Caniac2000

Miss the Thrashers
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Hurricanes de la Caroline
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Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 23 heures
Sujet: I got really bored
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Bear played the toughest minutes of any Oilers defenseman all season long and won those minutes. He played 1st pairing as a rookie, even if there's a sophomore slump he'll still be capable of playing top-4. There are zero questions about Bear in Oilers management.

I would say that it's also unlikely that Larsson moves on when he becomes a UFA. I think there's a pretty decent chance that he gets re-signed, especially since he's unlikely to command a big raise.</div></div>

Larsson will demand a big raise because Edmonton cannot afford to let him walk. If they let Larsson go, it'll look bad for the Hall trade. Knowing that, he's likelt to ask for something like 6 mil. He's not worth it, but it's his ask most likely.

As for Bear, he was being babysat. Haydn Fleury played top line minutes in Carolina..... with Jaccob Slavin. It's not always because they deserve it, and the stats agree with that for Bear. Could he become a top pairing D man, absolutely. Is he that now? No.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 23 heures
Sujet: I got really bored
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Jones' cap hit is $850k for the next 2 years and he proved to be capable of holding down his job this year. You know he was playing 2LD when Klefbom was injured, right? He and Larsson outscored opponents 8-5 despite 38% offensive zone faceoffs.

It isn't worth the massive cap hit to upgrade 3LD to Skjei. Even if CAR was willing to give Edmonton Skjei for free.</div></div>

You understand scoring for a D man is a useless stat right? They are paid to defend, which Jones cannot do to a good enough standard, yet Skjei can. If Klef gets injured again (and lets face it, his injury record is bad) and you put him back into the top 4, he's quickly gonna get exposed. He's cost controlled, fine. Skjei is locked up for longer term, and won't want that kind of raise. It's a better move all around for EDM.
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 23 heures
Sujet: NYR trade 20-21 team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sagecoll</b></div><div>gotta admit i'm really unsure what you mean by "bottom 50" in dxGA or "towards the bottom offensive counterpart dxGF"

Are you taking raw expected goal totals without accounting for ice time? (Obviously being an analytics expert you know all that will just tell you who's been on the ice the most) I'd like to understand what numbers you're looking at that's informing your opinion.

Here are my numbers:

<a href="https://ibb.co/NZ7VBsP" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank"><img src="https://i.ibb.co/XSV2Rbg/Screen-Shot-2020-04-05-at-10-59-54-AM.png" alt="Screen-Shot-2020-04-05-at-10-59-54-AM"></a>

You can find them here: <a href="https://evolving-hockey.com/?_inputs_&amp;std_sk_range=%22Seasons%22&amp;std_sk_pos=%22F%22&amp;std_sk_str=%225v5%22&amp;std_sk_season=%2220192020%22&amp;std_sk_span=%22Regular%22&amp;std_sk_group=%22Team%2C%20Season%22&amp;std_sk_type=%22Rates%22&amp;dir=%22Skater%20Tables%22&amp;std_sk_toi=%2250%22&amp;std_sk_table=%22On-Ice%22&amp;std_sk_team=%22All%22&amp;std_sk_adj=%22Score%20%26%20Venue%22&amp;std_sk_info=null&amp;std_sk_players=%22Pavel%20Buchnevich%22" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://evolving-hockey.com/?_inputs_&amp;std_sk_range=%22Seasons%22&amp;std_sk_pos=%22F%22&amp;std_sk_str=%225v5%22&amp;std_sk_season=%2220192020%22&amp;std_sk_span=%22Regular%22&amp;std_sk_group=%22Team%2C%20Season%22&amp;std_sk_type=%22Rates%22&amp;dir=%22Skater%20Tables%22&amp;std_sk_toi=%2250%22&amp;std_sk_table=%22On-Ice%22&amp;std_sk_team=%22All%22&amp;std_sk_adj=%22Score%20%26%20Venue%22&amp;std_sk_info=null&amp;std_sk_players=%22Pavel%20Buchnevich%22</a>

If we take a look at the league you'll notice that Buchnevich is 30th <em>best</em> in the league at xGF/60 (that's how I knew whatever #'s you were citing were trash) and he was 334th in xGA/60. which I think comes out to 98th worst in the league. However, as an analytical person you know that raw xGA rates don't actually indicate the quality of the Forwards defensive play, they indicate the quality of the defensemen playing behind him...

