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budgeteam

couldnt afford 2nd t
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26 sept. 2021
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Sénateurs d'Ottawa
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Forum: Trade Machine Proposalsven. à 13 h 38
Forum: Trade Machine Proposalsven. à 13 h 28
<strong>The Bobrovsky component</strong>
-Bobrovsky will waive his no trade clause because San Jose will agree to move him in the off season to a team where he might get a shot at starting. If he stays in Florida, he is the backup for the next 3 years.
-With retained salary, San Jose might be able to move him after his signing bonus is paid. Florida doesn't want to do this because they don't want to retain.
-San Jose honors the NMC and makes an agreement in principal to trade Bobrovsky with retained salary to a team he approves in the summer.
-If that is not feasible, San Jose will instead buy him out. Bobrovsky's buyout is much more palatable than Karlsson's. It is only 6 years long instead of 8, and there are only 3 years of big money. The last 3 years are negligible. (6.66 x 3 then 1.66 x 3).
-A buyout would be economically good for Bobrovsky because a majority of his salary is buyout proof. He would only lose 5 million dollars in base salary. Even with his drop in play, he would almost certainly attract a contract that allows him to recoup that. 5M over 3 years means he has to sign a contract greater than 1.67M x 3 years. The odds of him getting a contract in excess of that amount are high.

<strong>The Karlsson component:</strong>
-Karlsson would waive to go to Florida. They are a contender. He also gets a raise via taxes.
-San Jose benefits from not retaining.
-This is a pure cap move for San Jose. They increase their chances of finishing last by getting rid of Karlsson. Once they either buyout or trade Bobrovsky with retention, they free up significant cap that can be leveraged in trades for more assets.

<strong>The Hornqvist component:</strong>
-Hornqvist is in the trade to make it cap compliant.
-Florida retains 41 percent on Hornqvist.
-If San Jose is on Hornqvist's list, they could possibly work with the player to find a suitable trade destination. San Jose could retain half of Hornqvist's remaining cap hit to make him palatable to a contending team as a veteran depth forward.

<strong>The Dell component:</strong>
-Dell is a placeholder. San Jose either sends Florida a contract, or they send a player down to become cap compliant.
-Alternatively, San Jose could send Florida Reimer as a backup. They might have to retain on Reimer. Or the retention on Hornqvist would need to be rejigged.

<strong><em>With all of the above set up, what does Florida have to give San Jose for Karlsson?

Is this closer to a Brent Burns or Pacioretty type situation? Where the return will be minimal. Or is taking Bobrovsky's potential buyout cap hit enough that Florida would have to include a top prospect? Florida does not have a 1st round pick for many years.</em></strong>
Forum: NHL Tradesmer. à 12 h 25
Forum: NHL Tradesmer. à 12 h 18
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>python3504</b></div><div>ok now that the season started who actually won this trade?</div></div>

If Murray can keep up this level of play and stay healthy, it is obviously a huge win for Toronto to get a Vezina caliber goalie at 4.7M x 2 years.

Murray had streaks of very strong play in Ottawa where he would average a .915+ save percentage over multiple games. He would then get hurt, and lose all his momentum. Until he shows he can remain healthy for long stretches of time, I am skeptical about him.

Because Ottawa is a budget team, you have to look at what they gained by proxy. Ottawa paid a 3rd+7th to free up 5.25M this season and 6M next season. They spent 3M of that on Murray's replacement, Cam Talbot. Ironically, Talbot was injured in training camp. Which is what the Senators tried to avoid by moving Murray. Since returning, Talbot has provided more consistent play than Murray did for his entire tenure as a Senator. Similar to Murray, I won't be sold on Talbot until I see a larger sample size of strong play.

Keep in mind, the Senators got Talbot for free. Gustavsson was a sunk cost who was likely to end up on waivers. If anything, he was a detriment to the Senators since he was on a 1-way contract and the Senators have a budget to uphold. With that said, he is playing well in Minnesota as their #2 goalie so it is possible he would have stuck with Ottawa.

If you analyze all the related deals, Toronto traded Mrazek, and the 25th pick for Murray (@ 4.7M) the 38th pick, and a future 3rd and 7th round pick.

