*The Sick Podcast with Tony Marinaro was awesome last night if you get a chance the episode is worth a listen. What was discussed is largely what inspired this post.
So we finally know we are nor getting a Connor of our very own. At least we didn't fall in the draft, and at least he went to a franchise that is going to be awful in spite of having him. We're gonna get a really great forward at #5 regardless and I think it will be Will Smith provided Hughes actually wants him. He is repped by Quartexx (Hughes' old firm), and Hughes coached him. Basically Hughes has inside information on the player, so if he does or does not draft him, it will be one of the "best informed" picks by a GM of all time.
I was surprised to hear all these amateur scouts talking about the Habs prospect pool, which I see as rather deep. Would it surprise you to hear that Simon "Snake" Boisvert made disparaging remarks about the following players:
Kidney - Career AHL'er in his opinion
Roy - Too slow for the top 6, not well rounded enough for the bottom 6
Mailloux - Tweener or maybe 3rd pair defensemen
Struble - Tweener or AHL defensemen
Farrell - Does not like him, would package him in a trade if he could
Hutson - Says the only way he will be successful is if he turns into Quinn Hughes and he will need to vastly improve his skating to get there. He would trade him now while his perceived value is high
Mesar - Says he is disappointed with the season, but he would hold him for 1 more year to see if he can turn it around
Beck - Says he is a 3rd line Center in the NHL, but if you expect a top 6 Center you will be disappointed
It's been a while since I've heard anyone so down on the Habs prospect pool. It kind of shocked me into realizing 2 things:
1) I really overvalue these players
2) You need to pick the players to gamble on, and trade the ones you are not 100% sure on for "sure things" even if you end up being wrong every now and then
Of the 8 Snake commented on, if I had to pick 4 to "Gamble" on, it would be Hutson, Beck, Mailloux, and Mesar in that order.
That means that Kidney, Roy, Struble, Farrell are all expendable to me, IF AND ONLY IF I can get sure thing players at organizational holes back.
It would be foolish to expect all 8 of these guys to live up to their potential, and some of the ones mentioned hold quite a lot of value in the eyes of other teams.
Case in point: last night I put forward the idea of trading Roy for the 20th OA pick in 2023 and was told by fans of all teams that his value was higher and that I was making a mistake. Perfect then, let me make my mistakes and let everyone profit from my stupidity!
Player who has put in his time in the AHL and has put up decent numbers in his "cup of coffee" with the flames. Gars de chez nous as well which helps since I'm trading Roy in another deal
Habs get a young winger who has not lived up to expectations thus far, but who is primed to take a Dach-like step in the right environment ( the same can be said for Kakko or Laf)
This deal provides cap-relief to take another run, but keeping Kakko, Laf, & Miller is going to be tough going forward and Roy and Kidney will both be NHL-ready in 1-2 years on entry-level deals when the Rags might really be in tough with the cap
Roy had an amazing world Juniors this year and has spent the year working on his 2-way game. Was exceptional in the QMJHL playoffs as well until his team got eliminated in the semi-final
Kidney is a center with 2 consecutive 100+ point seasons in the QMJHL this year he successfully worked hard on attacking the middle of the ice and took on additional defensive responsibility
*Would do the same deal for Lafreniere if the Rags prefer
I really don't know anything about the Habs prospect pool. But I do know there the world of difference between prospects, players playing in the AHL. junior. NCAA, Europe versus TRUE NHL PROSPECTS.
Not saying Tony Marinano is right or wrong, but fans should be more objective of their evaluation of their non NHL prospects. When they were drafted or their stats in other leagues don't mean that much. It's only NHL performance that has any significance to the NHL team.
But good luck to all young men who wish to play in the NHL.
I really don't know anything about the Habs prospect pool. But I do know there the world of difference between prospects, players playing in the AHL. junior. NCAA, Europe versus TRUE NHL PROSPECTS.
Not saying Tony Marinano is right or wrong, but fans should be more objective of their evaluation of their non NHL prospects. When they were drafted or their stats in other leagues don't mean that much. It's only NHL performance that has any significance to the NHL team.
But good luck to all young men who wish to play in the NHL.
For what it's worth Tony never comments on prospects potential, but brings in amateur and pro scouting experts. Last night he had 3 in a row and they each went through their top 10 for the 2023 draft. Show is usually an hour but it was 2:45. Really blew me away.
Everyone was raving about Michkov and how he would have gone first in every draft except the McDavid & Bedard years.