SO I went to look at RAPM which actually contextualizes xGF/xGA and other components with proper weighting for things like score (leading vs. trailing and by how much) zone starts, quality of competition, home vs. away, playing a back to back vs. not, strength state (5v5 vs. 4v4 vs 3v3) and then displays those over a standard distribution.

You saw the graph of it with xGF and xGA, i'll circle where you can see them:

<a href="https://ibb.co/0Z0ZtQh" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank"><img src="https://i.ibb.co/q9H95xk/Screen-Shot-2020-04-04-at-10-53-13-AM.png" alt="Screen-Shot-2020-04-04-at-10-53-13-AM"></a>

If you're wondering where those figures rate league wide:
xGF: 9th
xGA: 89th
xG +/-: 9th
quite a move up from where he was.

Again, I'm curious....where'd you get your numbers from again?</div></div>

Take the delta of his xGF and his teams xGF, take the delta of his xGA and his teams xGA. If you are wondering how to find them, feel free to look at EH, that is a very nice site for things like this.
Take the difference between his xGF with the team and the teams without him, and he is, again, bottom 50 in the NHL. This means that the team is expected to score more goals without him than with him. With a top heavy team like new york, you'd expect that. Panarin, Zibanejad, Kreider etc will be the biggest threats, and will likely throw in the outliers, so I can see why you may not like it offensively.

However, you said yourself, Buch is bottom 60 in xGA. When you compare that to what the Rangers are without Buchnevich, they numbers are so contrasting that saying he is one of the worst analytical defensive players in the league is not out of question. You can find the team numbers on www.chartinghockey.com, or find a comparison on corsica.hockey. Both extraordinary sites for analytics. However, neither has the evidence to contradict what Buch's liabilitys are defensively. Also looking at raw stats.... he was on the ice for more goals against than all but 5 of his teammates? (Per Fox Sports, very good for the depth base stats. All of this combined contradicts the RAPM stats. You can say it's based on his ice time, but it's not like it's a limited sample size, or have you forgotten what that means?

So tell me again, where was my credibility in question?
Forum: Armchair-GMSun at 8:41 am
Sujet: I got really bored
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>I'm not sure you noticed, but the Oilers were the 5th best team in the league since December 30th. They need to solidify their forward corps, their defense is fine as is. The change December 31st? Yamamoto was brought up and it allowed Tippett to split McDavid and Draisaitl. More work is needed still.</div></div>

I'm not sure if you noticed, but the reason they were the 5th best team was their forward core. Draisaitl and McDavid were pretty much outscoring teams all game long. It's why EDM rank top 5 in goals for. Plus, semi-decent goaltending from Smith and Koskinen. Their defence has still been bad from an analytical standpoint. It gets penned in. I don't know if you've noticed this, but offence wins games. It does, defence wins championships. Look at ROR Pietrangelo, Parayko and the blues. Letang, Sid and the Pens. Carlson, Backstrom, Kempny, Orlov and the Capitals. Keith Seabrook, Toews and the Blackhawks, Doughty, Martinez, Muzzin Kopitar and the kings. Bergeron, Chara and the Bruins. Edmonton don't have that. It's common knowledge that defensively McDavid is horrific and that offensively he is spectacular. RNH leaves defensive question marks, Draisaitl spends more time on the wing than down the middle. Edmonton don't have that top core defence and they don't have that defensive forward to help push things along either. Even if you just look at last years final 4. Carolina, known for a great D core, Jordan Staal is a great 2 way player, that's common knowledge. San Jose, Karlsson Vlasic and Burns hadn't suddenly aged 30 years in a day and Couture is a solid 2 way center. St Louis I've mentioned, and Boston with McAvoy, Chara, Krug, and so on. Edmonton's D isn't that calibre and it needs improvement if they want to win the cup. This is a deal that works for them because it is an upgrade. As for Carolina, it allows them to balance out their loaded D core with someone who likely hits the FA market at the end of the year anyway. It works both ways, I've put a lot of thought and number crunching into this trade.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 2:19 pm
Sujet: NYR trade 20-21 team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sagecoll</b></div><div>Addressing some points here... particularly looking at some points you made regarding finishing, defensive numbers, etc.

