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Byrr

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4 juill. 2019
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Maple Leafs de Toronto
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Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 20 heures
Sujet: How much for Lundestrom
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jah1722</b></div><div>I’m not homering. I’m asking you how one 23 year old is on one extreme vs the other and all you’ve given me is he’s played ~10 games in the top 4 so he’s an elite 23 year old and the other is a defensive 3C so he’s a bad 23 year old.</div></div>

You are homering. I've given you stats which you just ignored to try and stand here for your guy but if you want to delve deeper, lets do that.

Liljegren is a 23 year old who has been called on to play top 4 minutes in both of the last 2 seasons, the current 10 game stretch only being the most recent. He has performed at 4.21% above average xG across the past 3 seasons(all numbers even strength) on a team that has been well above average as a whole during that time. He's also a RHD, the most valuable position on hockey.

Meanwhile Lundestrom has scored at 0.28 points per game as a forward on the ducks. The points he has scored was largely on a run where he was shooting 20%, 8% above his average and completely unsustainable when we look at league wide stats. When we look at overall play, he is sitting at 4.92 xG below average for the Ducks ... a team well below average as a whole. When we choose to look on the defensive side of things only, which he has been sold as by Ducks fans in here, he is 0.01 xGA better than average on the Ducks ... or basically exactly average for a well below average team. Maybe he will improve on his defensive game with time, this is at least reasonable to expect unlike his offense turning from night to day.

So when we look at it, Liljegren has been an effective young defenseman who has been performing above average on an above average team. Ludestrom has not been an effective forward, playing below average on a below average team. How's that for facts? Queue the goal posts.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 24 heures
Sujet: How much for Lundestrom
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>Lundestrom is 23 years old and my understanding is that he's under team control until 2027. He seems to have proven that he's a third-line player with a 200-foot game. Kerfoot won't be on the Ducks roster next season and it's not likely that the third-round draft pick will EVER be on the Ducks roster. Lundestrom for someone like Liljegren or Sandin (depending upon your evaluation of Lundestrom) would be conceivable.</div></div>

You've gone from one extreme to another with those valuations. You are talking about 2 young defensemen who have shown they might be top 4 going forward for a center who's ceiling would have to be considered 3C with his lack of offense. A defensive 3C, even a young one, won't get the likes of promising young defensemen.
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 19 h 4
Sujet: Deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JoeThornton</b></div><div>The three-team trades that come to mind are:

1) David Savard: cost the Lightning a 1st and 3rd (went to CBJ) and a 4th to DET for being the 3rd team retaining salary
2) Nick Foligno: cost Toronto a 1st and 4th (went to CBJ) and a 4th to SJ for being the 3rd team retaining salary

So an additional 4th round pick for retaining is the additional cost for around $1M in retention.

Toews would require around $2.5M in retention, so I'd say an additional 2nd at that point.

Monahan could fetch a 1st under the correct circumstances. He's playing over 17 minutes once again, on a 55 point pace (the majority of his points coming at even strength so no PP leverage here). He's having a fine resurgent season, the kind that would make him extra valuable as a 3C on a contending team. If not a low 1st round pick, then the same value as that (two 2nds).</div></div>

When you have to start talking about the correct circumstances, you know the player isn't likely to get a 1st.
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 17 h 43
Sujet: Deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JoeThornton</b></div><div>There's something to consider here about cap hit as well. And how far the drop-off in available center talent is after Monahan.
Horvat at 50% retention would undoubtedly be the best, but he will go with an extension in place, very unlikely he's a rental at all.
Toews at 50% would still require a $5.25M cap hit. I could be convinced Monahan would cost two 2nds rather than a low 1st with 50% retention, but pricing in Justin Holl's contract and I think this makes quite a bit of sense since Holl's dumb requires at least a 4th rounder.

Beyond these 3, the C market is quite thin. ROR likely not available since the Blues have been resurgent. Larkin is likely to re-sign with Detroit.

That leaves: Lars Eller, Pius Suter, Max Domi.</div></div>

There are lots of teams available as a 3rd to eat cap. Getting Toews down to 2.75 mil would only be a mid round pick. Dumping money as part of a trade also doesn't cost anything at the deadline. The players aren't owed much actual cash and with expiring contract, its not worth anything to the teams taking it on. If the Habs are offered the 55th overall pick and Justin Holl's contract or the 56th overall pick, they'd still take the 55th because its the better return.

The fact remains you won't find many examples of 1 position getting 3 1st round picks at a deadline and Monahan isn't the kind of name that moves the needle on this. History tells us this won't happen despite how much Habs fans want it. The main problem isn't how many teams are looking for a center, it's how many teams are willing to move a 1st round pick for one. There are not often 3 in that category and especially not for someone who doesn't have a game changing impact. To put it into context, the most 1st round picks moved leading up to a deadline in the last decade has been 6. You want 3 moved for centers here(Horvat, Toews, Monahan), there are 5-7 teams who will tell you their defensemen are getting 1(Klingberg, Dumba, Orlov, Gostisbehere, Gavrikov, Jensen, Zub, since were in a Habs AGM I'll add Edmundson here too, etc), a few more who will tell you their wingers(Kane, etc). There aren't enough 1sts to go around and Monahan is likely to be one who doesn't match up to the demand. Keep in mind this is expected to be the best and deepest draft since 2015 too and those 1st round picks will be worth a premium. Everyone on CapFriendly wants 1sts for their guys around this time of year and there simply aren't enough teams willing to move them. Monahan isn't going to be the player who jumps to the top of the list of players who return one.
Forum: Armchair-GMdim. à 14 h 45
Sujet: An interesting Toronto trade
Could something like this happen? Sure but it's not likely to. In reality the Leafs front office aren't like the CapFriendly Leafs community. They've never explored moving Kerfoot. They like that he can flex up an down the line up, to center, can PK, etc. If they were to move Kerfoot, they would need to get an upgrade at 3C back. Right now, if one of the top 2Cs get injured you can bet Kerfoot would be expected to step in. Moving Kerfoot sideways for a cap savings is too big of a risk in that regard. Cap wise the Leafs are pretty comfortable after the Muzzin injury. If they were to move out money to make some more room, it would likely be Engvall. A healthy Leafs roster(except Muzzin on LTIR) with Engvall moved can create up to $5,876,254 in space or more than enough to get everything done at the deadline.