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Wildwinswhen

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Wild du Minnesota
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Forum: Armchair-GM2 juin à 14 h 12
Sujet: Necas Fiala Swap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>Canes don't have the cap to make this work. Also, Fiala should not get the same deal as Svechnikov. Necas isn't a center, let alone a 1st line Center. If he was a 1C, he'd be worth MILES more than Fiala. If you want Suzuki, the pick needs to be dropped a few rounds. Hell, without Suzuki, I doubt the 1st is included. Necas had the worst year of his career, Fiala had the best. Both are likey to not repeat this kind of season. I really don't like this. Fiala's got too many question marks for Carolina. They'll likely take a run at Gaudreau or Forsberg instead. It's only 1-3 million more and is FAR cheaper in terms of assets.</div></div>

I like all of these trades, which I think means there's no way it's going to happen :) So I think the Canes are safe here
Forum: Armchair-GM26 mai à 17 h 27
Sujet: Pinto
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>1- Sanderson
---------------
2- Pinto
3- Greig
---------------
4- JBD
5- Sogaard
6- Jarventie
7- Thomson
---------------
8- Sokolov
9- Kleven
---------------
10- Boucher

Kastelic is more like 15th-18th OA, he was a potential bottom-6 forward, not more

Pinto could be a perennial Selke candidate and JBD "should" be a Top-4 defensive D-man. These 3 guys are in very different tiers.



Kastelic has shown he can play in the NHL and actually be impactful. However, I don't see him be more than a 4th line Center. But you still need these guys. I think a comparable for him is Nate Thompson. Great on faceoffs, good defensively, can even provide a bit of offense

Look at some analysis I did on him a while ago :


<em>Small sample size (16 GP with 9:11 average) but look at this, among skaters who played at least 15 games :

Hits/60 : Kastelic is 5th behind Michael Pezzetta, Ryan Reaves, Liam O'Brien and Reese Johnson

BkS/60 (forwards only) : Kastelic is 8th behind Austin Watson, Nick Bonino, Carter Rowney, Brett Howden, Tyler Motte, Alexei Toropchenko and Parker Kelly

TkA/60 : Kastelic is 3rd behind Mark Stone and Logan Shaw</em></div></div>

Fantastic analysis! Thank you!!
Forum: Armchair-GM26 mai à 10 h 19
Sujet: Pinto
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>IcemanJoe</b></div><div>Russo has speculated they don’t like Addison playing when Dumba and Spurgeon are both playing. That leaves our D core on the small side. If Dumba is gone, Addison slides into that spot (if he earns it of course).

Russo listed off about 4-5 names yesterday, O’Rourke being one of those names. Along with J Pert, Addison, C Lambos, D Hunt, and maybe M Warren. If they sign Middleton to a 3 year extension, that leaves Dumba’s spot as the only top 4 spot available for about
6 D prospects coming up. Middleton maybe be able to play off hand. Or they address that spot later, but we’ve got lots of good D prospects coming and only 1 top 4 spot for them to play, on the right side. That assumes everyone stays healthy too.</div></div>

I don't like guys playing on their off-hand at D and I don't know if Middleton has ever done it before. I like him with Spurgeon alot better.

Also, I think all of those guys are lefties with the exception of Addison. So if he's not the guy at RD, you're forcing a rookie to play off side when they start in the NHL. That's a big ask.
Forum: Armchair-GM26 mai à 1 h 26
Sujet: Pinto
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sens65</b></div><div>Kastelic projects as a very good fourth liner, so if you want him he's yours. Sens fans will be very hesitant to trade JBD and the 7th for Fiala. If we had a contract worked out with him prior to the trade then possibly. The Sens are very weak with RH winger prospects. All we have is Tyler Boucher.</div></div>

By the way, we expect Fiala to want in the 7.5 to 8.5M range. He turned down 6.5M x 3 years last year. So I'm sure he thinks his first UFA year should be more than 6.5 now after he had such a good year. I would expect him to want a 3-4 year deal to get a big contract when he's 29.

He is the type who likes the big lights and attention, so there may be an Ottawa surcharge to get him there. That's why I proposed 8M x 4 years.
Forum: Armchair-GM26 mai à 0 h 58
Sujet: Pinto
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TampaBayLightning22</b></div><div>Shane Pinto and the 7th overall pick, Is grossly over-valuing Kevin Fiala.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Pretty big overpay. Refer to Reinhart trade, should be a bit better than that</div></div>

As I said in the intro, I don't know what Pinto is worth to the Sens. How far off do you see it? Do I need to add a 3rd? Dumba? What would make it even?

