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budgeteam

couldnt afford 2nd t
Membre depuis
26 sept. 2021
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Sénateurs d'Ottawa
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Coyotes de l'Arizona
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Forum: Trade Machine Proposals10 janv. à 18 h 48
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals19 déc. 2023 à 17 h 13
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals26 oct. 2023 à 23 h 44
Forum: NHL Signings29 sept. 2023 à 14 h 12
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals26 sept. 2023 à 13 h 25
Ignore the draft picks. The trade machine kept giving me an error with Ellis in any trade.

The trade is:
M. Joseph (3 x 3M)

for

R. Ellis (4 x 6.25M) (LTIRetired)

This is similar to Dadonov for Weber. LTIR is a massive competitive handicap. Despite the common misconception on fan forums, it is not the same as "free" cap space. Having a long-term LTIR contract is a massive headache. The Senators are backed into a corner and do not want to give up a 1st round pick, so they take back an LTIRetired player for the short term benefit of getting Pinto signed. It doesn't hurt the Senators this season since they will be right at the 83.5M cap ceiling. With that said, it will likely hurt them sometime in the next four years.

The Flyers get out of LTI and free up additional cap space which can be used at the trade deadline to facilitate trades as a third team, or can be used to acquire cap dumps for draft picks. The rumour is that they like Joseph as a player, but want a major asset to take him. Ottawa taking Ellis is that major asset.

This trade heavily favours Philadelphia, and I highly doubt the Senators would do this unless they had no other option. It would almost be preferably to give up a protected 1st or Boucher and wipe their hands from the cap issues. Acquiring a big money LTIRetired contract with 4 years remaining will cause headaches down the line and the Ellis contract would likely cost more to move in terms of picks/prospects next year than the Joseph one does now.

The big difference between this contract and the Weber contract is that the Weber contract was owed very little real money (a few hundred k per season after insurance). That made it easy for the Knights to eventually dump. Ellis is owed a lot of money. We also don't know if he is insured. Even if he is insured, he will still be owed seven figures per season, which would not be easy to find a taker for in the future if the Senators want to get out of LTI.
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals25 sept. 2023 à 17 h 22
Forum: NHL Signings22 sept. 2023 à 13 h 10
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CSStrowbridge</b></div><div>There's a limit to the number of contracts a team can have and I'm not sure why a team would use one of its six remaining contract slots on this player.</div></div>

The Senators only had 5 picks in the 2023 draft. Most of those were in the 7th round. Their earliest pick was in the 4th round. Additionally, they do not have a deep prospect pool. For a team that has come out of a long rebuild, they did not accrue the same level of prospects that most other teams do. They averaged about 7 picks per draft since the rebuild started in 2018. So it isn't as if the rebuild allowed them to restock the cupboards by all that much. They did an exceptional job at drafting a core of top-end players like Stutzle, Sanderson, Tkachuk, etc - but did not build up as much organizational depth as would usually be expected in a successful rebuild.

This is because they were unable to capitalize on their cap space due to the combination of a restrictive budget, and an owner who needed cash flow through ticket sales. Meaning, they couldn't go scorched earth. They had to make trades like a 2nd round pick for Derek Stepan, or make moves like holding on to Mark Stone and Matt Duchene throughout the season rather than trading them at the draft in their contract year, when they likely would have commanded the biggest return.

The short of it is, they are unlikely to have issues with their contract limit during the 3 year period of this contract because they simply don't have a higher-than-normal amount of players who will come from the reserve list and command ELCs. The Senators have nobody on their reserve list to sign until 2025.

