What the F*** was Tampa thinking

This is even more than I thought we'd get back. I was thinking Jeannot for Foote, B tier prospect, '25 1st(top 10 protected).



This year, he has had one of the biggest presences on the ice in terms of physicality being 4th in hits league-wide. Not bad for a sophomore...

I get chirping other fan bases, you know, the whole rivalry bit and all.

But holy, this is another level.

Me, a leafs fan: so happy Tampa overpaid for a 3rd liner, would way rather have ROR and Accari than Jeannot

also Me, a leafs fan: this guy is going to score 2 goals against us game 7 and be an absolute **** head all series

I understand why you would be in denial, but everybody knows about the TB-TOR 1st round matchup since last december.

Someone needs to check to see if Jeannot has 7 logins to Cap friendly. Lightning gave up a loooooooot for him.

Colton Paul Jeanot is getting me thinking about Goodie Gourde Coleman

What exactly am I in denial about?

Man, makes the Barbashev trade look like a screwing by Vegas.

This trade is unorthodox, which is causing a lot of sticker shock.

The first thing is, Cal Foote doesn't have a lot of value. His status as a former first round pick is irrelevant since he was drafted 6 years ago. He's a 6th-7th defenseman, and is close to a finished product. Had the Lightning shopped him individually, they would have received a late pick for him. Most NHL defensemen of that calibre attract 4th-7th round picks in trades.

The other thing is that the Predators originally asked for two 1st round picks. TBL 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and Foote is worth less than a late 1st. This is the unorthodox part of the trade. Teams usually don't spread out value that way in trades. Instead of a 3rd, 4th, a 5th, and Foote, usually a team might deal a 2nd. If this trade was a 1st+2nd+2nd for Jeannot, there would still be talk that it was an overpayment, but the trade wouldn't look anywhere near as obscene. While it's stupid to trade all your draft picks, it would not be difficult for Tampa to acquire 3-4 late picks by trading away spare parts or trading future picks.

Jeannot as a rental probably attracts a 2nd and a few smaller pieces. In this case, he is an RFA and Tampa retains his rights for at least another season or to flip him as a trade piece. So there is some additional value there. There are rumours that Tampa might look to extend him long term, and that his ask is somewhere in the 2.XXM range long term. In that case, this could end up as a huge win for Tampa. They get an effective top 9 power forward at 800k to improve their lineup. The only roster piece they gave up was a defenseman who was playing replaceable minutes. Then in terms of Jeannot extended at 2.XXM, if he is just a big bodied bottom 6 player, then whatever he is slightly overpaid. If he is anything close to what he showed in the NHL and AHL from 2020-2022, then he will be an absolute steal.

You also have to factor in the age of Tampa's roster and how their competitive window is now. Maximizing the roster this season and next season is 10x more important than 5 or 6 years down the line when those draft picks might figure in. With Tampa's consistent success, those picks are almost certainly going to be near the end of the round. For context, the 2nd that Ottawa gave up for Zaitsev is probably more valuable in theory as a top 45 pick in the upcoming draft than a protected 2025 TBL 1st is.

It's great work by Poile to help restock the cupboards for his successor. There is some risk to it on the Tampa side with the player being a late bloomer who has taken a step back this season, but that's also the only reason they got this kind of player at this cap hit for this trade cost. If Jeannot was a known quantity, he wouldn't be available for this kind of package. Mostly, the unorthodox format of the trade and the overvaluing of Foote based on his status as a first round pick is what caused the sticker shock for this trade.

might as well trade the 2023 6th and 7ths to give your scouts a vacation XD

Barbashev is a UFA. He also doesn't have a replacement level cap hit like Jeannot. That's a lot of the value, Tampa can fit him in their lineup and retain the rights to him to re-sign, or trade and recoup some of the picks. He isn't a pure rental. Add in that he plays a style that is coveted by Cup contenders which Barbashev does not.

