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Garak

Membre depuis
21 juin 2019
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Blackhawks de Chicago
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Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 1 heure
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 5 heures
Sujet: Deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JSEB93</b></div><div>Yeah and the Pens are giving, at worst, an equal player back. Also, the difference in value between a 1st and a 2nd is insane - I think we can all agree on that. So if someone is a fringe 2nd round value like you're saying Domi is, retention would cost maybe a mid round pick like a 3rd or 4th. It's not bumping up a 2nd to a 1st.

That's the thing though is the Pens don't have to dump cap. And because of that, it's not going to cost a 1st to dump Kapanen and his contract. On that link you gave it shows to trades where a team retained a similar amount to this Domi trade - one got a 4th and one got a 6th.

That's not how math works for picks though. A 2nd and 4th-6th does not equal a 1st.

I don't care if they keep him. And you started this conversation so I'm talking to you lol - don't tell me to go start random conversations with other people haha. Makes no sense. If I see someone do an ACGM with an awful Kap trade then I will comment - that's literally what I did here.

It's very unreasonable to get rid of the better player and a 1st round pick for a worse player. I agree they should - and if dumping Kapanen's contract helps them do that then they will. But this isn't it - they aren't pulling the trigger on giving up a first to do it and get someone who isn't even an upgrade.</div></div>

I responded to you because you literally said "A first for Domi should get you run out of planet Earth", when no one was ever saying Domi was worth a 1st round pick, not even the person who made this ACGM. My position is not that the trade is justified, but that there are multiple factors outside of Domi that contribute to the cost. So, my initial response to you was more of a "To be fair..." retort, suggesting that you consider all the variables and don't just make blanket statements. Somehow you keep manipulating me into defending the trade, which was not my intent or my position.

Also, the proposed value doesn't come from "who the better player is". Kapanen may or may not be "the better player", and if he is, it is by a negligible margin. The value is in dumping the contract, and any extra value comes from getting a comparable nhl player back that fills a role that PIT hypothetically needs (which I'm not sure if they actually need a third line center or not, but this ACGM seems to think so) and wins 60% of his faceoffs at less than half the cap hit and is on an expiring contract so that PIT doesn't have to pay Kapanen next year. Plus, it gives PIT a little cap space for this year as well to make other adds without shorting themselves a roster player.

Domi involved or not, it is going to cost PIT something to dump Kapanen. Domi however is not a cap dump, because, in any scenario, CHI doesn't NEED to trade Domi and isn't the one searching for cap space. Whether or not it will cost a 2nd or a 1st to dump Kapanen will be determined by the trade market. There are plenty of real life examples that reinforce the cost of dumping $4-5M in salary being somewhere in the realm of a 1st round pick. So, if Kapanen is a pure cap dump, and you add Kapanen's pro-rated salary for the rest of this year to his salary for next year, it is just under $5M.

Personally, I think this seems like a bit much, and I actually kinda like Kapanen and think he has more to show if he is given the right situation. I think he is mismanaged in PIT or just doesn't have chemistry with anyone or doesn't play the right style for that team, but he is also getting older and it will only get harder for him to find a role somewhere with an NHL team. That all being said, this proposal is not "madness". Giving up the equivalent of a 1st round pick in order to dump $4-5M in salary may be unlikely in this specific situation, but it is not uncommon.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 13 heures
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 13 heures
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 24 heures
Sujet: Deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JSEB93</b></div><div>I mean you can try - i guess anything is technically arguable lol. Okay only this season matters? Kap is doing better this season - end of story. No - neither of them are great players. Neither of us are saying they are. I haven't kept insinuating that though - at all.

Again - this isn't a discussion about whether I want to move Kap or not. So I'm not sure why you keep telling me to go argue with Pens fans about this. And again - I'm not even arguing that the Pens wouldn't have to pay to move Kap in this deal - s o not sure why you're repeating that either. My point was clearly that saying that thinking it's a first round pick to do so is just madness</div></div>

It is pretty widely accepted that Domi should return the equivalent of a 2nd round pick at the deadline. That price is reinforced, if not increased, when you add retention. That is all without even considering Kapanen because he would be a whole separate part of the transaction.