On a side note, this is not a random signing. Toure played in Carleton-Place and Hawkesbury. Basically, in the Senators backyard. Who knows what his Junior career might have looked like if things weren't so fragmented due to COVID. Had the 2020-21 season not been cancelled, perhaps he would have ended up in the CHL earlier, and by extension maybe he ends up drafted. He is a late bloomer. It's a free 7th round pick basically.
Forum: Armchair-GM22 sept. 2023 à 10 h 3
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>I agree that we can afford to trade Brannstrom because Kleven is coming up and fits more the team plans

However I disagree that he'd have negative value right now, his metrics last season were more than excellent, they have shown that he was actually too good for a 3rd pairing. And he proved it when Chabot was injured as he looked even better in games where he played more minutes

Did you know that he has averaged 24 pts per 82 games over the last 3 seasons, since he was 21 y/o? If he just adds a little bit offense he would become a very hot commodity as he just turned 24 y/o and is still on his RFA years

Pearson on the other hand only played 14 games last season and didn't have great production in the last 3 seasons. He's not very good defensively so he has to produces to have value</div></div>

The issue is that we are in the worst time all season to dump cap space. Less than a third of the league have the cap flexibility to add a 2M player. Out of those 10 or so teams, a few of them are budget teams. Which means even if they have the cap, they do not have the spending to back it up.

A team would give up an asset for Brannstrom at the trade deadline, since they could acquire him as either a rental (by not qualifying him) or a long term piece, and it is easier to fit in cap at the deadline. I don't think there would be a market for Brannstrom (or Kubalik for that matter) right now without cap coming back, because cap is too valuable and scarce. Cap coming back defeats the point, unless it is LTIRetired players that can be placed on LTIR to raise the Senators ceiling once they hit 83.4XX.

The above is the thinking behind Brannstrom and the ARZ trade. Yes, it would be much easier if it could just be Brannstrom to whoever for a draft pick, I just don't think that's likely.
Forum: Armchair-GM21 sept. 2023 à 11 h 55
Forum: Armchair-GM20 sept. 2023 à 20 h 34
Forum: Armchair-GM20 sept. 2023 à 16 h 28
Forum: Armchair-GM20 sept. 2023 à 16 h 22
The point of this 21 player roster is to get the Senators temporarily up to as close to 83.5M as possible before placing Voracek and Little on LTIR. Ignore the actual line combos, I don't intend to decide who will play where.

1 - The Senators trade Brannstrom to Arizona. Ideally, the Senators could trade Brannstrom somewhere for a late pick and keep it simple, but I don't think there would be a market for that. The idea behind the trade is that the Senators take two insured LTIR contracts from the Coyotes, which makes Brannstrom a cash in/cash out acquisition. Soderstrom does come back to Ottawa, but he is not integral to the trade. It can be a different depth defender, or no defender at all with a mid-to-late draft pick instead, with the Senators raiding PTOs for a defenseman. The entire point of the trade is to get rid of Brannstrom's cap hit in exchange for LTIR contracts. Given how close the Senators will be to the cap ceiling, there are less consequences to going into LTIR since they will have so little cap space to bank going into the deadline anyways.

2 - Joseph will be sent to the minors. The Senators need the 1.125M in cap relief and he played his way off the team last year.

3 - Forsberg will start in the minors. He is very unlikely to be claimed because of his term, cap hit, and injury history. This will give Forsberg starting time in Belleville to get his game back on point after suffering a double-knee injury last year. It is also essential in order to free up cap space for Pinto. The difference between Sogaard and Forsberg is 200k. If Forsberg is claimed, that isn't the worst problem to have since Sogaard is ready to play 20-30 NHL games a year, but he almost certainly won't be claimed.

4 - I opted to send down Kelly (waiver eligible) and Soderstrom (waiver-exempt), and recall Jarventie (waiver-exempt). The purpose being that gets the Senators within a few hundred dollars of the cap ceiling so that when they place Voracek and Little on LTIR, they get the highest possible cap ceiling under LTIR. They can then send Jarventie back down and recall Soderstrom, or do whatever other tweaks they need to do.

5 - Depending on who makes the team in each depth spot, they may have to place different depth players on the opening night lineup to maximize LTIR.