Ottawa traded a 3rd, a 7th, Murray, and Gustavsson for Cam Talbot, 2.25M in salary relief, and 6M in salary relief next year.

If Murray keeps playing this way, the Senators are going to regret giving Toronto a franchise goalie. With that said, the likelihood of Murray remaining healthy is low based on his injury history.
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals12 nov. à 15 h 15
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals12 nov. à 14 h 21
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MoxNix</b></div><div>If there was any logic or reason that actually works for Boston and Arizona in that they'd simply trade Reilly + a 3rd to Arizona for Nemeth. Arizona would be getting a better player, one they could flip at the deadline with 50% retained to get another pick and Boston would save $1.3875m cap space if they send Nemeth to Junior (and losing $625k if they don't).

But come on just admit it already the only reason you put this proposal together was to fleece the other 2 teams by getting something for a cap dump with negative value and save Ottawa over 2 million in cap space in the process too. No matter how you try and spin it it heavily favors Ottawa.</div></div>

A 3 way trade accomplishes the same thing but is cheaper for Boston asset wise because Ottawa is kicking the 3rd to Arizona.

Arizona only has 2 retention spots remaining. They aren't going to trade for a player, with the idea that they might get a late pick (if that players game picks up on their team), where they retain on them for 2 seasons straight. That would leave Arizona with only 1 retention spot going forward. Not to mention, Reilly's cap has the same downside that Nemeth's cap has. The real money salary exceeds the cap hit, which will make it more expensive for Arizona to hit the floor next season.

That is why making it a 3-way trade makes sense. All 3 teams have slightly different needs that they cannot meet with a 2-way trade. You can read my original post and see that this reasoning was all outlined.

Mike Reilly went for a late 3rd after playing some of the best hockey of his career. So your idea of him being a major chip at the deadline doesn't really check out.
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals12 nov. à 13 h 46
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MoxNix</b></div><div>Boston isn't gaining 500k cap they're losing 625k cap. Maybe you should check the rest of your numbers. Besides it doesn't matter how you try to spin it Zaitsev is a cap dump. It'll take more than a 3rd just to dump Zaitsev and you certainly won't be getting a useful player in return too.

Give up with the ridiculous rationalizations. All your trade proposals are the same. They heavily favor Ottawa while completely ignoring any inconvenient facts (like other team's needs) and come with a wall of text trying to make a bad trade look good for the other team(s).

I applaud you for the thought and effort you put into your posts but you should think less about fleecing the other team and more about what's actually fair and might work for both teams without all the flawed reasoning attempting to justify a poor trade for the other guys.</div></div>

Capfriendly's chart shows an increase in cap because Arizona has Nemeth in the NHL, and Boston has Reilly buried. Boston would almost certainly bury Nemeth.

Reilly's cap hit is 3M, Nemeth's cap hit is 2.5M.

Nemeth and Zaitsev are both negative value contracts. Arizona is a budget team. They don't care about Zaitsev's cap hit, only his salary. Nemeth and Zaitsev is money in/money out this season. Then they get a 3rd to take on a net of 1M in real cash. That is in line with previous prices they set taking on negative value salary. For example, they get a 2nd+3rd to take on 6M in bad salary over 2 years to take on Nemeth. We are talking about Arizona getting a 3rd to take on an increase of 1M in bad salary.
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals12 nov. à 12 h 23
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MoxNix</b></div><div>Actually Ottawa wins since they get the best player of the lot and gain more than 2 million in cap space too. Arizona and Boston both decline.</div></div>

Ottawa does not care about cap space. They are a budget team. Cap is not an issue for them for at least another 2+ seasons. Their cap is artificially high right now due to having injured players not placed on LTIR.

Read my explanation above that I just posted. This is a great trade for everybody. that takes 3 bad contracts and finds a way to help each team by swapping them.

With Boston, regardless of which player they have, they will be buried. No one is taking Reilly without cap considerations. Boston gives up a 5th to open up 500k in cap space and get a slightly cheaper buyout next year.