For now, let us just remove Domi from the whole scenario. Generally, if a team needs to dump cap, that is something they have to pay for. This proposal, like many other PIT ACGM's, supposes that Kapanen is a cap dump. Dumping a $3.2M cap hit for one and a half years with an actual cash salary owed of just under $5M should easily cost a 1st round pick. Elliote Friedman recently did a pretty comprehensive write up documenting what it generally costs to move salary using real life examples. It refers specifically to third party retention transactions, but it gives a good idea of what it costs to move salary off the books and corroborates this theory. https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/2023-trade-deadline-countdown-which-teams-will-be-third-party-money-brokers

Now we add those together:
(the speculated but widely accepted cost of acquiring Domi) + (the widely accepted cost of moving salary off the books) = at least a 1st round pick, or something equivalent.

So, the reason I am telling you to argue with other PIT fans about it is if you think PIT should keep him OR that they can get some sort of actual value for him in trade OR could at least dump his contract at a lower cost, then cool go do it. But to CHI, Kap is a pure cap dump and they don't (or shouldn't) have any interest in him at any cost and would/should only take on his contract if they are being compensated to do so. Maybe that would take a little madness or desperation on PIT's part for them to resort to it. It is not unreasonable, though. PIT brass should be desperate to ice the best possible team and compete as long as they can with their core of Crosby Malkin and Letang still in tact. So, if getting rid of Kapanen's contract helps them do that, I'd be willing to bet they pull the trigger.
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 13 h 25
Sujet: Deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JSEB93</b></div><div>Of course its hypothetical - that's what all this is haha. Just a bunch of dudes being bros. Yeah and I'm saying that cost is insanity. I don't need to argue that with them though - because this isn't about whether I think we should keep Kap or not. This is about giving up a first round pick to clear Kap's contract. That's fine if you think the Pens would have to pay for CHI to take Kap - that's not what I'm arguing. I'm saying to think it takes a first round pick is crazy talk.

Kap has been better recently - this is almost inarguable. If you think Kap has been mediocre then Domi has been less than mediocre. Nothing you said actually proves that he's been better recently. I'd be happy to go through the numbers over the last 3 years</div></div>

It really isn't inarguable. It's pretty easy to create arguments to support any narrative we want. But the last 3 years don't matter, what does matter is how they are playing right now this season. And lets be honest, neither of them are "great" by NHL standards, they are just fine, and they are completely different types of players that bring completely different styles and skillsets to the table. So, that argument isn't even worth having, and all of that is completely beside the point. The point I am trying to make is that you keep insinuating that the proposal is a 1st for Domi straight up, but it isn't. And I would never argue that Domi is worth a 1st straight up, unless the unlikely happens and he goes on a tear and plays like an elite Center between now and the TDL. There are other factors contributing to the proposed cost. Whether the cost makes sense for PIT or is "fair" is up to PIT.

Go argue with your fellow PIT fans about what you think Kapanen is or isn't. I really don't care. That isn't my argument to have. They are the ones who almost unanimously want to move Kapanen's contract off PIT's books. IF PIT's front office agrees with those fans but can't find a team that wants him, then they will have to pay to get someone to take him. CHI doesn't want him, unless they are being paid to take him. End of story.
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 10 h 40
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 10 h 36
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 10 h 17
Sujet: Deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JSEB93</b></div><div>It sort of is though for a 1st round pick - especially for a team that doesn't actually have to move anyone to be cap compliant. I'm not overlooking it - I'm just saying 3mil off the books next year doesn't warrant a 1st round pick. If there's evidence of that being the case I'll gladly admit I'm wrong.

Kap has been better than Domi recently. I didn't mean like the last 5 games, that's not a good sample size in my opinion. I meant this year, the past 3 years, etc. They can easily get that 1.7mil by sending OConner down and retaining less on Dumo</div></div>

This is all hypothetical though. I'm not trying to convince you that they DO need to do it. I'm saying, IF (keyword: IF) they do need/want to dump his contract for whatever purpose they deem necessary and they want Domi in return WITH RETENTION, that is the cost. Obviously the person that created this ACGM and many other PIT fans here on CapFriendly feel it is necessary to get rid of Kap's contract, so argue that with them. I can tell you CHI definitely doesn't want him or his contract, unless you are paying them to take him. Whether PIT's front office feels the same way is TBD.

And no, Kap hasn't been better than Domi recently. Kap has been mediocre at best, and seems to be a big old disappointment in PIT according to a lot of fans online. Domi plays center, wins faceoffs, is grittier, can eat more minutes, and would be less than half the price with no commitment beyond this season.
Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 8 h 39