No it won't. This isn't the same. Cat doesn't have a contract and wants out of Ottawa. Cat is also coming off a down year. He's not worth what he was in Chicago.

Trading for Cat last year energized the fan base, increased ticket sales, sent a message to the players that it was about winning now, and Giroux stated it was one of the reasons he agreed to sign with Ottawa.

So don't forget to factor those in when you calculate who wins/loses

Detroit doesn't really care what he was traded for last season.

I'm sorry the Canes lost out on DeBrincat.

Ottawa does though.

You aren't likely to get what the Sens paid last year for a couple of reasons.

1. He is 1 year closer to UFA, Arb eligible, and has a huge QO.
2. He did not perform as well as expected outside of Chicago.
3. Less suitors for him given his current contract status, expectations and teams that can afford him longer term.

I'd seriously temper those expectations if you expect to flip him for the same thing you sent out for him last season.

I don't care. He's awful defensively and would be banished to the pressbox under Rod. He's lost value, cope with it

Yes but the claim is on who wins this trade. Not the trade last year. Detroit wasn't involved in the trade last year. Might as well ask if Chicago won or lost on this trade as well.

Lmao Kubalik Sebrango a 1st and a 4th

Which 1st ?

conditional 24 1st

lmao dude

Red Wings choose:

whatever one Detroit wants to send.

This package ain’t worth the 7th OA in 2022

Ottawa trades away:
2022 1st round pick (OTT - #7 - Kevin Korchinski)
2022 2nd round pick (OTT - #39 - Paul Ludwinski)
2024 3rd round pick (OTT)
One year of Alex Debrincat

for:
Dominik Kubalik,
Donovan Sebrango,
Red Wings choice of 2024 1st round picks
2024 4th round pick

Could have been worse... but I don't like Sebrango as an add at all. Ottawa kid, but I don't see how he has any future in Ottawa.

Both DET and OTT can win in the situation.. OTT clearly wins the Debrincat flip from what they paid to what he brought to what the receive from DET. It doesn’t mean DET loses the trade, they got Cat so they also win. It’s like buying a stock low, selling it for a nice profit to someone else who then profits from it again. Both parties should be happy here…

Sad to say, but the situation has completely changed. You can't measure the two trades against each other. You might be able to call the difference in value between the two trades "the cost of having him for one year", though. OTT's new ownership should seriously consider big changes to the front office and coaching staff, IMO.

I had high hopes for Sebrango, but he has not transitioned to pro very well. He has plenty of time though, since OTT seems pretty set at LD for the foreseeable future. Kubalik will be nice if you have someone who can get him the puck, he has a huge shot. But, if OTT already had a hard time getting Cat the puck, I have a hard time seeing Kubalik having more success in that department. He's still a nice piece, though, and has a much more manageable cap hit.

You can't call this a profit, though. OTT definitely paid more for Cat last year than they got for him today.

Paid to CHI was a 1st, 2nd, 3rd

Received from DET was a 1st, 3rd, 4th and kubalik who will likely be flipped at TDL for what pick at 1/2 retained? 2nd+ I’d bet. (The picks will take some serious time to really know which was better but on face value it’s not a loss by any stretch today)

Now Cat going to OTT was a big reason Giroux signed, it also helped them push for Chych. Dominoes of good as a result. Can’t put a price tag on it but that’s some valuable cause and effect.

CHI received a 7th overall pick. OTT will get whichever 1st round pick DET decides to send them, which means OTT gets the later of DET and BOS's 1st round picks. Which will almost certainly be far less valuable than the 7th overall pick that CHI received. Kubalik is maybe worth somewhere in the realm of a mid 2nd to an early 3rd, value-wise. Sebrango has not done well at all since transitioning to pro hockey. There is no 3rd involved. And the 4th is of very little trade value. Although, there is nothing saying that 4th couldn't turn out to be a great prospect, the chances are slim.

So, CHI got a top 10 1st, a high 2nd, and a 3rd. I know I wouldn't give that up for the package DET is sending to OTT.

All of that is all well and good but CHI decided to move him to the highest bid, while Cat demanded out of OTT and hand picked his landing spot. Kubalik could very well become a 1st putting them at 2 1sts, 3rd, 4th while they were in a bad spot. They did very well no matter how much you need to feel like CHI won the trade. The pick they end up with from DET is going to be a top 15. Tbh CHI won too because they needed to rebuild and would have wasted 6 years of Cats career if he stayed. So don’t get defensive over nhl trades bud

I don't "need to feel like CHI won". I know CHI won the trade, but it doesn't make me feel any better about it because I am actually rooting for OTT to become a serious contender. OTT did make out pretty well considering all the variables. I'm just saying that, no matter how you want to slice it, what they received is not worth what they spent, without the benefit of hindsight. Kubalik will not become a 1st round pick if they flip him. He just won't, but for the sake of argument, let's say he does. That would be a late 1st at best. So then, giving DET their choice of which 1st round pick to send between theirs and BOS's means DET is sending the later pick of the two. One of DET or BOS will almost certainly be a playoff team. Extensive studies have been done using historical data to determine the value of draft picks, and two late 1st round picks are just not worth a top 10 pick. Hindsight certainly may prove otherwise, but that is years down the road.

https://soundofhockey.com/2022/06/06/examining-the-value-of-nhl-draft-picks/

This article about draft pick value also cites other studies that have been done on the subject. So if you need more than one reference, there are other links within the article. The numbers look different, but the math generally generates a similar conclusion.

Just to add my two cents here: Ottawa lost this trade plain and simple because of the condition on the 1st round pick. You can't rule out Boston who were defensively lights out last year (and didn't lose a single defenseman) to not make the playoffs, and with the additions Detroit made, they should also be pushing to make the playoffs. Either way, that pick (at best) is in the low 20s. They gave up 7th overall for him, the difference in success for a 7th overall vs 20ish pick is staggering. Yes, while both are likely to lead to a player playing in the NHL-- the effectiveness of said player is much different (in general). Sure, Ottawa can hit a home run on a draft pick in the 20s that ends up making this in their favor, but the odds are not for that. It'll essentially be like hitting the lottery if they can get someone that will be as good as who Chicago drafted 7th overall.