Arizona gets a defenseman who is arguably a better fit for their tank. They shed a contract where the salary exceeds the cap hit, which is a huge benefit to them considering they try to operate below the cap floor in real dollars. Contracts like the one Nemeth has next year impede their ability to do that. If anything, Arizona are the biggest winners of this trade when you consider they get the best asset (a 3rd round pick) and the most benefit (losing a contract where salary exceeds cap for a contract at parity with the cap hit).

For Ottawa, they risk giving up a 3rd for a 5th, and ending up in the exact same position they are in now. It's a smart risk to take given how well Reilly played under DJ Smith in the past, but I am surprised you see this as Ottawa getting the win. They very well could end up with Reilly continuing to play bad for Ottawa, and also out an asset for their trouble.

Boston and Arizona both get definite wins, because those teams winning the trade isn't dependent on anything happening after the trade. Boston gets cap space, Arizona gets a 3rd round pick and a contract where the salary doesn't exceed the cap hit. Ottawa takes all the risk in the deal, so obviously the potential reward for them is higher.
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals12 nov. à 12 h 17
<img class="for_img" src="https://i.imgur.com/rpJ1ui9.png" alt="rpJ1ui9.png">

This trade helps all 3 teams accomplish their goals through trading negative value contracts to each other.

<strong>Arizona:</strong>
-Nemeth vs Zaitsev makes no difference to Arizona. In fact, Zaitsev might even be an upgrade for them because he can eat up big minutes, and not do a good enough job to disrupt their tank.
-More importantly, they get a 3rd round pick for increasing their salary next season by 1M.
-Even more importantly, they actually save money next season by swapping Zaitsev for Nemeth. Even know Zaitsev has a higher salary, his salary is at parity with his cap hit (4.5/4.5). Nemeth's salary is 1M more than his cap hit (3.5M salary vs 2.5M cap hit). This means that they have to pay more to hit the floor with Nemeth in their organization than with Zaitsev. That is major attraction of this deal for them. They shed a contract where the salary exceeds the cap hit.

<strong>Ottawa:</strong>
-Ottawa is gridlocked due to its budget. The league as a whole is gridlocked because of the salary cap. They need to improve their defence, and they don't have a lot of options. Reilly is not a saviour, but he was a solid #5 D in DJ Smith's system.
-This is a close to salary-neutral move for Ottawa (+250k this season, -500k next season).
-This is close to an asset-neutral move for Ottawa. They downgrade a future 3rd for a current 5th. That is not a huge cost.

<strong>Boston:</strong>
-This is purely a cap move for Boston. Nobody wants Reilly without Boston taking back cap.
-Boston pays a 5th round pick to gain 500k in cap space.
-Additionally, Nemeth's buyout in the off season is slightly cheaper than Reilly's.


Even if the assets (3rd to ARZ, 5th to OTT) are slightly off value wise. The premise of the trade is what matters.
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals10 nov. à 18 h 48
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GDubb2Shiesty</b></div><div>Brannstrom is actually playing quite well this year so im going to assume you don't watch sens games. By no means has he lived up to that 15th overall potential, but he has been playing well this year. There is a slivering hope that he is an extremely late bloomer like Tage Thompson but Branny has been playing like a top 4d this year.</div></div>

His play is overrated by Senators fans.

He is playing well in a role as a sheltered #6D. The praise he gets reminds me of when Wideman was playing well in a similar role, and people thought he was a top 4D because he looked good playing minimal minutes against easy competition.

Brannstrom has not been playing like a top 4D. He has actually seen his role completely scaled back. That is part of the reason why he is playing better and is more engaged. He is being deployed as a sheltered bottom pairing D, and because of it, he looks better than when he was deployed as a top 4D last year. You also have to consider that the Senators have one of the worst d-cores in the league. Brannstrom would not crack the lineup on most teams.