Comparing to Reinhart... He got a BUF 1st (before knowing the order, probably projected 10-20) and a goalie prospect who was the Juniors MVP the year before. So.... More than that... That seems like alot, so I think I'm already in the slightly more than that range. No? What do I need to add to make the original trade even?
Forum: Armchair-GM24 mai à 12 h 37
Sujet: How Devils should approach Fiala trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BoredWildFan</b></div><div>I don’t see Fitzgerald going down the path of trying to lowball a guy he used to work closely with in Pittsburgh’s front office.
But, for the sake of argument, let’s say he does.
Billy doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy who would just accept a “whatever I can get” deal. I think Bill plays hardball with Tom by saying “you want him at 3x8? Go ahead and offer sheet him.”
Fiala and his agent would also have to be careful approaching the offseason this way. Bill can always just QO him and sit on it. This would force Kevin into a number of scenarios. 1. Open up extension negotiations with other teams. 2. Elect to go to arbitration. If that were to occur, teams would know the exact price of him on a one year deal, most likely in the 5.5-7.0 mil range, opening up bidding war with 2023 1sts as a starting price. 3. Be prepared to sit the entire 22-23 season (obviously, this wouldn’t be good for either side).

It may not seem like Guerin has any leverage, but he does.</div></div>

And GMBG will use it. He took Fiala to arbitration last year because he didn't like Fiala's ask. I could see us taking him to arbitration again and playing him this year if we don't like the offers
Forum: Armchair-GM21 mai à 10 h 36
Sujet: Guerin is going to give Fiala away
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caerii</b></div><div>Not going to try to convince you Fiala has been good, just gonna add a little extra context.

In 2019-20, Fiala was our best playoff player on a line with Eric Staal.
In 2020-21, Fiala played with Hartman and Johansson, so is it any wonder he didn't produce?
In 2021-22, Fiala played with Boldy and Gaudreau. Gaudreau disappeared even harder than Fiala did, and Boldy LOOKED like a rookie out there.

So we didn't learn anything new that we didn't already know. The only difference is in the playoffs we seem to shift the blame from Guerin and Evason not putting him in a position to succeed, to Fiala. Despite the fact that nothing really changed.

Looking at those seasons statistically from a team perspective, the only guys in the last three years that have outscored Fiala in the playoffs are Spurgeon and Kaprizov. Notably, Zuccarello has one single goal in his three playoff runs here, and less points than Fiala does. And he's the one attached to Kaprizov.

Fiala needs to be better going forward in the playoffs, but we as a fanbase need to stop pretending Fiala is exceedingly bad. He is constantly used as a scapegoat by media (namely Russo) and fans (especially on Twitter, yes I realize it's a cesspool). It's tired and played out.

It is not a tale of two different seasons or players. It is the same player with the same flaws we already knew about. It's not the reason we're losing. If you're looking for the reason we're losing, look at the GM who constructed this roster and the coach who's in charge of deploying it every game.

Fiala will get traded, most likely to a team that recognizes that in order to get the best out of your players, you need to give them something to work with. And he'll continue scoring in the regular season, and he'll produce in the playoffs too with a competent GM and coach.</div></div>

Fiala is a streaky scorer like Nino. He'll get his goals in the regular season because it's a long time, so his streak eventually shows up. But over any one 6 game period he could be either a 0 pts player or a 6 pts player and there's no way to tell which Fiala will show up. But, in the postseason, it's been low scoring Fiala who shows up.

With regard to last year with Hartman and Johannsen. Hartman has scored alot of goals this year with KK on his line. So he's not worthless. To say that Fiala couldn't score last postseason because he was paired with Hartman is just short sighted. Also, Fiala thought he should be paid more than 6.5M this year, so he must think he's worth 8M now. 8M dollar players make their linemates better.

I just don't see that future for him. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

But my main concern was how negative GMBG is about him. That points to a Nino style trade rather than a Zucker style trade (or better) which was my concern
Forum: Armchair-GM20 mai à 20 h 53
Sujet: Guerin is going to give Fiala away
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>wabit</b></div><div>He had 3 assists. All of them came on 3 out of the last 4 goals MN scored in the Playoffs.

He had some awful luck with fluky high sticking penalties. A double minor for the guy lifting Fiala's stink into his own face. A double minor for catching the one guy on the ice without a visor while trying to get his stick unpinned from the boards. A useless matching roughing penalty because the refs had lost control of the game and were trying to get it back.

Fiala was by no means great in the Playoffs, but he wasn't as awful as people are making him out to be either.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>wabit</b></div><div>He had 3 assists. All of them came on 3 out of the last 4 goals MN scored in the Playoffs.

He had some awful luck with fluky high sticking penalties. A double minor for the guy lifting Fiala's stink into his own face. A double minor for catching the one guy on the ice without a visor while trying to get his stick unpinned from the boards. A useless matching roughing penalty because the refs had lost control of the game and were trying to get it back.

Fiala was by no means great in the Playoffs, but he wasn't as awful as people are making him out to be either.</div></div>

All excellent points.
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