The only reason Jeannot was available for this kind of package was the uncertainty around how effective he will be going forward since he is a late bloomer who had an unlikely path to the NHL and took a step back after his breakout season. A 20-30 goal RFA power forward would not be available otherwise for a package of late 1st/2nd/3rds and a bunch of late picks.

This is brutal overpayment if you ask me. Literally something I would do on NHL video games lol

Rip trade market for big third line wingers

The Niederreiter trade makes this even stranger. Nino at least has 18 goals this year and a bit left in the tank. I figured that was fair value for him. It shows that Poile wasn't asking for the moon.

Jeannot is young and had a good year last year. But this is just.... wow.

"How many draft picks do you want for Jeannot?"

"Yes."

This is such a good deal for Nashville. I can't imagine selling higher on player than this. Jeannot is 25, never drafted, had one season where he scored on about 20% of his shots, and Nashville gets 5 picks and a prospect for the guy.

I see a lot of hesitation to say Tampa just flat out got fleeced, but it's all based on reverence for what they have done in the past, but also for the simple reality that they can make this deal, and still go on a run because their roster is excellent. People hate looking wrong, but Tampa doing well in these playoffs doesn't make this less of an overpay. I just don't see how you get to this level of cost for a player like Jeannot. Every team would love to have him on their 4th line, but this was a cost you pay for a big time difference maker, and Jeannot isn't that. Players like Jeannot get overrated a lot, but it's a lot of revisionist history. The story always folds out the same, if Tampa wins, there will be a Jeannot hit that everyone says was "the turning point". In reality, Jeannot just hits so frequently, that at any point Tampa gains momentum, there is a good chance it's a few plays after a Jeannot hit, and everyone will just give him all the credit, but chances it's just two things happening at the same time.

Also, I don't buy the talk about how this is similar to the Coleman, Goodrow and Hagel trades. All those deals got players with low cap hits with term. Also, Coleman and Hagel are significantly more impactful players than Jeannot.

WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Huge W for Nashville. But overpay for Tampa. What’s with all the picks?

Whether or not the value was great, what people have consistently failed to understand with the trades over the last few days is the importance of competitive windows.

Tampa Bay's 2023 and 2024 seasons are a lot more valuable than their 2027-2030 seasons.

Value is not static. It differs from team to team and situation to situation and even season to season for the same team. Tampa is unlikely to accrue anywhere near the amount of value from those pieces as they are from a top 9 power forward with a prorated 800k cap hit during one of the final seasons they can contend with this core.

It also has to be understood how the cap inflates value of pieces, especially at the trade deadline when teams can overload their rosters through taking advantage of banked cap space throughout the season. The return from this trade isn't that far off what the Kings paid for Fiala, who is a legitimate first line star. The difference is that happened in the off season, and the Kings needed 8 million of cap space to cover the acquisition. Before anybody who doesn't read thinks this is me saying Jeannot=Fiala, that isn't what I am saying. I am saying that you can't always compare value at the trade deadline to the off season, because the salary cap plays a big part in inflating the value of useful players at the trade deadline.

Did Brisbois take lessons from Kane on how to gamble

This trade just feels strange compared to the others hes made

As idk Jeannot was good last year but we all knew it was impossible for him to keep up that insanely high shooting percentage and the puck luck he and the preds had last year makes me think this might be the one that bites

Cause even if hes a good forechecker giving up the cupboard for that isnt great. But lets see if he turns into half of what we saw last year its another Coleman, Goodrow, Hagel trade lul

When's the last time we've seen a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th traded by the same team in one trade?

Nashville just robs Tampa

exactly. Trade doesn't work? add another pick, try again. Doesn't work? add another pick, try again.

Oh F it worked? I overpaid...

Dirt cheap, relatively speaking. Never understood why so many went crazy about the Dean return. All those ppl look silly now. TDL prices are always bonkers. That was quite 'fair'