It's more of a respectful decline. Farrell has good potential but Huberdeau and Pelts have become very close, plus they don't need Farrell for Coronato to succeed. I also think Pelts is still the better prospect but we'll see on that
It's more of a respectful decline. Farrell has good potential but Huberdeau and Pelts have become very close, plus they don't need Farrell for Coronato to succeed. I also think Pelts is still the better prospect but we'll see on that
That's how I read it as well. I think Farrell is higher risk, higher reward. He could turn into the next Johnny Hockey and I'll look like a fool.
I really don't know anything about the Habs prospect pool. But I do know there the world of difference between prospects, players playing in the AHL. junior. NCAA, Europe versus TRUE NHL PROSPECTS.
Not saying Tony Marinano is right or wrong, but fans should be more objective of their evaluation of their non NHL prospects. When they were drafted or their stats in other leagues don't mean that much. It's only NHL performance that has any significance to the NHL team.
But good luck to all young men who wish to play in the NHL.
this is really well said IMO. good points all around
great post by the author. enjoyed reading the description and the explanation of the trades. However, I wouldn't give up both kidney and roy for kakko. one or the other plus the second imo
The only way the Rangers trade Lafreniere or Kakko is if the offer blows them away and they get a piece that costs equal/less against the cap and can provide an immediate impact in the NHL. You can disagree if you don't think they are worth it, but the Rangers aren't trading cheap players that can give them middle 6 production at absolute worst.
great post by the author. enjoyed reading the description and the explanation of the trades. However, I wouldn't give up both kidney and roy for kakko. one or the other plus the second imo
Thank you for your interest and kind words.
I know it's a lot, but the theme here is "overpay in potential" for a "sure thing" today.
That's pretty unlikely, Johnny was a 2.0 ppg player as a junior in the NCAA. His production is more in line with like Jimmy Vesey or JT Compher
You are forgetting that Gaudreau played 3 years in Hockey East, Farrell only played 2. Their stats in their 2nd years are very comparable (Farrell even has the edge).
I'm not saying it's gonna happen, but the stats are interesting.
The only way the Rangers trade Lafreniere or Kakko is if the offer blows them away and they get a piece that costs equal/less against the cap and can provide an immediate impact in the NHL. You can disagree if you don't think they are worth it, but the Rangers aren't trading cheap players that can give them middle 6 production at absolute worst.
We'll, this deal certainly does not do that, but I would make the argument that a team like the Rangers can and should try to resign Tarasenko. I know the playoffs did not go as planned, but he's a beast and he would probably take a discount to stay in NY.
So now the deal is Tarasenko, Roy, Kidney & a 2nd for Kakko. Do you do it?
It's more of a respectful decline. Farrell has good potential but Huberdeau and Pelts have become very close, plus they don't need Farrell for Coronato to succeed. I also think Pelts is still the better prospect but we'll see on that
It's a hard trade to evaluate because Pelletier has already proven he is NHL capable. We'd be taking an unnecessary risk unless the upside of Coronato and Farrell paid off huge (which is small IMO)
It's a hard trade to evaluate because Pelletier has already proven he is NHL capable. We'd be taking an unnecessary risk unless the upside of Coronato and Farrell paid off huge (which is small IMO)
A lot of people put way too much stock in minor league synergy. For example we saw last year that Toffoli and Monahan were merely average together despite their connection
A lot of people put way too much stock in minor league synergy. For example we saw last year that Toffoli and Monahan were merely average together despite their connection
Agreed. What works in NCAA doesn't mean it will work in the NHL. Even, in the NHL chemistry ebbs and flows over a season.
Agreed. What works in NCAA doesn't mean it will work in the NHL. Even, in the NHL chemistry ebbs and flows over a season.
I think it's more, just because it worked in the NCAA doesn't mean it can't work even better with other players. For example, Coronato was considered the best forward on team USA at last summers WJC. Farrell being over 20 at the time means he wasn't on that team so it probably implies he can find success with anyone
I think it's more, just because it worked in the NCAA doesn't mean it can't work even better with other players. For example, Coronato was considered the best forward on team USA at last summers WJC. Farrell being over 20 at the time means he wasn't on that team so it probably implies he can find success with anyone
I thought they were notable for sure. Super cynical. He's definitely a strange bird that Snake.
He's a little low on them, but most will underperform habs fans expectations. I expect 2-4 to be legit valuable pieces while the rest are fringe roster guys and depth pieces. Habs fans are taking the ceiling of each of their prospects and treating it like that's what they are certainly going to become
He's a little low on them, but most will underperform habs fans expectations. I expect 2-4 to be legit valuable pieces while the rest are fringe roster guys and depth pieces. Habs fans are taking the ceiling of each of their prospects and treating it like that's what they are certainly going to become
Agreed. Hence this post. Let someone else make that mistake!
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