<a href="https://ibb.co/jw248xh" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank"><img src="https://i.ibb.co/PWnCrbx/Screen-Shot-2020-04-04-at-10-54-42-AM.png" alt="Screen-Shot-2020-04-04-at-10-54-42-AM"></a>
<a href="https://ibb.co/8c9wSRZ" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank"><img src="https://i.ibb.co/4dpL5Dr/Screen-Shot-2020-04-04-at-10-53-13-AM.png" alt="Screen-Shot-2020-04-04-at-10-53-13-AM"></a>
<a href="https://ibb.co/b1SBQcJ" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank"><img src="https://i.ibb.co/F6SwmRV/Screen-Shot-2020-04-04-at-11-14-32-AM.png" alt="Screen-Shot-2020-04-04-at-11-14-32-AM"></a>

Also frankly I'm not sure Drury is even a top 5 prospect in the Carolina organization. Personally I have Suzuki, Honka, Puistola, Bean, and Rees ahead of him. A lot of people also have Bokk ahead of him. But it's weird that some Canes fans haven't connected the dots that it's really Abruzzese driving the Harvard offense that's pushing Drury's point total. He's contributed on like 80% of Drury's points lol.</div></div>

Some interesting graphs, yet no numbers. You refuse to acknowledge that the rangers have better transitional numbers without buch, as well as give up more goals with Buch on the ice. Buch has a dx_GA that is just not good. He's also got some fairly scary offensive numbers if you take away Kreider Panarin and Mika Z. Like his totals just dissipate. This is the Strome argument all over again. The aspects he's good for are where Carolina are already strong.

As for the point on Drury, you could not be further from the truth. Carolina's top 5 prospects rank Bean, Bokk, Drury, Rees, Puistola. Honka is a great player, but he's been.... questionable. Suzuki played like 25 games this year due to a scary eye injury, his talent level at this point is still in question. People don't understand looking at Drury's "analytics" (quotations around analytics because... there is a very scarce amount) his underlying numbers are better than Abruzzese. Not to mention that Drury is also a C prospect. Those are very sparse, especially ones with the quality of someone like Drury. He's not gonna be the new Necas, but he could very well fill the shoes of someone like a Jordan Staal in the Canes organisation. A top 6 C who's good going both ways.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 6:29 am
Sujet: NYR trade 20-21 team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sagecoll</b></div><div>that's basically what Zucker got...i wouldn't call it very good. At best, fair. Buch's analytics are off the charts.</div></div>

I am the biggest analytical head on the website, what are you looking at? Using EH, his defensive numbers are average at best, going forward his numbers improve, but his finish isn't there. There's no way Carolina move someone as promising as Drury for a middle 6 winger like Buch when they have so many middle six wingers coming through the system. He will NEVER knock TT off that top line, because TT was around the PPG mark and he and Aho live in each others heads. Buch is a fine player, nothing against him, but there is no way, no how Carolina offer anything like this and no way they have interest in a reject from a team below them in the standings.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 12:37 pm
Sujet: If Goaltending is an issue
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sala91</b></div><div>Montreal already have many longterm options for the left side on the second and third pairing : Mete, Romanov, Struble (who is not a mediocre prospect), and a few others. Fleury is clearly not an upgrade on Mete and they need to make space for Romanov. I don't see them giving a top asset unless they receive a needed one. Skjei is a fine second pairing D, but he is not suddenly worth more, like a ticket for Lafreniere. You even ask them to take two players needing protection in the expansion draft next year while getting three exempt. You also ask them to trade a first round pick while the draft is in Montreal. Many reasons make it a uninteresting move for Mtl.</div></div>

Fleury is an upgrade on Mete, and on Kulak. Romanov is the only one who causes a problem here. Skjei is better than Chiarot, Fleury is better than Chiarot. Fleury is also young enough to continue to develop. He's had an incredible season, and he's still getting better. Romonov can slot in as the 2LD by the time Skjei is coming up for a new contract, and it allows the Fleury brothers to play together. Fleury and Skjei are both long term cost controlled upgraded on what Montreal has to offer.