker team. yeah their D is probably still the best but losing bergeron is an insane blow to their place in the standings, let alone krecji and the depth they had after the TDL
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19 sept. 2023 à 19 h 4
#8
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Quoting: GMDannyB
One of Buffalo or OTT will still suck somehow it will just happen lol


haha.

its just been too long. both teams showed a lot of promise down the stretch of last season. they've only gotten better since. i truly think this will be the breakthrough year.
19 sept. 2023 à 19 h 6
#9
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Quoting: Hockeyman_2627
We say this every year and they still hang around.


a lot of that was hindered by the fact that it was expected for Bergeron to decline (he never did). But he's gone now, so it definitely opens the possibility of this being a legitimate "fall-off" year for their organization.
19 sept. 2023 à 19 h 7
#10
Danny B is here
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Quoting: WN88
haha.

its just been too long. both teams showed a lot of promise down the stretch of last season. they've only gotten better since. i truly think this will be the breakthrough year.


The odds that both of them taking the step forward at the same time is probably unlikely
19 sept. 2023 à 19 h 34
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Quoting: WN88
Based on individual players, you could certainly make a case that Ottawa is pretty close to having as good of a defence. I don't think they have anyone as prolific at 5v5 as McAvoy, but their top-4 is ELITE. Having said that, I doubt Ottawa is an elite defensive team this season. Defence is a team effort, and Boston lost the greatest defensive forward in NHL history, along with another very reliable defensive forward in Krejci. So, sure they might still have the best blue line, but whether they are still the best defensive team is up for debate.

Ottawa will never live up to expectations as long as their current coach and GM are still in Ottawa. Chychrun is average and always injured Chabot bad defensively Sanderson is elite.
19 sept. 2023 à 19 h 39
#12
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There's no doubt they will have a worse record than last year, but so much worse that they won't make the playoffs?

Sorry I just don't buy that, especially knowing that their dcore and goaltending remain the same. I expect them to lose 15-20 games more than last year, which would still put them in a playoff spot last year.

Obviously those extra points get dispersed but you get the point.
19 sept. 2023 à 19 h 40
#13
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The lineup suggests you don’t watch them that much. All I’ll say is that most young teams primed for a big increase fail to do so mostly because they don’t play a solid structural defensive game. I believe they’ll be close to a 100 and that makes it to the playoffs., but they can’t lose a few players for an extended time.
19 sept. 2023 à 19 h 45
#14
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Quoting: WJC_Enthusiast
Their defense is still elite and 4 of their defenders (McAvoy, Lindholm, Shattenkirk and Grzelcyk) will all contribute offensively which might compensate for their apparent lack of offense.

I do agree 2-3 forward need to step up, one of which at center. This could be a huge year for a young guy like Lauko, he needs to scofre 15 goals. JVR needs to score 20, one of Zacha or Coyle needs to have 60+ points and DeBrusk needs to prove last season wasn't a fluke.

I don't think they're done yet but they're definitely fragile and they need 2-3 forward to step up


On paper, they're not cooked yet. The issue is that they find themselves in the Atlantic division, and their only hope is 3 - 4 breakout seasons. WC is what they should be aiming for
19 sept. 2023 à 19 h 49
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Boston will win the division. Bergeron was a big loss but even the best of the best players aren't worth more than 10-15 points in the standings. Krejci is a loss but he was a replaceable 2C. The only thing they are missing are the top 2 centers but the increased opportunities will increase the numbers of the guys they have. Zacha is a 45-50 point guy most seasons(over 82 games). Increase his ice time to 18 minutes a night as a 1C and you should be expecting around 65 points. Account for the better linemates and 1st unit PP time, he should be expected to score between 70-80+ points. That's not great for a 1C but it's not anything close to terrible either. He will be enough to get the job done.

To match that, the top of the Atlantic just isn't as strong as it has been in past seasons. All the teams up there are worse than they were the season before. Tampa has fallen off, finished with 98 points last season and done very little to replace the guys they've lost. Toronto has no defense and has largely unproven goaltending. Boston won't be a 135 point team again but they won't need to be. The winner of the Atlantic might not even make the 110 point mark. It may be one of the new teams if someone like Buffalo can go on a run but it probably won't be. It will probably be Boston.
19 sept. 2023 à 19 h 54
#16
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They won't do it because there's too much talent on this roster but one of the best things the Bruins could do is fall into the lottery this year. Expectations are lowered after you lose guys like Bergeron and Krejci and replace them with Coyle & Zacha, and then have to dump contracts like Taylor Hall & Nick Foligno and replace them with the Jesper Boqvist & AJ Greers of the world.

The center depth chart is just rough, man. Coyle hasn't broken 50 points in a season since 2016-17, and I'm not 100% sold on Pavel Zacha's breakout - I'm pretty sure I'd add 20 points to my career high if I went from skating with Nico Hischier & Tomas Tatar to a line with the two Davids Krejci & Pastrnak.

I don't think they fall all the way out of the playoff race, but I feel like they're closer to the mushy middle than the top of the league with this roster. Trust me - I'm an Islanders fan, I know a roster that's going to be carried to an 8 seed by their goalie and defense when I see one.
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19 sept. 2023 à 20 h 5
#17
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Quoting: Byrr
Boston will win the division. Bergeron was a big loss but even the best of the best players aren't worth more than 10-15 points in the standings. Krejci is a loss but he was a replaceable 2C. The only thing they are missing are the top 2 centers but the increased opportunities will increase the numbers of the guys they have. Zacha is a 45-50 point guy most seasons(over 82 games). Increase his ice time to 18 minutes a night as a 1C and you should be expecting around 65 points. Account for the better linemates and 1st unit PP time, he should be expected to score between 70-80+ points. That's not great for a 1C but it's not anything close to terrible either. He will be enough to get the job done.