He is probably more valuable than he was last year as an asset, because if a team needs a D-man to use on one of their powerplays they might look at what Brannstrom is doing this year and feel that they can play him for 12-14 minutes at ES in a sheltered role. Last year, outside of some exceptions, he looked like he didn't belong at all. The Senators might luck into getting a 4th-7th round pick for him at the trade deadline if they decide they don't want to qualify him.
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals8 nov. à 14 h 16
*Note: Arizona retains the 50 percent on O'Reilly before sending him to Ottawa. Not St. Louis.
1) Ryan O'Reilly @ 7.5M cap/1.0M salary to ARZ for Nick Ritchie @ 2.5M cap/3.3M salary.
2) Ryan O'Reilly @ 3.75M cap/500k salary from ARZ to OTT for 2023 4th Round Pick+2024 2nd Round Pick

-Ryan O'Reilly does not have any trade protection.
-He is having a rough start. St.Louis would benefit from a change of scenery move.
-They likely don't intend on re-signing Ryan O'Reilly due to age, fit, and cap.
-Despite Ryan O'Reilly's reputation as a star, until proven otherwise it is a buyer's market for any player with cap. Ottawa got a 2nd for Connor Brown, Columbus got a 3rd+4th for Bjorkstrand, Pittsburgh got a 3rd and Ty Smith for Marino, etc, etc. A 2nd for Ryan O'Reilly is an appropriate return.
-Friedman has linked STL to Nick Ritchie.
-STL upgrades at forward (based on current performance). They don't care about who is better long term.
-Ottawa buys low on a player who could help improve their depth after the Norris injury. Because ROR is half-retained, even if he doesn't improve his performance, they should be able to recoup their draft pick by flipping him at the trade deadline. That is assuming they don't keep him as an own rental.
-Arizona retains on Ryan O'Reilly in order to buy cheap cap space to keep them over the floor in the event they sell off other players. Ryan O'Reilly's base salary is 1M. Half retained means Arizona pays 500k for a 3.75M cap cushion. They also shed Ritchie's 3.3M salary which was only against a 2.5M cap cushion.
-For the retention, Arizona fets a 4th round pick. This seems to be the typical payment for teams to retain small real money amounts as third teams either mid-season or at the trade deadline.
-People will raise an eyebrow at Ritchie being as valuable as ROR. Ritchie is on a 54 goal pace so far in his last 34 games with Arizona. It is a small sample size, and there is always a grain of salt that is needed when players put up goals or points on a rebuilding team. Someone has to score. With that said, that's why he's available for a 2nd, and not a 1st. Arizona gets their 2nd for Ritchie, St.Louis shakes things up and frees up cap space, and Ottawa fixes their current center depth issues.
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals8 nov. à 12 h 16
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals7 nov. à 19 h 15
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals7 nov. à 15 h 58
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>So the cost to acquire Lafreniere would basically be :

- 7th OA pick
- 10th OA pick
- 39th OA pick
- 2nd round pick
- 3rd round pick

That is a lot for a guy who hasn't proved his draft status was legit</div></div>

That is like saying the cost of acquiring Zack Sanford was the 11th overall pick.

Debrincat will be worth less than they paid if the Senators trade him at either of the next trade deadlines, or in the 2023 off season. They paid for 2 years of team control, not 1. In addition, so far he isn't scoring like he was in Chicago. He will still be seen as a star, but I think his value will be lower with that dynamic. Unless a deal with an extension is made, he's probably worth a mid to late 1st, and one or two B or C level pieces.

The Senators probably value Boucher like a 1st round talent, but not like a top 10 talent. The 2021 draft was a strange draft value wise, because scouting was fragmented and players did not play their standard schedules. We're assuming the Rangers also value Boucher highly, even if the rest of the league might not.

You have to keep in mind that Lafreniere was one of the most hyped 1st overall picks of the last decade. He wasn't McDavid or Matthews, but he was probably near the top of that next tier. Even if he doesn't breakout scoring wise this season, still averaged close to 20 goals his first two seasons. He's got a style of play that would fit right in with what the Senators have built. It would also be a marketing homerun given the makeup of Ottawa, and the downtown arena being so accessible to major French population centers like Orleans and Gatineau. He's the biggest name Francophone player to come to the league in a long time.

