Why would the Leafs trade Niemela when he's so close to the NHL?

As a Hawks fan, HARD pass. Clearly not interested in Matt Murray. That 1st we can get without any retention for Murphy and for a lesser piece. It'll be a very late 1st. Topi is a fine prospect, but no reason to move away a guy that will VERY much help the development of Vlasic/Phillips/Kaiser/Korchinski/Del Mastro/Allan etc... We need to keep him.

Oh and now we can discuss the 3 years of TOR buying cap space. Not doing that for free.

Murray's on LTIR so no need to move

And that package for Murphy no thanks

Yeah....nope. I don't mind moving Murphy. I don't mind retaining on Murphy. I don't even mind taking a Murray cap dump. I do mind doing all of that for THIS return. Murphy retained that much for 3 years easily is more than what you got for McCabe (retained for only 2 years) which was a 1st and 2nd. The proposed return here is barely that (and only if you are fairly exuberant on Niemela). This package is easily short one significant piece.

My Counteroffer is Murphy (2.2) retained for Murray, Niemela, Liljegren, '24 1st, '25 3rd

Wasn't this the mentality for McCabe? And what did it end up with? Leafs obviously pass on that counter... I wouldn't do Lilly straight up for Murphy... let alone an additional 1st, 3rd and the Leafs' best defensive prospect

No, The Hawks traded away McCabe because the log jam they have at LD. We have (7) LD prospects that we need to give NHL/AHL ice time too. Vlasic/Phillips need NHL time, Kaiser/Del Mastro/Roos need AHL time, Korchinski/Allan need another WHL season. So these prospects need veterans to develop into true NHLers AND they're not all going to make it obviously...so if Vlasic/Phillips don't pan out...we still have a veteran RD on the team to help the next set of guys. It's the same reason the Hawks spent $8M on Foligno/Perry...not because they're worth $8M, but we need veterans to help develop the prospects.

So trading away Murphy really hurts the Hawks team. We'd do it, but this return is awful.

Firstly thank you for recognizing Topi is a decent to good prospect I appreciate it, secondly are those all LD cause if so you are about to have the reverse LA Kings situation (just saying)

Topi is a good.

We 100% are in the reverse LA Kings situation. I think Nolan Allan has swapped back and forth a bit, but he's a natural LD. It's such an odd thing too because us Hawks fans have been asking management to play Ian Mitchell and Alec Regula over freaking Zaitsev last year...and...not only did those guys NOT play, but they also got traded. So the absolute truth is we have (1) RD prospect in our entire system that's worth something. Rinzel. He's the only guy.

With that said...LOTS of draft capital and next year's draft is deep defensively. LONG road for a rebuild, but some odd moves for sure.

https://www.tsn.ca/hockey-canada/world-juniors-adam-fantilli-connor-bedard-1.1875088

If I were you Sam Dickinson would be my choice for you guys to snag up, I watched him as a Marlboro & knew he was gonna be a stud D-man, just a little fun fact: I worked at that rink & had a scout from the London Knights walk in one day & asked him who he was looking at during intermission, he said there’s a few guys that piqued his interest, I told him i’d pay attention to number 4 on the Marlboros, they then picked him in the OHL draft that year.

Murphy is worse than McCabe and McCabe is best suited as a 3rd pair defenceman. Being the best defenceman on a horrible defensive team doesn't mean a player is going to be awesome on a team with better players. Murphy is supposed to be a hard hitting big defensive defenceman but doesn't hit all that much and isn't very good defensively. He hits around the same amount as Justin Holl did.

It's funny you should say that. I haven't done a deep dive into the D prospects for this upcoming draft to be honest, but while I was doing some research last year I was watching game film on Oliver Bonk and couldn't help but focus more so on Sam Dickinson. NO slight to Bonk. I don't wish any negativity on anyone, but Sam Dickinson is someone I'm keeping an eye on for sure.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Hawks took (2) RD with both their 1sts just because it's probably the 1 area they don't have any depth at. Didn't even draft a defenseman last year until the 7th round.

I think the Hawks also traded away McCabe because of the offer being as good as it was. Otherwise, I believe they would've liked him in a similar role to Murphy, mentoring our young up and coming defensemen, and wouldn't have re-signed Tinordi. Then again he seemed unhappy with the trajectory of CHI and probably wanted out anyway, even knowing he lives in the Chicago area.