To match that, the top of the Atlantic just isn't as strong as it has been in past seasons. All the teams up there are worse than they were the season before. Tampa has fallen off, finished with 98 points last season and done very little to replace the guys they've lost. Toronto has no defense and has largely unproven goaltending. Boston won't be a 135 point team again but they won't need to be. The winner of the Atlantic might not even make the 110 point mark. It may be one of the new teams if someone like Buffalo can go on a run but it probably won't be. It will probably be Boston.


I'm not really too sure what your point is. By that logic, you could increase any player's ice time and it will equal better results. Maybe a big reason why a player like Zacha was able to have success was because he didn't have to match up against tougher lines. And suppose he did have a 20-25 point increase in production, that doesn't even account for his defensive ability. Filling Bergeron's role on the top line would certainly mean going up against the other team's top line on a nightly basis (the Bruins don't have any other centre in their depth chart that would be suitable for a 'shutdown' role). You're just completely undermining the loss of Krejci and Bergeron, which is puzzling considering they terrorized our favorite team for over a decade.

The Atlantic might only seem weaker if you don't believe in the younger teams taking a big step, which is reasonable, I guess. And I don't know where you're getting this idea that the Leafs have "no defense and has largely unproven goaltending". Both their defense and goaltending are practically the exact same as last year. Perhaps the Klingberg/Holl swap is what you're referring to?
19 sept. 2023 à 20 h 10
#18
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Quoting: WN88
I'm not really too sure what your point is. By that logic, you could increase any player's ice time and it will equal better results.


And that would be a true statement. You increase any players ice time and they will much more often than not score more points just from being on the ice and touching the puck more often. But more than that, quality of teammates has consistently been shown to have a much bigger effect than quality of opposition. Again, mostly due to time on ice. While Zacha might be playing against better players part of the time, he will be playing with Marchand and DeBrusk all of the time.
19 sept. 2023 à 20 h 12
#19
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Quoting: Byrr
And that would be a true statement. You increase any players ice time and they will much more often than not score more points just from being on the ice more often.


That's not always true though. How a player is deployed is completely relevant. What if those extra 5 minutes are all defensive zone starts?
19 sept. 2023 à 20 h 13
#20
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Quoting: Byrr
And that would be a true statement. You increase any players ice time and they will much more often than not score more points just from being on the ice more often. But more than that, quality of teammates has consistently been shown to have a much bigger effect than quality of opposition. Again, mostly due to time on ice. While Zacha might be playing against better players part of the time, he will be playing with Marchand and DeBrusk all of the time.


He spent 16+ minutes per night with Krejci & Pasta last season. Do you really think that an extra few shifts with Marchand & JDB (while also having to be the line's center instead of the winger) is going to add 20 points to his scoresheet?
19 sept. 2023 à 20 h 14
#21
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Quoting: WN88
That's not always true though. How a player is deployed is completely relevant. What if those extra 5 minutes are all defensive zone starts?


You're right, its not always true but in this case there's no reason to believe it won't be. Zacha will be given more offensive opportunities on the top line, he will be given top PP unit minutes, etc, etc, etc.
19 sept. 2023 à 20 h 16
#22
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Quoting: dannibalcorpse
He spent 16+ minutes per night with Krejci & Pasta last season. Do you really think that an extra few shifts with Marchand & JDB (while also having to be the line's center instead of the winger) is going to add 20 points to his scoresheet?


He also played very little on a much, much weaker 2nd PP unit (Bruins have traditionally played a stacked 1st unit). That's where most of the increase in production will come from.
19 sept. 2023 à 20 h 37
#23
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Quoting: Byrr
He also played very little on a much, much weaker 2nd PP unit (Bruins have traditionally played a stacked 1st unit). That's where most of the increase in production will come from.


Bergeron was the PP1 center last year and he had 19 points(9 G/10 A) in 3:23 of PP TOI every night; Zacha was 3-5-8 in 1:17 of his man advantage time. That translates to 4.3 pts/60 for Bergeron and 3.4/60 for Zacha - so what you're basically saying is that you expect Zacha to be nearly 30% more productive, against a team's top penalty killers (instead of facing the PK2 guys he typically would have last season), while also transitioning from being on the PP2 wing to being the PP1 center (Krejci was his most common linemate 5v4 last season.)

Again, I'm not saying I expect Zacha to fall apart, I just think you're really overestimating how much production he has to replace with Bergeron. I'd say it's more likely you see a little bit of a downgrade in the PP this year going from a clear cut Hall of Famer center to a merely good player in Zacha.
19 sept. 2023 à 20 h 40
#24
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Defense is basically the same, Orlov played 20 games and they were strong before he was acquired. Shattenkirk/Clifton cancels out. They could miss the playoffs just like they could make it.

I would argue the Atlantic is actually really open and anything is possible. Every team have some flaws. Toronto (worse defensively and questionable G) and TBL (depth) will probably finish 1-2, but it's not guaranteed. Ottawa and Buffalo have concerns defensively and questionable at G.

Anything could really happen.
19 sept. 2023 à 22 h 9
#25
MisstheWhalers
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Idk if the Bruins will make the playoffs, probably not but I wouldn't write them off just yet, staying healthy will be so very important for them to stand a chance.

I'm interested to see how Geekie does, had a pretty good season in Seattle, wonder if he'll get more opportunity in Boston and if he can build on that.
 
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