Debrincat 1 year rental return (1st ++), Boucher, and a 2nd for Lafreniere. That is not an overpayment based on Lafreniere's stature and play so far. The only reason they would get him at that price would be due to him not living up to his draft billing. It's certainly not cheap and might be an ill advised move. But I cannot see the Rangers moving him for anything other than a great return. He's not Nolan Patrick bad. He's already basically a 2nd line winger at the age of 21, and that's seen as a disappointment.
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals6 nov. à 12 h 5
<strong>RANGERS</strong>
-The Rangers acquire Debrincat with the intention of using him as a rental.
-Because he has 1 RFA year left after this season, they can flip his RFA rights at the draft for a 1st round pick and a few other pieces. They will not be able to afford his 8-10 million dollar extension, but his RFA status will allow them to rent him for a playoff run before flipping him to subsidize the cost of acquiring both him and Kane.
-The Rangers had Tyler Boucher in the top 15 of their 2021 draft. Their current regime values size and grit. We will assume that like the Senators, they value Boucher like a 1st round pick, even if that isn’t in line with how the rest of the league might see him.
-The Blackhawks will retain half of Patrick Kane’s cap hit and trade him to Ottawa. Ottawa will retain half of Kane’s remaining cap hit and send him to New York. This will put New York within a few thousand dollars of the cap ceiling. If they send a player down, they can become compliant.
-Reaves is sent to Ottawa to balance out the cap. Alternatively, Chytil could go to Ottawa or Chicago.
-If we assume the Rangers get a 1st/2nd/3rd for Debrincat at the draft, they basically traded Lafreniere+Kakko for Kane (Rental)+Debrincat (Rental)+Boucher+2nd+3rd. Maybe they extend Kane in the summer if he wants to take a discount, and they can work out the cap gymnastics. That is not a guarantee though.

<strong>Senators</strong>
-We will assume that Ottawa was unable to come to terms with Debrincat.
-We will also assume Ottawa is in the bottom 5-10 teams at the trade deadline.
-That gives Ottawa incentive to move on from Debrincat and recoup the 7th+39th+3rd in value that he cost last off season.
-Ottawa’s 2nd round pick is going to be in the top 40, so it will be a high pick.

<strong>Blackhawks</strong>
-Chicago gets a playoff 1st, a high 2nd, and Kakko in exchange for Patrick Kane as a rental.
-Kakko has failed to grow into a star, and is likely going to be a solid middle 6 forward for many years to come. He is not worth anywhere near his original draft position from four years ago.
-Giroux is a good comparable floor for what Kane should go for as a rental. Kane is the better player, but GIroux is the last big time forward to be traded at the deadline.
-Giroux went for Tippett, a 1st, and a 3rd. Kakko, a 1st, and a very high 2nd is a much better package than that.
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals4 nov. à 13 h 36
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MoxNix</b></div><div>I'd agree that due to age and contract Boucher is worth more than Fischer but Boucher for Fischer straight up is a lot closer to reality than what was proposed here. Formenten's negative value is that bad.</div></div>

The point is that even if the league views both Boucher and Fischer as being worth a 3rd-6th round pick, the Senators don't view Boucher that way.

Value is not static. Especially with prospects. It varies from team to team. That is why it draft lists can be so different. It is also why it usually makes more sense to trade a draft pick than a prospect. It is not always efficient to trade a prospect, because both sides have to have the same evaluation of the value of the prospect.

The 2021 draft was unique. I don't think the Senators value Boucher as a top 10 talent, but I think they value him much higher than say a 3rd round pick. They also have no reason to trade him, because he brings a very unique element to the table that they won't find anywhere else. There are very few enforcers left in the game because the average level of skill is so high that teams cannot risk the liability of having an enforcer on the ice. It's the reason why Ryan Reaves was so valuable a few years ago relative to his level of production and play. Ryan Reaves continues to get inflated contracts relative to his level of play (8-10 minutes a night, 5-20 points a season) because he can play NHL hockey at a 4th line skill level as a physical presence and an enforcer. The Senators badly need more of a physical presence in their lineup going forward. Given the complexity of the 2021 draft, if Boucher turns into a Ryan Reaves bottom 6 type who plays for the Senators for 10 years, I think the Senators staff will be very happy with that pick. That's a difficult piece to get. If he turns into anything better than that, like a middle 6 forward, that pick is a home run.

In short, Boucher is a lot more important to Ottawa than whatever the average value of a prospect with his on ice resume is because he brings a very unique physical presence. Ottawa badly needs that.