But yeah, we need defensive minded veteran mentors to help facilitate the next wave of CHI defensemen, for sure. Murphy being a top 4 defensive minded RHD already makes him valuable, add onto that the retention, the leadership qualities, and the value he brings to development, and it is quite obvious that moving him should require a significant overpay.

McCabe got you a solid #4/5 for 2 million per for 3 playoff runs which is no small thing for a top heavy payroll team like the Leafs looking for cheap quality depth. Niemela may be the Leaf's best D prospect, but he is not THAT good of a prospect. He had a strong season 2 seasons ago where pencilling him in as a 2nd pairing D looked entirely reasonable. His last season was a a fair bit of regression and while I think his ceiling may very well still be a middle pairing guy, his floor is not even an NHL player as sub 6 foot D is no sure thing for the NHL.

Take Murray out of the equation and just live with him on LTIR and the Murphy retained for Niemela and a 1st and the value is close to probably what it will take to get Murphy (still think there will need to be a small add in the range of a 2nd....do the Leaf's own their '27 2nd or have they traded all future 2nds?). Not becasue he is some world beater or the value of his contract with that much retention is so undeniably spectacular (he is a good player and a contract at that level becomes a pretty good value propostion), but as others have alluded....having Murphy and Seth Jones at RHD creates a great situation for the Hawks to sift through the 7 or 8 LHD that will be getting looks and trying to break into the NHL during Murphy's remaining 3 years of contract.

Yeah. Depends where our two 1st round picks land, but I wouldn't be surprised either. Levshunov, Jiricek, Mews, Parekh, Elick, Yakemchuk, Chromiak, and Cristoforo are all VERY promising RHD ranked in the first round in 2024.

Tinordi is a bit of odd case. I feel like the way that all went down was more so a thank you, a sorry, and a hey...come back and give us your all again. A slap shot to the mouth is rough. He played through just about anything you reasonably asked him to do. Signing the extension on the same exact day your disclose you're out for the season...idk. Maybe I'm reading into it too much. Just seemed like the Hawks knew they had the money...needed an enforcer...felt like they owed it to him.

Yeah. I agree. But, if the McCabe trade hadn't worked out and he were still with CHI, I doubt they would've signed Tinordi. He can hold his own in just about any role they put him in last season, and at that price, I think it was a pretty easy decision for them.

but weren't Hawks fan all thinking they could get McCabe @50% retained for 2 1sts and a prospect? wasn't that counter offer similar?

Yeah... not talking about the original trade offer but the counter offer of adding Lilly and a 3rd, which the Leafs just simply won't do

I don't think so. I had to go back and do a quick search to see if I posted a McCabe trade with 50% retention...and I did! Link below. I was asking for a 1st and a 3rd for McCabe 50% retained. I'm bias about this next comment though...I tend to think I'm more reasonable than the average fan...again..obviosly biased.

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/3917034

Didn't mean you specifically, but I meant, there was a few Hawks fans who had McCabe as 2 1sts with retention

I'm sure there were. We have our own "RipNasty"s and "JackLondon"s Just insanity. Every fan base has those. TOR just has more fans in general.

TBH, Leafs ACGMs are getting very repetitive nowadays that I've started looking at other team's that contain the Leafs. Wish Treliving can do something to switch it up and get a whole new group of ideas coming

A.) this is a great convo

B.) I've tried a few out of the box ideas. Doesn't mean they'll happen, but understanding who you are as an organization is a huge advantage even if you're AZ and you internally acknowledge that you don't spend money. Certainly with additional pieces being present in the trade...why wouldn't a Schmaltz for Nylander trade work? 3 years of cap certainty for a criminally underrated Schmaltz...(.95ppg player over the last 2 years with only Keller to help) AZ wants to do it because Schmaltz's contract was back end loaded. Nylander already had his signing bonus paid this year. AZ saves $5M just this year. TOR has the cash. AZ doesn't. BUT AZ can still tell their fanbase they got Nylander!

A) agreed

B) I'm not the biggest fan of Schmaltz so maybe there's bias... But I think AZ wouldn't do it bc it requires extra to go from Schmaltz to Nylander

I think Dickinson is really intriguing as well but I believe he is a lefty, having said that if he is the best player available when the Hawks are picking… f**k it! Take him anyways and figure it out later.